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What is the mobility of the future?

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  • What is the Mobility of the Future? January 2012 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan, July 2014
  • 2 7 major challenges to be taken into account to develop the mobility of the future 2 global challenges - CO2 emissions & end of cheap oil, 3 local challenges pollution, congestion & parking and 2 economic challenges - unemployment & trade deficit 2 Global Challenges End of cheap oil 3 Local Challenges Pollution Congestion Parking CO2 emissions 2 Economic Challenges rising unemployment & trade deficit
  • 3 Is the private electric car the urban mobility of the future? We thought the issue was that the private car used gasoline or diesel and we made it electric. What if the issue was that it is private? Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons
  • 4 Is the private car the mobility of the future? If these idiots would just take the bus, I could be home by now... A 10% increase in the occupancy rate of our cars would be sufficient to get rid of most of traffic jams
  • 5 Transport = Private Vehicle Freedom Convenience Status Progress No Real Alternative Gen Y Population Growth Energy / Natural Resources Urbanisation Technology/ Connectivity Social Responsibility New Vehicles : Electric bikes, Electric cars, Electric scooters New Business Models Vehicle sharing, Ride sharing New technologies Internet, Geolocalisation, Smartphones Pollution Congestion Globalisation Virtualisation Transport = Shared Mobility People will always change for a better alternative Paradigm Shift from Private Transport to Shared Mobility More than 75% of people live in a urban area where space is limited We cant afford any more to all drive our private vehicle on our own when alternatives exists The urban mobility of the future will be shared or wont be Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 6 What is the most efficient transport mode in a city? Whether it is on the energy side or the physical footprint, the most efficient transport mode in a city where space is limited are bus, scooters & bikes Car 1,4 t 10 m2 1,3 person >1000 kg & 7.7 m2 per person Quadricycle 500 kg 3 m2 1 person 500 kg & 3 m2 per person Bus 12 t 42 m2 30 persons 430 kg & 1.4 m2 per person Scooter 125 kg 2 m2 1 person 125 kg & 2 m2 per person Electric bike 20 kg 1 m2 1 person 20 kg & 1 m2 per person Bike 10 kg 1 m2 1 person 10 kg & 1 m2 per person Source: Frost & Sullivan, PREDIT, 6t - Bureau de Recherche. Average speed in European cities (km/h) 5 15 16 18 19 17
  • 7 To address congestion & parking issue, we have 4 solutions More roads, smaller vehicles, more people per car or less cars More Roads Smaller Vehicles Less CarsMore People per Car
  • 8 Vehicle sharing - car, scooter & bike - is a great alternative for urban mobility... ... all the more as private car use is constrained in cities ElectricConventional Bike Car Bike Sharing Electric Bike Sharing Electric Car SharingPeer-to-peer Car Sharing Scooter Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 9 Ride sharing taxi, public transport & car pooling - is also a great alternative The combination of new technologies internet, geo-localisation & smart phones made those alternatives much more user friendly then they used to be 15 years ago Planned Car pooling Instant Short Distance Planned Long Distance Higher Price per KM Lower Price per KM On Demand Car pooling Taxi ServicesPublic Transport Transportation Network Companies Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 10 Smart Parking Ride Sharing Taxi Hailing Urban Logistics Car Sharing Small cars Best Practice - Daimler is very active across the shared mobility field Leverages carsharing, integrated mobility, strategic investments in parking, ridesharing, taxis, and urban couriers. Additional services planned to grow to 800 mn of revenues by 2020 several more investments to follow Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 11 Small cars are not an option anymore - it is a necessity to preserve our mobility While cheap oil availability is more and more constrained especially in Europe, it is high time to develop small & light cars which are fuel efficient 1l/100 km and affordable Source: Manicore Jean-Marc Jancovici, Gregory Launay Liquid fuels production - 1870 2100 - A 800 kg hybrid-air car would have a 2 L/100 km fuel consumption A 600 kg range extended electric vehicle would have a 1L/100 km fuel consumption Significantly reduce vehicle weight is the most efficient way to reduce transportation energy consumption, which depends for 97% on oil Productioninbillionsofoil barrelsperyear Peugeot BB1 Rex Hybrid Air Fuel consumption of a car vs. weight and energy efficiency
  • 12 The mobility of the future should also improve our trade balance 85% of the 65 bn trade deficit increase from 2004 to 2012 is due to rising oil & gas prices (hence imports) as well as the decline of the French automotive industry Source : http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Energy Manufacturing industry (excluding energy & automotive) Automotive Industry Agriculture Trade balance degradation by sector from 2004 to 2012 - billions- 2 -9 -16 -41 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Tradebalance(billions) Tradebalancedegradation (billions) Trade balance by sector from 2004 to 2012 - billions-
  • 13 The mobility of the future should also create jobs & reduce global CO2 emissions Since 2012, 12 automotive assembly plant closed in Western Europe while 11 automotive assembly plants opened in Eastern Europe where labour cost is lower but electricity dirtier Labour cost - Manufacturing industry, /h - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source : Coe Rexecode, Eurostat, Inovev Electricity production from coal - % of total electricity production in 2012 - 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 % 40 % 45 % Source : Worldbank Manufacturing the vehicle of the future in a country using coal as its main source for electricity production Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey or Morocco is not necessarily a good idea if we really care about climate change
  • 14 Is the driverless car the new mobility of the future after the electric car? If it is small, light, electric and shared, why not? Drive and Let Drive Concept Can be manually driven or self- driven by the vehicle Predetermined A-to-B Personal Mobility with Route Inputs Ideally suitable for Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Ideally suitable for urban commuters and people with special mobility needs Fully-automated vehicles hold the potential for fundamental rethinking of vehicle designs. For instance, partially collapsible vehicles also save parking space when not in motion Autonomous Adaptive Mobility Vehicles Source: Frost & Sullivan; MIRA Ltd
  • 15 What is the mobility of the future? The car of the future will not have a driver - The driver of the future will not have a car!
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