What’s been happening in the local jobs market?

Can we make predictions about future employment opportunities?

What can you do to improve your chances of getting the job you want?

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING INTHE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

• The structure of the UK economy has been changing

• Recession and the nature of the economic recovery have accelerated this change

• The types of employment opportunities that have come back are different

• Full-time employee jobs are down• Part-time, temporary and self-employment is up• The growth in part-time work is partly responsible

for one in five young people in work being under-employed - more than any other age group

• Young people are competing with older experienced workers for the middle jobs

• Higher level growth occupations are only available to graduates

• Growth in employment at the top, decline in the middle and stagnation at the bottom

• Young people are generally being recruited to a narrow range of occupations and sectors

• Pre-recession, 40% of employers recruited young people – now only 27%

• Employer recruitment practices are changing

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

• When an employer recruits a young person and finds them poorly equipped for work it is usually due to lack of experience

• If an employer rejects an application from a young person it is mostly because of lack of experience

• The most effective way of building networks is work experience

• Growth occupations are the least likely to recruit young people

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

• There has been a shortage of non-graduate routes to higher level jobs

• Only 15% of UK businesses offer apprenticeships, but 25% of those who don’t currently offer apprenticeships expect to in the next 2-3 years*

• Candidates’ qualifications play some part in most employers’ recruitment decisions and a significant role for around 40%*

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

* UK Commission’s Employer Perspectives Survey 2012

• The most commonly used way that employers find candidates to fill vacant posts is by word of mouth*

• In 2012 62% of UK employers who had recruited new employees in the previous 12 months had recruited a young person*

• A quarter of all UK employers offered a placement to school, college or university students in 2012*

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

* UK Commission’s Employer Perspectives Survey 2012

The main benefits reported by employers who have recruited young people were…

• an ability to be moulded (32%)• enthusiasm (30%)• willingness to learn (20%)

The main barriers to recruiting young people were seen to be…

• a lack experience (29%)• insufficient skills (23%)• qualifications (15%)

WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET?

PREDICTING THE FUTURE

In 1900 engineer John Watkins wrote an article making a series of predictions about the future...

WRITER

FORESAW

i-PHONES IN

1900!

WATKINS CORRECTLY PREDICTED…

Digital photography The internet Mobile phones Ready-made meals TV and radio Central heating Air conditioning High speed trains Population growth Increasing height

HE GOT SOME THINGS WRONG...

Increased fitness levels Mosquitoes exterminated No C, X or Q in the alphabet Horses extinct Free university education

WHERE WILL THE JOBS BE IN THE FUTURE?

• Forecasting the future is like driving whilst looking in the rear view mirror

• Many jobs of the future don’t actually exist today

• It’s important to understand the trends that are driving change

‘Start from the assumption that 2020 will look nothing like now’Stephanie Bird - Director of HR CapabilityChartered Institute of Personnel & Development

LABOUR MARKET & SKILLS

REGULATION & GOVERNANCE

LocalNational

International Sectoral DEMOGRAPHIC

CHANGE

Ageing populationMigrationGrowth

ECONOMICS & GLOBALISATION

AidTrade

Competition

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Climate changeResource shortagePollution

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

ICTBio & Nanotech

Security

VALUES & IDENTITIES

EducationIndividual

Group

CONSUMER DEMAND

New marketsChoice

INFLUENCES ON THE LABOUR MARKET

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

JOBS IN 2020BODY PART MAKERLiving body parts for athletes and soldiersNANO-MEDICNanotechnology advances mean sub-atomic treatments could transform healthcareGM OR RECOMBINANT FARMEREngineered crops and livestockELDERLY WELLNESS CONSULTANTAs an ageing population increases in size, we’ll need people to tend to their physical and mental needsMEMORY AUGMENTATION SURGEONSurgeons could boost patients’ memory when it hits capacity.NEW SCIENCE ETHICISTWith the rise of cloning and other ethically difficult areas, ethicists will be needed to make decisions and give guidance

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

JOBS IN 2020

SPACE PILOTS, TOUR GUIDES AND ARCHITECTSSpace tourism will allow for space pilots, tour guides and the architects that will allow them to live in lunar outpostsVERTICAL FARMERSThe future of farming is straight up - vertical farms in urban areas could significantly increase food supplyCLIMATE CHANGE REVERSAL SPECIALISTWe’ll need scientists who specialize in altering the climateQUARANTINE ENFORCERWhen a deadly virus spreads rapidly, quarantine enforcers will enforce restrictionsWEATHER MODIFICATION POLICEIf weather patterns can be altered and adversely affect other parts of the world, law enforcement will be needed to keep things legal

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

JOBS IN 2020VIRTUAL LAWYERAs international law grows to supercede national law, lawyers will be needed to handle cases that involve people living in several nations with different lawsCLASSROOM AVATAR MANAGERIntelligent avatars may replace classroom teachers, but the human touch will be needed to properly match teacher to studentALTERNATIVE VEHICLE DEVELOPERSZero-emission cars will need smart people to design and manufacture themNARROWCASTERSAs in, the opposite of broadcaster, media will grow increasingly personalised, and this will need to be managedLOCAPRENEURLocal business innovators will thrive as people become increasingly mistrustful of large corporations

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

JOBS IN 2020

WASTE DATA HANDLERWaste data handlers will effectively destroy digital data for security purposesVIRTUAL CLUTTER ORGANISERNow that your electronic life is more cluttered than your physical one, you’ll need someone to clean up your e-mail, desktop and user accountsTIME BROKER/TIME BANK TRADERMore valuable than precious metals, stones or cash - your timeSOCIAL NETWORKING WORKERA social worker for the web generationONLINE EDUCATION BROKEROpportunities as courses become increasingly available internationally and personalised to individuals

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

Shop assistant Construction worker Soldier

JOBS THAT COULD BE AT RISK BY 2020

THE SHAPE OF JOBS TO COME...(Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development)

Nurse Politician Writer Artist Entertainer Undertaker Religious leader Lawyer

JOBS THAT MAY CONTINUE TO EXIST...

WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN LOCALLY?

• Between 2010 and 2016 analysts’ forecasts suggest that the number of jobs in the West of England will increase by 16,720.

• The greatest level of jobs growth expected in the West of England is within the Professional, Finance and Insurance sector - with an additional 13,406 jobs

• Jobs will be available in sectors with ageing workforces as workers retire - additional to jobs growth

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN KEY LOCAL EMPLOYMENT SECTORS?

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AND AEROSPACE

• The skills need is primarily at a higher level including engineering professionals, design and development engineers and software professionals

• Some recovery in lower level skills is expected -production workers, engineering technicians and draughtspersons

• A shortfall exists between skills supply and demand at Level 4

  

CREATIVE INDUSTRIES

• A net growth of 800 jobs is predicted in the period 2010-16. Most of these jobs (80%) will require Level 5 or 6 qualifications

• Significant additional demand may be driven by initiatives such as the Creative Hub in the Temple Quarter Enterprise Zone in Bristol, which is hoping to generate around 17,000 jobs by 2030 and where new models of FE provision will be tested

  

LOW CARBON INDUSTRIES

• Linked with renewable energy, environmental protection and technologies, construction and manufacturing, water, waste management and recycling

• The Regional Growth Fund bid is confident of providing evidence for 533 new jobs by 2015 and safeguarding a further 970 jobs by 2015

• Focused on upskilling existing construction service trades, (electricians and plumbers) to be accredited to retrofit properties with energy efficiency measures and renewable energy installations

HIGH TECH & MICROELECTRONICS

• A decline is expected reflecting assumptions of continued outsourcing activities and a narrowing focus in this sector

• This may be offset by a high level of innovation• Whilst it is unlikely to contribute to jobs growth, the

sector needs re-skilling to maintain its GVA growth

PROFESSIONAL FINANCE & INSURANCE

• Very significant jobs growth of 13,406 is anticipated in the short term (2010-16) with all the industries forecast to grow

• Technological changes underlie occupational growth in software professionals, ICT managers and technology managers

• Demand at all levels, but notable shortage of marketing and sales managers

TOURISM

• 15% growth is forecast between 2010 and 2016 - notably in the hotel, accommodation, and camping industries

• The fastest growing occupations are within catering and cleaning where most occupational growth requires qualification at Level 2

• There is an upward shift in skills requirement with 24% of new jobs requiring Level 3

• High level of churn and replacement demand in Level 2 occupations (receptionists, chefs, waiting staff, kitchen staff, groundsmen and bar staff)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST OF ENGLAND

KEY MESSAGES

• Recession and fewer job opportunities• Changes in Higher Education• Government encouragement of apprenticeships• Increasing opportunities for higher skilled work• Fewer opportunities for unskilled work• Employers want people to have employability skills• Employers want relevant work experience• Government wants to see work experience in Post 16• Increasing levels of youth unemployment• Opportunities for work and study abroad• Personal preparation and planning is vital

HOW DO YOU IMPROVE YOUR PROSPECTS?

RESEARCH INTO FUTURE POSSIBILITIES• Think about the work you think you might like• Find out about the qualifications and skills needed• Speak to someone doing that work• Get relevant work experience

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO IMPROVE YOUR PROSPECTS?

IMPROVE YOUR EMPLOYABILITY SKILLS*• Communication• Interpersonal skills• Problem solving• Self-motivation• Initiative• Working under pressure• Organisational skills• Team working• Learning and adapting• Numeracy• Negotiating• Valuing diversity

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO IMPROVE YOUR PROSPECTS?

* The top 10 employment skills identified by 20 large UK companies

GET ORGANISED• Write a personal statement• Update your CV (or start a new one)• Ask for help (if you need to)

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO IMPROVE YOUR PROSPECTS?

GOOD LUCK!

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO IMPROVE YOUR PROSPECTS?