8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 1/21
What China Will Want: The Future Intentions of a Rising Power
Author(s): Jeffrey W. LegroSource: Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Sep., 2007), pp. 515-534Published by: American Political Science Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20446501 .
Accessed: 02/10/2013 21:15
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
.
American Political Science Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to
Perspectives on Politics.
http://www.jstor.org
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 2/21
Articies
What China Will Want: The Future
Intentions of a Rising Power
Jeffrey Legro
China'snationalpower isgrowing apidly,utwhat China will do with its ewfound apabilities emains n issue f contentiousdebate mong scholars ndpolicymakers.t the eart f the roblem s the ifficultyfdivining uturententions.wo argumentshave dominated thedebate.One focuses n powerand likely hinese revisionism.he otherhighlights hina's growing nterdependence nd likely uture atisfaction.oth areproblematic n termsf logic nd evidence. hey offer inear rojections hatignore he ay that hina's futures ikelyobecontingent-especiallyn the nteractionfforeignolicy deas ndevents. elative
powerand interdependencere importantut their mpact smediated through hedoctrines eaders se to justifyctionandestablish uthority:hose deas reprone tochange nregular ays-and with them hina's intentions.f this rgument sright,policyprescriptionshat dvocate ontaining, ngaging,r somemix of thetwo i.e.,hedging) nrelations ithChina need tobereconfigured.
The "rising hina"problem snot just boutpower,butpurpose. hinahasconsistentlytressedhat tsdevelopmentsamajor power ill bepeacefulnd
non-obtrusive.et in theUnited States there s,as oneU.S. DeputySecretaryfState ut it, "cauldron fanxiety" verChina's future.1xpert testimonyefore he
U.S.-China Economic and Security eviewCommission, body thatmonitors nd reportsoCongress nbilateral elations,as focused eavilyn uncertaintyverChina's intentions.2n February 007, Vice PresidentCheneycautioned hat hina's recent nti-satelliteestand general ilitary uild-upwere "not onsistentithChina's tated oalofa 'peacefulise."'3 he stomachsfstrategistsre churning.
It srare hen a pressingolicy ssue onnectsodirectlyto critical ap in the cholarlyiterature.uch isthe ase
with the mpact f the rise fChina on world politics.Will growing ower lead Beijing to challenge nter
national orms, ules,nd institutions-possiblyenerating angerousonflictmongmajor powersn astAsia ifnotelsewhere?r might hina's ntegrationnthe nternational conomy,ts rowing iddle class, nd increasing articipationn nternationalnstitutionsnd xchanges
lead toenduring atisfactionn the xistingnternationalorder? Today China appears to be a "status quo" power.4
Will itremaino?Existing nswers o this uestion ack thevery hing
needed: general xplanationfcontingenthange ntheintentionsfChina.5 he problem snot simplyn issue
ofChina's ecrecyrrepressionf freexpressionince heproblem f futurententionspplies to democracies swell asdictatorships.6ven ifwe had accessto the nnerworkingsf the hinesegovernmentoday,t sunlikelythat nformationould tell sabout futureims. ven ifChina today as some ecret lan for orldhegemonyrworld harmony,hose imswill be subject o change yChina'svery rowthnd the rocess ywhich itunfolds.Ironicallyven hina'stop leaders, espite heir oncentratedolitical ower, annotknowwithcertaintyhattheirountryillwant.
Indeed, hat s hat the wo iews ominatinghe ebate
on China argue, lthough hey eedifferentnevitablefutures.he firstocusesnChina's owernd claims hatChina's desireforrevision ill growas China's relativecapabilitiesncreaseespite hatBeijingthinksoday.nthis iew ther ountries ustdo all theyan to ontainrising hina because t somepointChina willwield itsnew-found owertochallenge lobalorder.he secondview ighlightshina's rowingnterdependencend rguesthat uch onflictan be avoided y ontinuingo ngageChina,whichwill builddomesticnterestsnChina thatfavor olitical iberalizationnd accommodationo therules f the revailingnternationalystem.othanswers
tap nto eep-seated orceshaping hina,but bothareflawed ue to their inear rojection f the futuref
JejfreyLegro s rofessorndChair in theWoodrowWilson epartmentfPoliticsndCo-Directorf theGoverningmerica n GlobalAgeProgramt the illerCenter f ublic Jfairs,niversityfVirginia [email protected]).he uthor hanksobert oss, ang hip
ing,rantly omack, ndZhu Feng orhelpfulommentsandDanielAaronWeir or xcellentesearchssistance.
DOI: 10.1017/Si537592707071526 September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 515
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 3/21
Art'icles IWhat China WillWant
Chinesepolicy owardsnternationalrder-be it he onflictual evisionxpected ypower heoristsrthe armonious ntegrationredictedy nterdependencedvocates.7
China'sdiplomatic uture,owever,s ikelyobemorecontingenthan itherhe ower r interdependenceosi
tions llow. o highlightontingencyequireshat omething e said boutwhat the utureepends n-no smallproblem ith a country ike hina that s authoritarianand non-transparentnmany issues. hat policymakersmost need, cholarsavefound ifficulto tudy.8learlyin the ase ofChina both itsrelativeower nd its conomic nterdependenceffectts oreignolicy.he issueofcourse show thetwowilldo soovertime.9
I argue hat heirnfluenceepends n a third eshinggear-national deas bouthow toachieve oreignolicygoals.Such ideasperformhree ritical unctions:heyempower ertain omestic nterestsroups verothers,
they enerate xpectationsgainst hichperformancesassessed,nd theyither acilitater impede he ossibility or newstrategyoemerge. pecifically,henChinese expectationsboutthe enefitsf integratingntheextant nternationalrder redefied yevents ithnegativeonsequences,nopportunityxists or omestic riticsto challenge hat rthodoxy.hether change ctuallyoccurs epends, owever,n the istributionf replacement ideas hatffectshether riticsan coordinaten afeasiblelternativeorld view.
This approach ffersome twistsn familiarhinking.Contrary o the ower-centriciewofChina, themost
dangerouscenarionthe uturesnotthe rise"fChina,butrupturesn hina's conomic rowth.pposed totheeconomic interdependenceosition, conomicengagementneednot leadtoharmony.ountries hat ndertakerapid ntegrationave eneratedonsiderableystemiconflict.'0 hina itself as displayed ide variation n itsapproach,e it ooperate ith, hallenge,rseparatetselffrom nternationalociety ver thepast two centuries.The point isnot that ower reconomic iberalizationsunimportant,ut rather hat hosefactorsnteractithdominant deas nparticular ays to hape nduring atternsf national ehavior.
In terms fpolicythismeans that either containmentnor ngagementolicy s reliableonsistenthoice.Indeed,thedominant iew today mongpolicymakersaccepts his dvice y dvocating "hedging"trategyhatpursues othoptions imultaneouslyith the articularmixof strategyconflictuals.cooperative)ependentnChinesebehavior.'I
The argumentere fferssomewhatifferentndmoreproactiveiew: tsuggestshatmanaging risinghinawill dependnoton behavior er sebuton thenature fthe ominant deas. hen China espousesdeas nd ctionthat avorooperativentegration,tmakes sense odo as
much as possible o ensure hat heir nternalupportersgain positive eedbacknd "I toldyou so" leverageis-ai
vis their omestic ritics. ikewise, hen China displaysconsistent evisionistendencies,uch ideasshould bepenalized-but only hen influentialpposition roupsare promoting ore attractivelternativedeas. therwise,nomatter owloathsomeny articularpproach,f
the lternatives ven ess esirable, ramatic ressureorrapid hange sproblematic.herefore,tbehooves heinternationalommunityobe proactivenot ustreactivetobehavior) ynurturingroups nd ideas n hina thatoffermore benign replacements o the less desirablealternatives.
Naturally n all these reas,thepotential or utsideinfluencen a countryfChina'ssize nd regime ype assignificantimits.etwe knowfrom he oviet xperiencethat ven inauthoritariantates, lowpatient ffortsosupport eformersan have an impact.'2 he future fChinawillnot bedecided ythe ctions fothers,ut the
actions foutside arties ave nfluencedhina's rientation nthe ast (e.g.,Nixon and the pening fChina)andmaydo soagain nthefuture.
I approach he roblem f therise fChina from heperspectivef internationalelationsheory,ot as anareaspecialist.hus Iwill emphasize owdevelopmentsnChina relate oa general atterneen nother reat owers ntheirttemptsorevise,oin, rseparateromlobalorder. he goal is to oint ut the roblemsnthe urrentdebate, ffern alternativeiew, nd explore ts ontemporary elevance. good startingoint istodefine hatexactlyfuturententions"eansand to utline he ature
of current hinese intentions.he article hen xploreshow powerand interdependencerguments ealwithintentions,ffersn explanation or hange nd continuity,ndexploreshe mplicationsor he uturefChina'sintentions.
China and ContemporaryInternationalOrderIntentionsefersowhatChina plans todo. Here I focusspecificallynplansfor ealing iththenternationalrder.In general erms,tates ealwith internationalrder n
threedeal ays: ntegration,evision,ndseparation.hefirst,ntegration,eferso national trategieshat cceptthe ominantrinciples,ules,ndnorms fwhatHedleyBull called internationalociety."3 ypicallyuch tatesare een s "statusuo," "satisfied,"r "conservative"owersbasedon their esire oworkwithin the nternationalsystem. second ategoryncludes hose tates hat nalystsefero s"dissatisfied"r"revisionist,"ut themeaning s he ame: heynvolveffortsofundamentallyevisetheinternationalystem.uch revisionypicallyreedsconflict inceother ountries reprone todefend thatsameorder.14 third pproach is seen in states that
attempt oremove r separate hemselvesrom he rbitof prevailingnternationalorms nd practices, uch as
51 6 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 4/21
Figure 1China's outlook on internationalorder
DominantOrthodoxy
Qing (1800-1860) Separatist
Republican (1896-1939) Integrationist
Era Mao (1949-1976) Revisionist
Deng (1978 - ) Integrationist
TokugawaJapan ttemptedodo in thenineteenthen
tury,rMyanmarhas done inthe ontemporaryeriod.Intentionss termhat s ften ssociatedith aims r
goalsor interests.t isuseful,however, odistinguishbetweennterestsnd the deas hat tatesdoptto ttaintheirnterests.road interestshowrelativelyittleariationbothwithinand amongstates. tateshave alwayssought ecurityrom xternalhreatsndespeciallynthetwentiethentury,conomic rosperityasalsoemergedas a coreresponsibilityfgovernment.'5s Jiangemindeclaredn1997,China seeks the oalofbeing rosperousand strong"-an imshared yChinese leadersandother ations) hroughouthe ges. hina'sdesire obe a
"richnd strongountry"nd to enrich he eople" atesback to t least he ate ineteenthentury.16oday hinais ertainlyntentn increasingts comprehensiveational
power."17
If uchfundamentaloals eemrelativelyonstant verlongperiods f time, deas bout how to achieve hosegoalsarenot.Theyhave ranged rom heviolent verthrowf internationalrder o the esire o remainlooffrom t, oanurge to integrateithin it. s seeninfigure 1,China's ownhistoryver thepast two centuriesshows ariationmongthese ositions.
By this ypology,hina'scurrentntentionsremostly
integrationist.hina is oining ndworking ithintherules f the xtant ystem.hewellspringf this tatusquo approach sfoundn engXiaoping's scent o eadership n 1978. Since thattime, hina has not soughtseparationromhe ystemorhas it spired ooverturnit. nsteadthas increasinglyptedfor nvolvement.hisorientationasmanifestedtselfn ignificantncreasesninternationalnstitutionalembership swell asmoreinformalooperativeehavior ith the xistingowers.'8This integrativerientationas cautious n the arly
Deng period, ut inthe astfifteenears aspickedupconsiderable omentum. here is roomtodebate the
depthof Chinese integration hether it is shallow renmeshed-butthe rend s lear.'9 hina has left ehind
"world evolution"nd "three orlds theory" hetoricfrevisionismnd gives ess mphasis o its elf-proclaimedrole as "leader f theThirdWorld."20 Instead hinatoday howsmostof themarkers f a conservativereatpower ccepting he asicprinciplesf the xistingnter
national rder.21hina joined theWorld TradeOrganization, as cooperated ore fully ith the nitedStatessince the /11 attacks,nd regularlyarticipatesnG-8meetings.China's continuedpromotion f "theFivePrinciplesf Peaceful oexistence"r the all for "newpolitical nd economic rder that s fair nd rational"seemvague.22 hina's commitmento revising he system o benefitevelopingountrieseemsmost relevantwhen it nvolves easures elated oChina'sown growthor to oncernsfsovereigntyelatedo ts wnhistorysa targetf imperialism.23
To suggest hat hina accepts hebasic principlesf
today'snternationalrder snot tosaythat tprefersochange nworldpolitics. ertainly hina is dissatisfiedwith some spects.hree importantnes areU.S. dominance, the status fTaiwan, and external ressure odemocratize.
China favorsmultipolarization"nd "democratization" ninternationalelations-i.e., hat ll states oratleast reat owers) ave more equal say nd the nitedStates hegemonism"or ny ther redominantountry)less nfluence-especiallyn termsf theU.S. ability ouseforce o chievets oals r to ntervenenthe omestic oliticsf other ountries.24hat sentiment,owever,
ishardly nusual nd is shared ymostmajor powers,includingmerica's uropean llies. hina has a specialsensitivityn suchmatters ue to the inkbetween tscolonialpast, subsequent ndependence,nd the egitimacyofthe ommunist egimewhich ases ts uthorityinpart n successfullyestoringhina's utonomy).The second, nd related,ssue s aiwan.China favors
reunificationnd rejectsnymove that nhances aiwanese independence.ince 1979 ithas advocated eacefulreunificationver liberation"but as alsodeveloped ilitary apabilitiesuited oTaiwanas a target).hina inthis ssue,swithTibet or other isputed erritories,or
traystselfsdefenderfthe xtant ules. nification ithTaiwan inChina'sview s "domesticssue" ver hich asovereigntatemustmake its wn internalecisions. s
Mao proclaimedothe nitedStates n1970, "YouhaveoccupiedourTaiwan Island, ut I havenever ccupiedyour ong Island."25
The combinationf a desire or utonomynd reunificationith Taiwan is fuelinghat isalso anomalousfor reat owerswith he xceptionf the nitedStates)in the ontemporaryystem-a relativelyapiddefensebuildup. lthough t sdifficultofathomxact umbersand levels f spending ue toChina's secrecyn these
issues, thas bumped tsmilitary pending ome 15percent year rom 990-2005with a 17.8 percent ncrease
September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 517
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 5/21
Articles IWhat China Will Want
announcedfor 007. The overall evel-withestimatesranging rom45-100 billion s till, owever, fractionof est.U.S. military pendingf $440 billion fy2007,excluding the $50 billion supplementfor Iraq andAfghanistan).26
China hasmade significantrogressn its apabilities(includingnballistic nd cruisemissiles, ubmarines,ircraft,ndamphibious perations) hat remostlyrelatedto regional hallenges,speciallyith regardo scenariosinvolvingaiwan.Assuming that he hinese economytriples y2025,Chinesemilitary pending s xpected oclimb o omewhereetween 185 billion o 400 billion(i.e., ess han he urrent.S. defenseudget). heChinese continue o face ignificanteopolitical hallengesfromeighborsuch s ndia, ussia, apan,nd the nitedStates, ot tomention internalhallenges nd demandsonpublic pending. iven this utlook, t sunlikely hat
the urrentcale fChina'smilitary odernizationignalsmore than desiretoprotect tsversion f autonomy,whichproblematicallyncludes aiwanand raises ssuesoverotherdisputed reas n the ast andSouthChinaSeas.27
Finally, hina may havemost of the ttributesf anormalmajor power nthe nternationalystem,ut it sdistinct rom thercontemporaryreatpowers n oneimportantay: it is the nlynon-democracy.his traitsuggestsensionsnd disagreementithemergentormsof internationalociety egardinguman and politicalrights.28n its nternationalelations,hina isquick to
makehay utofrelationsithcountries,hat y democracystandard,may be stigmatized r less desirablepartners-as seen in thestrong elationshiphina hasbeenbuilding ith Iran, orthKorea, the udan,Myanmar,andRussia.
To the xtentemocracyecomes defining eaturefinternationalociety-and countriesre forced ochoosebetween emocraciesndnon-democracies-Chinaightindeedbecomea revisionistower. ndeed, omehaveargued andChina has notdisagreed)hat hina offersdifferentodel ofdevelopment-"the eijing onsensus"that hallengeshe .S.-dominated Washingtononsen
sus."29 hat view featurestrong overnment-directedgrowth,igorousrotectionfsovereignty,nd the evelopment fasymmetricormsf defense ocombat thermore powerful ountries e.g., theUnited States). Inextremeircumstancesperhaps global conomicmeltdown),sucha visionmightbecomea rallyingointforresistanceo the ociety hat ow exists.At thepresent ime, hina'snotionofdemocracys
"the emocracyfdictatorship"ronewherepeoplearethe masterf the tate"-Kafkaesque erms hat efer osomethinghat snotdemocracys it sgenerallynderstood. nstead ower esidesnthe ands f the ommu
nistParty nd allother olitical ntities ust follow tslead or pay a blood price. Indeed even todaywhen China
aspires o greater emocratic eforms,he most mportant nd fundamentalrinciple or evelopingocialistpoliticalemocracyn hina" is he eadershipfthe ommunist arty.30nshort, olitical ompetitionsrare, opularpolitical hoice for he eadershipf the ountrys
notpermitted,he ress s tightlyanaged,the nternetsfilterednd blocked ithamazing ophistication,eligionis ontrolledy the overnment,ndhumanrightsccordsareverballycknowledgedut notfully mplemented.31
Despite this tanding,t isnotable that hina isnotadvocating hat tatesdopt imilar olitical ystemso tsown, rthat uman ightsormsre llegitimate.32nsteadBeijing mphasizes hat rinciplesuch ssovereignty,tability,nd territorialntegrityhouldtrumpuch onsiderations.33hina doesnot rule utdemocracyn ts uture,it ust nsistshatt ill followts wnpath, tylefdemocracy,nd timing. or the time eing,the nternational
normseems oemphasize emocratizationi.e.,movingina liberal irection) ot the nd state f democracy asomewhatndefinedoal).China's tatementsnd actionsfit hatrofile-asdiscussedater,t s lowlyiberalizingalbeit t a slowpace andwith reversals.verall,despitethe ensionver uman ightsnddemocratization,hina'scurrentutlook smostly ntegrationist.
The Limits of Power andInterdependenceThe debate overChina isnot aboutwhat China wantstoday, utwhat itmightwant tomorrow.he rise fChina could leadto a fundamentaleorientationfChinese thinkingndperhaps challenge oworldorder,sthose ho focusnpower redict.r China could ncreasinglynmesh tselfnand support he xisting ules finternationalociety,venundergoingolitical emocratization,smostwho emphasize hina'sgrowingnterdependence oresee.oth offern importantision, utbotharehalfblind in ignoringhe ontingentature fChina's futurententions.
Power
Power theoriesxpect clear hiftna revisionistirection. sRobertGilpinonceput it, As tsrelativeowerincreases, risingtate ttemptsochange herules overning he ystem."34ohn earsheimer oncludes hatChina'sgrowingapabilitiesillmean it would ot be astatus uo power, ut an aggressivetate eterminedoachieveregional egemony."35enny Roy expects hat"China's rowthromweak,developingtate o stronger,more prosperoustate hould resultnamore assertiveforeign olicy ... bolder,more demanding, nd lessinclined ocooperate ith the thermajor powers ntheregion."36he basic thrustf these nalyses s that ising
power eads o growing eopoliticalppetitend a likelychange oward evisionism.
518 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 6/21
This view of China has twovariations, he"patienthegemon" nd the "innocent iant." In thefirst iew,China is likeGermany n theWeimar period, atientlybidingitstime ntil it isstrong nough to reconfigurean oppressiventernationalrder. ans Von Seeckt, he
headof the utlawed shadow) ermany rmy sreputedto have declared n the 1920s,"First e'll get strong,then e'll take ackwhatwe lost."37 eng supposedlyadvised, Observe almly; ecure ur position; opewithaffairsalmly; ide ourcapacities nd bide our time; egoodatmaintaining lowprofile;nd never laim eadership."38he implication,fcourse, sthat fter oweris chieved ifferentolicies ill follow.ieutenant eneralMi Zhenyu, ice Commandant f the cademy fMilitary ciences, utitmorebluntly: [Asfor he nitedStates,]for relativelyong time twill be absolutelynecessarythatwe quietly nurse our sense of ven
geance.... We must conceal ur abilitiesnd bideourtime."39A second iew fChina isas an "innocent iant" hat
may not be revisionistight ow, ut is likelyoshiftnthat irection s itgains power. hinamay genuinelybelieve tsrisewill be peaceful, ut once ithas gainedenough esources,t s ikelyowantmoreandbewillingtoconcede ess nd henceput upwith less f the tatusquo.Sometimesuch hiftsillbeprovoked,ot y hina,butbythe nsecurections f the eclining egemon,nthis ase the nitedStates.40Not only srevisionismikelyccordingopower heo
rists,ut so too s onflict.ower ransitionsre iewed saquintessentialource fwar inthe nternationalrena.41This is speciallyhe asewhen nations avehistorieshatleave hem ggrieved.hus there sconcern hat hina,like ther ountries hat eel hey avehistoricallyottenthe hort nd f the tick,re articularlyrone o ttempttorevise he nternationalystem.42Thesepower rgumentsorrectlydentifyey lements
shaping hinese foreign olicyand internationalelations. hinese leaders ay close attention opower ndgeopolitics.43ndeed,to the xtent hat hina is interested in joining nternationalociety,tshould,by the
very rinciplesf the ystem,ave n interestnbalanceofpower olitics.ndChina is ertainlyocusedn increasingits wnpower ndbalancing .S. power nAsia.44Therearealsogood reasons obelieve hat hinese aimsand influenceillgrow n omerespectssChina'spowergrows. twould be a true nomaly fsomeportion fChina'snew-foundealthwerenotdirected o increasedandmoremodernmilitary apabilities.
Likewise ower ransitionheoristsightlyointtothehigher robabilityf internationalensionshenpowertransitionsccur. t is asyto maginehatmorepowerful hinamight se ts apabilitiesnwaysthat aise ackles
of those e.g., he nitedStates) sedtocalling he hotsinAsiawithout uch onstraints.
The problem ith this rgumentowever sthat owerisnotdestiny.here are nalyticnd empiricalnomaliesthat onfound uch spare iew. e might,for xample,assume hat tates reconcerned irstnd foremostithpower, ut thattells s nothing bout how they hink
they anbestachieve ower-by challengingheworld,cooperatingith it, r ignoringt.Because internationalrelationsrecomplex nd road testingrand trategiessdifficult,tates how agged esponsestbest to externalconditions.he possibilityf effectivedjustmento nternational emands sfurthermpeded y the act hat thestate" snot a single ctor ut an aggregationf leaderswith differentonstituencies,achwithvarying erceptions ndpreferences.45ggregatinghose referencesntoa coherentollectivehoicefaces varietyfhurdles.46nshort, rand trategysfilteredhroughomestic olitics.
Empirically,tates o not always xpand their oreign
policy spower ncreasesnordo theyimit tas powerdeclines). istorical nomalies re ommon.47nthe irst
WorldWar,America merged s the ominant ower ninternationalelations,ut its nvolvementnd goalsdidnot xpand, ut contractednthe nterwareriod. hinainthe ing eradid not lter ts solationistdeastodeal
with the ncroachingnd threateninguropeanpowerseventhough hesecurityituationndicated ountingdangers.nd in termsfpower trajectories,ritain ndthe nitedStates id notgo towarwith each ther t theturn f thetwentiethentury,ven s the nitedStatessurpassedritain s the ominant nternationalower.48
Nationalstrategyanrarelyeunderstood y referenceoexternalonditions lone.
Nor have ideasfollowed he alance fpower n lockstep. hina hasbeenconsistentlyeaker than he ominantpowers f world politicssinceat least the latenineteenthentury,et ts deas avevaried etweeneparation nQing China to integrationnRepublican ndcontemporaryhina torevisionismuring ao (seefigure2). We mightviewChina'spower trajectory,otstatic osition s beingmost important,ut that rajectory as been risingwith itsnd starts)incethe ommunistsseizedcontrol f themainland.China's ideas,
however, ave made shifts etweenrevisionism ndintegration.
And contraryo the"risinghina" thesis-i.e., thatforeign olicyambitions rowwith relativeowerChinawasmost revisionisthen itwas atoneof its eakest oints ntermsfrelativeower-i.e., afterao cametopower.
Scholars ave ttemptedomodify he ower iewtotake nto onsiderationuch anomalies. ne notion isthat tatesreshaped ot just y raw ower, utalsoby"intentions."50ower ransitioncholars ave ong otedthat nationalatisfactioniththe tatusuo" is s impor
tantstransitions.nboth nstancesheseactorsre iewedasdistinct rom,ndnot reducible o, ower.hey clearly
September 2007 IVol. 5/No. 3 519
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 7/21
ArticIes iWhat China Will Want
Figure 2Relative power (CINC) of China, the United States, and Russia
0.45 -
0.4
~0.35
Z- 0.3
0.25-
C oo om Ajc sl cJsSa:a
020.
0
0
o co0 c\J 00 o o. c\ 01t 0 CD0 C\j CO 0 (O C\j CO 't 0 (O C\J co(o (O a- oo Co 0) a) 0 0 C) C '\j CO CO ' LO cO (O (O ,- 0O 0 0)0c )0O ~O C CO o co CO C) 0') 0) 0) 0') 0) 0Y) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0Y) 0) 0) 0)
Year
| - - China CINOC 0US CINC -R ussia CINOC
imply hat e cannot nderstandnd predict hat stateswilldowithoutknowing owtheyhinkbout ppropri
ateaction.51et theyonotaddress he ey ssuefwhensuch thinkings ikelyo hange-or not.
Interdependence
A differentesponseoChinesepower omesfrom hosewho believe hat hina'smaterialmprovementnd socialevolution hroughnterdependenceith theworldgiverise odomestic olitical orceshat avorntegrationndsupport heexistingystem.his will occur throughnumber fmechanisms. irst, overnmentfficialshattake art n nternationaliplomacyndnegotiationsvertime ome todefine heirnterestsnwaysmore consistent ith the ystem.52
Second,China's increasingarticipationn theworldeconomy sexpected ogiverisetodomestic conomicand politicalnterestshat ress or ven reateriberalization.53orexample,sChinamodernizes,tsmiddle classand its resources grow (see figure3) 54-a trend that has
historicallyeena force or olitical emocratization.Finally asChina opens, the increase in travel and edu
cation broad see figure ),55the pread f free peechand ideas n the nternetseefigure),56 ndexperimentswitheven imitedoting nd choice re xpectedo nspirea taste or ibertyhat eeds emocratizingmpulseshat
willmorehappilylign hinawith nternationaltandards.
Overall, he orethathina is conomicallynd sociallyentwinedith ther ajorpowers e.g., he nitedStates)
themore itgainsfrom he verall ystemnd themore ithas to lose n changing he ystemr engagingnmajorconflict.57e might lso nticipatehat sChina participates nthe ystemtwill also change t, nconsultationand agreementith other ountries,ore to its iking.
These relatedrgumentshat upport ngagementertainly apturen importantnfluencenBeijing's hinking oday. hina has become aptivatedy the conomicgrowth hat as accruedfrom ts penness o the nternational conomy. uch interactionas generated oresignificantomestic oliticalnterestshat avor pening.
While thegrowth f theChinesemiddle class is stillnascent, heres ome videnceo uggestncreasingealthmayaffectoreignolicy pinions.58he People's epublicof China remains n authoritariantateyetChinesecitizens ill alsoattest othefact hat heir olitical ituation today isvastlymore liberal and open than itwas in
the re-reformeriod ndbecoming oreso.59 nd finallyChina realizes that itdoes have much at stake in the cur
rentystem-withncentivesobecomemoreengaged.60This explanationsefullyoints s tothefact hat orldpoliticss nacted hroughomestic oliticsndwhathappensinChina's foreignelationsanaffect hose olitics,potentiallyhanginghem ramaticallyvertime.
The problem ith these nterdependencergumentss
that hey,ike heirower-centricebating pponents,re
52 O Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 8/21
Figure 3Disposable income of Chinese citydwellers
800
700
8 600/
. 500/CD
2 4000UI 300
X
t 200
100
LO- ' c' 0' ) cmco- ' O' 1 D 0) O N M O
X E 0 8 O O O a ?8 8 O O ? N ?NO NO cmN
-Urban PerCapitaDisposable Income Indexed o1978)]
overly eterministic.61hey assume hat nceChina hasbeenhookedup tothe nternationalystemheres ittlechance twill ever hange irections.nternationalistactions rofitingr learningromntegrationreexpectedto snowball, ushing he ountry urthern that irection. his view,however,lso runs nto nalyticalrapsandhistoricalnomalies.
Analytically,thas a difficultime ccounting or owinterestsithin societies add up" tonationalpolicychoices.62or example, hat number f internetsers
translatesnto free peech ociety hat refersemocracy? ightnow theChinese governmentsmatchingstrides owardreedomfexpressionith its wncontrolof the nternetndpress. ikewise t isdifficultodetermine how a growing iddleclass rexpansionnChina'sinternationalectors ill fit ith political iberalizationcompatible ith internationalociety.hosewho have
Figure 5Chinese Internetusers
10.00%
9.00%
E 8.00%
o 7.00%IV 6.00%
o 5.00%
4.00%4.00%
c 3.00%/
& 2.00%
1.00%
0.00% . .
19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Figure 4Chinese students studying abroad
140000
120000
a 100000
g 80000
60000
EZ 40000
20000
0LO
-,.,,,,,,,C,,, ,C, 11......Co...o 0
ocL 8co roc'a88 bcotoN eorn9 z crn o| 9crnoc'3 }a)) cy)) a) o) a) a) CY 0) a) ) 0 CY)) o) 0 ) ?) a) C c
Year
- Studentstudyingbroad -RetumedStudeents]s
benefited ost from hina'sopenness re either n,orlinked o, he ommunist arty hat ules hina andprovidesfor tabilityhat ttractsnternationalnvestment.63Indeed, tmay be that democratichina-one whererural easants nd otherdisenfranchisedroupshave asay-would bedistinctlypposedto thetypef integration owoccurring.64Democratizations precariousrocess-democratizing
states reoften ronetoconflict nderthepressuresfnew-found ationalismtoked y exaggeratedxpecta
tions nrestrainedy fledglingnstitutions.ontemporaryhinesenationalismhreatensobe the r.Hyde tothe r. Jekyllf the "reformnd opening" olicythatDeng initiated.65conomic interdependenceay be aforcehat orks gainst onflict,utit snot a failsafe-asseen nthe nterdependencef the arly 900s n uropethat nded nthe reatWar.
Figure 6Chinese economic interdependence
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4XOI
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 ...........................
N z sco g8 8 >SN g@ O 8X 8 8 8O N C%JC'J
September 2007 jVol. 5/No. 3 521
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 9/21
Articles IWhat China WillWant
Nor doesglobalization-thehrinkingf the lobe ndincreasedensity f contacts ithin nternationalocietydue to technologicaldvances-guaranteehinese integration. he potential nterdependencefChina in thesystem-in termsf the ecliningosts f transportation
and communicationnd the elativepennessf the orldtrade rder-has beenoccurring or ecades.WhetherChina took dvantagef the otential ains f interdependencewas at least npart a Chinesepolicy hoice thatneedstobeexplained.66orexample,s seen nfigure,67Chinese interdependenceasnotbeendriven imply ythemarch of technology,ut instead yChinese ideas(and those fothers) bouthowmuch China shouldbeengaged n theworld.Thus, Chinese interdependencedeclined ollowinghe ise fMao's revisionismndwhenChina beganto recalibratefter hedisastrous ulturalRevolution,nterdependenceegan orise-especiallyfter
1978.The historyfnational conomicmodernization ia
engagement ith the internationalrena is filled ithstoriesfcountriesndertakingntegrationnd then atermoving in the pposite irection. erewemight thinkofWeimarGermany'shift nderHitler orJapan's hiftfrom aish6 democracy o theShowa eraor even theretreatf the nited States n the nterwareriod. hinaitselfeversedirectionsnmovingfroming China toNationalist hina and thenreversedgainin thetransitiontoCommunist hina.
In sum,bothpower and economic nterdependence
may pushstrategynparticularirectionsut suchmoveshave lsobeenreversedven henpower nd interdependenceconditions emain airlyonstant.imilarly,ometimes tates ay stick o theirlanseven sconditions fpower nd interdependencelter ignificantly.hy?
The Meshing Gear: Collective IdeasNeitherpowernor interdependenceirectlyhaped hinese grand strategyecause such systemic actors reenacted hrough omestic olitics nd decisionmaking.There areof coursemany typesfdomestic heoriesf
politics.Here, however, want to concentraten thecentralandmisunderstood)ole fenduring oreignolicy ideas indomestic olitics nd subsequent ationalbehavior.
There isa largendvery nsightfuliteraturen howcollective deas e.g.,beliefs, orms, iscourses,ulture,etc.) "matter"nforeignolicy.68hat isusually issinginthesergumentsshow deasmatter ntheir wn transformation.he literaturesvery ood on howcollectiveideasmightkeep intentionsixed,ut less lear n howtheyffecthange. o suggesthatdeas lay role ntheirown transformationsnot to arguethat utcomes re
wholly aused y deas.t s seful o istinguishhempactof ideas romther actorse.g., trategicircumstancesr
economic ressures)nd tomake sense fhow they ightconjointlyauseoutcomes-i.e., howpower nd interdependence nteractith ideas hroughredictableechanisms ocauseoutcomes.he centralmphasisnwhatfollowss n the ole f ideas simply ecause t s the east
understood) ut the mportancefpower nd transnational ressuresill also be clear.
Foreign olicy deas and Intentions
Statestendtoformulateroadconcepts-almost perationalhilosophies-that rient heirnternationalehavior. s largeocieties,ations equiredeas hat ignifyotheir embers hat they tand or; s large rganizationsthey equire deastoguide them ntheirnteractionsnthe nternationalrena. Ideas," s Iuse the ermere, renotmentalconstructsf individuals,ut instead he ol
lectiveeliefs fsocietiesndorganizationsbouthow toact.Examples f beliefsbout "goodpolicies"from heforeignolicies fmajor powers nclude:
* "non-entanglement"nEuropeanpolitics UnitedStates, 776-1941)
* territorialxpansion n thecontinent Germany1890-1945)
* isolation romxtensiveoreignnteractionrpresence Japan 640-1868)
* integrations a normal ower Soviet nion/Russia1986-present)
They are mbedded otonly nsomehumanbrains, utmost importantlynthe ollectiveemories,ationalymbols, overnmentrocedures,ducationsystems,nd rhetoric f statecraft.69
Suchviewsmatter ecausetheyre guidetonationalactionand can shapewhat states ant toachieve vertime. aturallytateeaderstrategicallylantheirctionsbut theyften o soagainst backdrop fcertain ominantnational deas boutwhatgeneral ehaviors ppropriate. hese ideas aybecontestedy ome roups ithinsocietiesut still erve saguidefor he ollectivenation."Promoted y those ho benefitndnurturedyhabit,
they rowroots. s organizationheoristsoint ut,particularlyhengroups ave ntangibleoals uch s "security" r "wealth" tateswill focus their ffortsrounddoctrinesf actionrather han ctualgoals.Put differently,deasbecome ntentions.70n foreignffairs,uchideas arewhat ErnestMay has called "axiomatic"formulationserived rom istory hat ecome cceptedassumptionsfpolicy.71
National ideas bout nternationalrder redifficultochangefor number f reasons. irst, hey aveconstituencies hat enefit rom hem nd thus reenergizedopromote nd defend hem.econd, uchdominant deas
become ngrainednpublicrhetoricndbureaucraticrocedures hat ake them esilientike ll traditionshatre
522 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 10/21
Figure 7Collapse
Desirable Results - Continuity
Events Contradict <1Ideas on UndesirableResults * Collapse
WorldOrder (potentialhangeEventsConfirm* Continuity seeConsolidation)
institutionallyntrenched.hird,becauseof this ffectthey ecome ormalized ot ust smeans to chieve nds,but also as a standardfwhat thenation hould o, oreven hat it s i.e., dentity).
TokugawaJapan ame to be defined y itspolicy f
excluding oreignersnd its eaders ppealedto that radition o ustain heirosition.imilarly,he nited tateswas distinguishedy ts efusalo get ntangled"ith thesuspect raditionalowersfEuropeinthe irst50 yearsof its xistencend presidentsaidhomage o that orm(e.g., arding n the 920s) in rder obolster heiropularity.72hina in thenineteenthenturyntheface fforeignncursionsttemptedohew to traditionaling
Middle Kingdommentality espite ts aning authority.It isthereforeotsurprisinghat ontinuitys the orm
inforeignolicy deas. hosewhowant tochallenge raditionface ignificanturdles.t is ften ardforndivid
uals toknow f thers esire hange nd ifthey o,howmuch they ill risk cting n suchpreferences.ackingsuch nformation,heyannot e sure f heir wndesireand effortsor hange should they xist)will haveanyeffect.heymustmount a casefor hythe ld ideas eredefunct,hich an nvolveonsiderableffort,ndbecauseit threatensradition,nvitesocial nd political riticism.
Likewise he ormationnd institutionalizationfnewideas reeds trifend uncertaintyecause articularrientations ffer ifferingosts nd benefits odomesticgroups hat an stalemateverwhich, f ny, ewdirection smore desirable. ontinuity,herefore,sa potent
force. et asMay points ut,entrenched oreign olicyconceptsrenonethelessulnerable o transformationashistoryrows"nd countriessee he ast n new ight."73The interestinguestionsrewhen and how?
VWhenrthodoxyisintegrates
Implicitnthe bovediscussions thefact hat hange snot a single henomenon ut involves wostages hatmust be explained:ollapse f the ld ideas ndconsolidationof thenew.Both stages, argue, reaffectedypre-existingdeas.
In the ollapsetage, re-existingdeas ffectow lead
ers ustifyolicy nd set baseline f social xpectationsofwhat should result. olitical pponents ithincoun
tries hen se those aselines o assess-and support rcritique-existing olicies, epending n events. henevents ontradictollective xpectationsnd the onsequences re tarklyndesirable,hange smorelikely.uchsituationsacilitatehange y giving mmunition o the
opponents f thecurrentrthodoxy,llowing hem orally upport o their idewhile supportersf the urrentorthodoxyre uton the efensive.orexample,he eparatistpproachf the ing Empirewas finallyisruptedby the1895 Japanese ictorynthe ino-Japanesear.That event et ff race mong utsiders o ontrol hinaand encouraged orces ithinChina tochallenge radition, ncludingnforeignolicy.74
Inmost other ircumstances,ontinuitys likely. orexample,ontinuityanbeexpectedhendeviations romexistingdeas ead o ndesiredutcomes. hen the nitedStates ntervenednWorldWar I it iolated ts ongstand
ingtaboo gainst ntanglementnEurope's olitics. heresults fWorldWar I brought idespread isillusionment in the nitedStates nd the mericans mbracedanewtheir raditionf "no-entanglement"nEurope. nsuch ituations,efendersf the ld ideas as the merican isolationistsid)will be able tomake political ayby claiming toldyou so,we shouldnever avestrayedfromur tried nd true radition."nterventionnWorld
War I, they rgued, adbeen a disastrous istake.Likewiseontinuitys ven ikelyhendominant deas
are gnored et esirable esultsccur. t ishard togathermomentum o hange ollectivedeas hen outcomes re
agreeable. onsider, or xample, he earth f investigations f largetockmarket ncreaseshat o one expectedversus he pecial ommissionshat lways eem to formto examineunexpected tockmarket crashes.Whenoutcomes redesirable,t sdifficultogenerate omentum to reorient ureaucraciesnd alter traditions.hedelegitimationfan extantrthodoxyequiresvents hatboth contradict ts logicand have undesiredconsequences. n such ircumstances,ndividualsill bemoremotivated ndmore likelyo hallengehosedeas, elieveothers reof a likemind,andhence the ossibilitiesorchange remore significant.
Figure depicts he ranchingogic fcollapse nvolvingthis nteractionf ideas ndconsequences.
September 2007 iVol. 5/No. 3 523
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 11/21
Articles IWhat China Will Want
Figure 8Consolidation
None orMany -* Continuityof ld deas)Replacement
Ideas UndesirableFeedback -*Continuity
OneDesirable Feedback * Consolidation
(change)
Conditions fNew Orthodoxy
Evenwhen dominant deas aredelegitimated,owever,change isnot automatic. onsolidation, ikecollapse,faces urdles hat eed nertia.ndividuals ay agree hatthe ld viewhas togo butmay notbe able toagree r
coordinate nwhat neworthodoxyhouldbe the uide.Such a dynamic asbeen chartednthe tudyf revolution,but it also exists n foreign olicydisputes nddebates.75 he consolidation f a new foreign olicyapproach ependsnot onlyon thecollapse f theoldideas, ut also on thedistributionf replacementdeas,especially he xistencefa prominentlternative.henthere reno developed lternativesrwhen there re
many equally trong lternatives,heresult ouldbe areturn othe ld thinkingue todefault nthefirstaseand deadlock mong factionsn the econd.For example, inQing China in thenineteenthentury,inocen
triceparationromhe ncroachingnternationalocietywas so dominant hat here erevirtuallyo groups fany import ithdevelopedreplacementdeastoguideChina's foreignolicy.76
The sustainabilityf a neworthodoxywhen prominentreplacementoes exist) ver longer eriodoftenhinges n somedemonstrationf its fficacy.deasthatendure o so becausethey ppeartogenerate esirableresults.hen those otions onot,revanchistsften indfertileround o rguefor returnothe ld ideas. hiswas the ase nWeimarGermany hen the esultsfVersailles nderminedhe iberalnternationalolicy f the
fledglingocialDemocraticgovernment.ersailles lsospawned he ay Fourth ovement n hina that elpeddiscreditledglingiberal emocracyotions.77
Figure depicts he ay that he istributionfreplacement ideasnd their emonstratedfficacyosterr inhibitchange.
This argumenteaturesdeas s ameshing ear-onethat nteractsithotherfactorsnd indoingso has itsown influence.ationalstrategieshereforere productofmulti-causal nfluence.rior deasplaya rolebutofcoursedo not unilaterallyetermine ll aspects fneworthodoxies.onsider, orxample,he ole f the elative
power factors, hichoften hapes egativendpositivefeedbacko revailingdeas. ominant onceptshatgnore
relativeower an leadtodisappointingesults hat ontribute o their elegitimation.onsider thedecline fthe ing-eratributeystemnd sinocentrismnder the
weightof superioruropeanand Japanese apabilitiesthat xposed heir ragilitynthe ate ineteenthentury.
Likewise, he umbernd nature f replacementdeas ocentral oconsolidations haped y the olitical ctivityand resourcesf interestroups nd individualshat romote them.conomic nterdependencend the romisesofgrowthnherentn it can indeed trengthenhose nfavorf such ideas.78 ong-term ffortshat ncourageinternationalxchange an facilitateherise f replace
ment ideas nparticularocieties.79hus the uccess fideas an alsobeshaped ythe egree countrys nvolvedinthe nternationalconomy.Overall, hen, he ccount fforeignolicy hange and
continuity)fferedere scontingent.tdepends n the
interactionf the ominant oreignolicy deas f stateswith the esultsncountered,swell as the istributionfreplacementdeas n a particularociety nd theirnitialsuccess,f ny. o stressontingencysnot toforgo xplanation.80 e can posit that uturententionsilldependon the egree owhich the xpectationsfparticularominant deas redefied y events, egative onsequencesresult,nd some ocially iablereplacementdea xists.
Thisgeneralogic eems ohavewideapplicationnthehistoryfgreat owers, nd though here redifferences,coversoth emocraticndauthoritarianegimes.8'hatfollowss a brief llustrationfhow someof the entral
dynamics aptured y the logicmightplayout in thefuturefChina's currentreformndopening" iewoninternationalrder escribedbove.
The Contingent Path ofChina'sFuture IntentionsThe argumentbovehighlights articular ignpostssimportantor nderstandinghatChinamightdowithits rowing ower nthefuture.ost centrally,he ongevityfChina's ntegrationistrthodoxyilldepend nthe xpectationst eneratesnthe omesticrena nd theresults hat reexperiencedcollapse onsiderations),s
well ason the ature f the deas hat ight replacentegrationconsolidationactors).address ach inturn.
524 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 12/21
justificationsndExpectations
Contemporaryhinese leaders ustifynd promote hedominantntegrationdea-i.e., "reformndopening"intwo ifferentays.The first,ndmost important,ustificationf current
policy s thatntegrationithin the xistingnternationalorder rovideshe estmeans for ational conomic evelopment.82hina remains governmentun y communistparty.et the egitimacyndpopular upportf thegovernmentoesnot rest n socialistdeology,ut nsteadon economic erformance.Well-offociety"ot "Workers nite" is the ational antra. resident iangemin's2002 address o the16thParty ongress ut this laimstarkly:
It is ssential or he arty o give toppriorityodevelopment ngoverningnd rejuvenatinghe ountry nd open up newprospectsfor hemodernization rive . . . theprogressivenessf theParty s oncrete nd historical, nd itmust be judgedbywhetherthe arty romotes he evelopment f the dvancedproductiveforces.83
The Fifth lenary f the 16th Party ongressof theCPC inOctober 2005 calleddevelopmentthe verriding rinciplend the ey to resolvingllproblems acingChina."84 he dominance f the ntegrationrientationincontemporaryhineseforeign olicy s largely asedon economic considerations.ntegrationccording othe reformndopening rthodoxyerveshina's rapiddevelopment.
The secondmajor justificationor ntegrationithinthe existing nternational rder is that it enhancessovereignty-understoodn termsf independencendterritorialntegrity.hat is, integrationhouldpreventthetype f colonialsubordinationf thepastand theinfringementf China by outsidepowers.A definingpoint fhistoryor he ommunist arty CPC) leadership sthe centuryfhumiliation"hina endured nderthe nfluencef imperialistowers e.g., he est, Japan).One of theCPC's main claims to authoritys that tliberatedhina from hat utsideinfluence.85ntegrationfacilitatesuch goal byprovidingccessto institu
tionalfora hereglobalpolitics redecidedthatmightaffecthina'sautonomy.uch integrationlsoprovidesthe mprintfmajor power tatus,onfirminghat hecountry s no longer implyn objectmanipulated ymorepowerfulestern ountriesrJapan, utan important ctor tself.The most concrete arker f sovereigntyor hina
today sTaiwan.China expects hat tsparticipationnthe xtant nstitutionsnd conventionsfworldpoliticswill help to fulfill desire seeminglyidespread crossthe oliticalpectrum)ounite hemainland ndTaiwan.Suchparticipationllows hina tostymieffortsyTai
wan to laim overeignnternationaltandingnd tobuilditS wn internationalupport.
These two themes,conomicmodernizationnd sovereignty,ay look closely inked o therealist ocus npower nd autonomy.he key ifference,owever,sthatChinese eadersustifyhem otbased n increasinghina'ssecurity,uton betteringhe iving tandardfChinese
citizens.ikewise,hina's bsession ith aiwan ndotherterritoriesshard tounderstandrom trictlypower erspective.ithout knowinghina'shistory nd the entralityfTaiwanto PC legitimacyains, t s mpossibletounderstandherole his ssue anplay nChinesepolitics nd securityecision-making.Economicdevelopmentnd sovereigntyanofcourse
alsobe intensionithone another, fact hat oesmuchtoexplain he omplexityfcontemporaryhinesepolicies.86 ntegrationan lead to deep inroadsn issues fsovereignty.orexample, embershipnthe orld TradeOrganization rings ith it numberfsignificantmpli
cations or he hinese social nd political rder, ot theleast fwhich ismajor turmoiln themassiveChineseagriculturalector ndgrowingnequalityithin hinesesociety.87
Anticipating ventsthat avor Change
The durabilityfChina's ntegrationistoreignolicy, herefore,illdepend n howresultsatch social xpectationsrelated o conomic rowthnd sovereignty.vents elatedtoChina's integrationhat epresentignificantetbacksto ither f those ssues ould beoccasions or hina to
rethinkntegration.The firstituationhere the ntegrationistrthodoxywould be vulnerable nvolves roublesnChina's economicmodernization.rom this iewpointand incontrast otherise fChina debate)themost likelycenarioinwhichChina will alter ts ntegrationistindset snot
with thegrowthfChinesepowerbut, instead, ajorrupturesn that rajectoryhat ould put thedominant"openness"iew n a slipperyefensive. reasonableasecan bemade that levelingfChineseeconomic rowthis as likelynthefutures isChina's rise osupremacy.88Especiallyis-'a-visurrenthinese xpectations,his ould
be a deeplydisillusioningxperiencefChina'sgovernment is somehowmplicated.hat is, n the bsence fdownturnshat ffectll countriesr unforeseenrises,criticsf the urrentrthodoxyill have ncentiveousefalteringhinese economicprospects o rally oliticalauthorityround new pproach o the nternationalystem. hemotivatingource n uch scenario ill be thecombinationf surprisingconomic etbacks ontrastedwithoptimisticxpectationsenerated y leaderseekinglegitimacy.
The decline f economic rowthould encourage reviouslyilentroups hatppose ntegration.hina'srapid
development as led todaunting apsbetween ich ndpoor.89 ocial protests nd disturbancesppear to have
September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 525
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 13/21
Articles IWhat ChinaWillWant
risen teadily n recent ears, ncreasingrom ,700 in1993 to87,000 in2005.90 Involvementn theWorldTradeOrganization W1TO) isputting ignificantressures npoor farmersnd peasants ho cannot ompete.As long s the conomy sbooming, ome f these eople
can transferoother ypes f jobsor the overnmentanprovide omeform f subsidy.91et if rowth altersn away thatmakes the overnmenteem omplicit,his ystem ooks rittle.
Second, ventsupportedythe nternationalommunitythat hina sees sneo-colonial rwhichmove Taiwan towards ndependenceould help toundermineChina'scurrentntegrationrthodoxy.or example, he1999bombing f the hineseembassynBelgrade uelednationalismnd strengthenedpponents f opening.92Much, of course, ill dependon theparticularircumstances ndwhether hey akeBeijinggovernmenteem
complicit.aiwanese ffortso establish ormalndependence ausedeepconcernn hina-indeed the ype hatcansetthe tage orhina to take ggressiveffortsn anissue eenas priority ven by "reformist"overnments.Taiwanese ndependenceffortsn2004-2005weremetbya strong andself-defeating)eaction romu JintaoandNationalPeople's ongress assingnti-secessionegislationhichauthorizedhina touse forcegainst ai
wan if t ontinued opushfor ndependence.93
Replacements or "Reformnd Opening"
Ifreformndopening oes falter,hat then?resumablysome sort f alternativeath.Anticipatinguch a newapproach, owever, epends n a keyfactorhat sespecially lusiventhe hinese case: the ature nddistribution freplacementdeasbout nternationalocietyithinChina.94 he outlines f three eplacementsrediscernable inanadmittedlypaqueview.95
The first as identifiedy Jiangemin as a challengeto his own "reformndopening" mphasis n theyearsfollowing he1989 TiananmenSquare fiasco.96 ianglabeled his hethreatrom he Right." or thegovernment,the anger rom he ight nvolveshose howould
attemptopursue conomic ndpolitical iberalizationtan evenmore rapid ace at the xpense f the artyndsocial tability.nrecentears he PC hasbeen speciallyfocusedn this hallengend hasgone togreat ffortolure uccessfulusinessmenntothe arty ndwelcomethereturnfChinese frombroadwhomightotherwisebe a voiceformore forcefulolitical hange. hinkhereof those ho havebenefitedost from apid ntegrationbutwho arenowchafingnder PC constraintsrbelieveChinamust take eformsothe ext evel e.g.rule f law,education)t a fasterace-e.g., the ewprivateusinessmen or state-ownednterprisexecutives,rtists r intel
lectuals,oastal ity regionsnd their fficials,r evenparts f the ureaucracyhat ave n interestn ntegration.
Jianglso dentifiedsecond roup ith lternativereferences or hina'sforeignolicy. e called t those ithleftistendencies"distinctrom he ldMarxistvariety)
who critique eform-and nternationalnvolvementas contributingo social njusticend inequality.n the
currentontext,his ight nclude armers,uralitizens,inlandities,ndparts fthe ilitaryrCommunist arty
who havenotsharedqually nChina'sdevelopmentndcouldrightlylamereformndopening rparticipationnthe lobal rder thinkTO) as the ause. nforeignolicy uch endenciesranslatento ocial upport or altingand reversinghina's integrationnthe urrentrder.fthe ommuniqueromhe ifthlenaryession fthe 6thParty ongress n ctober2005 is n indicator,he hallenge rom he eft-and the nequalityfgrowth-is ofparticularoncern othe eadershipfHu Jintaoho hasemphasized hemoreegalitarianoal f"harmoniousoci
ety"n ontrast oJiang'santra f"well-offociety."97A third osition ould comefromhose ho are ritical
ofglobalizationndwestern alues, ut arenotnecessarilyisolationistr anti-capitalist.hese peoplemight advocate nationalistealpolitikolicy hat avorsmore confrontationaltrategyith theWest, stabilitynd centralauthoritythome,whilepursuing soft ine nd integration nAsia.Thinkofthis erhaps,s the latform or heresurgencef amodern ay Middle ingdom" ole hereChinawould exercisencreasingegemony ithinAsiawhileperhaps istancingtselfrom verall nternationalorder.98
Absentbetternformation,twould appear that hosewhowould emphasize ithdrawal-either henew Leftorrealpolitikers-wouldccupy he hetoricaligh roundshouldfuturevents efy he opening" ustificationsfthe hinesegovernmentithclear isappointingesults.Both offergreaterifferenceithcurrentominantntegration deas Rightistsant evenmore integration)ndwould likelye ina better ositiontodrawoff he anguage fnationalismomake theirase.99 hinesestrategywill of coursealwaysbe amix of thesedifferentapproaches;he ssue sthe irectionfshiftnd the egreetowhichoneorientationominates.
To the xtent hat factionalccount fChinesepolitics is overdrawn e.g.,because thedecisionmakingdynamic s one of consensus, ot groupsfightingvercontrol) hen nychange nforeignolicythinkingilldemand specially egative esultsndcould take onsiderable ime, ust s itdid inQing China.'00 If there s acontinuedhared iew that isolation sthemajor factorexplaininghina's decline" nd "opening ueled hina'srise," hen hiftingignificantlywayfrom eformndopeningwould nothappenquickly.101lthoughnot sodominant s the eparatistentalityfQingChina, integrationtoday njoys privilegedtatus gainstwhich
replacementdeaproponents ay havea hard timemakingheadway.
526 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 14/21
Influencing IntentionsUnderstandinguturententionssa significantnd critical hallenge or oth scholars nd policymakers.haveargued hat neway (bynomeans the nlyway) tothinkaboutthe volutionfintentionss s aproductfchange
and continuityndominant deas bout foreign olicy.Situationsnvolvinghe ombinationfunmet xpectations nd undesiredonsequencesre likely ofacilitatecollapsewhile thosewhereconceptual xpectationsrefulfilledr desired onsequencesccurfavorhe ontinuity f orthodoxy.onsolidation f a new foreignolicyapproach-andhence set f intentions-is nhanced ythe xistencefa prominent eplacementdea that lignswithdesirable esults.
If this rguments right,t mplies hat nderstandingthe uturef a "risinghina"means looking eyond, utnotover, ower nd interdependence.he effectsfpower
and interdependencerecertainlymportantor nderstandinghina's ttitude owardsnternationalrder. elative ower asshaped hina'spast thinkingowards hedominant ules ndnorms f the nternationalystem.hepenetratingeopoliticaleachfWestern ower admuchtodowithwhy ingChinahad the ncentiveo hange tslong nduring ributaryystemnd sinocentrism.ikewise,the nterdependencepproach ightlyighlightsowthe pennessfChina andgrowthf internationalradeand contacts ashelped evelop onstituenciesnd liberalforcesn hina that therwise ightnotexist. ut thesetwo onstanttructuralorcesannot ccount or he ari
ation ver imen hinese deasbout owtorelateo nternational ociety.o do that emust lsoheedthe ontingentwaysthat oreignolicy deas elate o vents,swell as thereplacementdeas hat orm ithin hina.
In termsfpolicy, his rgumentautions gainst hechoice that xistsmongthe three ain alternativesnthe urrent .S. policy ebate: ngaging,ontaining,rhedging gainst herise fChina.Anymightbe appropriate ependingnwhatparticularolicy hina ispursuing ndhow that elates o the hinesegovernment'srationale or ts ctions. o the xtent eijing eadersreattemptingobuild theiruthoritynd legitimateheir
rulebasedon actions hat hallengenternationalrder,other tates hould bjecttoorpenalize uch ctions. orexample, .S. policiestoward heSovietUnion-e.g.,theCarterandReagan defense uildup,theresponseto theSovietdeploymentf new SS-20 Euromissiles,and the aid to theMuhjahadeen in thewake of theSoviet nvasionfAfghanistan-helped oundercut heBrezhnev correlationfforces"hinkinghatrgued hatthe xercisefSoviet ower erved he SSR's interests.The dynamic as not just balancing fpowerbut anunderminingf ideas.Likewise, houldChina pursueaggressive olicies thatundermine nternationalrder,
other ountries nd organizationshould sanction nddelegitimizehem.
The pointhere isnot to pursue hat hascome to betheperceived isdom indealing ithChina'sunknownfuturententions-i.e., hedging trategy.uch an approach ounsels hat he ther ountries repare hemselves orny ventualitynd respondnkind.However,
doing o suffersrom wo roblems.t is verlyassive nitsdependence n simply eactingowhat happens nChina.Andmost importantt s verly ocusednChina'sbehavior ndnot attentivenoughto the deasbehindaction and how they elate o thedomestic olitics fauthoritynChina.A simpleresponse o behaviormayunnecessarilytrengthenevisionistorcesnBeijing.
Ifthe oal sto ncorporatehina into he nternationalsystemn way that akes the ystemperaten fashionacceptableo ll,however,t s mportantoreinforcehoseChinese eadersndmovementshat ave taked heiregitimacyn the ositivespects f ntegration.modern-day
repeat f the nderminingf pro-liberalizationdvocatesbyWestern ction-as occurred hen the ersaillesreatyproduced heMay Fourth ovement and a reactionaryChina-would be adisaster.hismaymeanmakingnextraefforto ssureayoffso hina forarticularlyoldmovesintermsf integration-or n termsfrestraintis-a-visTaiwan. he point snotsimply o mpede ardlinersndhelp softliners.ndeed, oing ither ightbedesirabledependingn the deas nd xpectationsheyre romoting.
There is f course risk nsupportinghinese development hroughntegration.tmay lead-throughnforeseen vents,rmiscalculation,r inadequateupport-to
aChina that trengthensnough obedangerous,uthasnotyet hanged nough nternallyobe satisfiedith thenorms f the ystem.'02nsuch ircumstances,here ntegrationistdeas reundermined,hinamaywell looktoanother ndmuch less esirable et f ideas toguide itsforeignolicy.
To dealwith this cenario,tmakessense, hen, o beproactive-topayattentiono the otential eplacementideas irculatingnChina and their ackers-ones thatmaysomedayeconceptualings.or xample,t s mportant hat ong-termffortsemade tostrengthenhoseChinesegroups nd individuals ho would support,n
the vent f significantetbacks o reformndopening,replacementdeas hat remore desirable han n aggressive,eparatistationalistpproach oforeignolicy.herearehistoricalrecedentsor uch transformativenfluence. ffortsakenvermanyyears yavarietyfgroupsin the nitedStates and inBritain) fter orldWar Ihadmuch todowithwhy internationalisma fusingfgeopoliticsndWilsonianism)was a coherent eplacement for solationismnAmerican trategyfter orldWar II.103 ikewise uring he oldWar,U.S. andEuropean nteractionith neven ore uthoritarianndclosedSoviet nion helped new hinking"andnotsome ther
thinking)ake hape sa viablereplacementhen the ldSovietforeignolicy ogmadisintegrated.'04
September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 527
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 15/21
Articles IWhat China WillWant
Of course, he imitsfoutside nfluencen a countryofChina's size ndcomplexity,specially iven he opular hinesedesire orutonomyndnon-interferenceromforeigners,resignificant.oreover, hina'sauthoritariangovernmentnd lack f transparencyimit he bility
to losely ollownd shape nternalevelopments.hina'sfuturenthe orldwill be largelyf its wnmaking. etas seen nhistory,utside nfluenceas sometimeslayeda role in theevolution f China's approachto internationalociety-fromhepiumWars tothe ay FourthMovement to the arly old War periodto the urrentintegration.entral to this istory-and hina'sfuturearenot just the erils fpower r the romisesf interdependence,ut alsohow they elate o thewayChinathinksboutthe orld.
Notes1Zoellick2005.2 See, for example thehearings held from the summer
of 2006 up to now. http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/
hearingarchive.php3 Vice President sRemarks to theAustralian-American
Leadership Dialogue, Shangri-La Hotel Sydney,Australia, February 27, 2007. http://www.
whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/02/20070223.html
4 Johnston 2003.
5 Friedberg 2005 offersa typology and contingent
analysis of future relations that lacks a general explanation to telluswhether eventswill move in one
direction or another.
6 Copeland 2000a.
7 Friedberg 2005 documents that there is some varia
tion in this dichotomy?some who focus on power
do not see inevitable conflict and some liberals are
morepessimistic.
8 For a study that explores the linkbetween uncer
tainty about intentions and cooperativeor conflic
tual strategies, see Edelstein 2000.
9 The classic synthesisof power and interdependence
(without ideas) isKeohane andNye, 1977.10 See Snyder 1991 and Solingen 1998.
11 TheNational SecurityStrategy of theUnited States ofAmerica (March 2006) "seeks to encourage China to
make the right strategic choices for itspeople, whilewe hedge against other possibilities." http://www.
whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/. See also Carter and
Perry 2007, 16-22; Council on Foreign Relations,U.S.-China Relations: An AffirmativeAgenda, A
Responsible Course, Independent Task Force Report59 (April007).
12 Thomas 2001; Evangelista 1999.
13 SeeBull 1995.14 SeeMorgenthau 1966, 38ff;Wolters 1962, 81-102.
15 Rosecrance 1986.
16 JiangZemins Report at the 15* National Congress oftheCommunist Party ofChina, September 12, 1997.
http://www.fas.org/news/china/1997/970912-prc.htm; Hao andWang 1978, 171.
17 Pillsbury 2000.18 See Kent 2002; Johnston 2003, 2004a.
19 Cf.Wang 2000 and Johnston 2001.
20 Such themes are common in speeches from the
1970s. See for example, thekeynote speeches at the
10th 1973) and 11th 1978)Party ongresses.n
Jiang's address to the 16thNational Congress of the
Chinese Communist Party inNovember 2002, therewas virtually no mention of this traditional role.Hu
Jintao's leadership has placed somewhat more em
phasis on it.
21 Ross 1997.
22 The fiveprinciples, which have been included in theChinese constitution, are 1) respect for sovereignty2) non-aggression 3) non-interference 4) equal and
mutual benefit 5) peaceful co-existence.
23 JiangZemins Report to the 16th ational Congress
of theChinese Communist Party,November 8,2002. http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/49007.htm. Chinas recent "reassurance diplomacy"in South East Asia suggests amode of cooperative
leadership not easily equated with domination or
balancing behavior, but isnonetheless compatiblewith extant norms. SeeMedeiros and Fravel 2003;
Shambaugh 2005.24 Wen, 2007. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/
2007-03/03/content_818952.htm
25 As quoted inWestad et al. 1998, 135.
26 Yardley and Lague 2007 and Office of the SecretaryofDefense, 2006.
27 Crane et al. 2005 andAnnual Report toCongress: The
Military Power of thePeoples Republic ofChina 2006.
28 See Foot 2000; Barkin 1998; Payne and Samhat
2004.
29 Ramos 2004.
30 "Building of Political Democracy inChina," Infor
mation Office of the State Council of the People'sRepublic ofChina, October 2005, Beijing, http://
news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-10/19/content_3645750.htm. and Kahn 2007.
31 Foot 2000, 3.
32 Chinas respect forhuman rightssaw a downturn in
2006 as China cracked down on dissent likely in
anticipation of the 2008 Olympics. See Human
RightsWatch, World Report 2007. http://hrw.org/englishwr2k7/docs/2007/01/11 /chinai4867.htm.Small advances are also sometimes made. For exam
ple, theHuman RightsWatch report in 2005 noted
thatChina amending its constitution inMarch2004 to include guarantees on private property and
528 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 16/21
human rights "signals a growing acknowledgment of
human rights."Human RightsWatch, "Human
Rights Overview: China," inWorld Report 2005.
http://hrw.Org/english/docs/2005/01/13/china9809.htm.
33 Zhang 1998, 177-193; Wen 2007.34 Gilpin 1981, 187. See also Zakaria 1992.
35 Mearsheimer 2001, 402.
36 Roy 1994, 149-168, 159-160.
37 Geyer 1981, 107.
38 Hong Kong Jingbao, No. 172 (5November 1991),
84-86, inFBIS-CHI, 6November 1991, 28-30 as
cited inWhiting 1995.
39 Quoted inMosher 2001, ch. 1.
40 See Copeland 2000b.
41 E.g., seeOrganski and Kugler 1980; Gilpin 1981;Kim andMorrow 1992; Copeland 2000b. For dif
ferent strategiesofmanaging such a situation, seeSchweller 1999.
42 Waldron 1995.
43 For an argument thatChina has a long strategictradition of realpolitik thought, see Johnston 1995.
44 Pillsbury000;Qin 2001.45 In theChinese case see,Dittmer 1995, 1-39.
46 Gilbert1987,185-20447 For a variety of examples, seeWalt 1987; Snyder
1991; Stein and Rosecrance 1993; Kupchan 1994.
48 Most power transitions occur without conflict. See
De Soysa, Oneal, and Park 1997.
49 Relative power isgiven as a composite of the relativeshare of absolute total global data on six categories:
energy consumption, iron& steel production, mili
taryexpenditure, military personnel, total population, and urban population. See National Material
Capabilities Study (v3.01) http://www.correlatesof
war.org and Singer et al. 1972, Singer 1987.
50Walt 1987;Schweller006.51 Lemke 2002. Ruggie 1982 speaks to theneed to
consider purpose as well aspower.
52 Johnston 2001.
53 Frieden and Rogowski, 1996.
54 The index number of 100 for real disposable incomein 1978 was equal to 343.4 RMB. See http://
chinadataonline.org/member/yearbook/default.
asp?StartYear= 1984&EndYear=2006.
55 www.chinadataonline.org. For data prior to 1985,seeChina Statistical Yearbook, 633.
56 StatisticalReports on theDevelopment ofChinese
Internet, available athttp://www.cnnic.net.cn/en/
index/index.htm
57 Rosecrance 1986; Russett and Oneal 2000.
58 Johnston 2004b, 603-628.
59 Zhao 2000, 11-12; Johnson 2003, 551-554.
60 Building on arguments offeredby scholars,Chinasleaders such asGeneral SecretaryHu Jintao and
PremierWen Jaibao have argued thatChinas mod
ernization depends on peace and thatChina's "rise"
would not lead to policies thatpose threatsor come
at the expense of other countries. See Suettinger2004. (http://www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org/
20044/rs.pdfandZheng2005.61 For a synthesisof the two thatovercomes some of
these problems, seeCopeland 2003.
62 See Garrett and Lang 1996. It also applies to social
ization arguments about China aswell.
63 For an argument thatChina isunlikely to liberalize
in any foreseeable time frame seeMann 2007.
64 Waldron 2004.
65 Mansfield and Snyder 1995; Snyder 2000. Gries
2004.
66 The Western powers of course had a sayon this
outcome as well. U.S.policy after Mao came to
power was largelyaimed at isolatingChina.67 Trade data is the total currentvalue of imports and
exports over the total currentGDP. See http://
chinadataonline.org/member/macroy/.68 Berman 2001; Adler 2002.
69 See Anderson 1983; Halbwachs 1992; Kertzer 1988.
70 E.g., themission statement for theUnited States
Department of State is "Create a more secure, demo
cratic,and prosperousworldfor thebenefitof the
American people and the international community'?see
http://www.state.gov/rn/rm/rls/dosstrat/2004/23503.htm. On the general organizational dynamic
see Selznick, 1949, 69-70, 250-259; Selznick 1957,16;Wilson 1989.
71 May 1962.
72 SeeToby 1997,323-364;Adler 1957.73 May 1962, 667.
74 Gong 1984; Zhang 1991.
75 On consolidation in the literatureon revolutions,see e.g.,Goldstone 1991.
76 As the future revolutionary Sun Yatsen wrote to
an official in 1893, "the reasonwhy we have not
achieved much (relative to other countries thathad
opened up); public opinion and entrenched ideas
simplywill not allow it."Mitter 2004, 32.77 See Hunt 1996, 77ff.
78 This is the thrustof Frieden and Rogowski 1996
and ties inwell with Copeland 2003.
79 See Keck and Sikkink 1998; Thomas 2001.
80 Friedberg 2005 rightlypoints out the difficultyof
predicting the futurewhen itdepends on events that
we cannot foresee.Nonetheless, it ispossible to
explicate the conditions andmechanisms throughwhich eventswill produce differentfutures.
81 See Legro 2005.
82 Downs and Saunders 1998/99 argue thatChina has
valued economic development ahead of nationalistgoals.
September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 529
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 17/21
Articles IWhat China Will Want
83 JiangZemins Report to the 16th ational Congress oftheChinese Communist Party-, ewsmith 2003, 3.
See too recent speeches byHu Jintao, successor to
Jiang, that offer similar themes, e.g. "PresidentHu
Outlines Work Agenda for2005," http://www.
chinaembassy.org.il/eng/xwdt/tl78046.htm.84 Communique of the 15thCPC Central Commit
tee Plenum, October 9-11, 2005. http://www.
china.org.cn/english/features/45280.htm.85 Lampton 2001, 25Iff.; Zhao 2004. For an example
of thisview of history seeChinas October 2005
white paper "Building Political Democracy in
China," especially Section I, "AChoice Suited to
Chinas Conditions."
86 Wu2001.
87 Riskin and Khan 2000; Lardy 2002; Eckholm
2002, 1;Kahn 2004a, 2004b.
88 Goldstein and Lardy 2004. Dollar 2005, 48-58.89 Wang et al. 2007. www.l32.203.59.36:81/Group/
papers/papers/PMMA-2007-07.pdf.90 Data based on figures released byChinas Public
Security Bureau, www.zonaeuropa.com/
20061115_l.htm. See also Tanner 2004, 137-156.
91 Lin2007.92 See Zhen 2000; Gries 2004.
93 Cody 2005.94 Seasoned China specialists
note thedifficultyas
sessing thenature and strengthof competing coali
tions, e.g., Christensen 2003, 4-6.
95 On differentfactions, see Swaine and Tellis 2000,83-86; Johnston 2003; Yan 2001, 35; Deng and
Gray 2001, 5-16. In general, seeDittmer 1995,
1-39; Nathan 1973, 33-66.
96 JiangZemins Report at the 14* National Congress oftheCommunist Party ofChina, 1992.
97 "Chinese Communist Party Fifth Plenary Session
Communiqu??Text," Xinhua News Agency Do
mestic Service, Beijing, October 11, 2005; Kahn
2005; Li 2005a, 2006.
98 Kang 2004, 165-81; Khoo and Smith 2005,
196-205.
99 E.g., the appeal to in-group/out-group biases?seeGries 2004.
100 Heer 2000, Li 2005a.
101 Yan 2001, 35.
102 Christensen 2006, 81-126.
103Divine 1967;Cull 1990.104 In the Soviet case, see Lynch 1987; Checkel 1997;
Evangelista 1999; Richmond 2003.
References
Adler, Emanuel. 2002. Constructivism and international
relations. InHandbook of nternational Relations, ed.
Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons.London: Sage Publications.
Adler, Selig. 1957. The Isolationist Impulse.New York:
Free Press.
Anderson, Benedict. 1983. Imagined Communities:
Reflectionsupon theOrigin and Spread of ationalism.
2d ed. London: Verso.
Barkin, Samuel. 1998. The evolution of the constitutionof sovereigntyand the emergence of human rightsnorms.Millennium 27 (2): 29-53.
Berman, Sheri. 2001. Ideas, norms, and culture in
political analysis. Comparative Politics 33 (2):
231-50.
Bull, Hedley. 1995. The Anarchical Society: a Study ofOrder inWorld Politics. 2d ed. New York: Columbia
University Press.
Carter, Ashton, andWilliam Perry.2007. China on the
march. National Interest 88 (March/April), 16-22.
Checkel, Jeffrey 1997. Ideas and International Political
Change: Soviet/RussianBehavior and the nd of theCold War. New Haven: Yale University Press.
"Chinese Communist Party FifthPlenary Session
Communiqu??Text." 2005. Xinhua News AgencyDomestic Service, Beijing, October 11.
Christensen, Thomas. 2003. The PartyTransition:Will
itbring a new maturity inChinese securitypolicy?China LeadershipMonitor 5,Winter, http://www.
chinaleadershipmonitor.org/20031 /tc.html,4-6.
-. 2006. Fostering stabilityor creating amonster?
The riseof China and U.S. policy toward East Asia.
International Security 31 (1): 81-126.
Cody, Edward. 2005. "China SendsWarning toTaiwanwith Anti-Secession Law." Washington Post,March 8,
A12.
Copeland, Dale. 2000a. The constructivist challenge to
structural realism:A review essay. International Secu
rity 5 (2): 187-212.-. 2000b. Origins of ajor War. Ithaca: Cornell
University Press.-. 2003. Economic interdependence and the future
ofU.S.-Chinese relations. In International Relations
Theory and theAsia-Pacific, ed. G. John Ikenberryand Michael Mastanduno. New York: Columbia
University.Council on Foreign Relations. 2007. U.S.-China Rela
tions:An AffirmativeAgenda, A Responsible Course.
Independent Task Force Report 59 (April).Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan S.Medeiros, JamesC.
Mulvenon, andWilliam H. Overholt. 2005. Modern
izingChina'sMilitary: Opportunities and Constraints.
SantaMonica, CA: Rand Corporation.Cull, Nicholas John. 1990. SellingWar: The British
Propaganda Campaign againstAmerican Neutrality in
World War II. New York: Oxford University Press.
Deng, Yong, and SherryGray. 2001. Introduction:
Growing pains?China debates its international future.Journal ofContemporary China 10 (26): 5-16.
530 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 18/21
De Soysa, Indra, JohnR. Oneal, and Yong-Hee Park.
1997. Testing power-transition theoryusing alterna
tivemeasures of national capabilities. Journal ofCon
flict Resolution 41 (4): 509-28.
Dittmer, Lowell. 1995. Chinese informalpolitics. China
Journal34 (July): 1-34.Divine, Robert A. 1967. Second Chance: The Triumph of
Internationalism inAmerica duringWorld War II. New
York: Atheum.
Dollar, David. 2005. Chinas economic problems (and
ours).Milken InstituteReview 7 (3): 48-58.
Downs, Erica Strecker,and Philip C. Saunders. 1998/99.
Legitimacy and the limits of nationalism: China and
theDiadyu Island. InternationalSecurity23 (3): 114-46.
Eckholm, Eric. 2002. "Leaner Factories, FewerWorkers
BringMore Labor Unrest toChina." New YorkTimes,
March 19.
Edelstein, David. 2000. Managing uncertainty: Beliefsabout intentions and the riseof great powers. SecurityStudies 12 (1): 1-40.
Evangelista, Matthew. 1999. Unarmed Forces: The Trans
nationalMovement to nd theCold War. Ithaca: Cor
nell University Press.
Fewsmith, Joseph. 2003. The SixteenthNational Party
Congress: The succession thatdidn't happen. China
Quarterly 173 (3): 1-16.
Foot, Rosemary. 2000. Rights beyondBorders: theGlobal
Community and theStruggle over uman Rights in
China. New York: Oxford University Press.
Friedberg,Aaron L. 2005. The futureof U.S.-Chinarelations: Is conflict inevitable? International Security30 (2):7-45.
Frieden, Jeffry., and Ronald Rogowski. 1996. The
impact of the international economy on national policies:An analytical overview. In Internationalization
andDomestic Politics, ed.Robert O. Keohane andHelen
V. Milner. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Garrett, Geoffrey, and Peter Lang. 1996. International
ization, institutions, and political change. In Inter
nationalization and Domestic Politics, ed. Robert O.
Keohane and Helen Milner. New York: Cambridge
University Press.Geyer,Michael. 1981. Professionals and Junkers:Ger
man rearmament and politics in theWeimar Republic. In Social Change and Political Development in
Weimar Germany, ed. Richard Bessel and E. J.
Feuchtwanger. London: Croom Helm.
Gilbert, Margaret. 1987. Modeling collective beliefs.
Synthese73(1): 185-204.
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change inWorld Politics.
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Goldstein, Morris, andNicholas Lardy. 2004. "What
Kind of Landing for theChinese Economy?" Institute
for International Economics, Policy Briefs in International Economics, PB04-7, November.
Goldstone, JackA. 1991. Revolution and Rebellion in the
EarlyModern World. Berkeley: University of Califor
nia Press.
Gong, GerritW. 1984. The Standard of "Civilization" in
International Society.Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Gries, PeterHays. 2004. Chinas New Nationalism: Pride,Politics and Diplomacy. Berkeley: University ofCali
fornia Press.
Halbwachs, Maurice. 1992. On CollectiveMemory. Ed.
and trans.Lewis Coser. Chicago: University of Chi
cago Press.
Hao Yen-p'ing, and Erh-minWang. 1978. ChangingChinese views ofWestern relations, 1840-1895.
In The Cambridge History ofChina, vol. 2, ed. JohnK. Fairbank. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Heer, Paul. 2000. A house united. ForeignAffairs79 (4):18-25.
Human RightsWatch. 2005. "Human Rights Overview:China." InWorld Report 2005 http://hrw.org/
english/docs/2005/01 /13/china9809.htm.-. 2007. World Report 2007. http://hrw.org/
englishwr2k7/docs/2007/01/11 /chinai4867.htm.
Hunt, Michael. 1996. Genesis ofChinese Communist
Foreign Policy.New York: Columbia University Press.
Information Office of the State Council of the People's
Republic ofChina. 2005. "Building of Political
Democracy inChina." October, Beijing, http://news.
xinhuanet.com/english/2005-10/19/content_3645750.htm.
JiangZemins Report at the 14thNational Congress of theCommunist Party ofChina, 1992. Reprinted inChina
Documents Annual, ed. Peter R. Mood, vol. 4. Gulf
Breeze, FL: Academic International Press.
JiangZemins Report at the 15thNational Congress of the
Communist Party ofChina, September 12, 1997.
http://www.fas.org/news/china/1997/970912-prc.htm.
JiangZemins Report to the 16thNational Congress oftheChinese Communist Party,November 8, 2002.
http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/49007.htm
Johnson, Ian. 2003. The death and lifeofChina's civil
society.Perspectives onPolitics 1 (3): 551-54.Johnston,Alastair Iain. 1995. Cultural Realism: Strategic
Culture and Grand Strategy inChineseHistory. Prince
ton: Princeton University Press.-. 2001. Treating international institutions as social
environments. International Studies Quarterly 45 (4):
487-515.-. 2003. IsChina a statusquo power? International
Security27 (4): 5-56.-. 2004a. Beijing's securitybehavior in theAsian
Pacific: IsChina a dissatisfied power? InRethinking
Security inEast Asia: Identity,Power, and Efficiency,
ed.Allen Carlson, PeterKatzenstein, and J.J.Suh.Stanford: StanfordUniversity Press.
September 2007 1 ol. 5/No. 3 531
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 19/21
Articles IWhat ChinaWillWant
-. 2004b. Chinese middle class attitudes towards
international affairs:Nascent liberalization? China
Quarterly 179: 603-28.
Kahn, Joseph. 2004a. "Chinas Elite Learn to Flaunt It
While theNew LandlessWeep." New YorkTimes
December 25, Al.-. 2004b. "Chinas 'Haves' Stir the 'Have-nots' to
Violence." New YorkTimes December 31.-. 2005. "China Approves Plan toEaseWealth
Gap." New YorkTimes, October 11.
-. 2007. "In China Talk ofDemocracy Is SimplyThat." New YorkTimes,April 20.
Kang, David. 2004. Hierarchy, balancing, and empirical
puzzles inAsian international relations. International
Security28 (3): 165-81.
Keck, Margaret, and Kathryn Sikkink. 1998. Activists
beyondBorders. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Kent, Ann. 2002. China's international socialization:The role of international organizations. Global Gover
nance 8 (3): 346-64.
Keohane, Robert, and Joseph S. Nye. 1977. Power and
Interdependence:World Politics inTransition. Boston:
Little, Brown.
Kertzer, David. 1988. Ritual, Politics, and Power. New
Haven: Yale University Press.
Khoo, Nicholas, and Michael Smith. 2005. China en
gagesAsia? Caveat lector:A response toDavid Sham
baugh. International Security30 (1): 196-205.
Kim,Woosang, and JamesD. Morrow. 1992.When do
power shifts lead towar? American Journal of oliticalScience 36 (4): 896-922.
Kupchan, Charles A. 1994. The Vulnerability of mpire.Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Lampton, David. 2001. Same Bed, DifferentDreams:
Managing US-China Relations 1989-2000. Berkeleyand Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Lardy,Nicholas R. 2002. IntegratingChina into theGlobal
Economy.Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
Legro, Jeffrey 2005. Rethinking theWorld: Great
Power Strategiesand International Order. Ithaca: Cor
nell University Press.
Lemke, Douglas. 2002. Regions ofWar and Peace. Cam
bridge: Cambridge University Press.
Li Cheng. 2005a. Hu's policy shift nd theTuanpai's
coming of age. China LeadershipMonitor, 15
Summer, http://www.chinaleadershipmoni tor.org/
20053/lc.html.-. 2005b. The new bipartisanship within theChi
nese Communist Party.Orbis 49 (3): 387-400.-. 2006. China's inner-partydemocracy: Toward a
systemof "one party, two factions." China Brief6 (24), December 6, http://www.jamestown.org/
china_brief/article.php?articleid=2373247
Lin, Joseph. 2007. In a fortnight?Beijing looking afterthe ruralpoor. China Brief 7 (5),March 8, http://
www.jamestown.org/china_brief/article.php?articleid=2373275
Lynch, Allen. 1987. The Soviet Study of nternational
Relations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mann, James. 2007. The China Fantasy. New York:
Viking.Mansfield, Edward D., and Jack Snyder. 1995. Democ
ratization and thedanger ofwar. International Security20 (1): 5-38.
May, Ernest R. 1962. The nature of foreignpolicy: The
calculated versus the axiomatic. Daedalus 91 (4):653-67.
Mearsheimer, John J.2001. The Tragedy ofGreat Power
Politics.New York: Norton.
Medeiros, Evan S. andM. Taylor Fravel. 2003. China's
new diplomacy. ForeignAffairs 82 (6): 22-35.
Mitter, Rana. 2004. A BitterRevolution: Chinas Struggle
with the odern World. New York: Oxford UniversityPress.
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1966. Politics amongNations: The
Struggle or Power and Peace. 3d ed.New York: Alfred
A. Knopf.Mosher, Steven. 2001. Hegemon: Chinas Plan to omi
nateAsia and theWorld. San Francisco: Encounter
Books.
Nathan, Andrew. 1973. A factionalism model for
CCP politics. China Quarterly 53 (Jan./Mar.):34-66.
Organski, A. F.K., and JacekKugler. 1980. TheWar
Ledger. Chicago: University ofChicago Press.
Payne, Rodger A., andNayef H. Samhat. 2004.
Democratizing Global Politics; Discourse Norms, Inter
national Regimes, and Political Community. Albany:StateUniversity ofNew York Press.
Pillsbury,Michael. 2000. China Debates the uture
SecurityEnvironment.Washington, DC: National
Defense University Press.
Qin Yaqing. 2001. A response toYong Deng: Power
perception and the cultural lens.Asian Affairs:An
American Review 28 (3): 155-58.-. 2003. National identity, strategic culture and
security interest: hree hypotheses on the interactionbetween China and international society. SUS Journal
1, available at http://www.siis.org.cn/english/journal/en20031 -2/qinyaqing.htm.
Ramos, JoshuaCooper. 2004. The Beijing Consensus.
London: Foreign Policy Centre.
Richmond, Yale. 2003. Cultural Exchange and theCold
War: Raising the ron Curtain. University Park: Penn
StateUniversity Press.
Riskin, Carl, and Azizur Rahman Khan. 2000. Inequal
ity nd Poverty inChina in theAge ofGlobalization.
New York: Oxford University Press.
Rosecrance, Richard. 1986. The Rise of theTrading State.New York: Basic Books.
532 Perspectives on Politics
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 20/21
Ross, Robert S. 1997. Beijing as a conservative power.
Foreignffairs6 (2): 33-44.
Roy, Denny. 1994. Hegemon on the horizon? China's
threat toEast Asian security. nternational Security 19
(1) 149-168.
Ruggie, JohnGerard. 1982. International regimes,transactions, and change: Embedded liberalism in the
postwar economic order. International Organization36 (2): 379-415.
Russett, Bruce, and JohnOneal. 2000. TriangulatingPeace: Democracy, Interdependence,and International
Organizations. New York: Norton.
Schweller, Randall. 1999. Managing the riseof great
powers: History and theory. InEngaging China: The
Management ofa Rising Power, ed. Alastair Iain
Johnston and Robert Ross. New York: Routledge.-. 2006. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints
on theBalance of ower. Princeton: Princeton UniversityPress.
Selznick, Phillip. 1949. 7144 and theGrass Roots:A Study
of olitics and Organization. Berkeley: University of
California Press.
-. 1957. Leadership inAdministration: A Sociological
Interpretation.New York: Harper & Row.
Shambaugh, David. 2005. China engagesAsia: Reshap
ing the regional order. International Security29 (3):64-99.
Singer, J.David. 1987. Reconstructing theCorrelates of
War Dataset onMaterial Capabilities of States, 1816
1985. International Interactions 14:115-32.
Singer, J.David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey.1972. Capability distribution, uncertainty, andmajor
power war, 1820-1965. InPeace, War, andNumbers,
ed. Bruce Russett. BeverlyHills: Sage.
Snyder, Jack. 1991.Myths of mpire. Ithaca: Cornell
University Press.
-. 2000. From Voting toViolence: Democratization
andNationalist Conflict.New York: Norton.
Solingen, Etel. 1998. Regional Orders at Century sDawn:
Global and Domestic Influences onGrand Strategy.Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press.
State Statistical Bureau, People's Republic ofChina,Beijing. China Statistical Yearbook 1996. Beijing:China Statistical Publishing House.
Stein,Arthur, and Richard Rosecrance, eds. 1993. The
Domestic Bases ofGrand Strategy. Ithaca: Cornell
University Press.
Suettinger,Robert L. 2004. The rise and descent of
"peaceful rise."China LeadershipMonitor 12, http://
www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org/20044/rs.pdfSwaine,Michael, andAshley Tellis. 2000. Interpreting
Chinas Grand Strategy:Past, Present, and Future. Santa
Monica: Rand Corporation.
Tanner, Murray Scot. 2004. China rethinksunrest.Washington Quarterly 27 (3): 137-56.
Thomas, Daniel C. 2001. The Helsinki Effect: nter
nationalNorms, Human Rights, and the emise ofCommunism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Toby, Ronald. 1997. Reopening the question of Sakoku:
Diplomacy in the legitimation of theTokugawa
Bakufu. Journal of apanese Studies 3 (2): 323-64.United States. Department of Defense. Office of the
Secretary of Defense. 2006. Annual Report toCongress:
Military Power of thePeoples Republic ofChina, http://
www.dod.mil/pubs/pdfs/China%20Report%
202006.pdf.Waldron, Arthur. 1995. Deterring China. Commentary
100 (4): 17-21.-. 2004. How would democracy change China?
Orte 48 (2):247-61.Walt, Stephen. 1987. The Origins ofAlliance. Ithaca:
Cornell University Press.
Wang, Hongying. 2000. Multilateralism inChinese
foreign policy. In Chinas International Relations in the
21st Century:Dynamics of aradigm Shifts,ed.Weix
ingHu, Gerald Chan, and Daojiong Zha. Lanham:
University Press ofAmerica.
Wang, Sangui, et al. 2007. "Inequality and Poverty in
China during Reform." PMMA Working Paper2007-07, March. www.l32.203.59.36:81/Group/
papers/papers/PMMA-2007-07.pdf.Wen, Jiabao. 2007. "Our Historical Tasks at the Primary
Stage of Socialism and Several IssuesConcerningChinas Foreign Policy." China Daily, February 27,
http ://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-03/03/content_818952.htm
Westad, Odd Ame, Chen Jian, SteinTonnesson,
Nguyen Vu Tung, and JamesG. Hershberg, eds.
1998. 77 Conversations Between Chinese and ForeignLeaders on theWars in Indochina, 1964-1977. Wash
ington,DC: Cold War InternationalHistory Project.
Whiting, Allen. 1995. Chinese nationalism and foreign
policy afterDeng. China Quarterly 142 (June):295-316.
Wilson, JamesQ. 1989. Bureaucracy.New York: Basic
Books.
Wolfers, Arnold. 1962. Discord and Collaboration: Essayson International Politics. Baltimore: JohnsHopkinsPress.
Wu, Xinbo. 2001. Four contradictions constrainingChinas foreign policy behavior. Journal ofContempo
rary hina 10 (27): 293-301.
Yan, Xuetong. 2001. The rise of China inChinese eyes.
Journal ofContemporaryChina 10 (26): 33-39.
Yardley, Jim, and David Lague. 2007. "Beijing Acceler
atesDefense Spending." New YorkTimes,March 5.
Zakaria, Fareed. 1992. Realism and domestic politics: A
review essay. International Security 17 (1): 177-98.
Zhang, Yongjin. 1991. China in the nternational System,1918-1920. London: PalgraveMacmillan.
September 2007 jVol. 5/No. 3 533
This content downloaded from 112.204.142.87 on Wed, 2 Oct 2013 21:15:22 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
8/13/2019 What China Will Want
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/what-china-will-want 21/21
Articles IWhat ChinaWillWant
-. 1998. China in International Society since 1949:
Alienation and Beyond. New York: St.Martin's Press.
Zhao, Suisheng. 2000. Introduction: China's democrati
zation reconsidered. InChina and Democracy: Recon
sidering theProspects or a Democratic China, ed.
Suisheng Zhao. New York: Routledge.-. 2004. A Nation State byConstruction:Dynamics
of odern Chinese Nationalism. Stanford,CA: Stan
fordUniversity Press.
Zhen, Yongnian. 2000. Nationalism, globalism, and
China's international relations. In Chinas Inter
national Relations in the 1st Century: Dynamics of
Paradigm Shifts,ed.Weixing Hu, Gerald Chan,and Daojiong Zha. Lanham: University Press of
America.
Zheng, Bijian. 2005. China's "Peaceful Rise" to great
power status.ForeignAffairs 84 (5): 18-24.Zoellick, Robert B. 2005. "Whither China: From Mem
bership toResponsibility?" Remarks toNational
Committee on U.S.-China Relations, New York,
September 21, http://www.state.gOv/s/d/rem/53682.htm
534 Perspectives on Politics