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1
What A Difference A Few Months Makes!
Presentation toIPAA Capital Markets / HEFG
*Disclaimers on page 9 of this document.
August 7, 2008Dan Pickering
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$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08
$/m
cf
22
Natural Gas 12 Month Strip
3
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
J an-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 J un-08 J ul-08
Inde
xed
to 1
2/31
/07
Clo
se P
rice
E&P Oil Service Majors S&P 500
Energy Stocks – Hero And Goat
2008 Stock Performance
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What Is Happening?
Fastest Pullback In A Decade
Stock Market Stinks
Global Economic Fears Growing
Pain Vortex FACT OR FICTION?
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$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08
$/m
cf
What Is Happening In Gas?
Wellhead Supply Is Growing
Gas Storage Datapoints Weak
Haynesville Emerges
Other Commodities Softer
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What Are E&P Stocks “Telling Us”?
XTO’s Net Asset Value
YE’08 Proved Reserves NAV
Barnett 2P/3PBakken 2P/3P
Fayetteville 2P/3P
Other 2P/3P
$78/share
$56/ share
+$7/ share
+$8/ share
+$1/ share+$6/ share
Closing stock price 8/ 4/ 08 = $43.54/ share
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Stock Upside At $70/bbl, $7/mcf
NAV @ TPH Risked Reserves, $70/ bbl and $7/ mcf
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RRC XTO CHK NBL HK APC DVN XCO PXP SWN APA NFX KWK UPL OXY EOG SD CXG
Ups
ide
from
8/4
/08
Clos
ing
Pric
e
Average = +42%
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Sunrise Or Sunset?
Sometimes Stocks Convey Information……And Sometimes Just Sentiment
Stocks Are Either: Way CHEAP… …Or Cycle Is TOAST
999
Put in Final Presentation Slide Here
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. is a leading institutional brokerage firm focusing on energy-sector research for institutional investors. The Company, a NASD broker-dealer, develops investment ideas for our clients by actively covering the E&P
and oil service industries, while monitoring energy subsectors such as coal, nuclear, tankers and alternative energy.
In addition to research activities, Tudor, Pickering, Holt has executed share repurchases and helped energy companies raise equity capital via co-manager and syndicate positions in numerous energy offerings including BAS, CHK, COG, CPX, CRZO, EPB, EQT,
GDP, HERO, KBR, REXX, RRC, SD, XCO, XTO.
Our research is provided to institutional clients via published reports, concise emails, and through direct interaction with our highly rated analysts and unique, specialized sales force.
Tudor, Pickering, Holt has ~65 employees working from our main Houston office and also in Denver, Colorado. The firm was established in February 2004 as Pickering Energy Partners and combined with Tudor Capital in February 2007.
Contact UsHouston: 713-333-2960Denver: 303-300-1902
101010
Disclaimer
TudorPickering does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you (and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those benefits, with no limitations imposed by TudorPickering.
The information contained herein is confidential (except for information relating to United States tax issues) and may not be reproduced in whole or in part.
TudorPickering assumes no responsibility for independent verification of third-party information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by, reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/ or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and TudorPickering materials.
Under no circumstances is this presentation to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Prior to making any trade, you should discuss with your professional tax, accounting, or regulatory advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. This brief statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of entering into any particular transaction.