Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar)

/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014

Will

© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.

survive…… US?

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By Chia Han-LeonLecturer, Enterprise Social Business, Institute of Systems ScienceNational University of Singapore


There are people who “love” Facebook…

More than 1.27 billion users 2.7 billion connected people 1.2 billion monthly active users 13 new users per second

© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 2

To illustrate…..

/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.

The Faces of Facebook by Natalia Rojas (app.thefacesoffacebook.com)

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And there are people who “hate” Facebook

Milennials Teenagers Privacy advocates Disillusioned Marketers

>>


Image: Flickr user owenwbrown]

http://www.flickr.com/owenwbrown


5© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.

http://time.com/34025/the-free-marketing-gravy-train-is-over-on-facebook/

http://adage.com/article/digital/brands-organic-facebook-reach-crashed-october/292004/

http://adage.com/article/digital/facebook-admits-organic-reach-brand-posts-dipping/245530/



https://threatpost.com/privacy-advocates-want-to-halt-facebook-acquisition-of-whatsapp/104673

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/229815

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/27/facebook-dead-and-buried-to-teens-research-finds


Source: iStrategy Labs http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/

Caveat:different range per group

The statistics often say:

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7% of 2,449 teens say they don’t use Facebook.

36% of 1,067 teens say they don’t use Twitter.

Though, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll,

Source: Marketingcharts.com/Piper Jaffray (Oct 2013)

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“Like” and “Use” are two different things


Three popular services

Many young adults use Instagram

Teens say they prefer Whatsapp.

So that apparently leaves most adults, parents, grandparents on…

> 90% of the 150 million people on Instagram are under age 35.

Of all social media users,Age 18-29: 37% use instagramAge 30-49: 18% Age 50-64: 6%

Even primary school students use Whatsapp. However there are no demographics.


(Maybe when the kids grow up…)

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http://www.businessinsider.sg/instagram-demographics-2013-12/


But in case you’ve forgotten…

$1 billion

$19 billion



So actually,

Everyone is (still sort of) using Facebook.



and then Facebook bought

Photo by MHK Marketing, used under Creative Commons license. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mkhmarketing

and made lots of Oculus’ original backers angry



Has the novelty of Facebook worn off?

E.g.

Why write a postwhen you can just#love #TagsForLikes #TFLers #tweegram#photooftheday #20likes #amazing #smile #follow4follow #like4like #look #instalike #igers#picoftheday #food #instadaily #instafollow #followme#girl #iphoneonly #instagood #bestoftheday#instacool #instago #all_shots #follow #webstagram#colorful #style #swag



Facebook has evolved.

It has to.



Regular Improvements

March 2014



2008: The Publisher


Some of Facebook’s key rollouts

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2008:Facebook Chat

Real-time Notifications



The Like

2009



2009: Facebook Pages



So, will Facebook survive?

Yes, based on its mass and evolving usage.



But is Facebook’s mass also its weakness?

Too many eggs in one basket?What if Facebook is smaller? Government-owned/controlled?



http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/13/5488558/danah-boyd-interview-the-era-of-facebook-is-an-anomaly



“The idea of everybody going to one site is just weird.” Give me one other part of history where

everybody shows up to the same social space.

Fragmentation is a more natural state of being.”

Microsoft Researcherdanah boyd



Facebook vs the Competition


A Fragmented Social Web

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Two ways to look at it



1. Where else would we go?

Platforms that have value Facebook doesn’t provide, in terms of a feature or service.



… or in less tangible terms such as privacy or cost of participation.



“LinkedIn is for people you know, Facebook is for people you used to know, Twitter is for people you want to know.”


i.e. they are all different.

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The old joke….


“Twitter makes me like people I’ve never met and Facebook makes me hate people I know in real life.”

- @shaylamaddox

Illustration by Kiersten

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Slightly newer joke ….

http://www.youfail.com/


Familiarity Breeds Contempt.


Knowing someone too well also means knowing his/her faults.

Like our relationship with Facebook, family… and even friends.


2. Does a “Facebook Killer” exist?



Something with:

Identical features/value,

Attractive to/used by many people; and

presumably “better” in some way.

None. Or we don’t know (yet).



How about the other giant tech companies?



It’s a network of functions.

Not a social network.

Just as indispensable as Facebook – probably more(!).


Google’s value is “embedded”

Important value that we call upon when needed.

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Facebook is “wears its heart on its sleeve”. It thrives on the serendipitous and the emotional.

Which we enjoy, we crave.

The very definition of social network.

We don’t think of it as “functionalist”.



Good to know Have to know



So how will Facebook survive if it’s not very “functional”?

What is its “business model”?



AnalogiesFacebook is your sofa/bed.

Option, ComfortUnique,Necessary


Google is like your fridge.

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FBED CONCEPT BY DEVIANTOM (deviantom.com)


Facebook is the food/dish.

The “end product”, the one you enjoy.


Google is the cooking pan.

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Source: http://www.alohasweets.com/

The tool, the means; the one you work with.


Function …. “Function”.


Friends, fulfilment, etc. (SOCIAL)

And this will change things again.


When Google/FB REALLY IS IN your pot, fridge and more.

SOCIAL REDEFINED: capacity to share “have-to-knows” before you need it rather than through serendipitous “good to know”.

One of the masters of this is…


IKEA’s kitchen of the future, the SKARP


The (somewhat) hidden rival:

Could easily become a social network.

Already had the foundations since 1990s.

Reverse situation: already has a business model.



“The Internet is disrupting every media industry… people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy. And Amazon is not happening to book selling, the future is happening to book selling.”

Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/Photo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/

Jeff Bezos

Facebook expects to be disrupted too.



Facebook Acquisitions

Who tried to buy Facebook in 2006?



was a rival to Facebook for photo-sharing.



Had the youth demographics that Facebook was “missing”.



“More of my friends have Whatsapp than Facebook.”

“Too much work to use Facebook. Have to boot up computer. Don’t like the mobile version.”

“I still like Facebook because people in it are more mature.”

I asked my tween what she thought:



But why buy Oculus Rift?



The future in Virtual Reality.

It’s about building the

next-generation internet.



But not like THIS...

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iOptik Augmented Reality contact lenses.(Note: still requires glasses)


http://innovega-inc.com/


Facial Recognition, Augmented Reality, etc.


(Bought by Google in 2012)


Virtual Reality Interfaces


Ironman (Marvel/Paramount)


Gesture Recognition, etc.


http://leapmotion.com


All 4 articles from last week of March 2014.© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 55



P5 Glove - Virtual Reality Data Glove http://www.cwonline.com/

By the way, who would make up the biggest market for virtual reality gaming?

YouthThe segment that is “leaving” Facebook…


Also, Facebook is building drones and satellites to connect more of the world to the internet.



So will Facebook survive….Us?

YES,but not in the form you imagine today.

It’s going to be more than a social network.



Social and Functional technologies will merge


Virtual Reality + Internet of Things + Smart Devices + Social/Collabortive Networking + Predictive Intelligence + …….


conclusionJeff Bezos:

“Companies have short life spans…. And Amazon will be disrupted one day. … I don’t worry about it 'cause I know it’s inevitable. Companies come and go. And the companies that are, you know, the shiniest and most important of any era, you wait a few decades and they’re gone.”Charlie Rose:

“And your job is to make sure that you delay that date?”Jeff Bezos:

“I would love for it to be after I’m dead.”

Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/


Will it?


Thanks for listening!

@leonchia

sg.linkedin.com/in/leonchia/

[email protected]


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