Ralph Ogden

Executive Manager, Urban & Ecology

Canberra Nov 23 2011

What have we delivered?

Products, understandingUrban water, ecology, integrated management

Stages in NRM problem solving using technology

Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?”–Discuss, build consensus

–Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions

Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?”–Elements to systems

–Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc.

Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?”–Compare some options & report or select favoured

–Compare all options & select the best set

Challenges in creating ecological decision support tools

Compared to hydrology, sediments, nutrients:

• Much wider variety of species, habitats, processes of interest

• Less predictable

– more drivers affecting these – biological as well as physical

– harder to extrapolate from one site to another – species have adapted to

subtle differences between regions over many millions of years

• As a result, modelling & prediction less well established as

practice, which is also an impediment

Scope of ecology vs water quality/quantity problems

Ecological mgt problems Water quality & quantity

mgt problems

Possible causes

Primary causes

All solutions

Chosen solution

problem

solution

Water quality & quantity models greatly constrain the problem definition and provide a standard, accepted solution

No equivalent comprehensive modelling framework for eco-problem solving

Therefore for Ecology we break the task into two stages:Stage 1 – problem definition

Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?”–Discuss, build consensus

–Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions

Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?”–Elements to systems

–Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc.

Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?”–Compare some options & report or select favoured

–Compare all options & select the best set

Elements of ecological problem definition

–Discuss, build consensus

–Collect scientific evidence and diagnose problems

–Determine focus for solutions

Conceptual modelling

Concept – Dynamic cartoons

Gain consensus in system understanding and problem definition

http://www.toolkit.net.au/Tools/Eco-Evidence

Online database for recording & retrieving studies & metadata concerning associations between a cause (X) & an effect (Y)

Eco Evidence – capture science & contextual info

Eco Evidence – how does the water system behave? test assumptions, diagnose problems, focus solutions

US EPA CADLIT

eWater Eco Evidence

Web

Eco Evidence can be linked to national/international databases

EU

Eco Evidence Exchange

Standards allowdatabases to connect

Supported by a growing community for evidence-based

practice

Stage 2 – solution formulation for eco-problems

Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?”–Discuss, build consensus

–Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions

Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?”–Elements to systems

–Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc.

Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?”–Compare some options & report or select favoured

–Compare all options & select the best set

Formulating ecological solutions

–Collect quantitative data

–Model elements and systems

–Integrate systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc

–Compare different scenarios (e.g. e-flows or climate change) and either report on these or ‘game’ these and choose one to implement

Decades +

Flood pulse frequency

Years - Decades

Hours to Months

Bankfull stage

Flow regime

Flow history

Flow/Flood pulse

Flood pulse duration

Once past the problem definition stage, the solution is

quantitative– how much,

how often,when, where?

Eco Modeller – Define species water requirements and predict the impact of alternative regimes

Aggregated results and links to scenarios

1) Process models (e.g. hydrological)2) Measured or synthetic data

Of multiple scenarios

selectselectmodelsmodels

buildbuildmodelsmodels

Ecological research, modelling groups,

Govt. science groups,Consultants,

Project reviewers

Aggregated results and links to scenariosAggregated results and links to scenarios

1) Process models (e.g. hydrological)2) Measured or synthetic data

1) Process models (e.g. hydrological)2) Measured or synthetic data

Of multiple scenariosOf multiple scenarios

selectselectmodelsmodels

buildbuildmodelsmodels

Ecological research, modelling groups,

Govt. science groups,Consultants,

Project reviewers

Ecological research, modelling groups,

Govt. science groups,Consultants,

Project reviewers

• Determine ecological responses to drivers, including mgt ones

• Compare management scenarios and choose preferred one

• Entry level for ecologists into modelling domain

Eco Modeller – some applications

• Fitzroy – 7 models

–Other coastal Qld catchments

• Estuarine response models, Queensland & NSW

• Murray – Hattah

• Coorong

• South Australia

• Victoria

Monitoring & assessment products

• Water Quality Analyser–Process or clean up data

–Estimate pollutant loads

–Trend assessment

–Compare with standards and report

–Set water quality guidelines• AUSRIVAS – a leading biological assessment product for over a

decade

eFlow Predictor – a level up in solution integration

Convert a set of environmental flow requirements into an

environmental flow

Game different eflow scenarios and pick the best performing,

e.g. the one that satisfies the greatest number of

environmental flow requirements

Integrate ecology into Source – EcoDSS systemtop level in solution integration

Environmental demand moduleCreate an environmental demand in Source

Represent the environment as a water user

Or integrate with external tools – EcoDSS systems top level in solution integration

Lowbidgee – DSS for planning & operations in the river-wetland

complex – NSW DECCW–IQQM (Source) – Flood model, SKM–Eco Modeller – knowledge: local managers & scientists

Hattah lakes – DSS for managing species in this ecological asset –

MDBA–MSM BIGMOD – Eco Modeller–Scientists – eWater, MDFRC

Yarra – DSS for managing DO impacts – DSE, Melbourne Water–Source – External DO model–Eco-research

Monitoring & assessment toolstop level in solution integration

• Framework for Assessing River and Wetland Health (FARWH)–NWC funded, eWater supported

–Approach to consistent M&E at basin-wide & national-scales

Complementary new knowledge from ecological research –e.g. modeling fish population persistence in intermittent rivers

Nick Bond

Dave Crook James Fawcett

Jon Marshall Will Shenton

Harry Balcombe Jane Hughes

Joel Huey Angela Arthington

Norbert Menke Jaye Lobegeiger

Golden perch, Moonie R

• Models predict persistence of M. ambigua under current hydro-climatic regime

• Is the model useful? and can we trust it?–Precise predictions? ✗–Formalising knowledge & hypotheses? ✓–Determining what variables matter? ✓–Hueristic ‘gaming’ tool? ✓–Supporting management decisions? ✓–Baseline for assessing surprises – learning by failure? ✓

Flowing &Connected

IsolatedWaterholes

Waterholes Drying

Last Waterhole System Dry

Population ExtinctionRisk

No-Flow Spell Duration

Other CRC systems R&D – Ecology

Ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) – Arthington, Bunn et al.

Environmental Flows: Science and Management. Freshwater Biology 55 (1), 260 pp. Arthington et al. Eds.

Longitudinal trends in carbon – dominance of algae, DOC for microbial loops – Hadwen et al.

Estuarine response models – Halliday, Potts, Ferguson et al.

Fish behaviour in response to low DO – Crook et al.

Mosquito response models to stormwater pond levels – Dyer et al.

Overall: >200 peer-reviewed publications

• usually 6-12 publications per product

Ecology capability – conclusion

Never more than a year or three away from a solution

i.e. solutions can be found in a reasonable timeframe

Urban water management

Urban products cover breadth of problem solving

Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?”–Discuss, build consensus

–Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions

Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?”–Elements to systems

–Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc.

Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?”–Compare some options & report or select favoured

–Compare all options & select the best set

Urban Developer

Allotment to suburb scale IUWM• WSUD strategies – new or retrofit• Alternative water supplies

– Stormwater– Rainwater– Wastewater– Centralised & decentralised

• End-use simulation, demand behaviour via probabilistic demands

• Simulating across hydrological cycle – wet and dry – including design rainfalls

• Integrate systems at a range of scales – lot to suburb

• Variable time steps, 15 seconds – day

Link types

Routing types

Simulation options

Water Use models

Node model types

Link to Toolkit

Flexibility

Urban functionality in Source.IMS Regional scale IUWM

Cities can now be considered –1) Alongside rural irrigation, hydro, and environmental assets

–Urban demand–Rural to urban trading

2) Within their water supply catchments – headworks, demand management, decentralised alternative supplies

–Upscaling local effects using Urban Developer for much more refined understanding of demand

MUSICstormwater hydrology and pollution impacts

Key features:• Pollutant modelling• Water balance• Stormwater harvesting• Stormwater reuse• Life cycle costing

Treatment devices:• Bioretention• Media filtration• Infiltration• Wetland• Gross Pollutant Trap• Swale• Pond

Advanced decision support addresses...

Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?”–Discuss, build consensus

–Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions

Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?”–Elements to systems

–Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc.

Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?”–Compare some options & report or select favoured

–Compare all options & select the best set

2 broad approaches to decision support for choosing options in NRM

1. Compare some options & report result or select preferred option

2. Compare all options & select the best set

#2 is called ‘decision modelling’ and provides advanced decision support

Source: ACTEW website

Case Study:ACT SystemDecision modelling

Decision modelling example: Operation of the ACT Water Supply System

• Management objectives• Minimise cost• Minimise time in restrictions

• Decision variables (mgt ‘levers’)– Pumping thresholds

M’bidgee to Googong transfer Cotter to Googong transfer Bendora to Googong transfer

– Pumping, treating, storing systems– Operating rules for dams– Triggers for water restrictions

– SW harvesting, WW recycling

• Set up model with decision variables as inputs and evaluated objectives as outputs

• Run model ca. 50,000 times, each with different permutation of decision variables

• All ‘solutions’ – individual permutations of decision variables – plotted in this bivariate space

• Edge of the space (blue dots and line) identifies subset of solutions that minimises time in restrictions and costs, & exposes tradeoffs between these

T

ime

in r

estr

ictio

ns

Least time in restrictions solution

Decision modelling: works equally well for planning

• Objectives• Minimise cost• Minimise time in restrictions• Maximise water security• Maximise (or meet targets) for threatened fish in

water supply stream corridors

• Decision variables (management levers)– Pumping thresholds between storages– Operating rules for dams– Triggers for water restrictions

– SW harvesting, WW recycling

www.images.act.gov.au

Outputs: decision science & modelling products

1) Best Practice Modelling guidelines

–Decision modelling

–Risk assessment framework

2) Products

• Insight:

Examine trade-offs between competing NRM objectives

• MCAT:

Evaluate a set of decision options along a variety of criteria

Complementary urban research

• End-use modeling

• Understanding of trade-offs between robustness and efficiency of

possible management responses to climate change

• New concepts, e.g. ‘minimising regret’

• Efficacy of optimisation algorithms used in tools

• Risk assessment framework developed as part of ACT Focus

Catchment

Overall: >110 peer-reviewed publications

Final points

• Built capability for ecological problem solving

• New urban products – at cluster & regional scales – represent

big advances on existing ones

Products and knowledge allow users to:

• Employ ‘best available science’ in management

• Integrate water quantity & quality, catchment & eco mgt

• Follow transparent, repeatable & consistent best-practice