What is Biodiversity Information for? Informing Investments in the Limpopo River Basin

Africa Rising Conference, Cape Town Dr Nkobi Moleele, RESILIM and Belynda Petrie, OneWorld, May 2015

Today’s Discussion – an Overview

• A systems based approach to understand resilience in a basin wide system

• Methodological approaches

• Key messages and lessons

• Applying the analysis to inform a basin-wide Investment Strategy

• Bridging the gap - the science-policy-finance interface

Water, biodiversity & climate change interact in the Limpopo – and this nexus functions in a system that supports livelihoods, development and agriculture

Water

Climate Change

Eco-systems

Governance

Necessitating a systems-based analytical framework

Soutpansberg

Put another way…

A systems based approach requires a combination of methodological and synthesized analysis

• Risk and Vulnerability Mapping – spatial, GIS-based analysis

• 1st to 4th Order Impact Assessments – how does CC cascade through a system?

• Political and Livelihoods Economy Analysis

• Institutional Mapping

• Analysis of the nuances of vulnerability and development of an adaptive capacity framework

• Particiatory analysis

• Multicriteria analysis: assessing the dimensions of return on investment

Elements of the LRB System in a changing climate • The natural resources of the river basin (hydrology, biodiversity, etc);

how they are managed and how they will be impacted by CC;

• A large and complex human system, whose actions and decisions intertwine with the natural resource base to determine the actual impacts of climate change, and hence and how these impact the livelihoods of people living in the basin

• Current and future levels of risk and vulnerabilities of climate change impacts, as well as how policies and decisions made by the riparian states impact on climate driven changes to the natural resource base

R&V Analysis – Assumptions

• building resilience requires cooperation at various levels and ideally across the entire system, including between sectors

• the foundation for resilience is therefore cooperation among decision makers on how basin resources are used and managed

• governance, or failures of governance, is a key component of vulnerability assessment and adaptation

Political-Economy Analysis – 5 key questions • What is the extent of political will underpinning climate change, water

resource (and related) development and biodiversity management decisions in the LRB?

• To what extent do social economy decisions and realities impact and/or influence political-economy decisions in the LRB and vice versa?

• How do natural resource and ecosystem functioning and information inform and/or influence key, related development decisions in the riparians as well as at a transboundary level?

• Where development decisions are likely to impact scarce resources or ecosystem functioning, how do these decisions consider these impacts

• How do national governments in the basin manage conflict and disputes that arise, or may arise, from allocation and development decisions affecting key basin resources?

Mapping Risk & Vulnerability

• Risk & Vulnerability Mapping – Spatial analysis overlaying over 60 datasets

using GIS

• Mainstream and broad brush

• Based closely on previous SADC RCCP project

• Uses IPCC data

• Attempted to improve resolution of existing data and include new more relevant data

• Development of a set of development futures for the Basin

• Envelopes of change from the Basin Down Scale Models

• Combine 2& 3 to develop a set of Climate and Development Scenarios for the Basin

• Synthesised analysis of the Basin as a System

Three Stages of Analysis

•The risk of climate events both now and in the future Exposure

•How sensitive the population and environment are to the current and future climate events Sensitivity

•Ability for the population to adapt to climate change

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability defined - The degree to which

a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes

Futures Analysis

• 2050

• Specific sensitivity and exposure summary layers

• Incorporates additional input layers

• Emphasis placed on the climate, population and per capita resources

Maps produced use overlays of institutional, livelihood, and infrastructure data for each component of vulnerability - yielding an impact assessment, contextualized in the prevailing political and livelihood economies

Identifying Representative Case Study Areas of Resilience

“Hotspots”

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Exposure

Sensitivity

Problem areas

Step 1 Step 2

Problem areas

Adaptive capacity

Hotspots

Step 3

R&V Analysis parameters

• All analysis performed using 1 km cell size

• Basin perimeter defined using HYDRO1K (USGS)

• All input layers reclassified 1-9; standardised scale

• Input layers are then summed together to produce summary layers; exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

All input layers weighted 1-3 based on:

• Relevance to the region • Confidence • Spatial resolution

Current • Coefficient of Variation for Inter-

annual Rainfall

• Coefficient of Variation for Monthly Rainfall

• Risk of Cyclones

• Risk of Floods

• Standardised Precipitation Index

• Fire frequency

• Disaster Events: Number of Events by Area

• Disaster Events: Numbers Affected per Population

Future

• One in 10 year drought

• WorldClim ensemble precipitation change

• WorldClim ensemble maximum temperature change

• WorldClim ensemble mean temperature change

• Loss of suitability for cropland

• Sea Level Rise

Exposure layers

Current • Percent Land Under Irrigation

• Crowding on Agricultural Land

• Length of Growing Period

• Major Agricultural Systems

• Carrying capacity (cumulative vegetation)

• Livestock food imbalance (overgrazing)

• Water Withdrawals

• People Living in Water Stress

• Rainfall Per Capita

• Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity

• Net Primary Productivity

• Own Food Production

• Protein Consumption

• Dietary Diversity

• Overall soil sensitivity

• Slope

• Forest Loss

Future • Rainfall Per Capita 2050

• Per Capita Rainfall Change

• Additional Population Density by 2050

Sensitivity Layers

Sensitivity layers

• Infrastructure Poverty Layer

• Subscribers to a Cellular Network

• Travel Time to Nearest City

• Night Lights Dataset

• Travel time to market towns

• Irrigation Potential

• Tsetse Fly Habitat Suitability

• Contribution of Agriculture to Gross Domestic Product

• Healthcare Access

• HIV prevalence

• Health Expenditure

• Malaria Incidence

• Malnourishment in Children Under 5 Years Old

• Education

• Literacy levels

• Forest Resources

• Biodiversity

• Wetlands

• Piped water

• Access to Improved Water

• Water Discharge

• Economic Wealth Layer

• Employment

• Household GDP

• Wealth: low

• Wealth: high

• GINI index

• Conflicts

• Governance

• Gender equality

• Vulnerability of Children: Orphans

Adaptive capacity layers

Spatial mapping brings focus on specific areas revealing 8 representative case studies of vulnerability

Climate change cascades through the system - 1st to 4th order impact assessment in the Upper Limpopo

1st to 4th order - Upper Limpopo

1st to 4th order – Upper Limpopo

Key messages

• Water scarcity poses the greatest threat to livelihoods, economies and ecosystems of the Limpopo River Basin

• Enabling sufficient access to water is the most important way of reducing vulnerability in the LRB system.

• Investments that focus on the key themes of biodiversity, water, and climate change can make a significant contribution towards increasing water-use efficiency and availability.

• Protecting and restoring areas of environmental degradation is a basin priority given the strong relationship between water quantity, quality, and biodiversity.

• All water users and all key economic sectors will likely be affected strongly by climate change in the future.

• The areas that have the highest biodiversity and levels of endemism are also high-altitude areas with the highest rainfall and water runoff per unit area.

Key messages

• Biodiversity is more likely to be protected if it is perceived as a way to create jobs and provide income.

• Groundwater provides hope for increasing water supply in the LRB, but the sustainability of groundwater supplies is limited by under-resourced and low-capacity management practices

• High levels of pollution in the tributaries of the Limpopo River threaten communities throughout the basin as far downstream as Mozambique.

• Prioritize food security by promoting sustainable agriculture for alleviating poverty and building secure livelihoods.

• Balancing community needs with a politically coordinated approach to managing water scarcity is needed.

• A common vision for sharing the benefits of effective transboundary water management is key to overcoming the challenge of accelerated water scarcity.

Rationale for a Basin-wide Investment Strategy

• Strategically address vulnerability and build resilience – basin level critical threshold

– Growing populations

– Urbanisation

– Accelerated economic development

– Deteriorating ecosystem services

– Climate change

• Growing water demand diametrically opposed to increasingly limited supplies

• All four countries have ambitious development plans – scant consideration for water resource limitations

• Pressure on existing flows threatens livelihoods, economic growth and biodiversity

The strategy has five objectives:

1. Reduce the likelihood of a water crisis in the LRB by restoring and protecting the ecosystem health of the basin’s most productive catchments.

2. Build commitments to responding to climate change through inclusive decision-making across all levels of governance within the LRB system.

3. Promote equitable access to the LRB’s key resources, particularly water, through benefit sharing and related trade-offs at all levels of governance in the LRB.

4. Optimize LRB water flows and quality as the primary returns on strategic basin-wide investments, by restoring biodiversity and expanding its range.

5. Promote green growth and resilient livelihoods by stimulating employment and enterprise development through climate resilience and adaptation interventions.

Enabling

Governance, management,

and compliance

Institutional and capacity development

Data and knowledge

management

Asset

Ecological infrastructure

Built infrastructure

Classes of investment and allocation of types

Investment Domains

Investing for Resilience in the Limpopo

Basin

Productive Institutions

Secure Water

Resilient Ecosystems

Diversified Livelihoods

Financing the Investment Strategy – mobilizing financial resources

• Funding the identified investments requires a combination of investors and mechanisms

• Financing transboundary initiatives particularly challenging, requiring innovative institutional and financing vehicles

• Success of the program relies on matching investments with investors. This section provides the framework for doing so.

Sequencing of Investors & Investments

Incentives to invest

• Private investors responding to risks of water scarcity:

– Financial risk: increased water scarcity increases costs of water

– Reputation risk: shared community resource

– Physical risk: operational impact of water shortages

– Regulatory risk: compliance with water regulations

• Public investors have wide range of incentives to invest:

– Developmental impact of water access:

• Ecosystems services and protection of biodiversity assist in the provisioning, regulating and supporting of natural resources and water flows

– Climate change adaptation and mitigation

• Bundling and stacking of environmental and socio-economic co-benefits

Financing Mechanisms

• Currently financing mechanisms focused at in-country level. Grants, loans, PPPs, climate funds etc.

• Excluding RESILIM program, no major programs at transboundary level outside of SADC structures (i.e. LRB specific). Requires design of innovative financing mechanisms.

• Finance facility:

– Project specific transactions

– Improves governance, reduces risk and increases access to capital

– Revolving fund structure

– Requires riparian states collective agreement of eligible funding activities

– Funding pooled at reputable regional institution, e.g. DBSA

Returns on Investment

• Discussed per investor type - e.g.:

– Private sector investment in secure water = continued licence to operate

– Public finance for ecological infrastructure and ecosystem services secures water for economic development and livelihoods – public good

– Public sector investment in biodiversity enhances ecosystem services

Applying the science to inform policy and investment decisions..

A ‘go-to’ investment guideline for all investors in LRB resilience:

- Governments and their agencies

- DFIs

- World Bank; AfDB; IFC; European Investment Bank

- Donor institutions

- Industry – Corporate Social Responsibility; Needs based investments

An investment tool for Basin custodians to deploy in directing and guiding investors in LRB resilience:

- RBOs – LIMCOM, SADC Water,

- Catchment Management Agencies

- Communities and Governments

Mobilizing the Investment Strategy

Implementation is an ongoing process… with immediate actions/steps required:

• Profiling the strategy

• Developing strategies for mobilizing and coordinating finance

• Securing the interest and commitment of investors

• Series of international events (COP etc)

• Develop a transboundary funding proposal (GEF)

• Commence the process of developing a shared vision for the Limpopo Basin

Thank You!