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Climate Change and the Tart Cherry Industry in the Great Lakes Region:
Introducing the Pileus Project:
18 January 2005
Components of the Pileus Project
Corn & Wheat Quality
Compre-hensiveGolf
Skiing Tart Cherry
Industry
TOURISM AGRICULTURE
Climate
Pileus Project Players MSU Core Team
Dr. Jeffrey AndresenDr. Roy Black
Tracy Beedy
Dr. Costanza Zavalloni
Agriculture
Galina Guentchev
Krerk Piromsopa
Dr. Julie WinklerDr. Jeffrey Andresen
Climate
Lori Martin
Charles Shih
Jeonghee Noh
Dr. Don HolecekDr. Sarah Nicholls
Tourism
Administration/Coordination/CommunicationsDr. Peter SousounisJeanne Bisanz
Overall Project Objectives (Agriculture)
• Cultivate research partnerships with tart industry stakeholders to establish research goals, identify specific needs, and provide expertise.
• Create physically-based models to quantify past and projected impacts of climate and climate variability on the tart cherry industry.
• Develop decision-support tools for weather and climate-related risk management for tart cherry production, grain quality & the tourism/recreation industry.
Tree phenology?
Tart cherry production?
Economic cost of production?
Net returns over time?
The need for insurance?
How might past and potential future climates impact…..
Stakeholder are KEY
Cherry Marketing Institute
Northwest Horticulture Research Station
Cherry Bay, Inc.
National Agriculture Statistics Service
Tart Cherry Industry Task Force
Individual cherry growers
ClimateObservations
or Scenarios
Ecological or Activity
(e.g. fruit tree or tourism/recreation)
Model
Economic Model(s)
Risk/Decision Making
/Policy Framework
Socioeconomic Scenarios
Land use change scenarios
Solar radiation
Vapor pressure
Phenology ET, PET Soil water
Disease pressure
Yield
Winter mortality
LAI
TemperaturePrecipitation
Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology Southwest Lower MI, 1976-2003
Stage
4 - Tight Cluster
6 - First White
7 - First Bloom
8 - Bloom
9 - Petal Fall
8
5
4
26
9
- 1.60
- 1.50
- 3.20
2.75
0.56
6.40
3.11
4.40
4.25
3.90
2 - Side Green 10
- 1.44 2.55
Weather data: Eau Claire, MI
Location of observations: SWMREC and Berrien County
Number of observations
Mean difference
(days)
Mean absolute difference
(days)
Grand Traverse Bay - Freezing by Decade 1851-2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1851-60 1861-70 1871-80 1881-90 1891-19001901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00
Decade
Years of Freezing
Yrs. BayFroze
Bud Stages and Damage Temperatures
Source pictures: Mark Longtroth and Dennis and Howell
Side green Tight cluster
-12.2 C - 6.7 C - 5.6 C - 4.4 C
Green tip
Threshold temperatures from Dennis and Howell, 1974
Open cluster
Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region
• Mean air temperatures are projected to increase 1-3C by the end of this century.
• Projected trends in precipitation are unclear, with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter climate and others a drier climate.
• Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, a key factor for cherry production, remain unknown.
Fraction
Average Annual Returns ($)0 200 400 600
0
.05
.1
Projected Average Annual Returns per AcreSouthwest Lower MI (2020-2050)
per Acre
• Development of simple crop models that can be used to evaluate the impact of future climate trends and variability on tart cherry production
• Providing a better understanding of historical climate trends, variability, and their past impacts on the tart cherry industry
• Explicit incorporation of climate into a framework that may assist in economic decision-making
Potential benefits of the Pileus Project