What do YOU know about population? 8000 BC ~5 million people 1 AD ~ million people 1650 ~ 500 million 1850 ~1 billion 1930 ~2 billion 1975 ~4 billion 1987 ~5 billion US?~ 314,125,293 ppl China?~ 1,343,239,923 ppl World?~ BILLION ppl 1. China 2. India 3. USA 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Pakistan 7. Nigeria 8. Bangladesh 9. Russia 10. Japan #11 Mexico114,975,406 #18 Iran 78,868,461 #22 UK 63,047,162 #36 Canada* 34,300,083 #60 Kazakhstan 17,522,010 #162 Djibouti* 774,389 #238 Pitcairn Islands 48 High Medium Low High 10.6 Medium 8.9 Low 7.2 Population (billions) Year India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia* Bangladesh Japan* Nigeria 1.4 billion 1.1 billion 1.4 billion 294 million 349 million 219 million 308 million 179 million 211 million 159 million 229 million 144 million 137 million 141 million 205 million 128 million 121 million 137 million 206 million 2004 Brooks/Cole Thomson Learning China 1.3 billion Total population Projections Year Population in millions 47 years 77 years 8% 81% 15% 83% 10% 2% 10% 52% $15 $ Life expectancy Married women working outside the home High school graduates Homes with flush toilets Homes with electricity Living in suburbs Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Homicides per 100,000 people Every year the world population grows by approximately 78 million people! Estimated that between 60 and 100 billion people have lived on this Earth Current population is over 7 billion. That is nearly 10% of all people that have ever lived on Earth! Worlds pop is currently growing at an exponential rate of 1.25% a year Added 80 million people in 2004 219,00 people per DAY 9,100 people per HOUR Would only take ~3 days to replace the 651,000 Americans killed in all US wars! Any quantity that grows (or decays) by a fixed percent at regular intervals Ex: 1 bacteria splits into two daughters which splits into 4 daughters which splits into 8 daughters and so on. Rate of reproduction is proportional to the existing population and the number of available resources Carrying capacity (k) Exponential growth does not factor in outside influences or limitations placed on a population Logistic growth does because these conditions are important as population sizes grow Develop ed countries: USA, Canada, Japan, Australia, NZ, most of the EU Highly industrialized and have higher per capita GDP Develop ing countries: everyone else, mostly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America Classified as moderately developed or low-income Developing countries Developed countries Population Population growth Wealth and income Resource use Pollution and waste Percent of Worlds Population (2004) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Fertility rate (TFR) %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP 294 million 179 million 137 million 349 million 211 million 206 million years 71 years 52 years % 30% 44% 12% 6% 3% $36,110 $7,450 $800 United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) Comparing 3 key demographic indicators in 2004 97% of projected increase in world population will happen in developing nations! World total Developing countries Developed countries Year Projected Population size 2100 What does this mean for the world? For developed nations? Social, economic, and environmental global changes that make societies increasingly interconnected Increases in the exchange of people, products, services, money, and ideas across all borders Information age! Increases in international trade Technology allows people to access information and ideas they may not have known about before Tools? What issues, if any, may arise from an increasingly connected global community? Improvement of living standards by economic growth Increase in a nations capacity to provide goods and services to its people REQUIRES: (and/or) population growth more production & consumption per person Measures economic growth Yearly market value of all goods and services produced by all organizations, foreign or domestic within a country Measures economic growth Measures changes in standard of living per capita GDP = GDP total mid year Economic Development Good NewsBad News Global life expectancy doubled since 1950 Life expectancy 11 years less in developing countries than in developed countries Food production ahead of population growth since 1978 Harmful environmental effects of agriculture may limit future food production Infant mortality cut in half since 1955 Air and water pollution down in most developed countries since 1970 Number of people living in poverty dropped 6% since 1990 Infant mortality rate in developing countries over 8 times higher than in developed countries Air and water pollution levels in most developing countries too high Half of worlds people trying to live on less than $3 (U.S.) per day Trade-Offs Studies size, composition, and distribution of human populations What causes change? What are the effects of change? People leaving (death & emigration) People arriving (birth & immigration) Immigrants- people moving into an area Emigrants- people moving out of an area Legal Obtain a green card Temporary Workers Visas Illegal Cross borders without papers Refugees and Asylum Political, economic, & environmental 1.8 million (average between 2002 and 2006) Lawful permanent residents 1.2 million Illegal residents 500,000 Most illegal aliens come from Europe- VISA overstays Number of live births per 1000 people per year US= 13.68/ 1000 people (2011) Births per woman < Data not available Importance of child labor Cost of raising and educating kids Availability of pensions Opportunities available for women Infant mortality rate Average age at marriage Availability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, social norms Number of deaths per 1000 people per year US= 8.39/ 1000 people (2011) Food supplies Nutrition Advances in medicine Sanitation Clean water supply Expected to kill 278 million people between 2000 and 2050 53 countries What could this problem cause among these countries? Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate World All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China) Number of children a couple must have to replace themselves Why would this number be higher in developing countries? Average number of kids a woman will have during her reproductive years Higher in developing nations If TFR falls, what happens to population growth? Education Employment opportunities Family planning Childcare Education and medical assistance for families Helps people decide how many kids and when they should have the kids Birth spacing, birth control, healthcare for moms Iran had 4.4% pop growth (one of the worlds highest) before 1989 Govt put family planning program in place Encouraged smaller families, provided free contraception, utilized religious leaders First country to require couples to take a class on contraception BEFORE they could get a marriage license Increased female literacy from 25% to 70% Increased female school enrollment from 60% to 90% Cut its growth rate down to 1.2% Reduced average family size from 7 kids to 2.5 kids Number of babies (per 1,000) who die before their 1 st birthday Best measure of a societys level of nutrition and health care Infant deaths per 1,000 live births < Data not available High rates show: undernutrition malnutrition high incidence of infectious disease US = 5.98 (world = ~43.15) Should be much lower 3 factors that keep it high Inadequate health care for mothers Drug addiction among pregnant women HIGH TEENAGE BIRTH RATE Stomach sleeping Soft sleeping surfaces Loose bedding Overheating Smoking Bed sharing Preterm & low birth weight Average number of years a newborn can be expected to live US=78.49 years (were #50!!!!!) Males: Females: #1 Monaco= years #221 Chad= years World= 69.6 years DOES NOT include migration! (Crude Birth Rate- Crude Death Rate) 10 Ex: 19-7 = 1.2% 10 How long does it take for a population to double its size if it continues to grow at the same rate? 70 Rate of Natural Increase = # (in years) EXAMPLE: If Nigeria is growing at 2.8% a year, how long will it take to double? 70/2.8%= 25 years Shows population growth Organized by age group and sex 4 types of growth Rapid Slow Zero Negative What do they tell us? How can we use this data to project population size? MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages Skip #6 & 7 Go to the US Census Bureau Select your country and 2012 as the year Look at Demographic Indicators and Tables to find data What is going on if we have a larger percentage of the population: In older groups? In the middle segment? In younger groups? As countries industrialize, first the death rates decline, then the birth rates decline 4 stages Pre-Industrial Little pop growth because of harsh living conditions Transitional Stage Industrialization begins, food production rises, and health care improves Death rates drop but birth rates stay high Why are most countries trapped here? Little to no skilled workers Cant compete in a global economy Debt to developed countries Drop in aid monies Industrial Stage Birth rate drops near level of death rate Postindustrial Stage ZPG Negative growth Strict one-child policy Couples who pledge to have only 1 kid: Extra food Larger pensions and salary bonuses Better housing Free medical care Free tuition for child Preferential treatment for employment Unexpected benefits for girls Increased education More women in the arts Increased numbers in engineering fields Why??? Should the government be able to tell people how many kids they can have? What policies could the UNITED STATES potentially introduce to reduce our population? Provide universal access to family planning services and reproductive health care Improve health care for pregnant women, infants, and children Develop and implement national pop policies Improve status of women (educate and employ) More education (especially for women) Increase male involvement in childcare responsibilities Sharply reduce poverty Reduce unstable patterns of production and consumption