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Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog From Gov2.0 in 2010 … to Gov3.0 in 2020 What’s Next? EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio
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So
urc
e: M
att
Nova
k’s
Pale
o-F
utu
reb
log From Gov2.0 in 2010
… to Gov3.0 in 2020
What’sNext?
EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio
Page 2
EDB 2010
The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be Paul Valery
Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog
Page 5
EDB 2010
Page 6
EDB 2010
Page 7
EDB 2010
From change as the exceptionto …
… change
as the norm
Underlying megatrends that are shaping tomorrow
Towards 2020
Once again, industrialisation
is changing our society…
.. but now with an abundant access to raw materials:
CPU capacity continues to double every 18 months
(”Moore’s Law”)
130x
from 2010
to 2020
Storage capacity continues to double every 12 months
(”Kryder’s Law”)
2,000x(in 10 years)
… and then, with startling speed; Network bandwidth
triples every 18 months (”Gilder’s Law”)
ICT∑Possibilities ∞→
ICT∑ Price → 0
Two remarkable rules seem to apply for the primary means of production
in the information society:
Page 14
EDB 2010
$600M
x36
STILL…
«Cheap, utility-supplied computing will ultimately change society as profoundly as cheap electricity did»
Nicholas Carr
The widespread democratisation of means of production and distribution is impacting and transforming our society more than the industrial revolution
Et voilà; Une explosion de l'information!
It is estimated that one week of newspaper content …
.. equals more information than one person received during a
lifetime in the 18th century
It is calculated that the global content production this year will amount to
1,000 exabyte
Source: “The Expanding Digital Universe,”
IDC; sponsored by EMC
…or more content than
was produced during the
previous 5,000 years
(combined)
> 4B pictures uploaded to Flickr (as of October 2009)
> 2B new pictures uploaded to Facebook – each month
13 hours-uploaded video to YouTube
-every minute
247 billion- number of e-mails per day in 2009
(81 percent was spam…)
Up Next:
“The Internet of Things”
«In 2011, 2B people will be connected to the internet – as well as 1,000B things» Bob Sutor, IBM
Page 29
EDB 2010
From
Desktop to
Mobile to
1.1
1.4
5.0
.. combined
Now there are twice as many mobile phones in our world asTV sets and PCs …
But we are just in the early stages of the 5th IT wave, The Mobile Internet
Page 31
EDB 2010
Kilde: comScore Global 1/10
Page 32
Source: John Batelle, Wired
EDB 2010
Mobile internet will open new opportunities
YouT
ube
–A
ugm
ente
dR
ealit
yon
iPhone
“Everyware” adding to
a vast sea of information..every second ..of every hour ..of every day
ST.OLAV HOSPITALOne of the most modern
hospitals in Europe
NUI – Natural User Interfaces – the new standard
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EDB 2010
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EDB 2010
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EDB 2010
Page 42
EDB 2010
..and movement2 loudspeakers
HD Video
Front camera
5MP camera
UMTS / 3G
Bluetooth, WiFi
2 microphones
HD Screen
Multi Touch
A-GPS
Compass
Sensors for light
..and proximity
..and moisture
Packed with sensors, the iPhone
…
…defines the best
practice NUI-platform
“Once social change begins, it cannot be reversed”
Towards 2020
Cesar Chavez
A Rapidly Aging
Population…
Source: Finance Dep, Norway
1967: 3.9 workers
per retired person
2003: 2.6 workers
per retired person
2050: 1.6 workers
per retired person
Oslo University Hospital is one of Northern Europe’s largest …
Norway will have to build 6 hospitals like it to meet the needs from 2020
So
urc
e: S
INT
EF
, o
ct2
00
9
¾ of all graduates must begin to work within the health care sector
Source: SINTEF,
oct 2009
Challenges are formidable!
To a far greater extent than today, public sector needs to exploit opportunities from self service, automation and collaboration #opengov #gov20 #health20
MORE FROM IT.
Page 51
EDB 2010
Most sectors are facing extensive efficiency improvements needs –and will have to learn from the banks’ journey of the last decade, from manual processes to self-service and automation by default
Page 52
EDB 2010
There will be an increased competition for the best minds, with an IT focus on Collaboration, HR & Brand Mgmt
Digital Natives
Set the Agenda
Keeping up with the Joneses: The Hunt for Comfort
The Lack of Cash,
Products & Options
*Picture source: Google Image Search
The Hunt for Meaning
The Lack of Trust,Time & Attention
More informed
More educated
More mobile
Still a ”youngster”
at 30 years, she
demands to be
involved
«Bathed in Bits since Birth»"Growing Up Digital", Don Tapscott
…and networking since birth
Consumo Ergo Sum
"People want to be part of
something larger than
themselves. They want to
be part of something they
are really proud of, that
they’ll fight for, sacrifice for,
trust." Howard Schultz, Starbucks
“What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him”
Harley-Davidson
Rather than the product, they buy
the story
Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
They arethe most activein finding public
information in new contexts and the
least satisfied with access as it is
today
Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
Never considered
”cold”, ICT is their primarysocial glue
Scenarios 2020
Towards 2020
Rebooting Democracy –A New Model Emerging
Industry
Society
Information
Society
Democracy Represented Participatory
CitizensPassive
Receivers
Active
Partners
PoliticsOne-to-many,
Polarised
One-to-One
Needs Oriented
National
State
National,
Mono-cultural
”Glocal”,
Multi-cultural
(1) Ensuring openness & transparency
(2) Lowering the cost of government
(3) Cyber-Security(4) Participatory
democracy (5) Innovation
The agenda of Obama’s CIO, Vivek Kundra, points the way forward:
more global
more local
more
colle
ctiv
em
ore
indiv
idual
From ”EDB Digital Public Sector Scenario Planning 2015
My Multimedia Experience Our Online Global Village
My Personal Off-Line Zone Our Local Community
Technology alone will not create change
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process CHANGE!
Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process
Vision Incentives Resources Plan & Process
Vision Competencies Resources Plan & Process
Vision Competencies Incentives Plan & Process
Source: APQC
CONFUSION..
CONCERN..
REFUSAL…
FRUSTRATION..
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources DELAYS..
«If your only tool is a hammer, every
problem looks like a nail»Bernard Baruch
Page 68
THA
NKS
