Will 2011 be the last Census of its kind in England and Wales?

Roma Chappell, Programme Director Beyond 2011Office for National Statistics, July 2011

Drivers for change

• Change in populationMobile populations / migration

• Increased and complex user demandFrequency, accuracy, depth of information

• Traditional Census challengesNon-response and cost

• New opportunitiesTechnology and data availability

Context

The recommendation of the 2008 TreasurySelect Committee on ‘Counting the Population’:

“We recommend that the Statistics Authority set

strategic objectives to ensure that the data gathered

throughout the UK can be used to produce annual

population statistics that are of a quality that will enable

the 2011 Census to be the last census in the UK where

the population is counted through the collection of

census forms.”

What has happened since then?

• UK Statistics Authority set up Beyond 2011 project

The Spending Review reinforced the need forboth:

• The 2011 Census to go ahead• A programme to look at the feasibility of

alternatives to the traditional Census

Beyond 2011 aims to …

• Develop options to produce Census-type statistics

Meet user needs

Appropriate quality/ fit for purpose

Reduce cost

Public acceptability

Acceptable level of risk

• Population, housing and socio-demographic statistics

• Make recommendations by September 2014

→ Has potential to be transformational

How to collect the data …..

• Administrative data model– Registers and administrative sources

• Continuous data collection– Rolling census / household surveys/ commercial

• Variations on snapshot approaches– Short form Census and other sources

• Hybrid options– Administrative sources with surveys/sources

Benchmark against the traditional Census

International context

Source: United Nations

Enumeration Methods: households, UNECE member states

4

28

5

4

5

3

37

1

3

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

No Census / No Plans

Traditional FieldOperation

Register & SampleSurvey

Register &Questionnaire

Administrative Registers

2011 2001

e.g. Netherlands

e.g. France

Netherlands experience

• Registers and administrative sources - access guaranteed for statistical purposes- must not collect data if data of appropriate quality exists elsewhere- on relevant admin sources boards re: changes

• Overcame public resistance - Unique statistical identifier avoids disclosure of personal details- No “big brother” database - “satellite” system

• Scope and quality of information- Accepted loss in “breadth and quality”- Assessment system on quality of administrative sources- Web data collection system

• Report on international approaches (Summer 2011)• Great interest internationally in UK situation

Recent progress

• Taken the 2011 Census

• Data extracts taken at or close to Census Day

• National Address Gazetteer established

• Progressing Access to Key Administrative Data

• Analysis of Administrative Data Sources

• Conducting “Small Scale” Commercial Data Pilot

• Learning from Experts- Netherlands, Academic & Commercial Sectors

• Set up formal programme & links to Major Projects Authority

User consultation

• Consult users starting in the autumn with discussion of needs

• Identify prioritieskey legal and policy requirements

• Define scopeBreadth, quality and frequency

The 2011 user need - Case study 1

Local Councils

• Local structure and housing plans• Local economic assessments• Service planning• Denominators for calculating rates• Deprivation analyses and area profiling• Population statistics have been supplied at varying levels of

geography – And with national comparability

• But do these needs continue

The 2011 user need – case study 2

Commercial sector

• Network & investment planning• Size and affluence of population• Worker / resident ratio• Ethnicity, car availability• Very small geographic levels, demand partly met by others

The user need – case study 3

Charities/Other organisations

Carers UK

• Small area Census micro-data sample• Availability and need for carers

• by age, sex and ethnicity

• Policy recommendations• Practical - more responsive services • Needed at small geographic levels

Using administrative data for statistical purposes

Statistical work to test the feasibility of using

aggregate data

Map comparing DWP CustomerInformation System population counts with ONS estimates of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

Map comparing Patient Register population counts with ONS estimates of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

Map comparing DWP CustomerInformation System population counts with Patient Register counts of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

The thinking behind integrating sources

Address Register

Starting point is theAddress Register

+

This has people data matched and linked to it to create a

‘demographic spine’

People in the United Kingdom

DWP/HMRCCustomer Information System

NHSGP Patient Registers

(e.g.) Schools Census

Household Surveys

Broader coverage administrative sources

Narrower coverage administrative sources

Surveys

Coverage Survey(to check coverage and quality)

Commercial Data Sources

Other Data Sources (e.g. locally held data sources)

National Address Gazetteer

• Good relations established with GeoPlace• Building in Census address improvements • Joint work programme being established• Assessing initial version using pilot areas

Issues:• Improvements in quality, initially and over time• Communal establishments• Impetus needs to continue

Sharing of Government Data

• “Collect Once, Use/Reuse many times”

• ONS has access to some Government data for statistical purposes

• Can use powers under the Statistics Act to get access but time consuming for everyone

• Data sharing orders for ONS to access the School Census (Wales) and Customer Information System

Working with partners

• ESRC

Commissioned review of rolling census

Sharing of data for research purposes

Technical expertise and innovative designs

• Data matching, statistical modelling, spatial analyses, quality, disclosure control, public acceptability, stakeholder engagement

• Commercial Sector

Case studies exploring potential for specific data items to meet user needs

Annual Estimates of Household Income - FRS and Experian

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upto 10k 10-15k 15-20k 20-25k 25-30k 30-40k 40-50k 50k+

Income Category

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FRS 2010

Experian

Will 2011 be the last Census of its kind in E&W?

• Opportunity for change• Evidence based recommendations will be

made in 2014

• Research feasibility of options and learn from international experience

• Open consultations• Access to data• Public acceptability• Economic climate

Questions

and

comments