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What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

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What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG. August 7, 2008 Dan Pickering. *Disclaimers on page 9 of this document. Natural Gas 12 Month Strip. 2. 2. Energy Stocks – Hero And Goat. 2008 Stock Performance. What Is Happening?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1 What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG *Disclaimers on page 9 of this document. August 7, 2008 Dan Pickering
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Page 1: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

1

What A Difference A Few Months Makes!

Presentation toIPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

*Disclaimers on page 9 of this document.

August 7, 2008Dan Pickering

Page 2: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

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$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08

$/m

cf

22

Natural Gas 12 Month Strip

Page 3: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

3

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

J an-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 J un-08 J ul-08

Inde

xed

to 1

2/31

/07

Clo

se P

rice

E&P Oil Service Majors S&P 500

Energy Stocks – Hero And Goat

2008 Stock Performance

Page 4: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

4

What Is Happening?

Fastest Pullback In A Decade

Stock Market Stinks

Global Economic Fears Growing

Pain Vortex FACT OR FICTION?

Page 5: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08

$/m

cf

What Is Happening In Gas?

Wellhead Supply Is Growing

Gas Storage Datapoints Weak

Haynesville Emerges

Other Commodities Softer

Page 6: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

6

What Are E&P Stocks “Telling Us”?

XTO’s Net Asset Value

YE’08 Proved Reserves NAV

Barnett 2P/3PBakken 2P/3P

Fayetteville 2P/3P

Other 2P/3P

$78/share

$56/ share

+$7/ share

+$8/ share

+$1/ share+$6/ share

Closing stock price 8/ 4/ 08 = $43.54/ share

Page 7: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

7

Stock Upside At $70/bbl, $7/mcf

NAV @ TPH Risked Reserves, $70/ bbl and $7/ mcf

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RRC XTO CHK NBL HK APC DVN XCO PXP SWN APA NFX KWK UPL OXY EOG SD CXG

Ups

ide

from

8/4

/08

Clos

ing

Pric

e

Average = +42%

Page 8: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

8

Sunrise Or Sunset?

Sometimes Stocks Convey Information……And Sometimes Just Sentiment

Stocks Are Either: Way CHEAP… …Or Cycle Is TOAST

Page 9: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

999

Put in Final Presentation Slide Here

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. is a leading institutional brokerage firm focusing on energy-sector research for institutional investors. The Company, a NASD broker-dealer, develops investment ideas for our clients by actively covering the E&P

and oil service industries, while monitoring energy subsectors such as coal, nuclear, tankers and alternative energy.

In addition to research activities, Tudor, Pickering, Holt has executed share repurchases and helped energy companies raise equity capital via co-manager and syndicate positions in numerous energy offerings including BAS, CHK, COG, CPX, CRZO, EPB, EQT,

GDP, HERO, KBR, REXX, RRC, SD, XCO, XTO.

Our research is provided to institutional clients via published reports, concise emails, and through direct interaction with our highly rated analysts and unique, specialized sales force.

Tudor, Pickering, Holt has ~65 employees working from our main Houston office and also in Denver, Colorado. The firm was established in February 2004 as Pickering Energy Partners and combined with Tudor Capital in February 2007.

Contact UsHouston: 713-333-2960Denver: 303-300-1902

Page 10: What A Difference A Few Months Makes! Presentation to IPAA Capital Markets / HEFG

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Disclaimer

TudorPickering does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you (and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those benefits, with no limitations imposed by TudorPickering.

The information contained herein is confidential (except for information relating to United States tax issues) and may not be reproduced in whole or in part.

TudorPickering assumes no responsibility for independent verification of third-party information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by, reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/ or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and TudorPickering materials.

Under no circumstances is this presentation to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Prior to making any trade, you should discuss with your professional tax, accounting, or regulatory advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. This brief statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of entering into any particular transaction.


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