Will goodhand advanced quant - 2011 - 2

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Advanced Quant Techniques July 14, 2011

The Pursuit of Happiness… Can emo:ons predict in-‐market performance?

Will Goodhand, Brainjuicer

2

2

The Pursuit of Happiness… Can emotions predict in-market performance?

Award Winner

2007

2007

Award Winner

2007

2007 Award

Winner

2007

S London S Rotterdam S Lausanne S Hamburg S New York S Chicago S LA S Toronto S Melbourne S Shanghai S Sao Paulo A Leading International Online research agency

Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011

3

Introducing System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking…


4

Implicit has greater processing power (and is less effortful)

System 2

System 1

50 bit/sec

11,000,000 bit/sec

Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the Context of Information Theory".

“We are not thinking

machines that feel; we are

feeling machines that think”

Antonio Damasio


5

Can you tell what it is in the picture?


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The way we think

fffddddggg


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The way we think

fffddddggg


8

The way we think

green


9

The way we think

green


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The way we think

blue


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The way we think

red


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The way we think

blue


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Intuitive Judgement

“A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”

“People are not accustomed to thinking hard, and are oBen content to trust a plausible judgement that quickly comes to mind.” Daniel Kahnemann, Nobel Prize Winner


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Human behaviour driven by two independent brain systems, 1 & 2 …

Explicit Slow

AnalyIcal Learned

ProposiIonal Conscious

System 2

Implicit Fast

IntuiIve InsIncIve Metaphoric Unconscious

System 1


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Current view is that emotion simply helps message cut through…


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But new evidence reveals that the most effective advertising draws people closer to the brand…


Dec 10

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Paul Ekman


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As seen in ‘Lie To Me’ Hit TV Series based on Paul Ekman’s work

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“Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this ad?”

“To what degree did this ad make you feel

[selected emotion]?”

“And what was it about this idea that made you feel this way?”

FaceTrace® - Measuring Emotional Appeal

BrainJuicer® 2006

Contempt

Surprise

Anger

Disgust

Happiness

Sadness

Fear

Neutral Captures ‘Reasons for Emotion’

1Award Winner

2007

2007Award Winner

2007

Award Winner

2007

2007


Dec 10

20

Emotional campaigns outperform rational, info-based campaigns…

16%

26%

31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Emotional Ad Strategy Combined Rational Ad Strategy

Campaign strategy

V la

rge

prof

it ga

ins

(% re

porti

ng)

“Emotional advertising campaigns are more effective & more

profitable than rational campaigns - even in 'rational' categories…”

Les Binet & Peter Field

Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007

(IPA dataMINE analysis study on 880 case studies).

“…The most effective advertisements of all are

those with little or no rational content”

21

Dec 10

21

Fame Campaign examples

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Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this advert?

To what degree did this advert make you feel [selected emotion]?

What was it about this advert that made you feel this way? [Use patented MindReader®

to capture reasons]

Measuring the Cadbury Gorilla Emotionally with FaceTrace®

BrainJuicer © 2006

Contempt

Surprise

Anger

Disgust

Happiness

Sadness

Fear

Neutral

Award Winner

2007

2007


23

Cadbury Gorilla Ad

The best ad around! I just love it!!!! it is different and memorable Great ad, gets people talking about it, memorable

What does a gorilla playing the drums have to do with chocolate?

Don't understand the connection between a gorilla and chocolate

First time I saw it I was really surprised it was for

Excellent ad, not quite sure what gorilla represents, but who cares. Fantastic Ad is brilliant and gorilla makes me laugh, its very clever and easy to remember

Not what I was expecting. Trying to work out whether the gorilla was real... Bizarre and unique. Makes you watch the whole ad to find the tagline.

Good filming, but what has it to do with chocolate?

Cannot see what the connection was between Phil Collins, Gorilla & Chocolate

12

65

16

1

5

2.17

1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f res

pond

ents

Intensity Scoremeasured on ascale from 0 to +3

Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happy

Surprise

24

Cadbury’s most effective ad ever

126

65

43

16

43

5 5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CDM (Gorilla) Commercial ads norm

Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happy

Surprise

2.17 1.33

-1

0

1

2

How easy itis to

understand

How relevantit is to you

Howpersuasiveyou found it

How much ittold you

about thebrand

CDM Gorilla UK TV ad test normVery Positive

Negative

Emotional Intensity (0 to +3)

Would NOT have been progressed on usual information measures

WOULD have been progressed on emotional engagement measures

S  Masterbrand payback 171% vs previous campaigns

S  Revenue ROI of £4.88 for every £1 spent (vs £3.16 for previous persuasion campaign)

S  Hardened price elasticity by 27%


Month Yr

25

FaceTracing Output: Phil Collins

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Start2 s

ec4 s

ec6 s

ec8 s

ec10

sec

12 se

c

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c

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c

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84 se

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86 se

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88 se

c

90 se

c

Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happy

Surprise


Month Yr

26

Heineken Walk-In Fridge


Heineken Walk-in Fridge… …would not have been progressed on cognitive KPIs

27 7 12

43

63

40

214023 3

1.33 2.101 1Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happiness

Surprise

Intensity Score

Finished TV-ad Norm

- Click - to watch advertisement

- Heineken ‘Walk-In fridge’ ad -

Emotional measurement shows how brilliant the ad really is

-‐ 1

0

1

Relevant Persuasive Made youwant buy the

product

How much ittold about

brand

UK TV ad test normVery Positive

Very Negative

Finished TV-ad Norm

Would not have been progressed on cognitive KPIs


28

Both strongly outperform UK benchmark on Emotion-into-ActionTM

1%

22%

28%31%

16%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 >86Emotion-into-Action™ Score

% of Cases (UK finished film norm)

= Great ads = Good ads = Mediocre ads

84

85


…Enjoyed by millions of people on the web

29

R 2 = 0.79

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 Emotional Intensity Score

YouT

ube

Hits

More Emotional Appeal = Exponential Growth in Fame


Dec 10

30

71

44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Not Pre-tested Pre-tested

Traditional pre-testing actually REDUCES ad effectiveness

“Cases with favourable pre-testing results did significantly worse in market

than those that were not tested”

- Binet & Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2008

Source: Marketing in the Era of Accountability, Binet & Field, 2008. Analysis from the IPA DataMine effectiveness database.

Effectiveness Success Rate %


31

The Dirty Little Secret of Traditional Ad Pretesting

71

44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Not Pre-tested Pre-tested

“The dirty little secret of traditional, information-based ad

pretesting is that it’s actually making things worse, by actively discriminating against the best creative & most effective work and suggesting ‘improvements’ to fit it’s

rational, information-based agenda.”


32

So are all categories driven by emotion?

Month Yr

33

World Exclusive: IPA experiment correlating big business effects

XL Business Effects

S  18 Ad campaigns – all submitted for IPA ‘most effective campaign’ award S  Key criterion: # of very large business effects achieved, for example:

S  market share gain S  reduction of price sensitivity S  increased penetration S  profit gain S  loyalty gain

S  Experiment: which KPI can best select most effective 9 out of these 18 ads? Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK

NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011

34

Emotion-into-Action™ score is the best predictor of Ad Effectiveness Traditional KPIs actually discriminate against most effective ads…

2.67

1.67

2.00

2.33

1.78

2.56

2.00

2.33

1.78

2.56

1

2

3

Best 9Ads

Bottom 9Ads

Best 9Ads

Bottom 9Ads

Best 9Ads

Bottom 9Ads

Best 9Ads

Bottom 9Ads

Best 9Ads

Bottom 9Ads

Base: 18 ads for which business effectiveness data is available from the IPA

Average number of very large business effects achieved for top and bottom 9 ads when ordered on each measure

Emotion-into-Action™

Persuasion Established Industry Cut-through

Measure Equivalent

Specific Key Message = on Message

Brand Linkage


Month Yr

35

Emotion-into-Action™ has a strong, positive correlation with efficiency; Traditional cognitive KPIs actually show a negative correlation

0.37

-0.05

-0.27

-0.16

-0.30

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Emotion-into-Action

Persuasion Established Industry Cut-through

Measure Equivalent

Brand Linkage

Base: 10 ads for which SOM and ESOV data is available from the IPA

Specific Key Message = on Message

+ - - - - Extent to which variation in each measure explains variation in efficiency (R-squared values) – with positive or negative correlations marked (+/-)


Month Yr

36 36

Guide to Likely Business Effects

Profit gain extremely likely Share gain very likely Reduction in price sensitivity likely Viral potential in some cases Profit gain quite likely Share gain likely Profit gain possible Share gain potential limited Negative return on marketing investment quite likely Negative return on marketing investment likely

Blockbuster

Must See

Solid Performance

Pedestrian

Straight to Video


60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Emotion-into-Action™ Score

Effic

ienc

y

Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice

Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of 95% confidence interval for efficiency values)

CDM Gorilla ROI £1.85* IPA Silver

* Calculated using a reported revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported ‘conservative industry estimate for gross margin’ of 38%. Source: Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010


Month Yr

38

4 6 102 6 3 2

19

46

25

52

41

5046

62

41

45

44

35

5339 45

33 37

2

0

0 0 0 0 0 00

0

0 0 0 0 0 11

2

1 10 0 2 02

1 12

15

2 3 4 5 1 20

8

0 00

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RickardsAWARDWINNER

Brand A McDonald'sAWARD

WINNER

Brand B McCain SweetPotato

SuperfriesAWARDWINNER

Brand C A PillsburyReady to Bake

CookiesAWARDWINNER

Brand D

% o

f res

pond

ents

Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happiness

Surprise

CASSIES Experiment Canada: Emotional Response

Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about the advert you saw?

72.2 59.6 75.6 70.0 73.2 71.2 78.4 73.6 Emotion-into-Action™Score

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

Beer Fast Food Frozen Potatoes Home Baking Mixes


Dec 10

39

Case Study

40

Tropicana Fruit to the City


41

Tropicana Breakfast in New York


42

1 1 6

72 66

43

27 30

43

100

1 2 58913

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B Commercial adsnorm

ContemptDisgustAngerFearSadnessNeutralHappySurprise

Tropicana: Emotional response a better predictor of ROI

Emotional Intensity (0 to +3)

1.79 1.66

ROI*: £1.83 £1.73

*ROI measured by Nielsen

1.33

5.08

5.00

5.47

5.225.17

5.13

4.5

5

5.5

How much ittold you about

the brand

How relevant itis to you

How persuasiveyou found it

Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B

43

60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Emotion-into-Action™ Score

Effic

ienc

y

43

Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice

Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of 95% confidence interval for efficiency values)

Tropicana Fruit to City ROI £1.73

Tropicana Breakfast in New York ROI £1.83 IPA Silver

* Calculated using a reported revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported ‘conservative industry estimate for gross margin’ of 38%. Source: Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010


Q & A

Will Goodhand BrainJuicer

Andrew Jeavons Survey Analytics

45

July 11 March 2010

45

More info? Will Goodhand Juicy Evangelist [email protected] +44 7980 673 186 www.brainjuicer.com

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