What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs?

Some Food for Thought!Robert Shaw

Deputy Head, ITU Strategy and Policy Unit

Workshop: What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs?

23-24 March 2006

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

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Agenda

• Drivers for this workshop• Some “Food for Thought”!

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Drivers for this Workshop

• On NGN technical standardization, ITU fully engaged

• However, clear that convergence generally and IP-enabled NGNs means wave of major challenges for national policy makers and regulators

• We want to build an international dialogue on these issues including:

– building understanding of impact of convergence & NGNs

– sharing of national experiences and approaches– assistance in capacity building with developing

economies in transitioning to this new paradigm– understanding how policy & regulatory requirements

impact ITU’s NGN Global Standards Initiative (NGN-GSI)

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Some Food for Thought!

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The Impact of New Communications

Technologies• Technology-driven industries like

telecommunications historically characterized by steady growth punctuated by “giant leaps” forward, usually when “new” technology is introduced

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This has happened a number of times

• 1840’s: telegraph• 1870’s: telephone• 1890’s: radio telegraphy or “wireless”• 1920’s: radio broadcasting• 1950’s: television broadcasting • 1960’s: geostationary satellite

communications• 1970’s: computer communications• 1980’s: optical communications• 1990’s: internet and mobile• 2000’s: IP-enabled NGNs or Next Generation

Internet?

1865: ITU Created

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Current big picture trends• Birth of Broadband• Growth in wireless networks and mobile

data services• Mobile overtakes fixed• Convergence of IP-based networks with

telephone & mobile networks• End game: towards ubiquitous,

pervasive, grid, mesh, wireless networks

– anywhere, anytime, anything– positive side of “Minority Report’

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Predicting the future from the past…

• When we look back over history at any advancement in electronic communication networks, we tend to forget about the highs and the lows, the boom-bust cycles and the failed predictions about likely usage

• Is the internet killing the phone business?

• Or is the internet killing itself?

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History of the Internet1990’s• Growth throughout OECD countries• Begun “privatisation” of backbone• Primarily a channel for the Web and email• Wide disparity in connectivity• “Dot.com” mania rules• Some thought internet was suitable platform

to subsume all existing networks & services• Cocktail of over-investment, hyper-

competition and technological change lead to telecoms & internet recession

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Today (2006)

• Internet demographics shifting rapidly to Asia-Pacific (largest share of Internet & mobile users)

• Continued rapid innovation:– XML, Ajax, RSS, Torrents, Podcasts,

Web 2.0– Voice is just another application– but a number of clouds on internet

horizon• if not “Perfect Storm”

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Top Problems of the Internet• authentication• security• spam• scalable configuration management• robust scalability of routing system• compromise of e2e principle• dumb network• measurement• patch management• “normal accidents”• growth trends in traffic and user expectations• time management and prioritization of tasks• governance• intellectual property and digital rights• interdomain qos/emergency services• inter-provider vendor/business coordinationSource: K.C. Claffy at http://www.caida.org/publications/presentations/2005/topproblemsnet/topproblemsnet.pdf

why so persistently unsolvable?rooted in non-technical issues:economics, ownership, and trust

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Perfect Storm?• “It's time for a clean-slate approach”

– MIT's David D. Clark• “If fails to fail often enough so it looks like it

works.”– Mike O’Dell

• “The Internet is Broken”, David Talbot, Technology Review, Dec 2005/Jan 2006 in three parts: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

• E2E architecture means intelligence at edges of the network

– so security is every user’s problem – Internet evangelists: “the internet empowers users

to do anything you want!”• “O.K. I chose not to get spam”

• Is this supposed to be the critical information infrastructure of tomorrow?

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Are we approaching inflection point?

• Deployment of new communications technologies is typically a series of relatively short cycles of one or two decades’ duration:

– beginning with invention – early stages of rapid innovation and application – typically over-hyped and not used for original

purpose intended• took 30 years for telephone killer app to emerge!

– finally deployed in method that scales to support broader market acceptance and commoditization

– it may not end up being platform for techies or innovation

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Source: “The Transformation of Communications, Commerce & Society”, Stratton Sclavos, Verisign, Progress and Freedom Foundation Aspen Summit — August 2004

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So how do IP-enabled NGNs fit into this?

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ITU-T Definition of NGN (Y.2001)

• Next Generation Network (NGN): a packet-based network able to provide telecommunication services and able to make use of multiple broadband, QoS-enabled transport technologies and in which service-related functions are independent from underlying transport-related technologies.

• It enables unfettered access for users to networks and to competing service providers and/or services of their choice.

• It supports generalized mobility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users.

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Some different NGN visions

• PSTN on steroids? Internet on steroids?• To fix the internet mess?• Revenge of the telcos? Walled gardens?• The mobile operators got it right…• Attempt to move “up the value chain”

into data and audiovisual content– chasing video franchises

• A public infrastructure instantiation of the internet?

– replacement, evolution, co-existence?

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NGN Intelligent Infrastructures

• NGN core and access network infrastructures will be supplemented with an “intelligent infrastructure” or a “business layer” for IP networks capable of providing QoS, reliability and security assurances for multiple service scenarios across carriers

• With security problems, imagine this will necessarily emerge “out-of-band”

• Basis for identity, authentication, DRM, access to resources

• And intercarrier/service compensation mechanisms…

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NGN Public Infrastructure Requirements: what are some of capability requirements

likely to be required?

• Availability, Security and Legal– High availability

• analysis of network metrics and outages

– Network attack mitigation– Priority access during

emergencies– Alerts and notices during

emergencies– Restoration after emergencies– Personal emergency services– Preventing unwanted intrusions

• Filters (DoNotCAll)• Aids (CallerID)

– Law enforcement/judicial/national security assistance

– Cybercrime mitigation• Forensics capability• Fraud detection and

management• Digital rights management

– Universal access

• Competition Requirements– Unbundling– Service interoperability– User/subscriber access by service

providers– Default service and routing options– Nomadicity

• Number portability• Roaming• Payment method flexibility

• Operations Requirements– Directory access among providers– Intercarrier compensation– Transaction accounting

• Other Consumer Requirements – Disability assistance– Universal Service– Customer Proprietary Network

Information (CPNI) protection

See Tony Rutkowski’s presentation “Update on NGN Regulatory Issues” submitted to the workshop

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Other visions of next generation service providers? • Mega-internet service providers?

– Google, MSN, eBay and Yahoo– strong brands, deep pockets– entering voice markets – making forays into competitive

infrastructure provisioning– has market already spoken?– but who pays for the underlying

transport infrastructure?

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Source: Geoff Huston, Convergence at http://www.ptc06.org/program/public/proceedings/Geoff Huston_slides_M21.pdf

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And they also appear to be moving moving intelligence back into the

center of the network…

• Applications moving from PC to network core of network

– do you use Windows or Linux? Think!– Google office suite, e.g., Writely– Microsoft Office Live

• Is this the commoditization of the net?– Don’t have to worry about those backups!– Advertising driven (like TV & Radio)– Déjà vu all over again?

• http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/dejavu.html

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Interconnection

• Technologies and architecture of IP-enabled NGNs are fundamentally different from the PSTN

• This means new network topologies, associated costs and commercial models

• It is also likely to lead to the development of new IP-based interconnection arrangements that are service-based, rather than capacity-based, particularly for latency-sensitive (isochronous) traffic.

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Many issues…

• What will be the impact on current interconnection arrangements?

• What does interconnection mean in a multi-service NGN environment?

• Is there a need for mandated wholesale interconnection regimes?

• See Scott Marcus’ excellent extensive background paper reviewing PSTN & Internet interconnection to be presented here…

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a fundamental question

• In a multi-service communications environment, does it make sense to distinguish voice (including VoIP) as a service needing to be treated with a distinct set of policy, legislative and regulatory provisions?

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Forebearance please…• Incumbent carriers state that

commercial models for IP-enabled NGNs are at an early and evolutionary phase and that it is too early to discuss open access or wholesale mandated interconnection regimes.

• Also argued that IP-enabled NGNs, particularly the deployment of high-speed access networks (e.g. VTTx, VDSL), require massive investments and that “national regulatory moratoria” for incumbents are appropriate

• Capital markets seem to agree…

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Others say not so fast…• Competitive providers argue the opposite,

saying that regulators need to ask whether, in the absence of wholesale economic regulation, will market dynamics be sufficient to ensure a competitive environment?

• They are worried that without immediate attention by regulators to NGNs, carriers will rapidly vertically integrate services and that bottlenecks will emerge for delivery of audiovisual content…

• Is it just the traditional carriers that we need to be worried about?

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Double standards?

• “Let's see if I can summarize [network neutrality debates].

– BAD: Verizon and SBC want to charge for "premium" access to their network.

– GOOD: Yahoo and AOL want to charge for "premium" access to their network/servers

What am I missing here?”• Rick Adams, founder of UUNet, first US

ISP

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Further down the road: Content without Frontiers

• Convergence is setting two very different regulatory cultures on a rapid collision course: the highly-interventionist regulatory culture of broadcasting and less interventionist (at least with regard to content) culture of telecommunications

• Particularly sensitive topic as the regulation of audiovisual content industries is culturally embedded and tied to national regulatory regimes consistent with cultural and religious values

– What about advertising, public broadcasting, content diversity (e.g., support for national content production), licensing, quality, decency and protection from abusive uses and community standards?

– What are the implications for trade in cross-border audio-visual services?

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To sum up, it looks like we have

much to talk about!

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Thank you