What is the future of rabies control in Europe?How models can help

GC Smith, HH Thulke, AR Fooks, M Artois,

DW Macdonald, D Eisinger, T Selhorst

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Reduced cost vaccine strategy ?

• Baits are expensive

• EU fund greater proportion or

will less baits work?

• Current bait density = 70% immunity

• Recent work suggests 60%= 1/3 reduction in baits

• This needs to be tested in the field.

Raccoon dog rabies ?

• Raccoon dogs spreading west

• Raccoon dog density increasing

• Raccoon dogs make rabies epizootic more intense

(equivalent to increasing fox density)

• If no hibernation (climate change):rabies harder to control

• Is a new vaccine strategy required?

• Examine cost effectiveness.

Vaccinate to protect border ?

• Push vaccination across all of Asia (wildlife rabies)

• Stop at some border

• Not consider politics

• Do need to examine economics !

Optimum vaccine strategy ?

Rabies free Rabies endemic

Optimum vaccine strategy ?

Rabies free Rabies endemic

Optimum vaccine strategy ?

Rabies free Rabies endemic

Best emergency vaccine strategy ?

• EU recommendation

• 25-50km radius of vaccination

• Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density

• Emergency strategy effectively untried

• Theoretical density limit where vaccine works.

Effect of single baiting campaign

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0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5

Fox Density (familes km )

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Best emergency vaccine strategy ?

• EU recommendation

• 25-50km radius of vaccination

• Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density

• Emergency strategy effectively untried

• Theoretical density limit where vaccine works

• What is the limit?Do we exceed it anywhere?

Conclusion

• Is a new vaccine strategy required?

• Examine economics of rabies control

• Test any new strategy in the field

• Is current emergency strategy OK?

• What is the density limit for vaccination ?

• Current models can answer these questions