Where can the West Midlands economy go?

Mike HaynesProfessor of International Political Economy

The Recent Past: Restructuring or Distorting the UK Economy?

Coalition Fairytales? – How the Sun viewed the situation in Spring 2011

UK’ s actual performance is very poor - last three quarters to summer 2011

A Tale of Two Great Depressions in UKGDP Index by Quarter 1930s and 2008 to date

85

90

95

100

105

110

1930s

Currentdepression

Looking More Nasty?

The West Midlands and the Black Country

Impressive Past?

Heritage Trail Future?

A Low Value added Region?

Uncertain Futures

Issues ‘Structural Vulnerability’, ‘Long term structural decline’

1. Falling relative GVA since 1975 compared to national average

2. Unemployment3. Missing high growth firms4. Skills gaps5. Deprivation6. Environment

(a) What needs to be done and who can deliver? (b) Is less more or even less?(c) Will more of the same work?

i54 Good news thanks to Tata but ‘a Car Plant does not one summer

make’

Thank you

• This presentation is available online at http://www.wlv.ac.uk/uwbs80years