17
Wheat Outlook February 2003
Wheat OutlookFebruary 2003
World Wheat ProductionJuly-June
(million metric tons)USDA FIMAT FIMAT
98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 02-03 03-04
MAJOR EXPORTERS:U.S. 69.3 62.6 60.8 53.3 44.0 44.0 58.8Argentina 13.3 16.4 16.2 15.5 12.5 12.5 15.0Australia 21.5 24.8 23.8 24.0 10.0 10.0 22.0Canada 24.1 26.9 26.5 20.6 15.7 15.7 24.1EU-15 103.1 96.4 104.7 91.2 103.3 103.3 105.0
SUB-TOTAL 231.3 227.0 232.0 204.5 185.5 185.5 224.8
MAJOR IMPORTERS:Brazil 2.2 2.4 1.7 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.3China 109.7 113.9 99.6 93.9 91.0 91.0 93.0E. Europe 33.9 28.2 28.9 34.7 30.8 30.8 32.0North Africa 14.2 11.5 9.9 12.7 11.1 11.1 12.0FSU-15 57.6 66.1 64.8 93.0 98.4 98.4 90.0
SUB-TOTAL 217.6 222.1 204.9 237.5 234.2 234.2 230.3
OTHER FOREIGN:India 66.4 70.8 76.4 68.8 72.0 72.0 69.0Mexico 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2Pakistan 18.7 17.9 21.1 19.0 19.5 19.5 18.5Turkey 18.0 16.5 18.0 15.5 18.5 18.5 18.0Others 34.6 28.7 27.9 30.4 33.8 34.0 32.0
SUB-TOTAL 140.8 136.9 146.8 137.0 146.9 147.2 140.7
GRAND TOTAL 589.7 586.0 583.7 579.0 566.6 566.8 595.8
World Wheat Supply/Demand BalanceJuly-June
(million metric tons)
USDA FIMAT FIMAT1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2002-03 2003-04
Beginning Stocks 195.4 206.1 207.0 205.0 200.1 200.1 172.2Production 589.7 586.0 583.7 579.0 566.6 566.8 595.8
Total Supply 785.1 792.1 790.7 784.0 766.7 766.9 768.0
World Trade 102.0 112.8 103.5 110.0 104.8 104.7 106.0Domestic Consumption 477.0 472.3 482.2 473.9 490.4 490.0 492.6Total Disappearance 579.0 585.1 585.7 583.9 595.2 594.7 598.6
END STOCKS 206.1 207.0 205.0 200.1 171.5 172.2 169.5
Stocks as % of Utilization 35.6 35.4 35.0 34.3 28.8 29.0 28.3
U.S. Stocks, mil bu 946 950 876 777 445 472 607 U.S. Stocks, MMT 25.7 25.8 23.8 21.1 12.1 12.8 16.5 U.S. share of world stocks 12.5% 12.5% 11.6% 10.6% 7.1% 7.5% 9.7%Rest-of-the-World stocks 180.4 181.2 181.1 178.9 159.4 159.4 152.9
Wheat Exports by Origin
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
Crop Year
Perc
enta
ge
Total MajorExportersTurkey
India
Total Black Sea
Others
All Wheat USDA FIMAT FIMAT1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 2003
Planted Acres(million acres) 65.8 62.7 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 63.3
Harvested Acres(million acres) 59.0 53.8 53.1 48.6 46.0 46.0 52.7
% abandoned 10.4 14.2 15.2 18.4 23.8 23.8 16.6
Average yield 43.2 42.7 42.0 40.3 35.1 35.1 40.9
Production(mil. bushels) 2547 2299 2232 1958 1616 1616 2159
Winter Wheat
Planted Acres(million acres) 46.4 43.3 43.4 41.1 41.7 41.7 44.2
Harvested Acres(million acres) 40.1 35.5 35.1 31.3 29.6 29.6 35.0
% abandoned 13.6 18.1 19.2 23.8 29.0 29.0 20.9
Average yield 46.9 47.8 44.7 43.5 38.6 38.6 44.4
Production(mil. bushels) 1881 1697 1566 1361 1143 1143 1553
Other Spring
Planted Acres(million acres) 15.6 15.3 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9
Harvested Acres(million acres) 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.5 13.6 13.6 14.8
% abandoned 2.7 3.8 5.3 6.8 13.4 13.4 6.8
Average yield 34.9 34.1 38.4 35.2 29.5 29.5 34.8
Production(mil. bushels) 528 503 557 512 402 402 515
U.S. All-Acre Yield and Production
U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand BalanceJune-May
(million bushels)USDA FIMAT USDA FIMAT
98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 02-03 03-04 03-04
Planted Acres 65.9 62.7 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 65.0 63.3Harvested Acres 59.2 53.8 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 54.2 52.7% Abandoned 10.1 14.2 15.2 18.4 24.1 24.1 16.6 16.6Yield 43.0 42.7 42.0 40.3 35.3 35.3 40.5 40.9
June 1 Stocks 722 946 950 876 777 777 445 472Production 2547 2299 2232 1958 1616 1616 2195 2159Imports 103 95 90 108 75 75 100 95
TOTAL SUPPLY 3373 3339 3272 2942 2469 2469 2740 2726
Food 907 925 950 928 940 940 935 935Seed 81 92 80 82 84 87 84 84Feed 393 283 304 193 100 75 200 200Exports 1046 1090 1062 961 900 900 900 900
TOTAL USAGE 2427 2390 2396 2164 2024 2002 2119 2119
CARRY - OUT 946 950 876 777 445 472 621 607
Govt StocksFarmer Owned 0 0 0 0 0 0 0TTL CCC Inv. 128 104 97 99 75 75 75Outstanding Loans 140 62 42 82 NA 55 75
Total Govt Stocks 268 166 139 181 NA 130 150 Free Carry-Out 678 784 737 596 NA 342 457
CARRY-OUT / USE 39.0% 39.7% 36.6% 35.9% 22.0% 23.6% 28.6% Wheat Price, on-farm $/bushel 2.65 2.48 2.62 2.78 3.60 3.65 3.00
Chicago July Wheat Daily Chart
KWN3/WN3 Daily Chart
MWN3/KWN3 Daily Chart
Spring growing season factors to watch:
Decline of El Nino pattern increasing moisture to HRW belt - needs to happen within next 4-6 weeks
Moisture development over US spring wheat belt and Canadian prairies
Weather patterns over Black Sea and India
Political conflict and its impact on food donations
Price Projections for Chicago July Wheat
$3.00 to $3.50
