Polling Question 1:Which of the following options is the most realistic for overcoming near-term
revenue shortfalls in the state’s budget?
1.
Privatization
2.
Tax hikes
3.
Bonds
4.
Reducing government spending
5.
Combination of all the above
Polling Question 2:What long-term
strategy should be proposed to improve the budgetary situation in California?
1.
Two-year budget
2.
Reduce the budget vote requirement
3.
Rainy-day fund
4.
New, broader and higher tax structure
5.
Combination of 1, 2 and 3
General Fund revenues and expenditures
California, FY 1993-1994 to 2009-2010
Source:
California Department of Finance.
200920072005200320011999199719951993
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
US$ billions
General Fund revenues and transfersGeneral Fund expenditures
Percent change in revenues and expenditures
General Fund, California, FY 1993-1994 to 2009-2010
Source: California Department of Finance.
200920072005200320011999199719951993
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Percent change from preceding year
General Fund revenues and transfersGeneral Fund expenditures
Revenues and transfers in FY 2009-2010 California, enacted budget, US$ millions
Source: California Department of Finance.
General Fund
Special Fund Total
Personal income tax 48,868 706 49,574Sales tax 27,609 4,519 32,128Corporation tax 8,799 - 8,799Highway users tax - 3,145 3,145Motor vehicle fees 1,682 5,593 7,275Insurance tax 1,913 - 1,913Liquor tax 332 - 332Tobacco tax 102 835 937Other 236 8,625 8,861Total 89,541 23,423 112,964
Total spending in FY 2009-2010 California, enacted budget, US$ millions
Source: California Department of Finance.
General Special BondLegislative, judicial, executive 1,884 2,529 187 4,600State and consumer services 569 708 19 1,296Business, transportation and housing 2,585 5,755 4,206 12,546Resources 1,842 2,061 1,584 5,487Environmental protection 73 1,197 514 1,784Health and human services 24,953 7,665 208 32,826Corrections and rehabilitation 8,210 22 2 8,234K-12 education 35,042 106 505 35,653Higher education 10,547 47 1,612 12,206Labor and workforce development 64 369 - 433General government -1,186 4,664 702 4,180Total 84,583 25,123 9,539 119,245
Type of fundsTotalCategories
General Fund budget gap*
California, FY 1997-1998 to 2009-2010
Source: California Department of Finance.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
1997
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
US$ billions
* Operating deficits/surpluses including/after.
Primary expenditures in FY 2009-2010 California, enacted budget
Source: California Department of Finance.
Corrections and
rehabilitation6.0%
Higher education
9.0%
Health and human
services26.0%
Other20.0%
Business, transportation and housing
10.0%
K-12 education29.0%
Revenue sources in 2009-2010 budget
California, enacted budget
Source: California Department of Finance.
Corporation tax8.0%
Other8.0%
Sales tax28.0%
Highway users tax
3.0%Motor vehicle
fees6.0%
Insurance tax2.0%
Tobacco tax1.0%
Personal income tax
44.0%
Primary General Fund expenditures
California, FY 1998-1999 to 2009-2010
Source: California Department of Finance.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
45
40
35
30
25
20
Percent
K-12 educationHealth and human services
Spending on health and human services
California, general fund, FY 1998-1999 to 2009-2010
Source: California Department of Finance.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
US$ billions
Spending on K-12 education
California, General Fund, FY 1998-1999 to 2009-2010
Source: California Department of Finance.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
45
40
35
30
25
20
US$ billions
Proposition 98 funding in 2009-2010 California, enacted budget, US$ millions
Source: California Legislative Analysts’s
Office.
Expenditures 54,904 K-12 48,315 Community colleges 6,482 Other 107Revenue 54,903 General Fund 39,461 Local property tax 15,442
Highest state-local tax per capita states
2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Tax revenue Tax per capita(US$ billions) (US$)
1 Alaska 5 7,2682 New York 134 6,8983 Wyoming 3 6,2054 Connecticut 21 6,0445 New Jersey 51 5,9446 Hawaii 7 5,1397 Massachusetts 32 4,9668 Maryland 27 4,8179 California 173 4,75410 Vermont 3 4,714
Rank State
State-local tax burden California vs. U.S. average
Source: Tax Foundation.
0806040200989694929088868482
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
Percent
CaliforniaUnited States
State-local taxes As percent of per capita income, 2008
Source: Tax Foundation.
Rank State Percent1 New Jersey 11.82 New York 11.73 Connecticut 11.14 Maryland 10.85 Hawaii 10.66 California 10.57 Ohio 10.48 Vermont 10.39 District of Columbia 10.3
10 Wisconsin 10.211 Rhode Island 10.2
U.S. average 9.7
ARRA funds for California Top 10 agencies awarding funds, US$ billions, 2008
Source: Recovery.gov.
Agency Announced
Made available
Paid out
Department of Education 9.9 6.7 4.9Department of Health and Human Services 5.0 5.5 3.6Department of Transportation 3.7 3.0 0.2Social Security Administration 1.3 0.0 0.0Department of Energy 1.2 0.3 0.0Department of Defense 1.1 0.0 0.0Department of Housing and Urban 1.1 0.8 0.2Department of Labor 0.7 1.8 2.6Environmental Protection Agency 0.5 0.5 0.0Department of Justice 0.5 0.5 0.1Total 26.1 19.8 12.0
Capital gains and stock options value
California, FY 1999-2000 to 2009-2010*
Source: California Department of Finance, California Legislative
Analysts’
Office, Milken Institute.*FY07-08 preliminary, FY08-09, FY09-10 estimated.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
1999
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
US$ billions
Capital gains and stock option revenue
California, FY 1999-2000 to 2009-2010*
Source: California Department of Finance, California Legislative
Analysts’
Office, Milken Institute.*FY07-08 preliminary, FY08-09, FY09-10 estimated. An assumed tax rateof 9% was used to calculate the tax revenue.
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
1999
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
US$ billions
•
A bipartisan group of citizens from every walk of life who have come together to reclaim our power and make our government work again.
•
Our goal is fundamental change: government that's small enough to listen, big enough to tackle real problems, smart enough to spend our money wisely in good times and bad, and honest enough to be held accountable for results.
California Forward
Source: California Forward.
The California Forward 2010 reform plan Responsible budgets on time
•
Pay-as-you-go-
Require that new programs identify a funding source for any new spending they require.
•
Base budgets on results-
Require the Governor and lawmakers to set clear goals for programs, consider results and effectiveness when making budget decisions, oversee performance to improve efficiency, and consider eliminating outdated and duplicative programs.
•
Two-year budget -
Require the Governor and Legislature to craft two-year budgets with midcourse correction authority, and provide long-term revenue forecasts and capital investment plans.
Source:
California Forward.
The California Forward 2010 reform plan Responsible budgets on time (continued)
•
One-time use of one-time revenues -
Reduce future budget shortfalls by prohibiting the use of unexpected spikes in revenues to increase spending on programs that continue year after year.
•
Reduce the budget vote requirement-
Reduce the likelihood of budget stalemates by changing the legislative vote requirement for state budget approval to a simple majority (to be adopted in conjunction with the plan’s other fiscal reforms, and while retaining the two-thirds majority vote requirement for tax increases).
•
Provide Certainty Regarding Passage of Fees-
Clarify the circumstances in which the Legislature and the Governor can impose fees without a two-thirds majority vote to those areas with a clear and justifiable
nexus to the service provided.
Source: California Forward.
The California Forward 2010 reform plan Government that’s closer to the people
•
Protect local revenue-
Give communities more control over community-related services and prevent the state from siphoning off local revenue by giving local governments legal ownership of specific funds for community services, including the property tax.
•
Foster and fund long-term collaboration-
Encourage community-level governments to coordinate and consolidate programs when it
makes sense. -
Allow cities, counties and school districts that craft long-term flexible plans to address community needs, to seek majority-vote approval to provide funds to pay for them, while retaining the vote thresholds established under Proposition 218.
Source: California Forward.
The California Forward 2010 reform plan Constituent access and accountability
•
Term limit reform-
Reducing the total time newly-elected state legislators are allowed to serve from 14 years to 12 years, regardless of whether the time is spent in the Assembly or Senate.
•
Constituent access and accountability-
Requiring legislators to spend part of every year in their district, in consultation with constituents and local leaders.
Source: California Forward.
Development of the $60 Billion Budget Gap
(Dollars in Billions)
Impact of Recession on Revenue Trend
How We Solved California’s $60 Billion Budget Problem
Major Cuts Enacted to Address the Budget Crisis of 2009
(Dollars in Millions)
The Budget Brings Spending Back In Line with Population and Inflation
Where Have We Been, Where Are We Going?
The Economy
Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?
The Budget
Why the Deficit Returns
(Dollars in Billions)
Major General Fund Expenditures
Forecast for 2012-13
Proposition 98
General Fund
Proposition 98
General Fund
Corrections
General Fund
Corrections
General Fund
Medi-Cal
General Fund
Medi-Cal
General Fund
SSI/SSP and CalWORKs
SSI/SSP and CalWORKs
IHSS and DDS
General Fund
IHSS and DDS
General Fund
Judiciary
General Fund
Judiciary
General Fund
Debt Service
General Fund
Debt Service
General Fund
Higher Education
General Fund
Higher Education
General Fund