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WHERE IS MONETARY POLICY GOING ? GLOBAL OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS CONFERENCE JACQUES DE LAROSIÈRE Paris, 21st June, 2018
WHERE IS MONETARY POLICY GOING ? GLOBAL OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS CONFERENCE
JACQUES DE LAROSIÈRE Paris, 21st June, 2018
2
Source: Central Banks, Thomson Reuters
1 CENTRAL BANK REAL POLICY RATE, % (DEFLATED WITH CORE INFLATION)
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5
ECB, repo rate FED, target Fed Funds BOJ, overnight call rate
3
Source: OECD, May 2018
2 OUTPUT GAP, %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-6-5-4-3-2-101234
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
Euro zone US Japan
4
Source: Central Banks
3 CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATE, %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
ECB, repo rate FED, target Fed Funds BOJ, overnight call rate
5
Source: Central Banks, Thomson Reuters
4 CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET, AS % OF GDP
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
0102030405060708090
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ECB FED BOJ
6
Source: Eurostat, BEA, Cabinet Office
5 REAL GDP GROWTH, Y/Y %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6EZ19 US Japan
7
Source: CaixaBank, Monthly Report MR04, April 2018
6 FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL LOOSER, IN SPITE OF US TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
8
Source: Central Banks
7 CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATE, %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
ECB, repo rate FED, target Fed Funds BOJ, overnight call rate
9
Source: Central Banks, Thomson Reuters
8 CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET, AS % OF GDP
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
0102030405060708090
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ECB FED BOJ
10
Source: Eurostat, BLS, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Thomson Reuters
9 CORE INFLATION RATE (CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EXCL. FOOD & ENERGY, Y/Y %)
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-80-60-40-20020406080100120
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Euro zone US Japan Brent oil price, y/y % (RHS)
Core inflation rate has remained remarkably stable over the last 13 years
11
Source: Eurostat, BLS, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Thomson Reuters
10 HEADLINE INFLATION RATE (CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, Y/Y %)
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Euro zone US Japan Brent oil price, y/y % (RHS)
12
10b GROWTH IN THE EURO AREA HAS PICKED UP SINCE 2014
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.5
0.30.3
0.4
0.2
0.40.5
0.8
0.3
0.50.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.60.60.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
13
Source: Central Banks, Thomson Reuters
11 CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET, AS % OF GDP
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
0102030405060708090
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ECB FED BOJ
14
Source: ECB
12 BANK LENDING RATES TO NONFINANCIAL CORPORATES, 1-5 YEARS MATURITY, %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain
15
Source: Bloomberg
12b A SIGNIFICANT PART OF SOVEREIGN YIELDS IS STILL NEGATIVE IN NOMINAL TERMS
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
Suisse Japon Allemagne France Espagne Italie Etats-‐Unis
1Y -‐0,80 -‐0,13 -‐0,64 -‐0,58 -‐0,37 0,52 2,31
2Y -‐0,74 -‐0,13 -‐0,59 -‐0,49 -‐0,16 1,00 2,53
3Y -‐0,64 -‐0,11 -‐0,49 -‐0,34 -‐0,01 1,32 2,67
4Y -‐0,51 -‐0,10 -‐0,33 -‐0,15 0,23 1,69 2,79
5Y -‐0,43 -‐0,10 -‐0,14 0,02 0,51 1,98 2,81
6Y -‐0,28 -‐0,07 -‐0,02 0,29 0,68 2,28 2,91
7Y -‐0,17 -‐0,04 0,11 0,45 0,88 2,47 2,91
8Y -‐0,10 -‐0,02 0,24 0,61 1,12 2,62 2,99
9Y -‐0,014 0,02 0,37 0,71 1,30 2,77 3,02
10Y 0,064 0,05 0,49 0,88 1,44 2,86 2,96
15Y 0,374 0,26 0,64 1,26 1,98 3,19 3,11
20Y 0,523 0,53 0,91 1,37 1,98 3,38 3,12
30Y 0,629 0,73 1,18 1,73 2,58 3,59 3,10
16
Source: OECD, May 2018
13 OUTPUT GAP, %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-6-5-4-3-2-101234
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
Euro zone US Japan
17
Source: World Bank
14 LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATE, % (15 TO 64 YEARS OLD)
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Euro zone Japan US
18
Source: Eurostat, BLS, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
15 UNEMPLOYMENT IS RECEDING IN THE EURO AREA, BUT REMAINS HIGH NOTABLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTRIES
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
23456789
10111213
Euro zone US Japan
19
Source: Eurostat, BLS, Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare
16 NOMINAL WAGES GROWTH, Y/Y %
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-2
0
2
4
6Euro zone, wages & salariesUS, average hourly earnings, total privateJapan, scheduled cash earnings, all industries
20
17 THE HETEROGENEITY IN CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES IS STRICKING: GERMANY +8%, FRANCE -2%
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e 18f
GR IT PT IR
EZ FR DE ES
GER
EZIR
PTGR
FR
SPIT
21
18 FISCAL POSITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN PERIPHERAL COUNTRIES
| 21/06/2018 | Global Official Institutions Conference
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f
GR IT PT IR
EZ FR ES
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