1. What Does it Take to Put All Students on the Graduation Path? NAF Next 2012 Robert Balfanz Everyone Graduates Center School of Education Johns Hopkins University

2. We are at the start of what promises and needs to be a transformational decade in American Public Education. Common college and career ready standards Next generation assessments and state accountability Individual level longitudinal data Smart integration of technology Advancements in teacher quality

3. But millions of students are still attending high-poverty schools where: Achievement gaps become achievement chasms High school graduation is not the norm Few high school graduates complete college

4. This Can Not Continue There is no work for young adults without a high school degree And no work to support a family without some post-secondary schooling or training As a result entire communities are being cut off from participation in American society and a shot at the American Dream. This weakens the Nation

5. It Also Results in Concentrated and Intergenerational Poverty 81% of adolescents with parents who have less than a high school degree live in low income families 27% of adolescents with at least one parent who has some college or more education live in low income families

6. How Big is the Nations Graduation Challenge? Four Million High School Students in Class of 2010 Three Million Students Received Diplomas 75% Overall Graduation Rate 60% Graduation Rate for low income- minority students Grad Gap = One Million students without high school diplomas Nation has gone from 1st to 12th in 25-34

7. The Good News We Know Why Students Dropout We Know Which Schools They Dropout From We Know the Warning Signs that Students Are Falling Off the Path to Graduation We Know that Progress is Possible

8. There are Four Main Types of Dropouts Life Events (forces outside of school cause students to dropout) Fade Outs (students do ok in school but stop seeing a reason for staying) Push Outs (students who are or perceived to be detrimental to others in the school) Not Succeeding in School, School Not Succeeding with the Student

9. To Move the Graduation Rate to 90% by 2020 We Will Need 600,000 More Graduates: Where Will We Get Them? 1640 (12%) of high schools with graduation rates of 60% or less produce half the nations dropouts 3000 high schools (25%) with graduation rates between 61 and 75% produce 35% of the nations dropouts The 10,000 high schools (2/3rds) with graduation rates greater than 75% produce just 15% of dropouts

10. We Know Where the Nations Low Graduation Rate High Schools are Located About half are located in high poverty neighborhoods in the Nations cities The other half are mainly located throughout the South and Southwest-rural low wealth counties, small towns and urban fringe Every state has one 25% are in single high school-school districts

11. Concentration and Spread ofNations Low Graduation Rate High Schools

12. Future Dropouts can be Readily Identified in Significant Numbers as Early as 6th Grade The Primary Off-Track Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an Early Warning Indicator Indicators for Potential 100% Attendance Dropouts: Attendance -