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Democratic aspirations of Africans:What can we learn from it?EDEM E. SELORMEY, AFROBAROMETR

April 30, 2019

Where Afrobarometer works

• Round 1, 1999-2001 12 countries

• Round 2, 2002-2003 16 countries

• Round 3, 2005-2006 18 countries

• Round 4, 2008-2009 20 countries

• Round 5, 2011-2013 35 countries

• Round 6, 2014-2015 36 countries

• Round 7, 2016-2018 34 countries

AB now represents the opinions of more than three-fourths of Africans

Survey demographics

Gender %

Men 50

Women 50

Residence

Urban 45

Rural 55

EducationNo formal education 20

Primary 27

Secondary 37

Post-secondary 15

Religion

Christian 54

Muslim 34

Other 11

3

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The demand and support for

democracy in Africa

Key demand-side indicators of democracy

|34 countries | 2017/2018

78%74% 72%

68%

54%

42%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Reject

presidential

dictatorship

Reject one-

party rule

Reject military

rule

Prefer

democracy

Reject all 3

authoritarian

alternatives

DEMAND

DEMOCRACY

(prefer

democracy +

reject all 3

alternatives)

43%46%47%

52%54%

57%61%62%62%62%63%65%67%67%68%68%69%69%69%70%70%72%73%75%75%76%77%77%78%80%81%81%81%82%84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

eSwatiniTunisia

MadagascarLesotho

South AfricaMozambique

São Tomé and PríncipeMalawiSudan

CameroonBurkina Faso

NamibiaKenya

MaliGambia

AVERAGENigeria

MoroccoNiger

LiberiaCabo Verde

GabonBeninTogo

ZimbabweGuinea

Cote d'IvoireMauritiusTanzania

BotswanaUgandaGhanaZambia

SenegalSierra Leone

Popular support

for democracy

| 34 countries

| 2016/2018

Respondents were asked: Which of

the following statements is closest

to your view?

Statement 1: Democracy is

preferable to any other kind of

government.

Statement 2: In some

circumstances, a non-democratic

government can be preferable.

Statement 3: For someone like me, it

doesn’t matter what kind of

government we have.

(% who say democracy is

preferable)

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Support for democratic institutions

and processes in Africa

Popular support

for elections | 34 countries

| 2016/2018

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open, and honest elections.

Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing this country’s leaders.

48%

54%

57%

61%

61%

64%

68%

70%

70%

72%

72%

73%

74%

75%

76%

77%

77%

77%

78%

78%

78%

79%

79%

80%

80%

80%

81%

81%

82%

83%

83%

84%

84%

87%

88%

50%

42%

42%

36%

33%

32%

31%

24%

21%

25%

27%

25%

25%

23%

22%

22%

19%

18%

18%

20%

20%

20%

19%

19%

18%

19%

16%

18%

16%

17%

15%

16%

14%

11%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Lesotho

eSwatini

Malawi

South Africa

Mozambique

Tunisia

Gabon

Cameroon

Morocco

Cabo Verde

Nigeria

Togo

Niger

34-country average

Madagascar

Burkina Faso

Kenya

Mauritius

Zimbabwe

Botswana

Namibia

Sudan

São Tomé and Príncipe

Tanzania

Senegal

Guinea

Ghana

Mali

Zambia

Benin

Uganda

Liberia

Côte d'Ivoire

Sierra Leone

Gambia

Should choose leaders through elections

Should use other methods to choose leaders

Support for

multiparty

competition | 34 countries

| 2016/2018

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in [your country].

Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that [citizens of your country] have real choices in who governs them.

34%

36%

39%

40%

48%

52%

57%

57%58%

58%

58%

60%

60%

61%

62%

63%

63%

64%

65%

65%

67%

68%

69%

70%

71%

71%

73%73%

75%

75%

75%

75%

76%

76%

81%

44%

62%

57%

55%

46%

43%

42%

40%42%

33%

39%

35%

37%

32%

36%

29%

33%

31%

33%

33%

32%

27%

30%

29%

24%

27%

24%26%

20%

22%

22%

22%

20%

22%

17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Morocco

Lesotho

Senegal

Tunisia

eSwatini

Sudan

Niger

Mali

Liberia

Mozambique

São Tomé and Príncipe

Madagascar

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Sierra Leone

Cameroon

34-country average

Kenya

Zambia

Guinea

Benin

Ghana

Nigeria

Burkina Faso

Cabo Verde

Malawi

Togo

Namibia

Mauritius

Uganda

Botswana

Gambia

Côte d'Ivoire

Tanzania

Gabon

Many political parties needed to give citizens a real choice

Political parties create division; don't need many

Should president

be accountable

to Parliament? | 34 countries

| 2016/2018

Respondents were asked:

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Parliament should ensure that the president explains to it on a regular basis how his

government spends taxpayers’ money. Statement 2: The president should be able to devote his full attention to developing the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions. 34%

40%

42%

51%

52%

54%

55%

56%

57%

60%

60%

60%

60%

61%

62%

63%

63%

64%

66%

66%

66%

67%

67%

69%

69%

69%

73%

73%

73%

75%

75%

77%

78%

78%

79%

61%

49%

51%

49%

47%

42%

42%

42%

33%

38%

32%

36%

31%

35%

36%

33%

34%

33%

29%

31%

33%

30%

31%

31%

17%

27%

25%

26%

22%

22%

20%

20%

20%

21%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Tunisia

Mozambique

Madagascar

Liberia

Nigeria

Sudan

South Africa

Namibia

Zimbabwe

Sierra Leone

Cameroon

São Tomé and Príncipe

Kenya

eSwatini

Lesotho

34-country average

Malawi

Zambia

Côte d'Ivoire

Senegal

Burkina Faso

Uganda

Gabon

Guinea

Morocco

Cabo Verde

Tanzania

Mali

Mauritius

Togo

Ghana

Gambia

Botswana

Benin

Niger

President should be accountable to Parliament

President needn't justify his actions

Views on two-term

limits for president | 34 countries

| 2016/2018

Respondents were asked:

Which of the following statements is closest to your

view?

Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office.

Statement 2: There should be

no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.

(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with Statement 1) 54%

61%

62%

62%

64%

66%

68%

68%

70%

70%

71%

72%

73%

74%

74%

74%

75%

75%

75%

75%

76%

76%

77%

77%

78%

78%

81%

82%

82%

84%

85%

85%

87%

89%

91%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mozambique

Lesotho

South Africa

Morocco

Cabo Verde

Cameroon

Madagascar

Namibia

Ghana

Burkina Faso

São Tomé and Príncipe

Mauritius

Botswana

Tunisia

Uganda

Zimbabwe

34-country average

eSwatini

Liberia

Kenya

Malawi

Sierra Leone

Sudan

Senegal

Nigeria

Mali

Côte d'Ivoire

Niger

Guinea

Zambia

Benin

Gambia

Togo

Tanzania

Gabon

Support for democratic governance 20 countries

2008-2018

78%

84%

82%

74%

69%

75% 75%

73%70%

73%

69%69%

66%

64%

65%64%

60%

63%

64%62%

53%

56%

61%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018

Support elections

Support two-term limit on

president

Prefer democracy

Many political parties are

needed

President must be

accountable to Parliament

Should be free to join any

political organization

Government accountability

more important than

efficiency

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Inprovements in supply of democratic

governance compared to the past

Views on supply of democratic goods | 34 countries

| 2016/2018

60%

63%

61%

75%

66%

51%

63%

67%

58%

55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

For media to investigate and criticize

For opposition parties to function

For independent groups to function

To join political organizations

To say what you think

LEVEL OF FREEDOM HAS HELD STEADY OR INCREASED:

Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor

problems

Last national election was free and fair (completely or with

minor problems)

Somewhat/completely free to say what one thinks

President rarely/never ignores Parliament

President rarely/never ignores laws and courts

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Perceived Democratic

governance Supply deficits

Key supply-side indicators of democracy| 34 countries | 2016/2018

Respondents were asked: - In your opinion, how much of a democracy is [this country] today?- Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [this country] today?

51%

43%

34%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Country is full

democracy/democracy

with minor problems

Satisfied/Very satisfied with

democracy

SUPPLY OF DEMOCRACY

(country is a democracy +

satisfied with democracy)

Satisfaction with how democracy is working | by region

| 34 countries | 2016/2018

Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [your country]?

(% who say “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied”)

59%

46%42%

38%

18%

43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

East Africa West Africa Southern

Africa

North Africa Central

Africa

34-country

average

Democratic governance supply deficits

cnt.

• Across many indicators, the supply of democratic and accountable governance is

declining over time and lagging behind citizen demand.

• Freedom of speech has shrunk (by 9 percentage points between 2008/2009 and

2016/2018 across 20 countries)

• Ordinary Africans decry the failure of their national legislators and local councilors

to listen to their constituents’ concerns. Seven in 10 (71%) believe that local

councilors “never” or “only sometimes” make an effort to listen.

• Parliamentarians perform even worse – only 16% of their constituents believe they

are genuinely listened to.

• Fewer than four in 10 citizens believe they could access information on the budget

for basic education or for projects envisaged under local development plans,

indicating low levels of transparency in public finance.

• Perception of corruption among government officials is high and increasing. Fully

seven out of 10 (71%) think at least some elements of their country’s Presidency is

corrupt, and are unimpressed by the state’s efforts to combat corruption.

Views on supply of democracy | 20 countries |

2008-2018

57% 58%

52%56%

49%52%

45%47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018

Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor problems

Fairly/Very satisfied with the way democracy is working

Conclusions and Recommendations

Sustaining African democratic

aspirations

• Citizens across Africa indicate a clear desire for democracy and many of

its key institutions and processes, including civil liberties, clean elections,

and governmental transparency and accountability.

• The evidence also exposes the failure of African political elites to keep

pace with the aspirations of their citizens for democracy and

accountable governance.

• To satisfy the quest for democracy in Africa, donors must not retreat from

the promotion of democracy and good governance, because doing so

will be out of sync with what African citizens want and will only

strengthen the hands of non-liberal democratic influences

• Encourage improvements in the supply of democratic and accountable

governance - in alignment with popular desires, of the African Union, The

African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, the African

Peer Review Mechanism, and the relevant SDGs.

¬ END¬

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