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Introduction to Systems Thinking for School Leaders What are systems?

Ruth Deakin Crick With thanks to Patrick Godfrey and David

Blockley and the Systems Centre Chile January 2014

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What are Systems? Exploration of

- what a system is

- what systems thinking is

- why systems thinking is needed

In the context of the need for social sustainability and resilience

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What are systems

“A system is a set of parts which, when combined, have qualities that are not present in any of the parts themselves. Those qualities are the emergent properties of the system. Source: ‘Creating systems that work’ Royal Academy of Engineering 2007

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Introducing systems thinking

Systems Thinking is a way of thinking used to address complex and uncertain real world problems. It recognises that the world is a set of highly interconnected technical and social entities which are hierarchically organised producing emergent behaviour.

INCOSE UK Z7 Guide http://www.incoseonline.org.uk/Documents/zGuides/Z7_Systems_Thinking_WEB.pdf

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What is a system?

Essentially it is any two or more elements that are interconnected for a purpose.

Difference between Output and Input = Change

Emergence: A systems is said to have ‘Synergy’ when the whole is more than the sum of its parts. We design systems to get a synergistic outcome.

Input Output

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Input Output or Outcome

A complex system

Many to many connections Influencing or sending messages

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A real world system

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Synergy

whole > ∑

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Your Systems •  Technically

–  Brain –  Skeleton –  Nervous –  Skin –  Blood circulation –  Sensory –  Emotional –  Cognitive

Complicated! •  How does that relate to

–  your environment –  your feelings –  You!

Complex!

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What are systems

“Engineers are increasingly concerned with complex systems, in which the parts interact with each other and with the outside world in many ways – the relationships between the parts determine how the system behaves. Intuition rarely predicts the behaviour of novel complex systems.” Source: ‘Creating systems that work’ Royal Academy of Engineering 2007

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Consortium on Chicago School Research (CSSR) Bryk et al 2010

"schools are complex organisations consisting of multiple interacting sub-systems. Each subsystem involves a mix of human and social factors that shape the activities that occur and the meaning that individuals attribute to these events. These social interactions are bounded by various rules, roles and prevailing practices that, in combination with technical resources, constitute schools as formal organisations. In a simple sense, almost everything interacts with everything else". Source: Organising Schools for Improvement: lessons from Chicago, Chicago University Press, 2009:45.

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6 Principles

1.  Debate, define, revise and pursue the purpose

2.  Think holistically 3.  Follow a systematic procedure 4.  Be creative 5.  Take account of the people 6.  Manage the project and the

relationships. Source: ‘Creating systems that work’ Royal Academy of Engineering 2007

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A Systems Thinker’s Goal is to fulfil Purpose •  Purpose is the result, outcome or effect that is

intended from the system. Purpose is the answer to the question: Why are we doing this? It is the driver of intended change and defines unintended consequences.

•  A requirement is an unambiguous statement of a

capability that the system must deliver. A requirement is expressed in operational terms (what the system will do) rather than solutions (how the system will do it).

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1st Emperor of China Qin Shihuang (259 - 210BC)

Purpose Unification of China

•  Constantly assailed by warring neighbours Qin decided to unify China within its natural boundaries.

•  He did it in 10 years!

A great systems thinker

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Defined the Boundaries •  The sea, Himalayas, Great Wall. •  By Emperor Qin’s order, in nine

years, they connected all the existing bits and pieces, restored and extended them.

•  Hence the shape of the Great Wall was formed.

•  It was roughly 5,000 km long and ran from west to east, separating China from Mongolia.

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Developing synergy Whole > ∑ Parts

Strategy: make friends with distant states whilst making war with the neighbours!

•  He established prefectures and counties, ruled directly by the emperor.

•  Based on the original rules of the Qin State, the emperor adopted some regulations of other rival states to form a workable law of the Qin Dynasty.

•  In economy, he claimed that both the agriculture and commerce were very important. People should have them developed together.

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Common language now Mandarin

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Systematic method Customised mass

production

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Standardised manufacture, and technology enhanced life cycles

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Standardisation of weights and measures

Imperial edict of Qin reads:

“In Year 26, the Emperor has defeated all dukes and annexed the whole land. The whole land under the sky is at peace and the first Emperor has been entitled. The Prime Minister is sent to check the weights and measures and this measure is authorised.”

Imperial Edict on: Copper plate 99 X 62 X 2 mm

Probably attached to a wooden measure

Integrating Soft (people) and

hard (physical)

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Much more to be learned

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Three key ideas for systems thinking

Layers

Loops

Processes

Layers ……

Community Learning

Leaders Learning

Teachers Learning

Students Learning

Leaders  Learning  

Teacher  Learning  

Student              learning  

CommunityLeadership learning

Parent learning

Employee Learning

CommunityLearning

Systems Thinking & Processes

Loops….

Leaders  Learning  

Developing a shared, rich and multi-faceted language and values for

learning across the whole community

Leading for Effective Teaching

Leading, modelling and planning for complexity

Evaluating wider outcomes and using data holistically for improvement

Harnessing collective intelligence

Processes….

Teacher  Learning  

Designing teacher authentic enquiry aimed at student deep learning and

engagement

Teaching for Effective Learning

Collaborative learning across schools

Using technology to enhance collaborative learning

Professional learning (accredited and non accredited) as a pathway to impact

for research

Research Informed practice

Student  learning  

Taking responsibility for my own learning processes and performance

Understanding myself as a learner

Knowing how to construct new knowledge through authentic enquiry

Authentic assessment and performance

Service learning and citizenship as an outcome of authentic enquiry

Using EnquiryBlogger to enhance my learning

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Framework for Systems Thinking

Parts, wholes and layers

ProcessesHow change happens

Connections and loops

Viewpoints

Belief systemsPerceptions

Context

Integrating models

Purpose

Synergy

Boundary (open or closed)Holon/HierarchyEmergence

Feedback / ForesightCommunicationsRelationships

Requirements

Learning loops / Life cycles

Progress/EvidenceOpportunity and risk

Starting here

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Boundaries outside - inside

Inside

Outside = Meta-system

Meta = µετά = "after", "beyond"

Outcomes or outputs

Systems boundary

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Holon - anything both a part and a whole

Holon Another holon Another holon

Another holon

Another holon

Another holon

Another holon

Another holon

Another holon

Layers of holons

A bigger holon

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Inside outside layers - nested models

•  Systems within systems •  Each provides the context

for the ones inside •  Particularly helpful when

describing human behaviour

The first Russian nesting doll! - Matryoshka 1890

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Boundaries on Bio-fuel?

•  Why - the purpose of the System? •  How? Supplying Energy

bio-fuels wind

tidal

solar

hydro

Supplying Renewable

oil & gas

coal

nuclear

tar sands

Supplying Non - Renewable

using heat pumps

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Supplying Food

We need to understand relationships between components

– system architectures

Boundaries on Bio-fuel?

renewable

non-renewable fertilisers

bio-fuels

Supplying Energy

food miles

It helps to have a framework orientated to purpose

Where do we start? Our meta system

Our World

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Triple bottom lineDimensions of Sustainability

PESTE

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Comparing Policy level Frameworks

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Dimensions of Educational Sustainability PPESTE

Sustaining and

improving student

learning and achievement

economic

political

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Forum for the Future Five Capitals

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Halstar at Project level

•  Policy framework –  5 capitals

•  Project framework –  350 Issues –  5-6000 criteria

Key to visualisation of scores

© Halcrow Group Ltd (2008) all rights reserved

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Illustrating Project Issues

Key to visualisation of scores

Example of Project Issues Scoring Wheel

© Halcrow Group Ltd (2008) all rights reserved

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Bot

tom

Up

Top

Dow

n

Project

Occupancy Performance

Policy

Systems dynamics?

Agent Based Modelling?

Thinking in layers

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Systems Orientation Chart Soft, people

Hard, physical

complex large

long term unique

strategic wicked & messy

open

simple small

short term many

tactical tame

closed

After Oxenham D. (2008)

Engagement in learning

timetables

Accounts

examinations

Health and safety

Leadership decisioning

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Group Work : fill in the chart for your school system

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Parts, wholes and layers

ProcessesHow change happens

Connections and loops

Viewpoints

Belief systemsPerceptions

Context

Integrating models

Purpose

Synergy

Boundary (open or closed)Holon/HierarchyEmergence

Feedback / ForesightCommunicationsRelationships

Requirements

Learning loops / Life cycles

Progress/EvidenceOpportunity and risk

Loops

Now here

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Connections and loops

•  The relationships between the holons and their ability to communicate determines the emergent behaviours and the possibility of unintended consequences.

•  It is generally useful to think in terms of feedback and feed-forward loops to create learning and foresight and so to manage the processes involved.

•  Systems Dynamics is one way of simulating processes

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Connections and loops

Doing Process A Doing Process B

Action and reaction

Influence or message

Feedback Loop

Doing Process A Doing Process B

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Feedback loops

Jay W. Forrester MIT 1996

Setting desired water level:

(the success target)

Flowing water

Perceiving the water

level

Acting by turning the

tapThinking

about the gap

Blockley and Godfrey ‘Doing it Differently’ 2000

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Systems Dynamics

•  Systems Archetypes •  Negative and Positive Feedback •  Key References:

–  Senge, P. M. (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, London, Random House.

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Example – Fixes That Fail

•  http://futuresavvy.net/category/systems-dynamics/

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Example – Shifting the Burden

•  http://lindaboothsweeney.net/blog/?cat=17

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Feedback Loops

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2008/10/positivenegative-feedback-loops.html

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Learning Circle Activity

•  As a group, refer back to your Rich Picture from the Soft Systems exercise and note the key systems archetypes you see

•  Individually, draw at least one simple systems archetype from the Rich Picture

•  Add ‘+’ for any positive (reinforcing) feedback and ‘-’ for any negative (diminishing) feedback

•  Share your thoughts with your group

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Define problem

Set up theoretical model

Deduce results

Interpret meaning

Make a decision

Take action

Evaluate feedback

Problem solving loop

PLAN Choosing

Observing & Describing

Generating Questions Uncovering Stories

Mapping

DO Designing

improvement protocol Implementing

improvement protocol

STUDY Measure change Analyse Results

ACT Revise, Refine,

Collaborate. Present and Re-

develop

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Relationship with Educational Leadership

•  Systems Thinking is an essential capability for Educators which is shared with many disciplines e.g. Engineering

•  Design Educational Engineering and Development is an approach to school self evaluation which uses systems thinking to integrate school effectiveness with school improvement

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Relationship with engineering

Systems Thinking

Disciplines eg Engineering

eg

Systems Thinking

Disciplines eg

Specialists

Materials Testing

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The relationship between components influences performance

•  Wholes and parts •  Synergy

Whole >∑ of the parts •  Leading to emergent behaviours and

unintended consequence

From the debate identify examples of emergent behaviours and unintended consequences

Inside

Outcomes or outputs

Systems boundary

Part Part Part Part

Part Part

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Parts, wholes and layers

ProcessesHow change happens

Connections and loops

Viewpoints

Belief systemsPerceptions

Context

Integrating models

Purpose

Synergy

Boundary (open or closed)Holon/HierarchyEmergence

Feedback / ForesightCommunicationsRelationships

Requirements

Learning loops / Life cycles

Progress/EvidenceOpportunity and risk

Loops

Now here

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New Process - How change happens •  A holistic view of process

–  people and physical processes –  consistency helps integrate hard and soft –  helps to align stakeholders to purpose

•  Process define ‘How change happens’. –  includes natural, hard (physical) and soft (people).

Why = How (who, what, where and when)

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Integrating soft and hard

People provide an essential dimension of the success of every system and all its processes.

1.  All hard (physical) systems need to be seen as

being embedded in soft (people) systems 2.  All systems (hard and soft) are highly

interconnected and interdependent processes that have to be managed to success.

3.  Complexity is reduced if we use “New process”

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Parts, wholes and layers

ProcessesHow change happens

Connections and loops

Viewpoints

Belief systemsPerceptions

Context

Integrating models

Purpose

Synergy

Boundary (open or closed)Holon/HierarchyEmergence

Feedback / ForesightCommunicationsRelationships

Requirements

Learning loops / Life cycles

Progress/EvidenceOpportunity and risk

Integrating models

Finally here

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Capturing complexity in a real world

Perceived real world problem situation

Finds

Learning points which enable

Action to Improve

Soft Systems Methodology (after Checkland, 1990)

Models of relevant

purposeful activity systems

Comparison of models with

perceived real world situation

A structured debate about desirable and

feasible changes

From research

All models are wrong!!! But some can

be fit for purpose

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Points of view

It’s the way we see things

SEE

DO

GET Our belief

system filters what

we see (perceive)

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A Person

A view of a belief system stories jokes heroes/

heroines legends myths role models

beliefs

values

aesthetics norms mores

attitudes behaviour artefacts

ethical codes standards of excellence

After Joseph McNair (Rev. 2004)

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Twin focused approach to integration Integrated systems design

Innovate Provide Past Future

Source after ‘Doing it differently (2000) Blockley and Godfrey www.thomastelford.com/books/bookshop_main.asp?ISBN=0727727486

Evidence Foresight Vision Values Opportunity and Risk Scenario Models

Evidence Hindsight Prediction Statistics Literature reviews Case studies Models

Process

Soft People Purpose

Hard Products Function

Performance

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Coping with complexity Core Process

A meta-framework for integration

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Stakeholders in tourism in Grenada

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Using his HALSTAR framework to identify the issues

© Halcrow Group all rights reserved

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Design Framework for SUSTAINABLE TOURISUM IN GRANADA

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Loop of issues affecting tourists and operators

Examples of interdependent loops

Limitations to growth

Establish an econometric systems dynamics model to quantify the outcomes

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In Conclusion Purpose of this unit

Learning outcomes By the end of this unit you should be able to: •  “Demonstrate a thorough understanding of the key challenges

inherent in changing complex systems to become more sustainable

•  “Select and establish a measurement regime for a specified complex sustainability problem which is new to you

•  “Select, develop and apply an appropriate systems architectural framework for the specified complex problem

•  “Establish an implementation process that will recognise unintended consequences and provide opportunities for significant improvement in systems performance through synergy

•  “Demonstrate creative and innovative thinking in your approach to systems design”

Inside Sustainable Systems Unit

Learning outcomes

Systems boundary

Other stakeholder needs

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Recommended Reading •  Blockley, D & Godfrey, P. S. (2000) Doing it Differently :

Systems for rethinking construction, London, Thomas Telford. •  Hoverstadt, P. (2008) The Fractal Organisation: Creating

sustainable organisations with the Viable System Model, London, Wiley

•  Jackson, M. C. (2000) A Systems Approach to Management, New York, Kluwer.

•  Senge, . M. (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, London, Random House.

•  Sterman, J. D. (2000) Business Dynamics : Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, Boston, Mass., Irwin McGraw-Hill.

•  Wheatley, M. (2006) Leadership and the New Science 3rd ed. San Francisco, Ca., Berrett-Koehler