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Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone...

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Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment and excessions of the standard Transport versus local Rural sources versus urban
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Page 1: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Western Regional Ozone Issues

Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated

ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment and excessions of

the standard Transport versus local Rural sources versus urban

Page 2: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

1995 Forest Ozone Paper

Bohm, McCune & Vandetta, JAWMA, June 1995 published two papers identifying impact on rural Western Forests from transport, non-urban ozone formation or tropospheric reservoir downward mixing

Page 3: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Observations and Concerns

Nationally, 1-hour ozone levels have declined over the past 20 years as VOC and NOx emissions have been reduced

Many areas met the 1-hour standard AND…

Page 4: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

National Trends

National 8-hour ozone trends show a 14% decrease in composite 4th maximum levels over the past 20 years

However:– Trends over the past 10 years show a 4%

ozone increase while a subset of meteorologically adjusted sites show no change even with decreasing VOCs

Page 5: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Regional Trends

The Pacific Southwest – LA area- indicates substantial improvements in 8-hour ozone over the past twenty years

BUT- the Pacific Northwest indicates ozone levels are increasing

AND- trends at individual more rural locations show mixed trends over the past ten years

Page 6: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Western Emissions and Non-Attainment Texas and California rank #1 and #2 for

total Western Emissions of VOC’s and NOx

There are only two other Western N/A areas with substantially lower VOC and NOx emissions

Other Western States have comparable emissions but meet the standards

Page 7: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Emissions & Rank of Western States With Ozone Issues

State Western Rank

1996 NEI

NOx TPY VOC TPY

Texas 1 2,202,935 1,451,353

California 2 1,556,374 1,213,033

Arizona 3/5 463,034 312,039

Colorado 4/6 425,539 298,347

New Mexico

6/8 324,939 155,835

Page 8: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Western Non-Attainment Areas

Page 9: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Western Non-Attainment Areas

Page 10: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Threatened Non-attainment Areas of Colorado

8-hour Ozone --- 4th Max.Northern Colorado

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

pp

m

RMNP Ft. Collins Greeley Weld Co. Tower

Page 11: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Rural Ozone VS Urban

8-hour Ozone --- 4th Max.Southern Colorado

0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

pp

m

Colo. Spgs.-Tejon Colo. Spgs.-Academy

Page 12: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Other rural trends?

8-hour Ozone --- 3-year Avg. of 4th Max.Southwestern Colorado

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

pp

m

Ute-Ignacio Ute-Hwy. 550 MVNP

thru7/23

Standard

Page 13: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

8-hour Ozone --- 3-year Avg. of 4th Max.Denver metro area (west)

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.10019

92

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

pp

m

Chatfield Welch Rocky Flats-N NREL

thru8/31

Standard

Denver High Station Trend

Page 14: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

8-hour Ozone --- 3-year Avg. of 4th Max.Denver metro area (core)

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.10019

92

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

pp

m

CAMP Carriage Arvada

thru8/31

Standard

Denver Core Site Trend

Page 15: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

8-hour Ozone --- 3-year Avg. of 4th Max.Denver metro area (north and south)

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

Year

pp

m

Welby Highland S. Bldr. Ck. Boulder

thru8/31

Standard

Denver North South Trends

Page 16: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Episodes and Background

Urban Denver ozone once thought to be isolated to the dynamics of front range emissions, topography and photochemistry

Current analysis indicates episodes of high ozone can be a combination of long range transported ozone mixed with rural and urban components

Page 17: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Back Trajectory Analysis- AQI 119- NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

Page 18: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Emissions VOC and NOx

Front range emissions have a substantial local source component

Statewide VOC emissions are dominated by biogenic sources

Future emissions are expected to decline only slightly

Page 19: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

2002 Denver Metro and Statewide NOx EI with Biogenicand Wildfire Emissions

Point Sources26 %

Area Sources6 %

Non-Road (exhaust)22 %

M obile Sources (exhaus t)36 %

Biogenic8 %

W i ldfire2 %

D env er EAC -2 002 N itrogen Oxides (NOx ) Em is sions fo r th e D e nver Area + We ld C oun ty+ B io genic Em iss ion s and Wi ld fire

(To ta l N Ox= 407 tp d)

Point S ources28 %

Area Sources5 %

Non-Road (ex haust)15 %

M obile Sources (ex haus t)26 %

Biogenic22 %

W i ldfire3 %

D enve r EAC -2 002 Sta tew ide N itrogen Oxides (N Ox ) Em is sions+ Biogenic Em is sions and W ild fi re

(Tota l N Ox= 1159 tpd)

Page 20: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

2002 Denver Metro and Statewide VOC

EI with Biogenic Emissions

Point Sources7 %

Point Sources-F lash15 %

Area Sources11 %

N on-R oad (exhaust)7 %

N on-R oad (evaporative)1 %

M obile Sources (exhaust)9 %

M obile Sources (evaporative)8 %

B iogenic43 %

D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 2 H yd ro ca rb o n Em issio n s fo r th e D e n ve r A re a + W e ld C o u n ty w ith B iog e n ic Em issio n s

(To ta l H C =8 9 3 tp d )

Point Sources2 %

Point Sources-F lash2 %

Area Sources3 %

N on-R oad (exhaust)2 %N on-R oad (evaporative)0 %

M obile Sources (exhaust)2 %

M obile Sources (evaporative)2 %

B iogenic88 %

D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 2 S ta te w id e H yd ro ca rb o n Em issio n s+ B io g e n ic Em issio n s a n d W ild fire

(To ta l H C = 7 3 7 8 tp d )

Page 21: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

Existing O&G Sources in the San Juan Basin 22,500 existing

sources- VOC’s and NOx

11,000 proposed new O&G sources

Page 22: Western Regional Ozone Issues Observations and concerns Changing perspective- not all isolated ozone issues Trends in Colorado areas Near non-attainment.

New Mexico Ozone Task Force

Only other Early Action Compact area of the West

Recognized signs of possible ozone problems

Establishes a stepping stone for coordination of multi-State or Interstate ozone issue


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