Date post: | 25-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | camilla-payne |
View: | 223 times |
Download: | 0 times |
What’s Behind the Regional Personal Income Statistics
Robert L. BrownCalibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and
Tools for Assessing Our State and Local Economies
Reno, NevadaFebruary 2, 2007
2www.bea.gov
Overview
▪ Personal income & its chief alternatives
▪ Revision schedule▪ Sources of personal income by
component▪ Employment and why BLS & BEA
job counts differ
3www.bea.gov
Alternative Incomes
Per Capita Income (dollars), Nevada, 2004
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Adjusted GrossIncome (IRS)
Money Income(Census)
PersonalIncome (BEA)
4www.bea.gov
Per Capita Income Change 2000-01
(Dollars)
Nevada
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Adjusted GrossIncome (IRS)
Money Income(Census)
PersonalIncome (BEA)
5www.bea.gov
Per Capita Income, 2004, dollars
Adjusted Gross
Income (IRS)
Money Income
(Census)
Personal Income
(BEA)
California 24,601 23,250 35,219
Nevada 27,016 22,360 33,787
Oregon 20,544 21,386 30,561
Utah 18,578 18,592 26,603
6www.bea.gov
Some differences between BEA, Census, & IRS
▪ Definitional differences Transfers, in cash, in kind Capital gains Pension benefits FICA taxes Misreporting
▪ Production of the estimates Revisions
7www.bea.gov
Revision Schedule
2005 2008 200920072006
MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MAR
MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MAR
Jobs for 2005:Q1
Misc. late or revised quarterly
data
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Benchmark revision, all
years
Wages for 2005:Q1
USDA, Transfers for
2005
SOI Dividends,
interest & rent for 2005
SOI Proprietors’income for
2005
2005 2008 200920072006
MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MARMAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MAR
MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MARMAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP MAR JUNE SEP JUNE SEP MAR
Jobs for 2005:Q1Jobs for 2005:Q1
Misc. late or revised quarterly
data
Misc. late or revised quarterly
data
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Misc. late or revised
data for 2005
Benchmark revision, all
years
Benchmark revision, all
years
Wages for 2005:Q1
Wages for 2005:Q1
USDA, Transfers for
2005
SOI Dividends,
interest & rent for 2005
SOI Dividends,
interest & rent for 2005
SOI Proprietors’income for
2005
SOI Proprietors’income for
2005
8www.bea.gov
Revisions
▪ Regular revision schedule to incorporate data that are: More complete More detailed More appropriate
▪ Comprehensive revisions every 5 years Definitional changes Statistical changes Presentational changes
9www.bea.gov
Personal Income: income from all sources
▪ Income from labor services Compensation
▪ Income from household enterprises Proprietors’ income Net rent
▪ Income from ownership of capital Dividends Interest
▪ Taxes and transfers
10www.bea.gov
Derivation of Disposable Personal Income
Wage and salary disbursements+ Supplements to wages and salaries= Compensation+ Proprietors’ income= Earnings (pow) — Contributions for govt. social
insurance+ Adjustment for residence= Earnings (por)+ Dividends, interest, and rent+ Personal current transfer receipts= Personal income— Personal current taxes= Disposable personal income
11www.bea.gov
How We Produce the Estimates
▪ Administrative record information Advantage--provides detailed information at
low cost Disadvantage--does not precisely match
what is being estimated Adjustments made to compensate for differences
in definition, coverage, and geographic detail
▪ Some census data--quinquennial Agriculture and decennial Population and Housing
▪ Very little from survey information
12www.bea.gov
Sources of Data
Other
CMS SSA
IRS
BLS
PersonalIncome
60%
23%
6%6%
5%
13www.bea.gov
Wage & Salary Disbursements
▪ 55% of personal income (2005)▪ Based primarily on edited ES 202 report
(QCEW)▪ Excellent quality--Most workers are
covered by UI▪ Data adjusted upward by ~6% for
uncovered workers & under-reported wages & tips
▪ Data are by place of work
14www.bea.gov
Wage & Salary Disbursements
▪ Includes: Salaries of corporate officers Bonuses and incentive pay Pay in kind (meals, lodging, clothing) Commissions & Tips Stock options Severance pay Employee contributions to defined
compensation plans
15www.bea.gov
Real Wages – Nevada & US
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Nevada
US
16www.bea.gov
Supplements to Wages & Salaries
▪ 13% of personal income▪ Employer contributions to:
Pension & private insurance funds (9%)
Govt. social insurance funds (4%)
17www.bea.gov
Supplements as a % of Compensation, Nevada 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
Social Assistance
Private SectorAvg
Arts, entertainment& recreation
Federal,civilian
Military
2005 data
18www.bea.gov
Real Compensation & Wages per Worker,U.S., 2000=1.00
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Compensation
Wages
19www.bea.gov
Real Compensation & Wages per Worker,Nevada, 2000=1.00
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wages
Compensation
20www.bea.gov
Real Compensation & Wages per Worker,California, 2000=1.00
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Compensation
Wages
21www.bea.gov
Proprietors’ income
▪ 9.2% of personal income (farm 0.4%, nonfarm 8.8%)
▪ Accounting framework▪ Nonfarm: Based on tabulations of
IRS tax returns—Schedule C & Form 1065
▪ Farm: Based on USDA data▪ Adjusted for misreported income
22www.bea.gov
Contributions to Nevada Earnings Growth,2006:3
-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
FarmForestry, f ishing, relatedMiningUtilitiesConstructionDurable goodsNondurable goodsWholesale tradeRetail tradeTransportation, w arehousingInformationFinance and insuranceReal estate, rental, leasingProfessional, technicalMgt of companies, enterprisesAdministrative, w asteEducational servicesHealth care, social assistanceArts, entertainment, recreationAccommodation, foodOther servicesFederal, civilianMilitaryState and local
0
23www.bea.gov
Contributions for Govt. Social Insurance
▪ 8% of personal income▪ This is a deduction in the
derivation of personal income▪ Mostly contributions for Social
Security & Medicare▪ Contributions from Employers,
Employees, & the Self-Employed
24www.bea.gov
Major Social Insurance Programs
▪ OASDI (Social Security)▪ Health Insurance (Medicare)▪ Unemployment Insurance▪ Workers’ Compensation▪ Supplementary Medical Insurance▪ Temporary Disability Insurance▪ Veterans’ Life Insurance▪ Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation▪ Railroad Employee Retirement
Insurance
25www.bea.gov
Adjustment for Residence
▪ <0.5% of personal income nationally Nevada: -0.6%
Clark, NV -1.1% Washoe, NV -1.6%
Oregon: -2.0% California: >-0.1%
San Francisco -30.0% Utah: <0.1%
▪ Inter-county commuters Based on Census Journey to Work data &
updated with IRS wages (por)
▪ Border commuters Based on BEA Balance of Payments data
▪ Exceptions: College students Migratory workers
26www.bea.gov
Adjustment for Residence
▪ Place of work compensation and earnings Shows location of production Used as proxy for current production
▪ Place of residence income Indicator of economic well-being Shows where income is available for
tax planning and for spending analyses
27www.bea.gov
Dividends, Interest, & Rent
▪ 16% of personal income▪ Almost half of interest is received
by pension funds and life insurance carriers on behalf of persons
▪ About 20% of interest is an imputation for banking and other services
▪ National estimate is distributed regionally on the basis of tabulations of income tax returns and Census housing statistics
28www.bea.gov
Personal Current Transfer Receipts
▪ 15% of personal income▪ Includes in-kind transfers such as
Medicare & Medicaid▪ Excludes in-kind transfers such as
housing and public schools▪ Based on primary data tabulated
by state or county
29www.bea.gov
CA30 Regional Economic ProfilesWashoe, NV
30www.bea.gov
Nevada Per Capita Dividends, Interest, Rent
31www.bea.gov
CA35 Personal Current Transfer Receipts—Nye, NV
32www.bea.gov
Personal Current Taxes
▪ 11% of personal income▪ Mostly income taxes▪ Property taxes deducted in
derivation of rental income▪ Sales taxes are considered part of
personal consumption expenditure
33www.bea.gov
State & Local Personal Taxes as a % of 2005 Personal Income: US=2.7%
0
1
2
3
4
5
CA NV OR UT
34www.bea.gov
Federal Personal Taxes as a % of Personal Income: US=9.1%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CA NV OR UT
35www.bea.gov
Personal Income
▪ Comprehensive▪ Timely
Quarterly income by sector is available 3 months after end of period
▪ Historical Comparability▪ County-based local areas
36www.bea.gov
Caveats
▪ Extreme per capita income Unusual conditions such as bumper
crop, drought, or hurricane Special populations such as college
students, prisoners Major construction projects
37www.bea.gov
Employment Data
▪ Total employment: Wage & salary jobs Sole proprietorships General partners
▪ Job Count not Worker Count Earnings and employment are
consistent Earnings per job
38www.bea.gov
BEA vs. BLS Employment
Total Employment, QCEW 127.8Misreporting adjustment 2.8Exempt employment 3.4Other employment 3.1
W&S Employment, BEA 137.1Proprietors employment 29.9
Total Employment, BEA 167.0
US, millions of jobs
QCEW and BEA employment estimates, 2003
39www.bea.gov
MSA Income and Employment Growth(% change 2002-03)
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Wage and Salary Employment, % change
Per
son
al I
nco
me,
% c
han
ge
inflation rate, 1.9%
40www.bea.gov
For Further Information
Working papers available at
http://www.bea.gov/bea/regional/articles.cfm?section=papers
Alternative Measures of Household Income: BEA Personal Income, CPS Money Income and Beyond by John W. Ruser, Adrienne T. Pilot, and Charles Nelson
Reliability of the State Personal Income Estimates by Robert L. Brown, Bruce T. Grimm, and Marian B. Sacks
Using Efficiency Tests to Reduce Revisions in Panel Data: The Case of Wage and Salary Estimates for U.S. States by Jeremy J. Nalewaik
State Pension Benefit Estimates
Methodologies available athttp://www.bea.gov/bea/regional/articles.cfm?section=methods