Wildfire: A Land Use Constraint in California

Jordan Dowdy December 12th, 2015

California

Context Map

Mexico

Canada

P a c i f i c O c e a n

Source: ArcGIS OnlineJordan Dowdy, 11/9/15 0 500 1,000250 Miles 1 in = 500 miles

California is the most populous state in the nation, and, by many measurements, also the state most threatened by severe wildfires. The Insurance Information Institute lists California as the state with the most households at high or extreme risk for wildfires, with nearly 2,000,000 homes falling un-der that classification. California also holds the record for the most insured losses due to wildfire in any year- more than $1.7 Billion. The forecast for California wildfires also appears to be worsening. T he U.S.G.S. now lists state as being in its fourth consecutive year of extreme drought, and 2014-15 as having been the warmest year ever recorded there. These trends give every reason to believe that wildfires will become even more of a land-use constraint within California in coming decades. This project seeks to explore some of the spatial characteristics of Californias wildfires and wildfire response infrastructure, providing a conceptual and visual jumping-off point for further research into the topic. Then, considering wildfire as a primary land-use constraint, it will analyze land suitability for future urban expansion and development within Los Angeles County.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 80 16040 Miles Jordan Dowdy,11/30/2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau &ArcGIS Online1 in = 80 miles

California Population Density - US Census 2010

LegendPopulation DensityIndividuals per Square Mile

0 - 30

31 - 562

563 - 10029

10030 - 178374

178375 - 3172013

Major Cities

This map displays population density within the state of California based on block data from the 2010 U.S. Census. Density is presented within this map as a functionof the number of individuals per square mile. Population within the state is generally concentrated around major coastal cities, espcially the San Francisco Bay area, LosAngeles, and San Diego. There is a secondary trend towards densification within the Statescentral valley extending roughly Southeast from Sacramento.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 80 16040 Miles

LegendFire Threat Level

1 - Low

2

3

4

5 - Extreme

Major Cities

Jordan Dowdy, 11/30/15Source: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection & ArcGIS Online

1 in = 80 miles

California Fire Threat Levels

This map displays the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protections (Cal Fire) assessment of fire threat levels throughout the state. Within this context, Cal Fire defines fire threat as a com-bined measure of two factors:1) Fire frequency- the likelihood of a given area experiencing wildfire.2) Fire Hazard- the potential behavior of wildfire based on setting, fuel sources, and likely threat to human populations.

Approximately 3,033 sq. miles of California are designated as existing under extreme threat of wild-fire. This area is concentrated in 7 counties in Southern California: Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Orange, and Riverside.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 80 16040 Miles Jordan Dowdy,11/19/2015Source: California Department of Forestryand Fire Protection &ArcGIS online1 in = 80 miles

Density of Wildfire Events in California: 2008-2014

LegendWildfire Density

High

Low

Major Cities

This map provides a generalized visual representation of the density of wildfire events within the state of California between 2008 and 2010. The kernel density symbology utilized does not account for fire size, duration or intensity. Rather, it provides a means of visualizing the frequency of often coincident wildfire events during these years and their distribution throughout the state. This map indicates the relatively high frequncy of wildfire events in Southern California, particularly in and around Los Angeles and San Diego Counties, and is intended to provide a generalized conceptual jumping off point for more in depth and statistically driven analysis of the issue.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 60 12030 Miles

San Diego

Los Angeles

1 in = 60 miles

0 30 6015 Miles

1 in = 30 miles

Legend

Human Caused

Natural or Undetermined Causes

Major Cities

Los Angeles County

San Diego County

Wildfires of at least 10,000 acres (2008-2014)

Jordan Dowdy, 11/29/15Source :California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection & ArcGIS Online

This map displays wildfire events within the state of California between 2008 and 2010 that covered at least 10,000 acres. Los Angeles and San Diego County are highlighted, as they are both major population and development centers while also being prone to extreme wild-fire events. Within these years, Los Angeles and San Diego counties alone experienced 144 seperate wildfire events of this size, which combined to burn more than 1,000,000 acres.

Key Observation: Southern California in the Crosshairs

Not only are the coastal counties of Southern California, especially Los Angeles and San Diego Counties, home to Californias most densely populated urban areas, they are also the regions within the state that are the most threatened by wildfire, had the most frequent wildfire occurrences be-tween 2008 and 2010, and tend towards having a comparatively large number of wildfires of at least 10,000 acres.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 80 16040 Miles Jordan Dowdy,11/19/2015Source: California Department of Forestryand Fire Protection &ArcGIS Online

Legend

Major Cities

State Wildfire Responsibility Area

Federal Wilfire Responsibility Area

Local Wildfire Responsibility Area

Wildfire Responsibility Areas in California

1 in = 80 miles

T his map displays the administrative boundaries of Wildfire Responsibility Areas within California. The State of California is directly responsible for fire response, management, and mitigation within 48,624 square miles, or approximately 30%, of the state. The remaining area is administered by local agencies or the Federal government.

San Diego

Sacramento

Los Angeles

San Francisco

P a c i f i c O c e a n

0 80 16040 Miles Jordan Dowdy,11/19/2015Source: U.S. Forest Service &ArcGIS Online1 in = 80 miles

LegendFire Response Facility

10 mile radius surrounding response facility

Major Cities

Areas Within 10 Miles of Fire Response Centers

San Diego

Los Angeles

Extreme Fire Threat AreasThis map displays the locations of key fire response and administration facilities with-in the state of California. 10 mile radial distances from these facilities are indicat-ed to convey ease and rapidity of localized physical response during wildfire events. As the insert map to the right indicates, there is an observable link between the threat lev-el from wildfire and the distribution of fire response facilities in the state, especially in Southern California. However, more than 85,450 square miles of California, more than 50% of the state, lies more than 10 miles from a fire response facility.

Suitability Analysis: Wildfire and Development in Los Angeles County

Suitability levels for future development and urban expansion within Los Angeles County, Califor nia, are explored as determined by a weighted overlay analyis of four significant land use consider-ations:

1) Wildfire threat levels

2) Projected extent of urban growth

3) Area of Wildfire events between 2008 and 2014

4) Areas considered by the County as in need of conservation due to sensitive and/or valuable eco-logical conditions.

Los Angeles

P a c i f i c O c e a n

Jordan Dowdy,12/3/2015Source: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection & ArcGIS Online0 6 123 Miles

LegendSuitability for Development

1 - High Suitability / Low Risk

2

3

4

5 - Low Suitability / High Risk

Extent of City Limits

Los Angeles

Wildfire was given priority as a constraint for suitability within this analysis, with 60% of the total weight given to it: wildfire threat levels were weighted at 40% consideration, and wildfire history was given 20%. Urban growth projections and ecological conservation areas were both weighted at 20%.

This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary framing of the issue of Wildfire as a land use and development constraint within Los Angeles County. Future, more in depth iterations of this analysis might consider topography and road distribution.

statistics:683,998 acres of LA County determined to be highly suitable for future development.145,721 acres determined to be highly unsuitable.

GIS Data References: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection - http://frap.cdf.ca.gov/data/frapgisda-ta-subset Los Angeles County GIS data portal -http://egis3.lacounty.gov/dataportal/2013/03/29/califor-nia-geoportal/ ArcGIS Online

Significant GIS tools utilized:

Buffer, Clip, Symbolize by graduated color, Creation of fade layer (Editing, drawing poly-gon), Raster to Polygon, Dissolve, Feature to point, Kernel Density, Weighted Overlay, Poly-gon to Raster, Extract by Mask

Data Summary:

Populated Metadata

General Project Methodology

Picture References:

Picture 1 (pages 1,4,11): https://texasagriculture.gov/Home/ProductionAgriculture/TheWater-Source/WildfirePrevention.aspx

Picture 2 (pages 1,5): http://news.yahoo.com/southern-california-wildfire-grows-extensive-ly-145304991.html

Picture 3 (page 2, 12): http://www.climatecen-tral.org/news/warming-huge-wildfire-out-breaks-19521

Picture 4 (page 2, 8): http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/02/09/evacuations-remain-after-wild-fire-chars-california-towns/