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What’s Wrong With the Election System?
David KimballUniversity of Missouri-St. Louis
December 5, 2002
Outline
• Impetus for an examination of voting methods in the United States
• Research findings• Recommendations for election reforms
and issues for future elections
2000 Presidential Election:“A Perfect Storm”
• Florida Official Results• George W. Bush – 2,912,790 votes• Al Gore – 2,912,253 votes• Bush wins Florida by 537 votes.• Approximately 180,000 ballots in Florida
failed to record a vote for president (roughly 3% of ballots cast).
• Nationally, about 2 million unrecorded votes in the presidential election of 2000.
How Can You Fail to Cast a Vote?
• Overvote: Selecting too many candidates
• Undervote: Not selecting any candidates
NORC/Media Consortium Review of Florida Ballots
• Most unrecorded votes in Florida were overvotes (68%).
• Half of the undervotes in Florida were failed attempts to vote for a single candidate.
• Half of the undervotes Florida were “genuine” (blank).
• Almost 25,000 of the unrecorded votes in Florida could have been counted.
What’s Happened Since Florida?
• Each state and county has asked “Could Florida happen here?”
• Federal legislation – the Help America Vote Act of 2002
• State legislation – Missouri included• Research to examine the correlates of
unrecorded votes and find out what works and what does not.
Research on Unrecorded Votes
• Examined election returns from counties in 2000
• Examined precinct returns in Florida and Illinois
• Primarily a cross-sectional analysis• Other studies, including multiple
elections (Caltech/MIT Voting Project, groups at Maryland, Berkeley, Harvard)
Factors Examined
• Voting technology• Ballot features and design• Election features• Demographics
– Socio-economic disparity in unrecorded votes.
Local Control of Elections
• Election administration is primarily a matter of local (county) control.
• This creates a lot of variation in voting methods across the country.– Great for researchers– Headaches for election reformers
• Voting technology is a prime example
Voting MethodVotomatic PunchDatavote PunchLeverPaperCentral ScanPrecinct ScanDREMixed
Voting Methods Used in 2000
Voting Technology Results
• Votomatic punch card ballots clearly produce the highest rate of unrecorded votes in contests at the top of the ballot.
• Newer voting technology that allows voters to discover and correct mistakes reduce the number of unrecorded votes, especially in low-income or minority precincts.– DRE– Precinct-count optical scan
Unrecorded Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election by Voting Equipment
Voting Technology Unrecorded Votes
Punch Card – Votomatic (28% of ballots)
2.8%
Optical Scan – Central Count (15% of ballots)
1.8%
DRE (11% of ballots) 1.7%
Lever Machine (15% of ballots)
1.6%
Paper Ballot (1% of ballots) 1.6%
Punch Card – Datavote (3% of ballots)
1.2%
Mixed (6% of ballots) 1.1%
Optical Scan – Precinct Count (20% of ballots)
0.9%
Ballot Design
• Ballot design has been largely overlooked as a cause of unrecorded votes.
• Several ballot features are important– Number of columns– Straight-party option– “None of the above” option
Unrecorded Votes in Florida by Ballot Design
Ballot Design
Unrecorded Votes
Overvotes
Undervotes
No Confusing Ballot Presidential candidates listed in 1 column
2.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Confusing Ballot Presidential candidates listed in 2 columns
7.6% 5.9% 1.7%
Percentage of Unrecorded Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election (Counties)
Exp
ecte
d P
erc
en
tag
e o
f U
nre
co
rde
d V
ote
s
Black Percentage of Population
No Straight-Party Punch Straight-Party Punch
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Recommendations
• If cost and staffing is no object, replace punch card voting systems and adopt ballot features that reduce the number of unrecorded votes.
• Switching to new voting technology is costly. Making ballot design improvements is relatively inexpensive.
• Consider uniform voting systems at the state level?
• A potential concern is the growing use of absentee and mail-in voting.