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Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 1 WHAT'S TRENDING, WHO'S SPENDING: HOLIDAY SHOPPING 2016
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 1
WHAT'S TRENDING,WHO'S SPENDING:HOLIDAY SHOPPING 2016
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 2
HOLIDAY SHOPPING
The largest seasonal shopping period of the year is nearly upon us and it might be the biggest one yet. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday season retail sales to increase 3.6% to $656 billion in the United States this year.* Furthermore, the NRF expects online sales to grow between 7% and 10% to as much as $117 billion.*
Given the critical importance of the holiday season to retailers, we surveyed 1,993 American consumers to get a better sense of how they will shop this holiday season and how they perceive holiday marketing efforts.
* National Retail Federation, Press Release October 4, 2016
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 3
HOW THEY’LL SHOPA little over a quarter of Americans say they will spend less this holiday season. Though the NRF is expecting an overall uptick in holiday spending this year, that won’t hold true for all Americans, with 26% planning to spend less and over half (53%) looking to spend the same amount as last year.
Cyber Monday will be as big of a shopping event as Black Friday. 40% of Americans plan to shop online on Cyber Monday, while 39% will shop in stores on Black Friday.
The holiday shopping season keeps starting sooner. 1 in 3 (34%) Americans started holiday shopping before September! Only 1 in 5 (20%) say they will first start their holiday shopping in December.
THE MARKETING OF THE 2016 HOLIDAY SEASONAmericans want to see more religion in holiday marketing. More than two-fifths (43%) of Americans say holiday marketing has been watered down to take out religious symbols that they’d like to see, while just under a fifth of shoppers (17%) think there is too much emphasis on religion in holiday marketing.
It’s not just about TV anymore. 2016 will truly be the year of omni-channel holiday shopping, with consumers rating at least five advertising channels (direct mail, print ads, television, email, and online ads) as nearly equally important in determining where they shop and what they’ll buy this season.
Clicks beat bricks for holiday shopping research. 36% of shoppers said that they will do most of their product research via retail websites and another 18% said they will do most of their research using mobile apps, leaving only 47% who say they will do the majority of their research in stores.
We hope that you will enjoy the report and welcome your feedback!
–The Fluent Research Team [email protected]
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 4
WILL YOU SPEND MORE, LESS OR ABOUT THE SAME ON HOLIDAY PURCHASES AS YOU DID LAST YEAR?
More About the Same Less
AllRespondents
21%
53%
26%
Ages 18-44
51%
23% 26%
Ages 45+
28%
55%
17%
ABOUT A QUARTER OF AMERICANS SAY THEY WILL SPEND LESS THIS HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON
HOW AMERICANS WILL SHOP
Despite the NRF expecting a bump in overall holiday spending this year, there are many Americans who report different plans. More Americans (26%) said they will spend less than last year, compared to those that said they would spend more (21%). Over half of those surveyed (53%) said they plan to spend about the same as they did last year on holiday purchases.
Any rise in overall holiday spending may come from younger Americans, who report a higher likelihood than older Americans to spend more this year than last year.
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 5
HOLIDAY SHOPPING EARLY BIRDS OUTNUMBER PROCRASTINATORSMarketers would be wise to target holiday shoppers at various points during the season, as shopping patterns vary between early birds and procrastinators.
Over 1 in 3 Americans started their holiday shopping in September or sooner and a majority (53%) plan to start before the calendar shifts to November. However, even though many Americans are starting their holiday shopping early, there remains a sizable number of procrastinators (20%) who will wait until December to start.
Nearly 3 in 10 Americans say they will finish their holiday shopping by the end of November. Among those who started shopping by October, 70% will wrap up their holiday shopping by December; whereas, 20% plan to begin shopping in December.
Nearly half (47%) of all Americans leave at least some shopping until the end of the year, waiting to finish shopping in mid-December or the week before Christmas.
30%
20%
10%
0
13%
8%
13%
19%
28%
20%
IN WHAT MONTH DO YOU OR DID YOU START YOUR HOLIDAY SHOPPING?
WHEN DO YOU EXPECT TO FINISH YOUR HOLIDAY SHOPPING?All Started in October or Earlier Started in November or Later
0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Before November
starts
During November
Early December
Mid-December
The week before
Christmas
13%21%
4%
16%20%
11%
25%29%
20%
23%17%
30%
24%12%
36%
July or earlier August September October November December
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 6
CYBER MONDAY WILL MATCH OR BEAT BLACK FRIDAY
40% of Americans say they will shop online on Cyber Monday, compared with 39% who say they will shop on Black Friday. Younger Americans are more likely to shop on both Black Friday and Cyber Monday than older Americans.
39%
61%
Ages 18-44
47%
53%
Ages 45+
32%
68%
DO YOU PLAN TO SHOP ON BLACK FRIDAY, THE FRIDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING?
Yes No
Ages 18-44
44%
56%
40%
60%
Ages 45+
36%
64%
DO YOU PLAN TO SHOP ONLINE ON CYBER MONDAY, THE MONDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING?
Yes No
Nearly 2 in 3 (65%) think the discounts are not worth dealing with crowds and long lines. However, younger Americans 18-44 are more likely to brave the crowds as only 57% think the discounts are not worth it.
AllRespondents
AllRespondents
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 7
9%
14%
20% 20%
YOU MAY WANT ELECTRONICS, BUT YOU’RE PROBABLY GETTING CLOTHESElectronics (34%) are the most wanted gift category, driven by strong interest from men (42%). Clothing & shoes (20%) is a distant second.
Gift certificates (14%) and cash are also preferred (11%) by many Americans, particularly women (32% combined).
Even though electronics is the most wanted gift category, it ranks second as the most given gift category, behind clothing & shoes.
Gift givers often opt for the ease of gift certificates or cash, which if combined, would be the most frequently given type of gift.
WHAT TYPE OF GIFTS DO YOU GIVE MOST FREQUENTLY?
21%
25%
17%
12%10%
5% 6%
3% 2%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
42%
34%
6%4%5% 4%
16%
27%
2%2%2% 2% 2%1%1%
6%
24%
Electronics
Electronics
Clothing & Shoes
Clothing & Shoes
Gift certificates
Gift certificates
Cash
Cash
Books
Books
Sporting goods
Sporting goods
Food and beverages
Food and beverages
Cosmetics or grooming
products
Cosmetics or grooming
products
DVDs, music & games
DVDs, music & games
11%11%12%
WHAT TYPE OF GIFT WOULD YOU MOST WANT TO RECEIVE?All Men Women
11%8%
5%
Roughly 2 in 3 Americans prefer to give (67%) and receive (65%) products over experiences as gifts.
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 8
HOW IMPORTANT IS [INSERT CHANNEL] IN DETERMINING WHERE YOU SHOP FOR HOLIDAY PURCHASES?
Extremely importantVery importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
13% 21% 31% 15% 20%
19%13% 32% 17% 19%
18%13% 25% 19% 24%
18%13% 29% 20% 20%
17%11% 27% 21% 25%
13%9% 30% 23% 25%
16% 20% 25% 17% 22%
OMNI-CHANNEL STRATEGY KEY TO REACHING AMERICAN CONSUMERS
While advertising on television is still critical, with almost a third (32%) of survey respondents saying they respond to TV ads when making decisions on what to buy, it isn’t the only marketing channel making significant inroads with shoppers.
Marketers need to use more than one way to reach holiday shoppers, as five advertising channels (direct mail, print ads, television, email, and online ads) were all considered “very” or “extremely” important by about a third of holiday shoppers.
Only ads on social media and radio advertising lagged when consumers were asked what types of marketing move them to make purchase decisions.
THE MARKETING OF 2016’S HOLIDAY SEASON
Direct Mail
Print advertising
Television advertising
Email advertising
Online advertising
Ads on social media
Radio advertising
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 9
DIGITAL DOMINATES FOR PRODUCT RESEARCH, BUT MOST SHOPPING WILL STILL TAKE PLACE OFFLINEA majority of shoppers (54%) will use either retail websites (36%) or mobile apps (18%) to research products. Men, younger Americans, and Android users are more apt to research products through digital channels this holiday season.
WHERE WILL YOU RESEARCH THE MOST PRODUCTS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?
In Stores Retailer websites Mobile apps
All 18-44 45+Men Women
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
18%14%
11%
26%
47%
39%
52%
36%35%
50%
37%
22%
43%
35%36%
By gender By age
*Less than half (49%) of Americans are very confident that all of their holiday packages will arrive on time this year.
MOST PURCHASES WILL STILL BE COMPLETED IN BRICK-AND-MORTAR STORESOnly 22% of Americans say they will make the majority of their purchases online this year and nearly 1 in 3 Americans (32%) will make all of their purchases in stores.
WHICH BEST DESCRIBES HOW MUCH OF YOUR HOUSEHOLD’S HOLIDAY PURCHASES WILL BE MADE IN
STORES VERSUS ONLINE THIS YEAR?
All in stores Over 75% in stores
Over 50% in stores
Over 50% online
Over 75% online
All online
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0
32%
27%
19%
9%7% 6%
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 10
BUT MANY SHOPPERS WILL MAKE AT LEAST SOME HOLIDAY PURCHASES USING MOBILE DEVICES
Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) will make purchases with mobile devices this season, driven heavily by younger Americans.
MANY AMERICANS THINK RELIGION HAS BEEN OVERLY SCRUBBED FROM HOLIDAY MARKETING
While a slim majority (53%) think holiday marketing does a good job capturing the spirit of the holidays, 47% disagree and many of those Americans think religious icons and messages are the missing element.
*DO YOU THINK HOLIDAY MARKETING DOES A GOOD JOB AT CAPTURING THE SPIRIT OF THE HOLIDAYS?
Yes No
53%
47%
Do Not Attend Services Weekly
49%51%
Attend Services Weekly
61%
39%
DO YOU PLAN TO MAKE ANY PURCHASES WITH A MOBILE DEVICE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?
Yes No
39%
61%
Ages 18-4446%
54%
Ages 45+
33%
67%
AllRespondents
AllRespondents
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 11
EVEN LESS RELIGIOUS AMERICANS THINK THAT HOLIDAY MARKETING HAS BEEN OVERLY SANITIZED43% of Americans, including 40% of Americans who do not attend weekly religious services, think holiday marketing has too few religious elements compared to only 17% who say there are too many religious elements. Another 40% think there are just the right amount of religious elements.
*DO YOU THINK HOLIDAY MARKETING HAS TOO MANY, TOO FEW OR ABOUT THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF RELIGIOUS ELEMENTS?
Too Many About the Right Amount Too Few
Do Not Attend Services Weekly
Attend Services Weekly
49%40%43%
17% 16% 17%
43%35%40%
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT STORES BEING OPEN ON THANKSGIVING?
All 18-44 45+
Unfair to workers
Convenient for consumers
Ruins the holiday spirit
Greedy for corporation
American capitalist way
0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
SHOULD STORES BE OPEN ON THANKSGIVING? NO CLEAR ANSWER FROM SHOPPERS36% of Americans say having stores open on Thanksgiving is unfair to workers, while 32% say it’s convenient for consumers. Older Americans show greater concern for workers than younger Americans.
5%
8%
16%
30%
42%29%
34%
12%
12%
12%
36%
32%
10%
8%
14%
AllRespondents
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 12
RECOMMENDATIONS
DON’T OVER-SANITIZE HOLIDAY MARKETING:
With a goal of capturing broad audiences, many brands tend to play it safe and stray away from
religious symbols in their holiday marketing. However, many Americans (43%) feel that holiday
marketing is too watered down and they would like to see more religious symbols. In fact, only 17%
feel that there’s too much emphasis on religion in holiday marketing currently. Brands can benefit
by taking a few more risks with religious signage this holiday season, as most consumers are very
receptive to it.
CYBER MONDAY WARRANTS AS MUCH ATTENTION AS BLACK FRIDAY:
Black Friday has been the marquee holiday shopping event for many years, but this year, Cyber
Monday is expected to be just as big. 40% of Americans say they will shop online on Cyber Monday,
compared with 39% who say they will shop on Black Friday. Brands should look to leverage flash deals
and promotions to get consumers shopping online on Cyber Monday.
MOBILE RESPONSIVE CONTENT IS CRITICAL:
With the broad increase in mobile usage over the past few years, mobile optimized marketing is more
important than ever. This year, nearly half (4 in 10) of Americans will make at least some of their
holiday purchases with their mobile devices. Therefore, it is imperative for marketers to ensure that
their websites and holiday ads are mobile optimized.
CONNECT THE DOTS BETWEEN ONLINE AND OFFLINE CHANNELS:
One of the challenges faced by many marketers is understanding which channels best impact
consumers’ purchase decisions. Online marketing certainly drives purchase intent but is difficult
to properly attribute as the vast majority of purchases are completed in-store. Marketers need to
establish consistent processes for measuring the impact of these channels and allocate adequate
resources to drive optimal results this holiday season.
Holiday Shopping Report 2016 | Page 13
ABOUT FLUENTFluent, LLC, a cogint company (Nasdaq: COGT), is an industry leader in people-based digital marketing and customer acquisition, serving over 500 leading consumer brands and direct marketers. Leveraging a massive reservoir of proprietary audience data, as well as millions of real-time survey interactions with consumers every day, Fluent enables advertisers to more effectively target and acquire their most valuable customers, with precision, at a massive scale. The company is headquartered in New York City. For more information visit www.fluentco.com.
fluentco.com I [email protected] I 646.647.2966
The data featured in this report is from two surveys conducted online within the United States by Fluent, LLC. One survey was conducted on September 29, 2016 among 1,993 American adults aged 18 and up (margin of error +/-2.2%). The other survey was conducted on September 30, 2016 among 1,666 American adults (margin of error +/-2.4%). Respondents were randomly selected. Questions from the second survey include a * before the question text.
METHODOLOGY
