What lies ahead?What lies ahead?

A taste of what is to come?A taste of what is to come? The Chicago heat wave of 1995The Chicago heat wave of 1995

Temperatures of 38-41°C on five consecutive daysTemperatures of 38-41°C on five consecutive days Chicago is in the centre of the US corn beltChicago is in the centre of the US corn belt The intense heat shrank the US corn harvest that year The intense heat shrank the US corn harvest that year

by 15%by 15% = 3 billion dollars= 3 billion dollars

What lies ahead?What lies ahead? A 2.1° rise will expose between 2.3 and 3 billion people to A 2.1° rise will expose between 2.3 and 3 billion people to

the risk of the risk of water shortageswater shortages. . Soils will become a net source of carbon rather than a net Soils will become a net source of carbon rather than a net

sink.sink. The proportion of land experiencing extreme drought is The proportion of land experiencing extreme drought is

predicted to rise from 3 per cent today to 30 per cent: predicted to rise from 3 per cent today to 30 per cent: with with consequent crop reductionsconsequent crop reductions

The thermohaline circulation (THC) could weaken or shut The thermohaline circulation (THC) could weaken or shut down.down.

The Global Ocean Circulation SystemThe Global Ocean Circulation System

The day after tomorrow … ?The day after tomorrow … ?

Doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain. The pace of consumption, waste and environmental change has so stretched the planet’s capacity that our contemporary lifestyle, unsustainable as it is, can only precipitate catastrophes, such as those which even now periodically occur in different parts of the world.

Laudato si, 161

What lies ahead?What lies ahead? -- A rise in the middle of the A rise in the middle of the

expected range commits 15 to 37 per cent expected range commits 15 to 37 per cent of the world’s species to extinction by 2050. of the world’s species to extinction by 2050.

-- At 1.4° coral reefs in the Indian At 1.4° coral reefs in the Indian Ocean will become extinct. Ocean will become extinct.

-- With 2° 97 per cent of the With 2° 97 per cent of the world’s coral reefs will bleach. world’s coral reefs will bleach.

-- The oceans will acidify (from 8.2 The oceans will acidify (from 8.2 to 7.7 by century’s end): too acid for sea to 7.7 by century’s end): too acid for sea creatures – including plankton – to make creatures – including plankton – to make shells. shells.

What lies ahead?What lies ahead? Even a small degree of warming Even a small degree of warming

could cause the loss of much of the could cause the loss of much of the Amazon rain forest, leading to the Amazon rain forest, leading to the disappearance of rainfall. disappearance of rainfall.

The Amazon has the potential to The Amazon has the potential to release 730 tonnes of carbon – about release 730 tonnes of carbon – about 10 per cent of man-made emissions – 10 per cent of man-made emissions – every year for 75 years (this is an every year for 75 years (this is an example of example of positive feedbackpositive feedback: climate : climate change accelerating itself).change accelerating itself).

What lies ahead?What lies ahead? -- Rising sea levels will Rising sea levels will allow salt water to pollute the allow salt water to pollute the drinking water of some of the drinking water of some of the world’s largest coastal cities: world’s largest coastal cities: Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta, Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta, Bangkok, Kolkata, Mumbai, Bangkok, Kolkata, Mumbai, Karachi, Lagos, Buenos Aires Karachi, Lagos, Buenos Aires and Lima. and Lima.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Humanity is called on to recognize the

need for changes in lifestyle, production

and consumption, in order to combat

this warming or at least the human

causes which produce or aggravate it

(Laudato si, 23).

The alliance between the economy and

technology ends up sidelining anything

unrelated to its immediate interests.

Consequently the most one can expect is

superficial rhetoric, sporadic acts of

philanthropy and perfunctory expressions of

concern for the environment, whereas any

genuine attempt by groups within society to

introduce change is viewed as a nuisance based

on romantic illusions or an obstacle to be

circumvented. (Laudato si, 54).

The scale of the challenge: what we need to doThe scale of the challenge: what we need to do

By 2030 the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb carbon By 2030 the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb carbon dioxide will have reduced from the current figure of 4 dioxide will have reduced from the current figure of 4 billion tonnes a year to 2.7 billion. billion tonnes a year to 2.7 billion.

To maintain equilibrium in other words, that is the To maintain equilibrium in other words, that is the maximum we can afford to emit (to keep temperature rise maximum we can afford to emit (to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees).below 2 degrees).

By 2030 the earth’s population is expected to be in the By 2030 the earth’s population is expected to be in the region of 8.2 billion. region of 8.2 billion.

Dividing the total carbon sink by the number of people we Dividing the total carbon sink by the number of people we find that to achieve stabilisation the weight of carbon find that to achieve stabilisation the weight of carbon emissions (emissions (the carbon footprintthe carbon footprint) per person should be 0.33 ) per person should be 0.33 tonnes per year. tonnes per year.

How are we doing? How are we doing? The carbon footprint of the average western The carbon footprint of the average western

European is about 12 tonnes. European is about 12 tonnes. It’s nearly twice that for Americans and It’s nearly twice that for Americans and

Australians. Australians. The global average is about 4 tonnes per year. The global average is about 4 tonnes per year. In Africa and India it is 1 tonne. In Africa and India it is 1 tonne. The usual target for what it needs to be is 3 The usual target for what it needs to be is 3

tonnes … tonnes … … … which is still ten times too much. which is still ten times too much.

My carbon footprintMy carbon footprint

This figure will ultimately have This figure will ultimately have to drop to below 1 tonne if we to drop to below 1 tonne if we are to reach the level where are to reach the level where global emissions are low enough global emissions are low enough to match nature’s ability to to match nature’s ability to absorb them (which is maybe absorb them (which is maybe 10-20% of today’s emissions). 10-20% of today’s emissions).

We are not going to We are not going to change voluntarilychange voluntarily

Only 4% of people have made Only 4% of people have made substantial changes to the way they live. substantial changes to the way they live. Everyone else is waiting for everyone Everyone else is waiting for everyone else to act.else to act.

Global warming cannot be reined in Global warming cannot be reined in unless we persuade the government to unless we persuade the government to force us to change the way we liveforce us to change the way we live. .

Although developed countries are Although developed countries are responsible for only half of today’s responsible for only half of today’s emissions, they are responsible for 80% emissions, they are responsible for 80% of what is already thereof what is already there. .

What next?What next?

Wake up. Become aware.Wake up. Become aware. Check the websites and Check the websites and read moreread more. . Know the facts well enough to Know the facts well enough to

argue. argue. Support measures to combat climate Support measures to combat climate

change.change. Start with yourself. Start with yourself.

Why nuclear energy is not a Why nuclear energy is not a long-term solutionlong-term solution

The safety issue (remember Chernobyl) The safety issue (remember Chernobyl) The problem of radioactive waste The problem of radioactive waste The dangers of terrorism The dangers of terrorism Often a cloak for weapons development Often a cloak for weapons development Costs cloaked by subsidies Costs cloaked by subsidies Worldwide supplies of cheap uranium will only Worldwide supplies of cheap uranium will only

last a few decades last a few decades

Further studyFurther study

Heat. How to stop the planet burningHeat. How to stop the planet burning, by George Monbiot. Penguin Books, 2007. , by George Monbiot. Penguin Books, 2007.

How to live a low-carbon life: the individual’s guide to stopping climate change, How to live a low-carbon life: the individual’s guide to stopping climate change, by Chris by Chris Goodall. Earthscan, 2007. Goodall. Earthscan, 2007.

The Weather Makers. The History and Future Impact of Climate Change,The Weather Makers. The History and Future Impact of Climate Change, by Tim Flannery. by Tim Flannery. Penguin, Allen Lane, 2006. Penguin, Allen Lane, 2006.

The Hot Topic. How to tackle global warming and still keep the lights on,The Hot Topic. How to tackle global warming and still keep the lights on, by Gabrielle Walker by Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King. Bloomsbury, 2007. and Sir David King. Bloomsbury, 2007.

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter PlanetSix Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas. Harper Perennial, 2008., by Mark Lynas. Harper Perennial, 2008.

Laudato SiLaudato Si, by Pope Francis (2015), especially Chapter 1: What is happening to our common home? , by Pope Francis (2015), especially Chapter 1: What is happening to our common home?

This Changes EverythingThis Changes Everything, by Naomi Klein. Penguin Books, 2015., by Naomi Klein. Penguin Books, 2015.

National Geographic September 2004. National Geographic September 2004. Global Warning: Bulletins from a Warmer WorldGlobal Warning: Bulletins from a Warmer World..

Wikipedia: Kyoto Protocol http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/envsci/index.html www.lowcarbonlife.net http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/envsci/index.html