What a Billion Jobs Can Tell Us - Real-Time Data in the...

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2019/SOM2/HRDWG/FOR/007

What a Billion Jobs Can Tell Us - Real-Time Data in the Labour Market

Submitted by: Burning Glass Technologies

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics ForumViña del Mar, Chile

2-3 May 2019

© 2019 Burning Glass Technologies—Proprietary and Confidential

What a Billion Jobs Can Tell UsReal-Time Data in the Labour Market

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics Forum

Matthew Sigelman, CEO

@mattsigelman

[email protected]

Viña del Mar, Chile

May 2, 2019


Serves as a model

for the kind of

insight Internet

data can empower

Applying Big Data to the Economy:

The insight was

simple: the Internet

provides vast

amounts of real-time

economic data—if

you can collect and

analyze it

Provided a reality

check to official

stats in Argentina

The Billion Prices Project


In addition, job

postings provide

insight into real-

world skill demands

What a Billion Jobs Can Tell Us vs. Traditional Labour Market Information

Because of that

speed and detail,

the data is more

actionable

Greater speed,

granularity

compared to

surveys


The Data

4


Collecting Real-Time Labour Market Data

Visit Online

Job Sites

Collect &

Deduplicate

Job Postings

Tagging & Normalising

Postings to Generate

Detailed Data

• Job Title & Occupation

• Employer & Industry

• Technical Skills

• Foundational Skills

• Certifications

• Educational Requirements

• Experience Levels

• Salaries

The Process:


80%3.4 million

40,000 300 million

>1 billion

Dynamic Labor

Market Ontology>1 million

Active jobs

collected weekly

Sources across the web - job

boards and corporate sites

Historical job market

records

Firms represented, from

large corporations to SME’s

US, UK, CA, ANZ, SG

23 Career Areas

2,000 Occupations

18,000 Skills

60,000 Skill Variants

Deduplication ensuring

integrity and consistency

CV’s processed per

annum

The effort needed to build a comprehensive data collection structure is

significant, as our experience shows.

What it Takes:

Collection Infrastructure


3.4 million active,

unique jobs

Capturing Job

Market Data

Tagging and

Structuring

A Common

Language

Drawing

Conclusions

70+ elements

of metadata

Proprietary

taxonomy for valid

comparisons

Insight from

in-demand skills

What it Takes:

Data and Analytics Engine Normalising the labour market to enable data-driven conclusions


Skill Hierarchy Sample: Web and Mobile Metadata Elements

• Skill Type

• Description

• Demand

• Projected Growth

• Occupations Hiring

• Average Salary

• Industries Hiring

• Employers Hiring

• Similar Skills

Robust, Multi-Tiered Ontologies for Skills & Jobs

What it Takes:

© 2019 Burning Glass Technologies—Proprietary and Confidential 9

How Our Taxonomies

Track Emerging TechnologiesExample: Defining AI

Skill Cluster Skill Name Terminology

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence AI-Enabled

IBM Watson Word2vec

IPSoft Amelia Deep Learning

Ithink Reinforced Learning

AI ChatBot Natural Language Programming

AI KIBIT Computational Linguistics

Virtual Agents Image Recognition

Machine Learning

Vowpal Computer Vision

Wabbit Keras

Xgboost Tensor Flow

Support Vector Machines (SVM) Autonomous Car

Google Cloud Machine Learning Platform Autonomous Driver

Semantic Driven Subtractive Clustering Method (SDSCM) Autonomous Vehicle

Gradient boosting Self Driving

Deeplearning4j Robo-Advisor

H2O (software) Chatbot

Keras Virtual Agent

Microsoft Cognitive Toolkit Virtual Assistant

Mlpy

MXNet

ND4J (software)

MLPACK (C++ library)

Libsvm

Madlib

Pybrain

Object Tracking

OpenCV

Random Forests

Decision Trees

Recommender Systems

Computer Vision

Deep Learning

Machine Learning

Mahout

Neural Networks

Robotics

Servo Drives / Motors

Electromechanical Systems

Motoman Robot Programming

Robot Framework

Robot Operating System (ROS)

Robot Programming

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM)

Robotics

Robotic Systems

Natural Language Processing

Latent Semantic Analysis

Ntebase

AI KIBIT

Automatic Speech Recognition

Information Extraction

Sentiment Analysis / Opinion Mining

Cortical

Natural Language Toolkit

Latent Dirichlet Allocation


Core Skills

Distinguishing Skills

Building Block Skills

Core Skills: Definitional skills to each

occupation which job seekers need in

order to contribute.

Building Block Skills: Required and

relevant across many roles and

represent foundational, but not unique

skills.

Distinguishing Skills: These are the

core specializations and

differentiations that drive performance

– and often time and cost to hire

The Intersection of Skill & Occupation Taxonomies

Yields Insight on Sub-Occupational Diversity


Occupation ProfileIndustrial Engineer: Devises ways to make production processes more efficient and less wasteful. Uses technology and engineering to help companies and organizations produce products with efficient use of time, resources, and energy.

Common job titles include: Quality EngineerIndustrial EngineerSupplier Quality EngineerPackaging EngineerProduction Engineer

National Postings % BA

% Entry Level

66,029s

96%d9%

How Skills Define Occupations

Posting Counts Below 10,000 10,000-25,000 25,000-75,000 75,000-150,000 Above 150,000

Baseline Skills:• Quality Assurance and Control• Communication Skills• Problem Solving• Organizational Skills• Writing• Planning• Troubleshooting• Root Cause Analysis• Computer Skills

Machining & Manufacturing

Technology

Support & Training

Product Production and Management

Drafting & Engineering

Design

• Engineering Support• Technical Support

• Calibration• Machinery• Welding

• AutoCAD• Computer Aided Drafting/Design

(CAD)

• Medical Device• Product Design• Product Development

Industrial Engineer

Manufacturing Operations

• Packaging• Procurement• Purchasing• SAP• Scheduling

Manufacturing Processes & Standards

• Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA)

• ISO 9001 Standards• Lean Manufacturing• Mfg. Processes• Minitab

• Process Control• Process Improvement• Six Sigma• Process Engineering• Good Manufacturing

Practices (GMP)

Note: Bolded skills indicate those that make a job more difficult to fill.


Changes in Representativeness Over Time are Very Small

12

Note: The x-axis shows the BGT posting percentage in an occupation group in 2007 minus the CPS new job percentage in the

same occ group in 2007. The y-axis shows the differences each year from 2010 to 2015; darker shades are earlier years,

lighter shades are later. This figure is taken from “Hershbein, B. and Kahn, L.B., 2016. Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-

Biased Technological Change? ”.

Figure 3: Comparison of BGT Posting Distribution Across Occupation Groups to

New Jobs Distribution from the Current Population Survey (CPS) Over Time

Is it an Accurate Picture?


Consistency is Ensured by

Aggregating from a Wide Array of Sources

13

Cajner, T and Ratner, D. (2016): Suggest that interpreting the measure of job vacancies

from real-time data requires careful consideration of changes in the quickly-evolving

market for online job postings

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

OF

UN

IQU

E P

OS

TIN

GS

NUMBER OF JOB BOARDS

Note: Burning Glass collects data from more than 40,000 sources. The largest source of BGT data accounts for no more that

5% of the total, while the top 100 largest sources account for less than 40% of the total.

Figure 4: Cumulative Distribution of Total Unique Postings Collected from the Top 100 Job Boards


Job Posting Data Correlates With Other Sources

14

Note: Burning Glass data cannot be directly compared to JOLTS, because of the differences in the collection method.

Burning Glass data represent only new postings which are collected for a specific month, while JOTLS data includes

openings which could have also existed in previous months.

Figure 5: JOLTS and Burning Glass Data

(January 2010-April 2017)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

JOLTS Adjusted BGT New Postings

Correlation of the two

time series is 0.89


The Insights

15


Real-time Data Examines the DNA of Jobs

• Jobs are bundles of skills

• Traditionally, we’ve

understood those skills via

expert analysis

• But job posting data allows

us to see how jobs bundle

and unbundle skills in the

real world, in real time

16


Existing OccupationsCan Evolve Dramatically in Just a Few Years

24%

27%

28%

28%

28%

28%

30%

34%

36%

40%

Actuaries

Electrical and Electronics Drafters

Environmental Engineers

Insurance Underwriters

Pharmacists

Advertising and Promotions Managers

Software Developers, Systems Software

Architectural and Civil Drafters

Computer Programmers

Mechanical Drafters

% of tasks that have changed since 2007

Fastest-Changing Professional Occupations

Source: Deming, NBER, 2018,

analysing Burning Glass data


Jobs are Having SexThe Emergence of a Hybrid Genome

ACCOUNTING

Accounting

Account Reconciliation

General Ledger

Financial Statements

Generally Accepted

Accounting Principles

Financial Reporting

Balance Sheets

SOFT SKILLS

Communication Skills

Detail-oriented

Excel

PROGRAMMING

Python

SQL

Hadoop

R

DATA SKILLS

Data Visualization

Tableau

Excel

MapReduce

BUSINESS SKILLS

Predictive Models

Business Process

Economics

Strategic Planning

SOFT SKILLS

Problem Solving

Writing

Teamwork

Accountant Data Scientist

+598%Since 2013

+23%Since 2013


New Jobs are Being Created but

19

2018 32 occupations

861,409 postings

2015 22 occupations

490,241 postings

2012 13 occupations

270,140 postings

Occupations with at least 10,000

postings requesting data skills

22,698

23,598

34,719

55,262

76,189

150

3,774

5,758

20,831

36,836

Data Scientist

Social Media Strategist

Mobile App Developer

UI/UX Designer/Developer

Product Manager

Number of Job Postings in New Hybrid Roles

2010 2018

The Bigger Impact is in Existing Jobs

Average salary: $109K






Jobs That Mix Skills are Growing Fastest

Harvard economist David Deming: Jobs requiring a combination of math and social

skills are growing fastest.

Source: Jobs of the Future

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/jobs-of-future-and-skills-you-need/


Hybrid Jobs are More Human

21

29%

20%

22%

26%

34%

12%

14%

13%

7%

18%

Writing

ProblemSolving

Research

Creativity

Collaboration

All Jobs Hybrid Jobs

% of Highly Hybridized Jobs requesting

key soft skills vs. % of all jobs

More Soft Skills, More Resistant to Automation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Highly Hybridized Jobs All Jobs

Vulnerability to Automation

Highly Hybridized Jobs All Jobs


Identifying Future Skill DemandsA Range of Lenses for Tracking Emerging Trends

Top IT Skills(Total postings)

Highest Paying IT

Skills (Mean advertised salary)

Fastest Growing IT

Skills (24 month projections)

Hardest to Fill IT

Skills(Mean posting duration)

1. SQL Zookeeper TensorFlow Public Cloud Security

2. Java TensorFlowGeneral Data Protection

Regulation (GDPR)

Infrastructure as a Service

(IaaS)

3. JavaScript Scala KubernetesCloud Technology

Architecture

4. Linux AWS Redshift Spring Boot Cloud Infrastructure

5. Python AWS DynamoDB Webpack Ansible

6. Data AnalyticsGo Programming Language

(Golang)AWS Lambda Apache Mesos

7. Salesforce Pig Salesforce Lightning Data Protection Planning

8. C# Apache Mesos Redux Work Breakdown Structure

9. Scrum AWS CloudFormation Financial Microservices Hadoop Cloudera

10. C++ Deep Learning Apache Kafka OpenShift


Not All Shortages are Gaps

23

Deeper Characterization of the Skills Gap

© 2019 Burning Glass Technologies—Proprietary and Confidential 24

The Retail industry,

which to a large

extent represents

the consumers of

AR/VR, has shown

increasingly fast

growth in demand

after 20150

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Jo

b P

osti

ng

s

Year

AR/VR: Growth by Industry

Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Manufacturing Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Evaluating skill demands of

Emerging Sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Jo

b P

os

tin

gs

Year

Examples of growing demand for AR/VR in occupations

Video Game Designer Hardware Engineer Marketing Manager

Product Manager Market Research Analyst Mobile Applications Developer


Tracking Tech’s Impact on Existing Roles

25

164

117

8973

193179

167

141

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017

Trending logistics skills across all Australia Internet job postings, by rank, 2014–17

Transportation logistics Logistics analysis

Automation Drives Logistics Demand


Identifying & Prioritizing

Disruptive Jobs & Skills

A framework for identifying and planning ahead for the skills that are likely to challenge the

market into the future.


Even in Emerging Fields like Data Science

Not All Skills Are Created Equal


Guiding Policy Responses

28


Traditional LMI still

vital for long-term,

macroeconomic

trend analysis

How Real-Time Data

Inform Policy & Programs

A complement,

not substitute for

traditional LMI

With more detailed

insight, agencies

can respond more

precisely and use

resources more

effectively


Integrating with Traditional Data Sources

30

Tracking “hot technologies” in the market to identify

elements that are missing from the official taxonomy

Supplementing its Occupational Requirements

Survey with activities, skill demands, and role

qualifications, reducing research cost while improving

survey questions

Developing with Nesta a proof of concept for a

national skills taxonomy and additional LMI products

Creating models to analyze job posting data

in all EU languages

Tracking and responding to posted demand


Identifying Critical Occupations

31

Source: TalentCorp Malaysia

Developing Shortage Lists


Career Guidance to the Public

32

Wheretheworkis.org compares entry-level

employer demand in the UK with the

number of learners completing related

programs of study.

Cyberseek.org tracks cybersecurity

demand in the United States and provides

interactive career pathways for jobseekers

and students.


Aligning Education with the Job Market

A >100K student public

online university is

using postings data to

assess the alignment

between the skills

taught in their

programs and the skills

employers require of

students and identify

curricular blind spots

Northeastern University has used

postings data to identify and develop 35

new degree programs aligned to specific,

localised high demand job market

opportunities across six cities


Informing Policy

34

Multiple research studies on

changes in the labor market, both

by the U.S. Federal Reserve and

at regional Reserve Banks. Most

recently, Fed researchers used

postings data to identify jobs with

strongest mobility and pay for

sub-baccalaureate workers

Developed a dashboard to provide a live-feed of

statistically relevant insights into the NSW labour

market with the goal of identifying and analysing

skills shortages, workforce development, and

future skills needs in NSW


Driving Economic Development

35

Central Alabama’s economy is dominated by non-

tradable industries, leaving the area in a poor position

compared to other parts of the U.S. The Broad Goals

Coalition is using job posting data as the core of a

campaign to redirect the local economy,

Pittsburgh and its suburbs have an aging workforce.

The conference is coordinating efforts by business,

educators, and workforce agencies to ensure the city

has the skills base to be competitive.


CNC

Programmer

$54,506+8% growth

Data Entry

Clerk

$27,076-7% decline

Medical Biller

$32,761+12% growth

Skills:

• CAD/CAM

• Manufacturing

Processes

• AutoCAD

• Mastercam

• SolidWorks

Skills:

• Medical

Billing

• HIPPA

• ICD-10

• CPT Coding

Reskilling to Survive AutomationIdentifying Options for Workers at Risk

Machinist

$40,095- 7% decline


Nations need to

use every tool

possible to ensure

prosperity for their

citizens

Keeping Up with Rapid Change

The pace of

technology is

changing jobs

too quickly for

traditional

methods

Millions worldwide

will be affected by

this new labor

market


Matt Sigelman, CEO

[email protected]

@mattsigelman

38

Burning Glass Technologies | One Lewis Wharf | Boston, MA 02110 USA+1 (617) 227-4800 | www.burning-glass.com

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