Dr. al-Dagher examines what public opinion in Iraq tells us about the country’s most serious challenges and what strategies might best address these underlying problems.
ISIL in Iraq: A disease or just the symptoms? A public opinion analysis Munqith M. Dagher IIACSS, Iraq Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Transcript
ISIL in Iraq: A disease or just the symptoms? A public opinion
analysis Munqith M. Dagher IIACSS, Iraq Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
Terrorist Organizations in Iraq (Sunni area) Al-Qaida: Very
active since 2004 to 2010 ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant): Appeared in Syria in 2013 as one of the main actors there
Used by Asad to justify the suppression of the revolution hand and
gain international support. ISIL began gaining ground in Anbar
after the Iraqi central government ignored demonstrators demands
there. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
What is ISIL? ISIL is the latest and most powerful incarnation
of what began as an al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq following the 2003
US-led invasion. American forces spent years and enormous resources
to bring the group largely to heel before US troops pulled out of
the country in December of 2011. Since then, the region has been
embroiled in political turmoil and sectarian violence. ISIL has
seized on those Sunni-Shiite tensions to galvanize its Sunni
extremist followers. The group is led by an ambitious Iraqi
militant known by his nom de guerre, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Nation
wide survey 8th June 2014
What is ISIL? The Syrian uprising, which began in 2011, opened
the door to his greater ambitions. Al-Baghdadi dispatched militants
to Syria to establish a group called the Nusra Front. Initially,
more moderate Syrian rebels welcomed the group's experienced
fighters, but ISIL alienated rebels and Syrian civilians alike with
its brutality and attempts to impose its strict interpretation of
Islam. Eventually, ISILs presence in Syria proved so destabilizing
that it fell out with the Nusra Front. Their mutual patron at the
time, al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri, formally disavowed ISIL.
Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
What is ISIL? ISIL fought as al-Qaidas Iraq branch against US
forces during the years of American occupation in Iraq, but broke
away from al-Qaida after joining the civil war in Syria. ISIL now
claims that the group founded by Osama bin Laden is not extreme
enough Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
ISIL in Mosul Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, fell out
of the control of the Iraqi central government on the 9th of June
2014. Most international media reported that ISIL took control of
Mosul, but is that correct? Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
About Mosul The population of Mosul is around 2,000,000. Most
are Arab Sunni. Total number of security forces in Mosul was
between 120,000 to 150,000 armed with light, medium, and heavy
weapons including tanks and aircraft. The highest number of ISIL
fighters reported by media was 500. Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Who is fighting in Mosul and other Sunni areas in Iraq? Only
10-20% of military gains are attributed to ISIL, but the groups
reputation is now gaining more influence internally due to the
inflated media coverage. Several Iraqi armed groups under the
control of: 1- Baathist (Jihad and Liberty Front) with 6 armed
groups under their control. 2- Moderate Islamist 3- Tribal rebels
Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going
in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the
wrong direction? 11 10.8 11 82.7 81 85 January Febrauray March
Wrong direction Right direction
I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may
have. Please tell me which one of these is the most important for
the Iraqi government to address. 34.1 29.6 30.1 31.5 29.6 21.7 36.8
26 10.9 19.7 13.5 14 10.9 15.9 16.5 21 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
January Febrauray March April Security Unemployment Sectarianism
Corruption
Respondents were worried about certain situations which may
occur in Iraq. 66% of respondents were worried about an
international conflict involving their country, 81% were worried
about a terrorist attack and 65% of Iraqi respondents were worried
about a civil war. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
23.8 75.3 .9 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Agree
somewhat with Statement B Agree strongly with Statement B
DNK/Refused Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki is not moving our
government or country to where we need to be and now it is time for
a change that requires us to choose a new prime minister.
Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki is not moving our government or
country to where we need to be and now it is time for a change that
requires us to choose a new prime minister. 0.9 23.8 75.3
DNK/Refused Agree somewhat with the statement Agree strongly with
the statement
10.5 74.6 15.0 It was necessary for Maliki to concentrate
powers in his office It would be better for Iraq to distribute
powers more evenly DNK/Refused Over his two terms as prime
minister, Nuri al-Maliki has increased the power of his office at
the expense of other branches of government, for example the
parliament and the courts. What do you say ?
Who is the most responsible for the current situation in
Al-Anbar? 20.0% 10.9% 8.2% 22.7% 10.0% 33.0% 21.2% 8.2% 1.8% 4.5%
7.3% 14.5% 24.0% 11.7% 10.9% 11.8% 19.1% 22.7% 22.7% 9.5% 13.5%
46.4% 59.1% 54.5% 35.5% 45.5% 26.0% 42.3% 14.5% 16.4% 13.6% 11.8%
7.3% 7.5% 11.3% Nineveh (Mosul) At-Ta'm (Kirkuk) Salah Ad Din
(Tikrit) Diyala (Baqubah) Al-Anbar (Ramadi) Baghdad Total Al-Qaeda
Tribal armed groups Local officials Iraq state officials Other
sources from outside Iraq
Sunni agreement with ISIL can not last long. Why? 1- Support
for Secular Politics: A much higher percentage of Sunnis, even
higher than Kurds in some years, believe that Iraq would be a
better place if religion and politics were separated. Support for
secularism among Sunnis has increased from 60% in 2004 to more than
81% in 2013. By contrast, support for secular politics among Shia
increased from 44% in 2004 to 63% in 2011, and then dropped to 34%
in 2013. This evidence implies that the cooperation between the
Sunni tribes/groups with ISIL is unsustainable because of ISILs
religious extremism. A common hatred of the Shia, sectarian
government has led to some informal cooperation for now. Nation
wide survey 8th June 2014
2- Recognition of Iraq (and not religion) as the basis for
identity: The Sunnis and Shia both self-identify as Iraqi, rather
than Muslim or Arab, above all. This support rose from 22% in 2004
to 80% in 2008, and then dropped to 60% among Sunnis. Among the
Shia, it was 28% in 2004, increased to 72% in 2007, and then
dropped to 62% in 2013. Kurds largely do not self-identify as
Iraqi. Reinforcing attachment to the nation rather than to the
religion of Islam in politics is the fact that both Sunnis and Shia
(1) prefer politicians who are committed to the national interests
over politicians who have strong religious convictions by at least
a factor of 4 to 1, and (2) consider a good government one that
makes laws according to the wishes of the people over the one that
implements only the Sharia by at least a factor of 3 to 1. These
findings indicate that neither the Shia nor the Sunnis would be
interested in the partition of Iraq or in the implementation of a
religious state, and the current sectarian struggle is for
political supremacy rather than division. Iraq may converge to the
Lebanese model of sectarian strife. Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
Local Groups Oppose Terrorism and the Influence of
Predominantly Foreign Forces Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Please tell me how serious a problem each of the following is
in Iraq 88.4 92.1 11.6 7.9 Sunni Shia Terrorism Very serious
Serious Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
61.3 67.9 31.1 27.2 6.7 3.3 Sunni Shia Religious extremism Very
serious Serious Not very serious Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
7.9 23.5 47.9 56.2 37.5 18.6 6.7 .6 Sunni Shia Lack of
government services Very serious Serious Not very serious No
problem at all Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Thinking about your current situation, what is the one major
source of personal insecurity for you? 18 23.1 49.7 45.4 Sunni Shia
Political violence Terrorism Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Generally speaking, do you think the following organizations
have a positive or negative influence on the internal
events/affairs in Iraq? 23.2 1.6 45.5 76.5 21.3 18.1 Sunni Shia
Al-Nusra Front Neither positive nor negative Completely negative
influence Have never heard of them Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
2.4 39.2 69.0 26.0 18.6 23.7 Sunni Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon
Completely positive influence Completely negative influence Neither
positive nor negative Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
9.7 76.5 91.9 4.6 3.2 Sunni Shia Islamic State of Iraq and
Levant Positive influence Negative influence Neither positive nor
negative Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Would you support the activities of the following groups inside
Iraq? Would you strongly support, somewhat support, neither support
or oppose, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the activities of
the following groups inside Iraq? Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
5.2 .9 24.8 3.9 65.4 92.1 Sunni Shia Al Qa'ida Strongly support
Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
.6 1.5 8.9 .9 18.7 3.3 60.4 86.8 Sunni Shia Islamic State of
Iraq and Levant Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support
nor oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Nation wide survey 8th
June 2014
55.2 96.0 15.0 1.0 22.9 2.4 Sunni Shia Iraqi security forces
Strongly support Strongly oppose Neither support nor oppose Nation
wide survey 8th June 2014
How people in Mosul feel now? Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
200 telephone interviews were conducted with people from Mosul
from 19-21 June. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
What happened in Mosul was a result of 28.0 36.0 5.5 6.5 12.0
12.0 A conspiracy of internal Iraqi political parties inside and
outside of Nineveh A foreign plot against Iraq The occupation of
Nineveh by foreign armed groups and make it a part of the Islamic
state they proclaim Marginalization and sectarianism against Sunni
Wrong practices of the army and federal police in Nineveh Wrong
practices of the central government in Baghdad Nation wide survey
8th June 2014
Who is controlling Mosul now? 51.0 3.0 4.5 19.5 21.5 Tribal
rebels Fighters from the Baathists Military Council / former army
officers Foreigners, members of extremist Islamist groups All of
the above Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Is it safe and secure in your neighborhood after the withdrawal
of the army and the armed groups took over the city 81.5 13.5 4.0
Category 1 Chart Title Yes No DNK Nation wide survey 8th June
2014
In your opinion what is better for the current situation in
Mosul? Nation wide survey 8th June 2014 12.5 34.0 15.0 38.5 Defeat
of insurgents by the Iraqi armed forces and the return of the army
and the police as it was the case before the recent events Survival
of Mosul under the control of insurgents An agreement between the
government and militants to retreat and to ensure their safety in
return for giving the control back to central government The return
of the authority of the central government to the province in
exchange for withdrawing the army and federal police forces and
give control to local police and the local government.
Currently there is an attempt to coordinate between the U.S.
government and Iran to help solve the problem of Nineveh. Do you
support such co- operation to defeat the militants in Nineveh? 15.5
84.5 I support this cooperation, because he would defat the
militants in Nineveh I oppose this cooperation because it will
exacerbate the problem Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
Are you still living in the same residence in Mosul in which
you used to live before the 10th of June 2014 ? 72.5 16.5 11.0 Yes
No, I moved to another governorate No, I moved to another place in
Mosul. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
What needs to be done? 1. Recognize that a return to the
pre-June 9 status quo is untenable. 2. Develop new relationships
between these regions and the central government, whose past style
of authority has been deposed. 3. Identify new faces with whom to
engage, as the current lot of known politicians has de minimus
legitimacy in these areas. 4. Recognize that a failure to engage
because it is complicated or not our problem will only lead to
disastrous security consequences in the future, especially if ISIL
and related groups consolidate and build upon the momentum theyve
seen in the last two weeks. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
5- Neither ISIL nor armed groups can maintain stability in
Sunni areas for long an alternative to the poor governance of the
past is needed quickly. 6- The only feasible option is to make all
parties, including armed groups, sit together and make some
trade-offs. 7- Before that, we first need to strengthen moderate
armed groups to defeat ISIL, and then encourage them to put down
their arms. 8- We need a process of political reconciliation to
address the grievances of Iraqi Sunnis. It is long overdue, and may
be Iraqs last chance. Nation wide survey 8th June 2014
We need a different approach Thank you Nation wide survey 8th
June 2014