WheatSupply/Demand

and PriceKim Anderson

Agricultural Economicswww.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

Talking Points

• Weather and corn dominate price factor.• Adequate supplies of wheat.• Remaining wheat to be harvested.• Drought and winter wheat crop• Wheat price potential.• June 2013 KCBT and CBT wheat prices.

Top of the NewsTexas feedlots buy HRW wheat from CanadaAug 3 (Reuters) - Texas cattle feedlots purchased 45,000 tonnesof hard red winter wheat from Canada in recent days due totight supplies of feed corn and its record-high prices, UnitedStates and Canadian trade sources said on Friday.In the past two weeks, Canadian exporters sold as many as 500rail cars of wheat for shipment into the No. 1 U.S. cattle state ofTexas, the sources said."Right now, there's a real supply crunch and they're running outof old-crop corn," a Canadian source said. "(Canadian wheat) isavailable."Canadian exporters and farmers now have more freedom tomarket their grain after the Canadian Wheat Board's marketingmonopoly expired on Wednesday, the first day of Canada's2012/13 marketing year.

Oklahoma daily cash wheat price and CBT nearby corn contract price

11/7/2011

11/17/2011

11/27/2011

12/7/2011

12/17/2011

12/27/2011

1/6/2012

1/16/2012

1/26/2012

2/5/2012

2/15/2012

2/25/2012

3/6/2012

3/16/2012

3/26/2012

4/5/2012

4/15/2012

4/25/2012

5/5/2012

5/15/2012

5/25/2012

6/4/2012

6/14/2012

6/24/2012

7/4/2012

7/14/2012

7/24/2012

8/3/2012 $4.75

$5.25

$5.75

$6.25

$6.75

$7.25

$7.75

$8.25

$8.75

$9.25

Jun17% Jul

17%

Aug21%Sep

9%

Oct5%

Nov2%

Dec3%

Jan1%

Mar3%

Apr9%

May13%

World Wheat Production

http://www.gramene.org/species/triticum/wheat_maps_and_stats.html

http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/auswht.gif

http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/argwht.gif

Wheat and Corn S & D NumbersU.S. Production

Million Bu.U.S. Ending Stocks

Million Bu.Stocks-to-Use Ratio

PercentageKCBT/CBT Dec $

$/Bu.

Wheat Corn Wheat Corn Wheat Corn Wheat Corn

February 2,165 14,270 957 1,616 44.0 12.0 $ 7.35 $ 5.58

May 2,245 14,790 735 1,881 30.7 13.7 $ 7.23 $ 5.37

June 2,234 14,790 694 1,881 29.1 13.7 $ 7.38 $ 5.16

July 2,224 12,970 664 1,183 27.4 9.3 $ 9.11 $ 7.84

August 2.268 10,779 698 650 28.6 5.8

World Production World Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

Wheat Corn Wheat Corn Wheat Corn

May 24,896 37,235 6,912 5,997 27.4 16.5

June 24,693 37,399 6,825 6,131 27.2 16.9

July 24,446 35,639 6,703 5,279 26.8 14.9

August 24.354 33.424 6,560 4,855 25.9 14.3

http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/usahrw.gif

August, September, OctoberTemperature

November, December, JanuaryTemperature

August, September, OctoberPrecipitation

November, December, JanuaryPrecipitation

KCBT Dec ’12: Daily

KCBT Weekly Nearest

CBT Weekly Nearest

December 1 and June 20 prices

• December 1: $8.00 to $10.00

• June 20, 2013: $7.50