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WGI: Overview

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Working Group I of IPCC Overview Dr. Roxana Bojariu Lead Author in WG I of AR5 National Meteorological Administration (Bucharest, Romania)
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Page 1: WGI: Overview

Working Group I of IPCCOverview

Dr. Roxana BojariuLead Author in WG I of AR5 National Meteorological Administration (Bucharest, Romania)

Page 2: WGI: Overview

Motivation - the role of WG I of IPCC The Structure of WG I Report of IPCC AR5 Key findings in WG I Report New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC Next steps

Page 3: WGI: Overview

Motivation - the role of WG I of IPCC In a changing world we need to speed up the

knowledge generation and transfer to serve society in its mitigations and adaptation efforts.

Decisions in society should be knowledge based.

Science of climate change provides this type of knowledge.

Page 4: WGI: Overview

The Structure of WG I Report of IPCC AR514 Chapters covering: climate change observation

(Ch 2, 3, 4, 5); climate change understanding

(Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ); future-projected climate (Ch

11, 12, 13, 14); the Atlas of Regional Change.

Page 5: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report Warming of the climate system is unequivocal -

each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

From SPM

Page 6: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal - it is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0-700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010

From SPM

Page 7: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal – there are coherent changes in all climate system components

From SPM

Page 8: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have

increased since 1750 due to human activity and their radiative forcing dominates aerosol, solar, volcanic and internal variability (with CO2 providing largest radiative forcing).

Page 9: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report

It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

Page 10: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century will continue to increase and is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850−1900 for all scenarios except RCP2.6.

Page 11: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century and virtually certain beyond 2100.

From SPM

Page 12: WGI: Overview

Key findings of WG I Report Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further

warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

From SPM

Page 13: WGI: Overview

New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP

5) experiments under concentration scenarios (RCPs)

From: http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2011/09/the-cmip5-climate-experiments/

Page 14: WGI: Overview

New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC

Ch 11. Near term predictions and projections based on CMIP 5 – requested by the decision makers and adaptation communities;

There are some encouraging evidence from numerical experiments for certain seasonal to decadal predictability (regionally dependent).

From: http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2011/09/the-cmip5-climate-experiments/

Page 15: WGI: Overview

New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC

The Atlas of Regional Change (temperature and precipitation changes for 35 regions, using 42 global models under 4 RCPs)

Page 16: WGI: Overview

New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC

Examples from the Atlas of Regional Change – you can play around to get projected regional changes at http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas but please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.

Page 17: WGI: Overview

Next steps

Assessment Report 6 (AR6) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) will continue to reduce as much as possible and better quantify uncertainties related to physical science basis of climate change.

AR6 has to respond to increase requests for regional and near term information on climate change signal vs. climate variability.

AR6 has to find improved approaches to couple climate with impact and adaptation information.

Page 18: WGI: Overview

Thank you!


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