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WHEN ORGANIZATION EMBRACED
UNCERTAINTY
David M. Hamby, Oregon State University
UNC Chapel HillSeptember 1984 – January 1989
Dedicated to Dr. James E. Watson, Jr
1970 UNC PhD UNC Prof 27 yrs Several teaching awards HPS President 1985-86 24 yrs on NCs Radiation
Protection Commission North Carolina Order of
the Long Leaf Pine award
More Memories
It’s Changed in 20 Years!
1989: Time to Get a Real Job!
microDOSIMETRY =environmental DOSIMETRY
Life’s Path
1989
1994
1999
A Future of Uncertainty
What stack height can we tolerate? What happens if the deterministic
assumptions change? What difference does it make? If a particular parameter varies, how is
the result impacted? Which parameter(s) control the result?
Uncertainty of:
Atm tritium dose Food consumption
parameters Sensitivity analyses Aqueous tritium dose Parameters in
aqueous models Meteorological data
summaries Environmental
dosimetry
Iodine and trituim DCFs
Gaussian model ICRP 66 inhalation
model Env movement of
137Cs Particulate
deposition in the lung
ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors
Uncertainty in decision-making
General Method
Obtain mathematical model Characterize input parameters Execute thousands of model iterations Determine sensitive parameters Evaluate uncertainty of model output
Probabilistic Dose Estimation
Near the Dose Limit?
An Alternative View
The Complimentary View
Multiple Probabilistic Analyses
Uncertainty Presentation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
Wind speed (kts) midpoint0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Fre
quen
cy
WHEN ORGANIZATION EMBRACED
UNCERTAINTY
A good piece of work.
Congratulations.- Jim
Jim Watson Southern
gentleman Distinguished Soft spoken No nonsense Systematic Practical Mentor Friend
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will
forgetwhat you did, but people will never forget how you made
them feel.”- Maya Angelo