What Resources Matter to the Chemical Industry ?

Coal, Gas, Oil

Electricity (Hydro, nuclear or above)

Water (solvent, coolant)

Human Resources

IP

Metals (Fe ….. Rh)

Nonmetals (Chlorine, Bromine …. Selenium)

Minerals (CaMgCO3, Phosphates, Potassium…)

Reality Check I: Are we becoming more oil dependent ?

Tons of oil / Mio Euro of GDP (Germany)

Reality Check II: Are Commodities becoming Rare ?

Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)

Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)

Who digs Metals & Minerals ?

• Iron (CVRD)

• Base metals: Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni

• Precious Metals Ag, Au, Pd, Pt

How are metals classified ?

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Metals And Minerals: Zinc

• Brass (Cu-Zn alloy) known in Assyria & Babylon

• Up to 1800 exclusively mined in India, current mines in China, Canada, Japan, Australia Korea

• Byproduct of Pb, Cu, Ag mining

• 50 % used in galvanization (corrosion inhibition)

• 20 % used for brass

• Essential metal with no substitutes !

• Demand > supply, new mines planned in Bolivia, China

• Largest producer: Teck-Cominco (Canada)

• World production 10.3 Mio tons (2004), up 6% from 2003

• Price expected to rise due to lack of new mines & steeply rising demand from India/China (China Jan-Jul 2005: 67,000 t compared to 15,000 in 2004)

Metals And Minerals: Zinc

Zinc Prices

Zinc Inventory

Metals And Minerals: Nickel

• No technical use up to 1850

• At present 70 % used for stainless steel

• Largest producers: Norilsk Nickel (RUS) Inco (CAN), Australia 1.2 Mio tons (2004) Supply growing 5 % annually

• Worldwide demand for stainless steel growing 5% annuallyVosey's Bay, Inco planned for 2006: 60,000 t real production 2006 12,000 tRavensthorpe (AUS) 50,000 /y 2007

Nickel Prices

Nickel Inventory

Metals And Minerals: Pt - Pd

• Pt First described by Italian Humanist Caesar Scaliger but known to South American Indians before that.

• Usual product of Cu and Ni refining but pure Pt mines exist in South Africa

• Largest consumer: Car Catalysts, Ostwald Process

• Largest producer: Anglo Platinum• 80 % of Pt from S.A., tendency rising, Russian Production falling• 50 % of Pd from Russia• 850 $ /ounce Pt (Apr 2004: 994, 24 y high)• 170 $ /ounce Pd

Metals And Minerals: Cu

• 16.5 Mio t 2005. Largest Producer: Codelco (Chile)

• Producing countries US > CAN > Zaire, Sambia, Poland

• Indispensable electrical conductor (only Ag, Au are better)

• Currently trading at all time high

• No general agreement on price development Price predicted to fall in 2007 but rise again 2009

• Cu in Chile: 40 % of exports, 9 % of GDP• Escondida mine is 20 % of Chile’s coppper and 2.5 % of Chiles GDP• Supports 10,000 jobs

• Electrolytic Copper refining

Copper Prices

Copper Inventory

Silver

• Historical corellation with gold price weakening• Small market 10 % of Gold, strong price fluctuationsSideproduct of Ni, Pb, Cu, Au mining other mining activitiesMexico, Peru, Australia, China, Poland40 % industrial use (mainly electroncis, 30 jewlery, 25 % PhotographyIncreasing demand (electronics) declining reserves, no newminesCurrent reserves last a 5 years, 2011Largest Producers Rio Tinto (GB), BHP Minerals (AUS)End of film photography price drop, but slowly rising since 1998Currently 6 - 7 $ /ounce

Prejudice 1. Not enough areaExample Germany: Roof area 800 km2

= 175 TWh (Conversion 13.5%)= 33 % of current electricity use

Prejudice 2: Too expensive• Doubling of production capacity reducess price by 20 %• Break even point with current oil/gas prices I this decade

Prejudice 3: Negative energy balance• Current solar cells require 7 y to recover energy costs• Lifetime > 30 y• New energy saving photovoltaics (organic dyes) on horizon

Solar Energy - Silicon

• Solar electricity currently more expensive than fossil electricity

• Breakeven: 2011 (Germany) even earlier in California, Spain (China, India)

California, 12 pm: $ 0.8 conventional - $ 0.4 solar

• Will depend on political decisions (no incentive = baseline)

Solar Energy - Cost Analysis 2004 to 2050

• Annual growth: 25-30 %• $ 7 Billion (2004) up from 4.7 Billion (2003)• Expected 2010: $ 40 Billion (MKD: China ? India ?)• Demand for S.Cells outstrips supply (!)• Bottleneck: Supply of pure Si• Demand for Solar Si surpassed electronic Si in 2005

Installation (2004) • Germany 300 MW• Japan 280 MW• US 90 MW (booo)

Largest Players: 1. Sharp (Japan)2. BP (UK)3. Solarworld (Germany) - Best of breed4. Q-Cells (Germany

Solar Energy - Some Hard Facts

Solar Energy - The Market in 2006

Global revenues (2003) : $ 4.7 Bn

US Solar energy: 40 % global market (1997)13 % global market (2003)

•Solar energies daily profile matches demand (!)

• Rating of solar installations in kWp (kilpo Watt peak)• mono- or polycrystalline silicon dominant materials • Direct current, has to be changed to alternating current

Munich Terminal 2 - 450 MWh electricity = 400 t CO2 / year

US PRC JP RUS GER IND BRAS

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