Page 1Brian Klepper, PhD
Why Health Care Will Change
January 2013
Brian Klepper
How Health Care’s Cost Crisis
And The Drive Toward A Health Care Market
Will Change Everything
Did health care think it could hold back market forces forever?
Page 2Brian Klepper, PhD
Pithy Observations
“How many businesses do you know that want to cut their revenue in half? That’s why the healthcare system won’t change the healthcare system.”
Rick ScottGovernor of Florida
Former CEO, Hospital Corporation of America (HCA)Quoted by Vinod Khosla at the Rock Health Innovation Summit in August (video here)
“When an employer sits down with his health care relations – the broker, health plan, doctor, hospital, drug and device company – everyone in the room wants it to cost more except for him, and they’re all positioned to make that happen.”
Lynn JenningsCEO, WeCare TLC Onsite Clinics
Orlando
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Business’ Perspective
Oct 2012 Adecco Employee Benefits Survey• 55% of 501 Senior Execs Across Business Sectors Say
Health Benefits Are Biggest Current Business Challenge.
• Up from 35% in 2007.
• Most reported lower profits in past year. Most expect no profit growth in coming year.
• Small business leaders more optimistic than large
• Respondents Were 75% Republicans
• Most Believe Reform Law Will Raise Cost.
Page 4Brian Klepper, PhD
Specialty Condition Low Average HighFP
Otitis media $46 $109 (+137%) $412 (+796%)
Bronchitis $89 $150 (+69%) $771 (+766%)
IM
UTI $81 $140 (+73%) $778 (+860%)
Angina $86 $297 (+245%) $743 (+764%)
Cardiology
Angina $241 $611 (+154%) $1389 (+476%)
Orthopedics
Knee surg. $2,727 $4,473 (+64%) $9,383 (+244%)
Source: Jerry Reeves MD, Culinary Fund Heatlh Plan, 2005
Opportunity: Cost/Quality PerformanceOf Vegas Physicians
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Opportunity: Hospitals’ Dilemma
• Procedural Volumes Are Down
• $30 billion/year Medicare cuts for the next decade
• Commercial Health Plans Will Squeeze Too
• Medicare’s Financial Penalties For Too Many Readmits
Challenge: Maintain/Grow Revenue & Margin
Solution: Grow Market Share
Requirement: Prove Better Care at Lower Cost
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Opportunity: Advanced Images• Lafayette, IN
• Clients Were Paying $1,750-$3,200 for MRIs
• 18K Covered Lives
• WeCare TLC Developed Volume-Based Contract @ $450/Each
• More than 100 images/month
• This is Doable in Many Areas: e.g., Amb Surgery, Pain Mgmt
• Question: Why Aren’t Health Plans Doing This?!
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US Health Care’s Quality is Sketchy & Its Value Is Lowest In Industrialized World
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Avg Annual Health Insurance Premiums and Worker Contributions for Family Coverage, 2008-2012
Page 9Brian Klepper, PhD
Growth in Health Insurance Premiums, Workers’ Contributionsto Premiums, Inflation, and Workers’ Earnings, 1999-2011
Source: Kaiser/HRET Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, 1999-2011. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, U.S. City Average of Annual Inflation (April to April), 1999-2011; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Data from the Current Employment Statistics Survey, 1999-2011 (April to April).
Premium has grown 4x inflation for more than a decade.
Page 10Brian Klepper, PhD
11/11/11 – Gallup/Healthways Survey of 90,000 American Adults
5% Drop in Employer Coverage in 3 Years
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Projected Annual Total Household Compensation & Compensation Net of Health insurance Premiums
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The Work Time-Price of Health Care Has Exploded
Chris Conover on the Forbes Pharma/Healthcare Blog, 12/22/12
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American Health Care Cost Is Absorbing Nearly ALL Economic Growth
Source: Auerbach DI and Kellermann AL, “A Decade of Health Care Cost Growth Has Wiped Out Real Income Gains for an Average U.S. Family,” Health Affairs, 30:9, 9/2011.
In the decade preceding 2009, 79% of all household income growth was siphoned off by health care.
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If health care costs tracked general inflation over the past 15 years, average family income would have been $8,410 (13.9%) higher in 2010 than it was. ($68, 805 vs. 60,395)
Young and Devoe Family Medicine, Oct 2012
Impact on Family Income
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Health Care’s Growing Burden on Federal Budget Crowds Out Other Needs
Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors
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Health Care Has Thrived During the Recession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cited 12/07/12 on WashPost WonkBlog
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HC Jobs Have Grown, but Productivity Declined
Source: R. Kocher & N. Sahni, Rethinking Health Care Labor, NEJM, 10/19/11,
Page 18Brian Klepper, PhD
Source: International Federation of Health Plans, Cited in NYTimes, 1/22/12
US Health Care Unit Pricing Is Much Higher
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And Lucrative Pricing Drives Higher Utilization
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And Lucrative Pricing Drives Higher Utilization
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Unnecessary/Inappropriate Care & Cost
“Our research found that wasteful spending in the health system has been calculated at up to $1.2 trillion of the $2.2 trillion (54.5%) spent in the United States.
[R]edundant, inappropriate or unnecessary tests and procedures [were] identified as the biggest area of excess, followed by inefficient healthcare administration and the cost of care necessitated by conditions such as obesity, which can be considered preventable by lifestyle changes.”
The Price of ExcessPricewaterhouseCoopers, 2008
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Barriers To Health Care Quality/Value
• Regulatory Capture
• Fee-For-Service Reimbursement
• Lack of Pricing/Quality/Safety Transparency
• Compromise of Primary Care
Page 23Brian Klepper, PhD
Regulatory Capture (Lobbying For The Special Interest)
• In 2009 (during the reform proceedings), health care organizations spent $1.2 billion to lobby Congress.*
• 4,525 lobbyists participated: 8 for every member of Congress.*
In other words, policy is developed to favor the special rather than the public interest.
*Sources: Open Secrets, The Center for Responsive PoliticsEight Healthcare Lobbyists for Every Member of Congress, Fierce Healthcare,
2/25/10.
Page 24Brian Klepper, PhD
AMA Relative Value Scale Update Committee (RUC)
• 31 physicians - 26 specialists & 5 PCPs
• CMS’ sole advisors on medical services valuation
• Secret proceedings, sham survey methods, composition unrepresentative of physicians in market, financially conflicted
• CMS has historically accepted 90% of recommendations
• Commercial health plans typically follow Medicare’s payment lead
Page 25Brian Klepper, PhD
Real World Impacts of RUC Influence
1. Over-values specialty services while under-valuing PC
2. Inhibits PC’s moderating influence and accountability function over specialty services.
3. Creates systemic incentives to perform more services, and more expensive services. (Specialists “practicing to the codes.”)
4. Payment disparities between PC and specialties. Crisis-level PC shortage now.
Page 26Brian Klepper, PhD
FFS Reimbursement
Fee-For-Service fosters “Merchant Medicine.”
Every product/service produces a margin,
creating incentives to provide more care
and more expensive care, independent of quality.
Page 27Brian Klepper, PhD
FFS Reimbursement - Procedural Volumes
• Lucrative procedures encourage specialists To “practice to the codes.”
• Physicians who own advanced imaging order up to 6x more than those who don’t
• Stents are no more effective than “optimal drug therapy” and lifestyle changes, and they introduce significant risk/cost. Medicare spends $1.6 billion annually on drug-eluting stents.
• Endless examples.
Page 28Brian Klepper, PhD
Cost/Quality Performance Transparency• Medicare physician data is locked.
• Hospital procedure base fees are often unknown until billing. Recent Health Affairs California appendectomy study showed 3 day LOS pricing $1,529 - $186,955, a 122x difference.
• Health care markets don’t work except for the most aggressive commercial enterprises.
• Providers/Vendors under little external pressure to improve.
Page 29Brian Klepper, PhD
Increasing Primary Care Referrals To Specialists
• Typical 2012 Established Primary Care Office Visit Duration = 7.5-12 Min. 30 Years Ago, It Was 20-25
• PCPs Paid By Visit, So May Refer Time-consuming Problems
• Most Specialists Profit From Procedures
• Result: Huge Increases In Specialty Visits, Outpt Diagnostics, Procedures
Page 30Brian Klepper, PhD
Primary Care - Specialty Payment Disparities
Compare Primary Care Office Visit (99214) and Cataract Extraction with Intra-Ocular Lens Implant
• 99214 – 25 Minutes and 3 Different Problems. Could be anything. Palette is all medical knowledge. Medicare pays $111.36
• Cataract Extraction & Intra-Ocular Lens Implant – 15 minutes. Restores sight! 50 year old, low risk, repetitive procedure. Medicare pays $836.36.
• Hourly rate of Ophthalmologist pay is 12.5x PCP pay.
• PCP’s job is arguably more complex/challenging.
Klepper & Kibbe, Rethinking the Value of Medical Services, Health Affairs Blog, 8/1/11.
Page 31Brian Klepper, PhD
Winners & Losers
• Winners• Nearly Everyone in the Health Industry
(Except Primary Care)
• Losers• Patients – Unnecessary Care and Risk of Harm
• Purchasers (Employers, Taxpayers, Individuals) – Immense Unnecessary Cost
• Primary Care Physicians
Page 32Brian Klepper, PhD
1. Health Care’s Excesses Threaten The Stability Of The Larger US Economy.
2. Policy Formulation Has Been “Captured” By The Health Care Industry, So The Greatest Promise For Change Lies In Market-based Reforms.
Inescapable Conclusions
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Market-Based
Approaches
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The Inflection Point
Convergence:
• Policy Paralysis
• Overwhelming Cost
• Excess Capacity Attacking Waste Becomes A Powerful Market
Opportunity
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Market-Based Reforms
Over the past 20 years, employers (& health plans) have:
• Significantly increased co-pays for “steerage.”• Introduced generic drugs and mail-order.• Introduced wellness, disease mgmt, lifestyle
coaching programs • Introduced incentives• Renegotiated network discounts.• Given employees “more skin in the game.”
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Market-Based Reforms
But we mostly haven’t managed the care process,
like businesses would.
Page 37Brian Klepper, PhD
Market-Based Approaches That Work
• Collaborative Benefits Management• Paying To Manage Process• Empowering Primary Care• Large Case Management• Domestic Medical Destinations• Analytics for Risk Identification• Care Gap Analyses
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Market-Based Approaches That Work Large Case Mgmt.
Page 39Brian Klepper, PhD
Market-Based Approaches That Work
• Analytics of Provider Performance• Data Collaboratives• New Technologies (e.g., Minimally Invasive
Procedures, Genomics)• Incentives/Patient Engagement• Direct Volume-Based Purchasing• Rx Step Therapies• Lifestyle Management/Obesity Step Therapies
Page 40Brian Klepper, PhD
The Development of Health Care Markets
Market forces are influencing mainstream health care for the first time in decades.
This means health care vendors will ultimately need to appeal to purchasers on the basis of cost, quality and safety performance.
Page 41Brian Klepper, PhD
Employers Have Been Divided By Health Care
• Employers haven’t meaningfully mobilized to date
• Many employer organizations compromised by health care interest.
• Many employers seem resigned or are fleeing
• Little larger sense of enlightened self-interest
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Acting In All Our Interests
• Health Care Organizations Comprise Almost 1/5 of the US Economy and 1/10 of US Jobs.
• Only One Group is Larger, With the Influence to Overpower Health Care in Policy:
The Non-Health Care Business Community
Page 43Brian Klepper, PhD
What’s Needed To OffsetHealth Care’s Regulatory Capture
A New Effort That Galvanizes/Mobilizes Non-Health Care Business’s Influence
To Be A Counter-WeightTo The Health Care Industry’s
Policy Dominance.
Page 44Brian Klepper, PhD
Brian R. Klepper, PhDis a health care analyst and commentator. He is Chief Development Officer for WeCare TLC, LLC, an onsite primary care clinic and medical management firm based in Longwood, FL, and Managing Principal of Healthcare Performance Inc., a consulting practice based in Atlantic Beach, FL.
An active author and speaker, Dr. Klepper has provided health care commentary to CBS Evening News, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Washington Post. He has published articles on Kaiser Health News, Medscape, Healthleaders, The New England Journal of Medicine, Modern Healthcare, Business Insurance and newspapers nationally.
Brian is a columnist on Business of Medicine and Primary Care for Medscape, the most-read medical site. He is an editor for The Doctor Weighs In, an online professional health care magazine, and a regular contributor to the Health Affairs Blog, Kevin MD, Health Care Policy and Marketplace Review, and other expert health care blogs. With his wife, he also maintains Elaine’s Journey, which details their struggle against primary peritoneal (ovarian) cancer.
Brian serves on the American Academy of Family Physicians’ Primary Care Services Valuation Task Force, and is a reviewer for Health Affairs and The Journal of Ambulatory Care Management. He is an Advisor to the Lundberg Institute, the Patient-Centered Primary Care Collaborative, which advocates for medical homes, and the Center for Value Health Innovation, which helps business identify and implement approaches proven to improve quality while reducing cost.
In January 2011, with David Kibbe MD, he began a campaign, Replace the RUC!, that focuses on the most important driver of inappropriate health care cost. That effort resulted in a lawsuit by six Augusta, GA primary care physicians against the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its longstanding inappropriate relationship with the AMA’s Relative Value Scale Update Committee (RUC).
904.395.5530 (o), 904.343.2921 (c), [email protected]
