Wiltshire & Swindon’s

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Wiltshire & Swindon’s

Community Risk Register

2021

Issued 20th December 2021

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Contents: Page

Risk Assessment in Wiltshire & Swindon 3

What is the community risk register? 3

What happens after risks have been assessed? 3

Who assesses the risk? 3

When is risk assessed? 3

How is risk assessed? 3

Risk Assessment Methodology 4-5

Risk Rating Matrix 6

Risk by Risk Rating 7-8

Definition of Risk Ratings 9

Risk Prioritisation 9

Wiltshire & Swindon’s Community Risk Register 2021 10-60

Time Limited Risks that have expired 61-63

Glossary 64-65

Further Information 65

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Risk Assessment in Wiltshire & Swindon

What is the Community Risk Register?

The purpose of risk assessment is to identify the range of risks present in the community, assess the likelihood of their occurrence, assess the

health, social, economic & environmental impacts that would occur in the event of the risk happening, & prioritising the risks identified. This is

always based on a worst-case scenario approach. The product of the risk assessment process is called the Community Risk Register (CRR).

What happens after risks have been assessed?

The results of the risk assessment process are used to identify the planning priorities & areas of focus for all resilience work by organisations

that have a duty to plan for & respond to emergency situations (Category 1 organisations). Beginning with the highest rated risks, risk

‘treatments’ & ‘controls’ are identified & analysed to identify prioritised capability drivers. The drivers are then addressed to mitigate the effect

of the risks & inform future planning.

Who assesses the risk?

Risk is assessed by a subgroup of the Local Resilience Forum (LRF), called the Risk Assessment Working Group. All Category 1

organisations have an appropriate representative on the group who provides the ‘expert knowledge’ for the different types of risks assessed.

These risks have been recognised by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat at the Cabinet Office – therefore we follow nationally recognised

best practice & guidance. Risk is also assessed at the National level. The National Risk Register can be found by accessing the gov.uk

website: National Risk Register 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

When is risk assessed?

Risks are assessed on a regular basis, with Very High & High Risks assessed every year, Medium Risks are assessed every two years & Low

Risks are assessed every four years. Some risks are re-assessed more frequently if the need arises, & new risks are assessed when they are

identified.

How is risk assessed?

Risk is assessed by following a particular method laid down in government guidance:

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Risk Assessment Methodology

Risks are broken down into categories. The categories used in Wiltshire & Swindon are:

• Hostile State Activity

• Accidents & System Failures

• Natural Hazards

• Animal & Human Diseases

• Societal

Within each category the individual risks are identified, with a worst-case scenario outcome description of the effect each would have if it occurred. This information is provided by the Cabinet Office, which forms best practice guidance. Each risk is then assessed for the potential impact.

Impact Category Explanation from January 2020

All risks have a wide range of impacts, whether on individuals, businesses, regions or the whole country. To capture this range, the

Community Risk Register utilises the same assessment dimensions that are used in the National Security Risk Assessment:

• Human Welfare: including fatalities directly attributable to the incident, casualties resulting from the incident (including illness, injury & psychological impacts), & evacuation and shelter requirements

• Behavioural: The two sub categories or elements that are assessed are Public Outrage & Public Perception. Public Outrage: Public outrage aims to capture the sense of public outrage after an even has occurred. Public Perception: assesses the sense of personal vulnerability/fear resulting from indirect or direct exposure to an event.

• Economic: Measure of total net cost to the economy, including both direct & indirect costs & losses as well as other costs such as lost tourism & reduced working hours

• Essential Services: Disruption to normal patterns of the daily lives of the public. The twelve sub-categories or elements that are assessed are: Transport, Fuel, Fuel, Gas & Electricity, Food, Water, Health, Social Care, Finance, Communications, Emergency Services (Ambulance, Police, Fire & Rescue & Access to 999 services), Criminal Justice, & Education.

• Environmental: impact on the environment including rubble & debris.

The impact for each category is measured on a score from 0 (no impact) to 5 (catastrophic impact). The score for each category is given a numerical value & the total score from the 5 categories, including a weighting for the highest impacts then becomes the overall impact score for each individual risk.

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Along with the assessment of impact, the likelihood of the risks occurrence in Wiltshire & Swindon are then assessed using the following scale:

Likelihood scoring scale:

Likelihood of event (annual probability assessed over a two-year period) 1 – less than 0.2% 2 – between 0.2% & 1% 3 – between 1% & 5% 4 – between 5% & 25% 5 – more than 25%

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Once the impact & likelihood scores have been assessed, they are plotted onto a matrix, which gives the overall risk rating:

Risk Rating Matrix:

R095

R076

R068

Key

R074 R080 R097 RHL04

RL11 R078 RHL11

RHL03 R064 R082

R077 R075 R090 R091

R061 R055 R054

R084 R096

R071 R070 R098R102 R092

RL098a R073

R054a R063 R089

R101

R057 R062 R085 R104 R083 R087

R094 RHL22R093

R103 R069 RHL10

R072 RHL43

RHL23 RL11

R105 R079

RHL44

RL14 R100

R043

Low (1) Medium Low (2) Medium (3) Medium High (4) High (5)

Cat

astr

op

hic

(5)

Sign

ific

ant

(4)

Very

High

Mo

der

ate

(3)

High

Min

or

(2)

Medium

Insi

gnif

ican

t (

1)

Low

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Risks by Risk Rating

Risk Level Risk Ref Likelihood Impact Description

Very High R095 3 5 Influenza type disease

Very High R076 3 5 Failure of National Electricity Transmission System

Very High R068 2 5 Accident Involving High Consequence Dangerous Goods

Very High R097 3 4 Emerging infectious disease

Very High RHL04 4 4 Major pollution of surface waters & groundwater

Very High RHL11 3 4 Railway accident

Very High R082 3 4 Fluvial Flooding

Very High R091 4 4 Low Temperatures and Heavy Snow

Very High R090 4 4 Heat Wave

High R080 2 4 Systemic Financial Crisis – Institutional & Market Failure

High R074 2 4 Major reservoir dam failure/collapse

High R078 2 4 Disruption or loss of telecommunications systems

High R064 2 4 Large Toxic Chemical Release

High RHL03 2 4 Localised industrial accident involving a small toxic release

High R075 2 4 Failure of Water Infrastructure or Loss of Drinking Water

High R077 2 4 Failure of Gas Supply Infrastructure

High R096 3 3 The Growth and Spread of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR)

High R054 2 4 Major Fire

High R092 3 3 Severe Space Weather

High R102 3 3 Actual or threatened significant disruption to the distribution of fuel by road including as a result of industrial action by tanker drivers

High R073 4 3 Major Social Care Provider Business Failure

High RL098a 4 3 Outbreak of Exotic Notifiable Disease in Animals (including birds) (e.g. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), rabies and West Nile virus) (Zoonotic)

High R089 3 3 Natural catastrophe resulting in mass casualty event

High R083 3 3 Surface Water Flooding

High R101 5 3 Industrial Action - Public Transport

High R104 3 3 Public Disorder

High R085 3 3 Poor Air Quality

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High R087 4 3 Volcanic eruption

High R093 4 3 Storms

Medium RL11 1 4 Incident in Box Tunnel

Medium R084 2 3 Drought

Medium R055 1 4 Fire or Explosion at a Fuel Distribution Site

Medium R061 1 4 Fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline

Medium R098 2 3 Outbreak of Exotic Notifiable Disease in Animals (including birds) (Non-Zoonotic)

Medium R070 1 3 Radiation Exposure from incorrectly disposed of or stolen sources.

Medium R071 1 3 Collision of a Large Commercial Airline & a Business Jet

Medium R063 2 3 Accidental Release of a Biological Substance (Localised Legionella Outbreak)

Medium R054a 2 3 Wildfire

Medium R062 1 3 Accidental release of an infectious biological pathogen

Medium R057 1 3 Explosion at a High-Pressure Pipeline

Medium RHL22 2 3 Building Collapse

Medium RHL10 3 2 Local accident on motorways & major trunk roads

Medium R094 1 3 Earthquake

Medium R069 3 2 Food Supply Contamination

Medium RHL43 4 2 Public Sector Industrial Action

Medium R072 4 2 Collapse of Major Contractor Integral to the Provision of Key Public Services and Construction of Critical UK Infrastructure

Medium RL11 4 2 Large numbers of stranded persons & animals on the transport network for an extended period

Medium R079 4 2 Financial Services - a technical failure at a Critical National Infrastructure retail bank

Medium R105 4 2 Influx of British Nationals

Medium R100 4 2 Industrial Action by the Prison Officers Association

Medium RL14 3 2 Localised meningitis outbreak

Medium RHL44 2 2 Gold Command Resilience

Low R103 1 2 Actual or threatened significant disruption to the distribution of fuel supplies as a result of an insolvency at a key refinery or terminals.

Low RHL23 1 2 Bridge collapse

Low R043 3 1 Undermining UK Democratic Process

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Definitions of Risk Ratings:

• Very High (VH) risk – these are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or

low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority. This may

mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of (multi-agency)

planning, exercising & training for these hazards should be put in place & the risk monitored on a regular frequency.

Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.

• High (H) risk – these risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential

consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as ‘very high’.

Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also mitigation in the form

of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising & training should be put in place & the risk monitored on a regular

frequency.

• Medium (M) risk – these risks are less significant but may cause upset & inconvenience in the short term. These risks should

be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed & consideration given to their being managed under

generic emergency planning arrangements.

• Low (L) risk – these risks are both unlikely to occur & not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal

or generic planning arrangements & require minimal monitoring & control unless subsequent risk assessments show a

substantial change, prompting a move to another risk category.

Risk Prioritisation:

Once all the risks have been ‘rated’ they are then numerically prioritised by the level of their rating, so the focus of resilience work &

planning is undertaken based on order of priority. The highest rated risks will be addressed before the lower rated risks.

This document displays the risk assessment results for non-malicious events rather than for those caused deliberately (malicious

threats). These threats are being addressed but remain a confidential aspect to the risk register.

Below is the Community Risk Register for Wiltshire & Swindon:

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Wiltshire & Swindon Community Risk Register 2021

Risk Ref Risk Sub Categories Outcome Description Lik

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Controls in Place Lead Assessor

Date Reviewed

Hostile State Activity

R043 Undermining UK Democratic Process

A cyber attack conducted by a hostile state actor (HSA) on the UK electoral system during an election period. The attack could cause disruption to the electoral processes, result in data loss or manipulation and impact the result, or public confidence in the result.

3 1

Low

1) HSA Strategy 2017 2) Cyber Threat to UK Elections assessment produced by NCSC 3) Joint State Threats Assessment Team (JSTAT) 4) NCSC paper - Advisory: Hostile state actors compromising UK organisations with focus on engineering & industrial control companies 5) National Cyber Security Centre advice 6) Cyber Security Information Sharing Partnership (CiSP) membership by LRF partners 7) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

Swindon Borough Council

15/12/ 2021

Accidents & Systems Failure

R054 Major Fire A major fire in a high rise building resulting in significant loss of life or injury - for example, in a high rise residential building, care home or hospital.

2 4

Hig

h

1) Risk identification, assessment & scrutiny by enforcing bodies such as FRS, HSE & LAs 2) Training for incidents by; LRF & FRS

Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service

15/09/ 2021

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3) Met Office Plume monitoring 4) Air quality monitoring by LA & EA 5) Fire Service SSRI (Site Specific Risk Information) 6) Rivers & water courses mapped & monitored by EA 7) Water Monitoring by Water Companies 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

R054a

Wildfire A sustained & widespread wildfire, close to major infrastructure, or at an urban/rural interface with varying degrees of intensity & 'burn-back' for a period of 4 to 7 days, particularly impacting major transport networks, tourism & the environment at significant economic cost.

2 3

Mediu

m

1) DWFRS Heath fires & countryside safety guidance 2) DWFRS Firewise UK scheme 3) FRS & MOD emergency response plans 4) MOD range management 5) FRS mutual aid arrangements 6) Wildfires Index provided by the Met Office 7) DWFRS prevention work & advice 8) LRF Partner Agency business continuity plans 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides


15/09/ 2021

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R055 Fire or Explosion at a Fuel Distribution Site

Fire or explosion at a fuel distribution site, or at a site storing flammable &/or toxic liquids at atmospheric pressure storage sites.

1 4

Mediu

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1) External scrutiny on Risks from enforcing bodies such as; LA, HSE & FRS 2) COMAH Regulations & inspections 3) Training for incidents by; LRF & FRS 4) Risk identification & assessment by FRS & enforcing bodies, such as HSE 5) Rivers & water courses mapped & monitored by EA 6) Met Office Plume monitoring 7) EA quality monitoring 8) Water Monitoring by Water Companies 9) Appropriate LRF &LHRP Guides & Plans


21/10/ 2021

R057 Explosion at a High Pressure Pipeline

An accidental explosion at a high pressure gas pipeline running through an urban area. The ignition of flammable gas under high pressure could cause a loud explosion, which could result in fire, a crater, destruction of buildings & evacuation from homes.

1 3

M

ediu

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1) Major accident hazard pipelines (MAH pipelines or MAHPs) (HSE) 2) The Pipelines Safety Regulations 1996 3) Training for incidents by; LRF & FRS 4) Risk identification & assessment by FRS & enforcing bodies, such as Oil & Pipelines Agency


21/10/ 2021

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5) Rivers & water courses mapped & monitored by EA 6) Met Office Plume monitoring 7) EA quality monitoring 8) Water Monitoring by Water Companies 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

R061

Fire or Explosion at an Onshore Fuel Pipeline

An accidental explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline situated close to a populated (e.g. urban) area. The ignition of flammable fuel under high pressure could cause a result in a loud explosion, which could cause a crater, destruction of buildings & evacuation from homes.

1 4

M

ediu

m

1) Major accident hazard pipelines (MAH pipelines or MAHPs) (HSE) 2) The Pipelines Safety Regulations 1996 3) Training for incidents by; LRF & FRS 4) Risk identification & assessment by FRS & enforcing bodies, such as Oil & Pipelines Agency 5) Rivers & water courses mapped & monitored by EA 6) Met Office Plume monitoring 7) EA quality monitoring 8) Water Monitoring by Water Companies 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans


21/10/ 2021

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R062 Accidental release of an infectious biological pathogen

Accidental release of an infectious biological substance from a facility where pathogens are handled deliberately (Hazard Group 3 or 4 pathogen release from containment laboratory).

1 3

Mediu

m

1) Site operator plans & procedures 2) Inspection regimes by regulatory bodies 3) DH & UKHSA National Plans & Guidance 4) Police, Ambulance, Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue & Hospital CBRNe procedures 5) LRF CBRNe procedure & guides 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

UK Health Security Agency (Prior to 1st April 2021 Public Health England)

21/07/ 2021

R063 Accidental Release of a Biological Substance (Localised Legionella Outbreak)

Accidental release of a biological agent caused by an unrelated work activity. The RWCS is based on Legionella release due to improperly maintained building environmental control systems, which cause 7 fatalities & hospitalisation of up to 500 people.

2 3

Mediu

m

1) Sources of infection are regulated under occupational health & safety regulations & monitored by the Health & Safety Executive or Local Authority offices 2) Proactive maintenance should reduce the potential for release of aerosols containing viable Legionella Pneumophila & related bacteria. 3) Reactive response to outbreaks also possible through occupational health & safety regime


21/07/ 2021

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4) Known disease & appropriate treatment regimens are in place 5) NHS Incident Response Plans 6) Continuous National surveillance programme in place by UKHSA 7) Plans for the mobilisation of prophylactic medicines 8) Local Authority Local Outbreak Management Plans (LOMP) 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R064 Large Toxic Chemical Release

Large toxic chemical release caused by the accidental release of chlorine or a number of other chemicals e.g. anhydrous hydroflouric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur di-oxide (or trioxide) gas. This incident arises from possible mechanical equipment/process failure or corrosion, and not necessarily involving fire or explosion.

2 4

Hig

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1) Risks covered by external regulation & inspection, 2) Fire & Rescue Service system for risk analysis, assessment & training 3) LRF joint working 4) Emergency plan training & practicing 5) EA drainage & water management plans 6) BASIS Regulations for storage of Agricultural chemicals 7) DESR Regulations 8) Major Accident Control Regulations (MACR) &


15/09/ 2021

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Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) Regulations 9) CHEMET & Plume Monitoring capabilities 10) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

R068 Accident Involving High Consequence Dangerous Goods

A single road tanker containing high consequence dangerous goods is involved in an accident causing a fire or explosion in an urban area, resulting in 300 fatalities & 900 casualties. The explosion causes varying degrees of damage to the affected road & residential & office buildings in the vicinity. A toxic plume/gas cloud leads to the partial evacuation of the immediate area until it disperses.

2 5

Very

Hig

h

1) Road network design & maintenance 2) National Highways Crisis Management Manual 3) Railroad Incident Management Guide 4) Compliance with regulations including Transport of Dangerous Goods Regs 5) Multi-agency enforcement 6) FRS system for risk analysis, assessment, & training 7) FRS response procedures 8) DFRMO (Defence Fire Risk Management Organisation) response arrangements 9) Contact & liaison with Porton Down & COMAH sites


15/09/ 2021

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10) Operation Redshank 11) EA drainage & water management plans 12) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R069 Food Supply Contamination

A major contamination incident involving a microbiological pathogen in the food chain causing illness, hospitalisation & possible fatalities in a moderate to large number of people over a period of a few days to weeks to identify the contaminant & months for the response.

3 2

Mediu

m

1) EU Rapid Alert System Food & Feed (RASFF) 2) National Food Crime Unit & Food Crime Unit toolkits & guidance 3) South West Regional Workshop held in 2013 to align plans 4) Wiltshire Council & Swindon Borough Council Public Protection Service 24/7 response to local & national food emergencies 5) Local Authority Environmental Health Inspection Regime, Plans Guidance & Procedures 6) NHS (including Ambulance) Plans & Procedures 7) UKHSA guidelines for contact tracing 8) Swindon Major Incident Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 9) Wiltshire Council Major


22/04/ 2021

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Incident & Wiltshire Council Recovery Plan 10) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R070 Radiation Exposure from incorrectly disposed of or stolen sources.

Incorrect handling of an incorrectly disposed of or stolen radioactive source leads to accidental exposure to radioactive material. Three deaths after a month & eight people requiring long term medical supervision.

1 3

Mediu

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1) All radioactive discharges in the UK are regulated under the Radioactive Substances Act 1993 to ensure that radioactivity discharged remains well within internationally agreed levels 2) Risks covered by external regulation & inspection 3) DWFRS FSRI for identified site(s) 4) DWFRS SOP Hazmat & Radiation 5) South West CBRN Plan 6) South West CBRN Sub Group & quarterly updates to LRF partners 7) LRF Media & Communications Guide 8) Site specific emergency plans for hospitals 9) NHS plans for treatment of patients exposed to radiation 10) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide

Wiltshire Council

18/08/ 2021

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(EMAP) 11) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R071

Collision of a Large Commercial Airline and a Business Jet

Airborne collision between a large commercial airliner & a business jet over a major urban area killing all passengers & crew on board both aircraft (up to 200).

1 3

Med

ium

1) Civil Aviation Authority, CAP 393 Air Navigation Order & Regulations. 2) European Aviation Safety Regulations. 3) Blue Light Agency Response to Crashed Aircraft. 4) Exercise Archers Shield. 5) Scientific Technical Advice provided by STAC (Scientific Technical Advisory Cell). Exercise 2018. STAC Training by UKHSA. 6) Met Office Plume Monitoring & forecasting. 7) Wiltshire Council Humanitarian Assistance Centre Guide & Swindon Borough Council Rest Centre Administration Guide. 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

Wiltshire Police

17/06/ 2021

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R072 Collapse of Major Contractor Integral to the Provision of Key Public Services and Construction of Critical UK Infrastructure

This scenario is based on collapse of a major provider of integrated facilities management & construction services for a range of private & public organisations. The services are provided directly & via joint venture. The services are critical to the operation of public services in some parts of health, education, justice, defence & local & central government sectors. The company also has a number of private sector customers, information about these is not available prior to the collapse.

4 2

Mediu

m

1) Central Government, Local Authority, & public agency procurement & contract management 2) Central Government, Local Authority, & public agency audit regimes 3) Agency business continuity plans 4) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides


17/11/ 2021

R073

Major Social Care Provider Business Failure

Adult social care provider failure occurs when a provider ceases operations which can happen for a number of reasons including insolvency or a provider handing back their contract to a local authority. This can happen both in care home sector & domiciliary care sector.

4 3

Hig

h

1) Central Government, Local Authority, & public agency procurement & contract management 2) Central Government, Local Authority, & public agency audit regimes 3) Agency business continuity plans 4) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides


17/11/ 2021

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R074 Reservoir or Dam Collapse

Sudden collapse of a reservoir dam without warning, resulting in instantaneous flooding with a very large quantity of water moving at high speed causing major destruction to an urban area. This is estimated to be a low likelihood - high consequence risk.

2 4

Hig

h

1) Legislative controls, currently applicable to reservoirs of >25,000 m3 Reservoirs Act 1975 as amended by the Water Act 2003 & the Flood & Water Management Act 2010. 2) Site owners emergency plans for those sites covered by the Reservoirs Act 3) Site owners emergency plans for those sites covered by the Reservoirs Act 4) DEFRA listing of qualified engineers under the Act 5) Local Authority procedures regarding dangerous buildings 6) Swindon Borough Council Rest Centre Administration Guide 7) Wiltshire Council Humanitarian Assistance Centre Guide 8) (Swindon) Major Incident Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 9) (Wiltshire) Major Incident Plan & Recovery Plan

Environment Agency

19/05/ 2021

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10) Swindon Coate Water Off-site & On-site plans 11) Exercise Bustard January 2014 12) Review of new LRF Reservoir Plan 13) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide 14) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R075 Failure of Water Infrastructure or Loss of Drinking Water

Complete and relatively sudden loss of piped water supply, or the degradation of the piped supply such that is unfit for human consumption even after boiling, for up to 350,000 people for between 24 hours and two weeks due to an accident

2 4

Hig

h

1) Drinking Water Inspectorate Regulations & Guidance 2) Water Act 2003 3) Water Company Supply Regulations 4) Stocks of bottled water & bowsers 5) Arrangements to deliver emergency stocks of water if supply fails 6) Well tested Mutual Aid protocols 7) Exercises with partner agencies to test and improve resilience 8) Annual written Report to the Secretary of State 9) LRF Water Disruption Guide 10) Appropriate LRF &

Swindon Borough Council / Thames Water / Wessex Water / Veolia Water

17/02/ 2021

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LHRP Plans & Guides

R076 Failure of National Electricity Transmission System

The national transmission system (NETS) transports the electricity produced by generators across the UK. Total failure of this system would cause nationwide loss of power - all consumers without backup facilities will lose power instantaneously & without warning. A cascade of failure will span across other sectors such as telecoms, gas & sewerage, causing significant disruption to public service provision as well as to the majority of businesses & households.

3 5

Very

Hig

h

1) Each Distribution Network Operator has robust, well developed & resilient emergency & contingency plans to recover the electricity network from such a failure 2) The Security of Supply standards 3) LRF Utilities Failure Guide 4) Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans including Interrupted Power Supplies, Generator, Generator Points, Solar &/or Wind Power 5) Local Authority promotion of Business Continuity to Businesses & the Third & Voluntary sectors 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans


16/12/ 2020

R077 Failure of Gas Supply Infrastructure

A technical failure or accident in an upstream oil/gas facility, gas import pipeline terminal, or Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) import reception facility leading to disruption in UK gas supplies. A catastrophic accident

2 4

Hig

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1) Each Distribution Network Operator has robust, well developed & resilient emergency & contingency plans to recover the gas network from such a failure


15/12/ 2021

24


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could destroy all parts of a facility with some loss of life. This could potentially result in a significant loss of gas supply capability to the UK, which could also impact on power generation if high demand were high.

2) GAS ACT 1986 - Standard conditions of gas supply licence 3) LRF Utilities Failure Guide 4) Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans including Interrupted Power Supplies, Generator, Generator Points, Solar &/or Wind Power 5) Local Authority promotion of Business Continuity to Businesses & the Third & Voluntary sectors 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

R078 Disruption or Loss of Telecommunication Systems

Loss of fixed and mobile telecommunications for up to 100,000 people for up to 72 hours. Mainly household customers impacted. The impact on businesses would depend on the extent of resilience purchased. Service impacts would vary - for both mobile and landline - the geographical area affected should be restricted to that served by the exchange and outage to landline voice likely also to affect

2 4

Hig

h

1) Activation of Operation Link in order to invoke LRF protocols 2) Resilience Satellite Network (RSN) 3) RAYNET (Radio Amateurs Emergency Network) 4) Airwave 5) 999 fallback arrangements 6) Telephony providers national, regional & local plans


17/02/ 2021

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landline data. A mobile data outage would not necessarily affect voice traffic (& vice versa).

7) Pre-prepared Media Release (Loss of Telecommunications) 8) Exercise Exchange 2014 & 2015 9) LRF Telephony Failure Guide 10) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide (EMAP) 11) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R079 Financial Services - a Technical Failure at a Critical National Infrastructure Retail Bank

A technological failure which renders a significant portion of a CNI retail bank's IT operable. Immediate effects last for 48-72 hours, with some customers experiencing disruption for several weeks as backlogs are cleared and potentially, also some permanent data loss or data corruption.

4 2

Mediu

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1) Bank of England - Banking License agreed term for each Bank 2) Audited requirement for Banks to have business continuity & IT Disaster Recovery plans & procedures. 3) Bank procedures for back-up & recovery of data & systems 4) Reporting by Banks to Bank of England including to Prudential Regulatory Authority 5) Finance Conduct Authority RegData


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reporting 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R080 Systemic Financial Crisis – Institutional & Market Failure

A severe economic downturn &/ or crisis of confidence precipitates the failure of one or more UK systematic banks. This could be driven by domestic or international developments, which pressurise UK financial institutions or the UK economy more broadly. This would have a major negative impact on GDP by reducing bank lending, consumption & broader investment.

2 4

Hig

h

1) Bank of England - Banking License agreed terms for each Bank 2) Reporting by Banks to Bank of England including to Prudential Regulatory Authority 3) Finance Conduct Authority RegData reporting 4) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides


17/11/ 2021

RHL03 Localised industrial accident involving a small toxic release

A localised industrial accident involving a small toxic release affecting an area of up to 1km from site causing up to 10 fatalities & up to 100 casualties. Specific Assumptions - Industry of this nature is assumed to be evenly distributed across the country

2 4

Hig

h

1) Risk identification, assessment and scrutiny by enforcing bodies such as FRS, HSE & LAs 2) Training for incidents by; LRF & FRS 3) COMAH site specific off-site plans & exercising 4) Rivers & water courses mapped & monitored by EA 5) Met Office Plume monitoring 6) Air quality monitoring by LA & EA 7) Fire Service SSRI (Site


15/09/ 2021

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Specific Risk Information) 8) Water Monitoring by Water Companies 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

RHL04 Major Pollution of Surface Waters and Groundwater

Pollution incident impacting upon surface waters (inland & coastal waters) & groundwater. For example, this could be caused by chemical spillage or release of a large quantity of untreated sewage, leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on water quality, major damage to aquatic ecosystems, closure of potable abstraction point(s), major impact on amenity (i.e. tourism) value, serious impact on human health.

4 4

Very

Hig

h

1) Environment Agency have a 24 hour 365 day incident response system in place 2) Environment Agency has systems & procedures in place to assess pollution incidents & contact Water Companies where there is possible pollution impact to water abstractions (surface water & groundwater) 3) Environment Agency continues to carry out catchment walkover surveys on an ongoing basis, undertaken in response to the requirements of the Water Framework Directive. Aimed at identifying pollutant sources, surveys are carried out where particularly sensitive catchments or potential pollution problems are identified.

Environment Agency

19/05/ 2021

28


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4) EA Incident Management guidance & work instruction documents in place to assist during major incidents. 5) Local Authority Environmental Health Departments monitoring of sources of potable water & pollution incidents. 6) Fire & Rescue Service supplied with pollution control equipment & an Environment Protection Unit. 7) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide (EMAP). 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

RHL10

Local Accident on Motorways and Major Trunk Roads

Multiple vehicle incident causing up to 10 fatalities & up to 20 casualties (internal injuries, fractures, possible burns); closure of lanes or carriageways causing major disruption and delays. Casualties and fatalities may not be the sole reason for closure of the carriageways.

3 2

Mediu

m

1) National Alternate Diversions Plan 2) Vehicles safety regulations 3) LRF Stranded Passengers & Animals Plan - Road & Rail 4) Appropriate LRF & LRHP Plans & Guides


17/06/ 2021

29


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RHL11 Railway Accident Railway accident, up to 30 fatalities & up to 100 casualties (fractures, internal injuries – burns less likely). Possible loss of freight. Major disruption to rail line including possible closure of rail tunnel.

3 4

Very

Hig

h

1) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Operating Standards governing the operation of the railways within the UK. 2) British Transport Police & Local Home Office Police Force Major Incident Manuals 3) Network Rail Standard Operating Procedures in relation to track & structures inspection & maintenance 4) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Emergency Arrangements & Procedures 5) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Incident Response Plans. 6) Fire Service Pre-Determined Response arrangements to Railway Incidents & Major Emergency Arrangements 7) NHS Emergency Procedures & Management in relation to receiving Hospitals 8) Network Rail & Train Operators Stranded train &

British Transport Police

17/06/ 2021

30


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Date Reviewed

passenger arrangements. 9) Local Authority Survivor Reception Centre Plans & Arrangements 10) Network Rail "Think Track" Television advertising 11) British Transport Police Camera Vans used to detect and deter dangerous or illegal behaviour at crossings & across the network 12) Exercise Isambard 13) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

RHL22 Building Collapse Collapse of a building. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing. Localised loss of power & other essential services. Local access routes affected due to road closures. Depending on the size & construction of building, & occupation rates, there will always remain the possibility of fatalities or serious casualties.

2 3

Mediu

m

1) Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service Plans & Operational Procedures 2) Local Authority – Dynamic assessment & road closure procedures. 3) Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service & National Resilience assets 4) Local Authority Building Control procedures & response capabilities 5) Urban Search & Rescue plans & procedures 6) NHS (including


18/10/ 2020

31


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Ambulance & HART) Plans & Procedures. 7) Exercise Concido 2017 8) (Swindon) Major Incident Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 9) (Wiltshire) Major Incident Plan & Recovery Plan 10) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

RHL23 Bridge Collapse Bridge collapse. Roads, access roads and transport infrastructure impassable for considerable length of time. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing & possibility of fatalities or serious casualties. Potential localised loss of power & other essential services if bridge was used to carry utility infrastructure. Local access routes affected due to road closures.

1 2

Low

1) Inspection & improvement programme for Rail Bridges by Network Rail 2) Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service Plans & Operational Procedures 3) Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service & National Resilience assets 4) Local Authority – Dynamic assessment & road closure procedures. 5) Wiltshire Police notification procedures 6) Urban Search & Rescue plans & procedures 7) NHS (including Ambulance & HART) Plans & Procedures. 8) Swindon Major Incident


22/04/ 2021

32


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Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 9) Wiltshire Council Major Incident Plan & Recovery Plan 10) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

RL11 Large numbers of stranded persons and animals on the transport network for an extended period

Large numbers of stranded persons & animals on the transport network for an extended period. This may be caused by a many different reasons including severe weather, traffic or rail accidents, or failure of transport infrastructure with the common factor being the risk to the welfare of those stranded.

4 2

Mediu

m

1) LRF Stranded Passengers & Animals Plan - Road & Rail. 2) 4 X 4 Sharing Protocol 3) National Alternate Diversions Plan 4) Association of Train Operators ATOC/Network Rail Good Practice Guide – Meeting the Needs of Passengers when Trains are Stranded 5) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.


17/06/ 2021

RL12 Incident in Box Tunnel Incident in Box Tunnel. Possible loss of freight. Major disruption to rail line including possible closure of rail tunnel. Immediate impact on rail network with major rail line between London & the West Country affected - long delays to journeys & alternative rail routes may quickly become affected with delays &

1 4

Mediu

m

1) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Operating Standards governing the operation of the railways within the UK. 2) British Transport Police & Local Home Office Police Force Major Incident Manuals 3) Network Rail Standard

British Transport Police

17/06/ 2021

33


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Date Reviewed

cancellations. Operating Procedures in relation to track & structures inspection & maintenance 4) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Emergency Arrangements & Procedures Guide – Meeting the Needs of Passengers when Trains are Stranded 5) Network Rail & Train Operating Companies Incident Response Plans. 6) Fire Service Pre Determined Response arrangements to Railway Incidents & Major Emergency Arrangements 7) NHS Emergency Procedures & Management in relation to receiving Hospitals 8) Network Rail & Train Operators Stranded train & passenger arrangements. 9) Local Authority Survivor Reception Centre Plans & Arrangements 10) Network Rail "Think Track" Television advertising

34


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11)British Transport Police Camera Vans used to detect and deter dangerous or illegal behaviour at crossings & across the network 12)Exercise Isambard 1st October 2015 13) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

Natural Hazards

R082 Fluvial Flooding Flooding: A massive river flood event or series of cumulative local events &/or a number of concurrent events across multiple geographical regions following a sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks possibly combined with snow melt & surface water flooding.

3 4

Very

Hig

h

1) EA provide flood warning service to public in flood warning areas. 2) Operational Flood plans for the top 20 identified places at risk of flooding in Wiltshire 3) Met Office operate National Severe Weather Warning Service which aims to give advance notice of severe weather, rain in the case of flooding. 4) Met Office & Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre providing Flood Guidance Statement 5) LRF Severe Weather Guide & Flood Supporting Document 6) Flood defences in most

Environment Agency

19/05/ 2021

35


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Date Reviewed

affected areas, with maintenance program in place 7) Wiltshire Council Flood Plan 8) Swindon Borough Council Flood Response Guide 9) Local Authority, Police & National Highways emergency procedures regarding road closures 10) Met Office Community Resilience Web page 11) Flood wardens & other measures to promote community resilience 12) Police & other responding agencies national mutual aid arrangements. 13) Additional resources provided by agencies detailed in the LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide (EMAP) 14) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R083 Surface Water Flooding

Surface run off means rainwater & other precipitation (snow) which is on

3 3

Hig

h 1) Mobilisation of high

volume pumps by DWFRS. 2) Met Office operate

Environment

19/05/ 2021

36


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Date Reviewed

the surface of the ground, & has not entered the watercourse, drainage system or public sewer. The risk of surface water flooding is raised when rainfall falls at a rate which means the local environment cannot transport the water away fast enough & so flooding occurs.

National Severe Weather Warning Service which aims to give advance notice of severe weather, rain in the case of flooding, but convective weather events are challenging to forecast. 3) Met Office & Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre providing Flood Guidance Statement 4) Wiltshire Council Flood Plan 5) Swindon Borough Council Flood Response Guide 6) Local Authority, Police & Highway England procedures regarding road closures 7) Met Office Community Resilience Web page 8) Flood wardens & other measures to promote community resilience 9) Additional resources provided by agencies detailed in the LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide (EMAP) 10) Appropriate LRF &

Agency

37


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LHRP Plans & Guides

R084 Drought After three consecutive dry winters, large parts of the south & east of England are facing severe drought conditions. Neighbouring areas such as the midlands & south west are also facing drought related impacts. Impacts could include public water supply restrictions - severe restrictions (e.g. reduction in mains pressure & rota cuts) affect 560,000 households & 288,000 businesses.

2 3

Mediu

m

1) Water Resources Act 1991 with specific reference to Section 73 Power to make ordinary & emergency drought orders. 2) DEFRA: Planning for Major Water & Wastewater Incidents in England & Wales: Generic Guidance (http://www.ukresilience.info/upload/assets/www.ukresilience.info/water_guidance.pdf) 3) Water companies have drought plans that set out the actions they will take to supply demand & protect the environment during a drought, including measures such as publicity campaigns to reduce water usage & drought permits and drought orders. These are being updated to statutory drought plans at present. 4) The Environment Agency has regional & area drought plans that set out its actions & decision points. 5) In a drought the

Environment Agency

19/05/ 2021

38


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Environment Agency will assess & potentially grant drought permits. 6) Progressive restraints on consumption starting with amenity activities. 7) Tight measures to control the balance of supply & demand. 8) Water companies plan for levels of service in their long-term water resources plans. Their current service levels are summarised as: • Company, • Hosepipe ban, • Drought order / permit, • Rota cuts / standpipes 9) Water companies will take every possible step to avoid EDOs due to the widespread disruption & impacts listed above. They will consider all preventative actions, including: hosepipe bans, more leakage control, non-essential use restrictions, transfers from other companies, progressive drought permits & orders to take more water, drought orders to stop other

39


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abstraction & divert effluent, restrictions on industrial customers' water use, bringing old sources back into use, packaged desalination plants where appropriate, & credible engineering schemes to bring water from further away. 10) DEFRA Planning for Major Water & Wastewater Incidents in England & Wales: Generic Guidance – outlines the framework for response. 11) EA Wessex & EA Thames Drought Plans 12) Water Companies are the lead (but not sole) responders for an EDO. There will be close liaison with other agencies to agree & implement more advance water restrictions. 13) Responses will include dealing with vulnerable groups e.g. hospitals, schools etc. Supply of water for essential use. 14) Appropriate LRF &

40


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LHRP Plans & Guides

R085 Poor Air Quality Air pollution can affect human health & the environment. Sustained periods of elevated pollution levels, referred to as Air Quality Episodes, can lead to significant health risks. The pollutants which have the most significant short term impacts on human health are ground-level ozone & particulate matter.

3 3

Hig

h

1) World Health Organisation Air Quality Guidelines, 2) EU Ambient Air Quality Directive 2004/107/EC 3) National Ceilings Regulations 2002 4) UK Air Quality Strategy 2007 5) Defra co-ordination of assessment & air quality plans for the UK 6) Met Office provides the air pollution forecast on behalf of DEFRA https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/air-quality 7) Environment Act 1995 8) COMEAP (The Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants) advice 9) Wiltshire Council & Swindon Borough Council air quality monitoring 10) Swindon's Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) Air Quality Needs Assessment 2017 11) Wiltshire Council &


17/02/ 2021

41


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Swindon Borough Council air online advice 12) Wiltshire Council know and respond health and air quality warning system 13) Wiltshire Council & Swindon Borough Council Planning Policies 14) Wiltshire Council & Swindon Borough Council Transport Planning Strategies 15) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R087 Volcanic Eruption Volcanic ash incursions into UK airspace for up to 25 days (from an ash rich eruption) resulting in sporadic & temporary closures of significant parts of UK airspace for up to a total of 15 days (potentially non-consecutive) with more moderate disruption over an additional 10 days during a three month eruption period.

4 3

Hig

h

1) International Civil Aviation Organisation - International Airways Volcano Watch Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACS). A VAAC is located in the UK & monitors Iceland, the UK & the North East Atlantic 2) Met Office is one of 8 global Regionally Specialised Meteorological Centres for modelling dispersal of particles 3) International & National networks of experts established


18/08/ 2021

42


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4) National Guidance 5) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures (EMAP) 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R089 Natural catastrophe resulting in mass casualty event

Massive submarine earthquake in the Indian Ocean over 9.1 magnitude triggering a tsunami that affects 12 or more countries (including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar (Burma), Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Seychelles, Tanzania, Somalia & Kenya), with devastating consequences including mass casualties & a humanitarian crisis.

3 3

Hig

h

1) International Civil Aviation Organisation - International Airways Volcano Watch Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACS). A VAAC is located in the UK & monitors Iceland, the UK & the North East Atlantic 2) International & National networks of experts established 3) National Guidance 4) Voluntary services assistance plans, 5) Humanitarian assistance plan 6) National planning regarding repatriation of British Nationals. 7) Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) Plans in place to provide consular assistance. 8) World Health Organisation’s International


15/12/ 2021

43


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Date Reviewed

Alerting arrangements 9) World Health Organisation’s outbreak response framework, 10) Health Protection Unit Outbreak Control Plan, 11) UKHSA Port Health Plan, 12) NHS Major Incident Plans, 13) LHRP community disease plan, 14) Wilshire Council & Swindon Borough Councils' Local Outbreak Management Plans, 15) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R090 Heat wave The national outcome description is "daily maximum temperatures in excess of 28ºC & minimum temperatures in excess of 15ºC over most of a region of the UK for at least 2 weeks. 5 consecutive days will have maximum temperatures exceed 32 ºC". Threshold temperatures for heat waves in the South West of England are set by the Met Office & are 30°C daytime 15°C night-time (Department of

4 4

Very

Hig

h

1) LRF Severe Weather Guide covers the multi-agency response to a Heatwave event 2) NHS Heatwave Plan for England & associated Public Health campaign 3) The Met Office release Heat-Health Watch Alerts between 1st June & 15th September. The Heat-Health Watch system comprises four levels of


17/03/ 2021

44


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Date Reviewed

Health, 2014). A Level 2 Heat wave alert is triggered when the Met Office forecast a 60% chance of the above thresholds being met on at least two consecutive days & the intervening night.

response based upon threshold maximum daytime & minimum night-time temperatures. These thresholds vary by region, but an average threshold temperature is 30 °C by day & 15 °C overnight 4) Local liaison & assurance between health & social services re: contingency arrangements for vulnerable people e.g. elderly & young 5) LHRP Health Community Response Plan - Severe Weather Appendix & Impact Assessment 6) LRF Large Numbers of Stranded Passengers & Animals on the Transport Network for an Extended Period Plan 7) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R091 Low Temperatures and Heavy Snow

Snow falling & lying over multiple regions (e.g. SW England, SE England, London & the East of England) including substantial areas of low lying land (below 300m) for at least one week. After an initial fall of

4 4

Very

Hig

h

1) Met Office National Severe Weather Warning Service aims to give advance warning of periods of significant snow 2) Cold Weather Plan for England produced by Department of


18/08/ 2021

45


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Date Reviewed

snow there is further snow fall on & off for at least 7 days. Most lowland areas experience some falls in excess of 10cm, a depth of snow in excess of 30cm at a time, a depth of snow in excess of 30cm & a period of at least 7 consecutive days with daily mean temperature below -3ºC.

Health 3) National Highways weather notification system for Hauliers who have signed up 4) Met Office staff based in HE Centres between October to April each winter to provide up-to-date information 5) Health Community Response Plan 6) NHS Operational Pressures Escalation Levels 7) Multi agency work to reduce slips, trips & falls & improve bone health 8) 2018 Snow Debrief & Report including 4 x 4 Cell 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R092 Severe Space Weather

The reasonable worst-case scenario is based upon space weather of approximately the same magnitude as the Carrington Event of 1859, lasting for one to two weeks. This period of one to two weeks is made up of a number of different types of

3 3

Hig

h

1) UK Space Weather Preparedness Strategy (2015) 2) Activation of Operation Link in order to invoke LRF protocols 3) 999 fallback arrangements


21/10/ 2020

46


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Date Reviewed

solar phenomena, including coronal mass ejections, solar radiation storms, solar flares & solar radio bursts.

4) Met Office monitoring via daily forecast 5) LRF Telephony Exercises, including Exercise Exchange 6) Telephony providers national, regional & local plans 7) National Guidance & pre-prepared Media Release (Loss of Telecommunications) 8) Local Emergency Plans detailing Community Response Teams 9) Each Electricity Distribution Network Operator has robust, well developed & resilient emergency & contingency plans to recover the electricity network from such a failure 10) The Security of Supply standards (Electricity) 11) Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans including Uninterrupted Power Supplies, Generator, Generator Points, Solar &/or Wind Power

47


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12) Local Authority promotion of Business Continuity to Businesses & the Third & Voluntary sectors 13) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R093 Storms Storm force winds affecting multiple regions for at least 6 hours during a working day. Most inland, lowland areas experience mean speeds in excess of 55mph with gusts in excess of 85mph. Although the storm will be over in less than a day, disruption to infrastructure including power, communications, transport networks, homes & businesses could last for 1-4 days & for up to 5 days in remote rural locations.

4 3

Hig

h

1) Met Office operate National Severe Weather Warning Service which aims to give advance notice of severe gales, 2) National Highways weather notification system for Hauliers who have signed up, 3) Met Office staff based in HE Centres between October to April each winter to provide up-to-date information, 4) Health Community Response Plan, 5) Network Rail procedures in place for monitoring lineside vegetation & a programme in place for clearing threats where these have been identified, 6) Local Authority procedures regarding


17/03/ 2021

48


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Date Reviewed

dangerous buildings, 7) Local Authority procedures regarding dangerous trees, 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R094 Earthquake Earthquake activity that results in ground shaking with an intensity of 7 or above on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS) that causes damage to buildings & infrastructure. Ground shaking from earthquakes with this intensity level is sufficient to cause damage to buildings & infrastructure that could cause up to 5 fatalities & up to 50 casualties due to falling masonry or interior damage.

1 3

Mediu

m

1) Inspection and improvement regimes by relevant authorities for area under their remit - Rail property by Network Rail, - Highways – National Highways, - Local Authority Roads – Local Authority. 2) Wiltshire Fire and Rescue Service Plans & Procedures, including Urban Search & Rescue 3) Local Authority – Dynamic assessment & road closure procedures 4) Local Authority Building Control procedures & response capabilities 5) Swindon Major Incident Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 6) Wiltshire Major Incident Plan & Wiltshire Recovery


22/04/ 2021

49


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Plan 7) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

Human & Animal Disease

R095

Influenza Type Disease

An influenza pandemic is a worldwide outbreak of influenza, which occurs when a novel influenza A virus emerges that is different from current or recently circulating seasonal influenza strains. There is sustained human-to-human transmission. The novelty of the strain would mean that there is little or no immunity in the population which would allow the virus to spread rapidly among humans & in general terms makes the virus likely to be more virulent than seasonal influenza.

3 5

Very

Hig

h

1) LRF / LHRP Influenza Pandemic Plan. 2) Organisation Pandemic Influenza plans & Business Continuity Plans. 3) Regular training & exercises planned & carried out, including LHRP Exercise in November 2015. 4) Interagency working through LRF & LHRP. 5) LRF Excess Deaths Plan supported by Local Authority frameworks & plans. 6) Guidance on Flu Pandemic https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu 7) Global Influenza Surveillance & Response System. 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.


19/08/ 2020

50


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Date Reviewed

R096 The Growth & Spread of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR)

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is the resistance of microorganism to an antimicrobial (drug) that was originally effective for treatment of infections caused by it. Antibiotic resistance is a particular form of AMR. RWCS is that a pan-resistant, highly virulent, bacterial strain will enter or emerge in the UK. Resistance will spread between different bacteria through plasmid transfer, causing a number of different pan-resistant bacterial infections to develop & spread between people.

3 3

Hig

h

1) Local Authority Local Outbreak Management Plans (LOMP) 2) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides


21/07/ 2021

R097 Emerging Infectious Disease

Over the past 30 years, more than 30 new or newly recognised diseases have been identified. Most of these have been zoonoses i.e. diseases that are naturally transmissible, directly or indirectly, from animals to humans. The RWCS is a new or newly recognised outbreak of a high consequence infectious disease which is airborne, spreading rapidly from person-to-person, & making contact tracing difficult.

3 4

Very

Hig

h

1) Routine Surveillance conducted by UKHSA National/Regional/Local 2) World Health Organisation’s International Alerting arrangements 3) World Health Organisation’s outbreak response framework 4) DH & UKHSA National Plans & Guidance 5) Central Government Guidance (by department/sector)


21/07/ 2021

51


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6) NHS local escalation plans 7) Dept of Health/NHS escalation plan 8) Public Health England monitoring of Notifiable disease reports 9) LRF Ebola Preparedness Exercise 25th November 2014 10) Guidance available from the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in London 11) UKHSA Returning workers scheme 12) UKHSA guidance on contact tracing 13) LRF & LHRP Vulnerable People Plan 14) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R098 Outbreak of Exotic Notifiable Disease in Animals (including birds) (Non-Zoonotic)

There is a constant but low risk of an incursion of an exotic notifiable disease into the UK. The risk likelihood will vary depending on the season & disease status in other countries. Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD) has been assessed as having the greatest potential impact but other exotic notifiable diseases like

2 3

Mediu

m

1) National plan - Defra's Contingency Plan for Exotic Animal Diseases (this covers arrangements for dealing with a range of exotic animal diseases, including Foot & Mouth Disease, Avian Influenza, Rabies & Bluetongue) 2) The Cabinet Office


17/11/ 2021

52


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Avian Influenza (AI or bird flu) are more likely to occur.

Bulletin on “Co-ordination of the Multi-agency Response to an Animal Disease Outbreak in England” 3) The Animal & Plant Health Agency (APHA) surveillance & management of disease controls 4) Animal carcass disposal & infected premise clearing protocols 5) Groundwater & contaminated land procedures & protocols 6) Wiltshire Integrated Emergency Plan, Swindon Major Incident Guide & Swindon Recovery Plan 7) LRF Animal Diseases Guide 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

RL098a Outbreak of Exotic Notifiable Disease in Animals (including birds) (e.g. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), rabies and West Nile virus) (Zoonotic)

This risk covers diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans which are called zoonotic diseases. A separate risk Assessment R098 Non-Zoonotic Animal Diseases covers diseases that affect animals are not transmissible to humans. The most serious zoonotic disease is

4 3

Hig

h

1) Department of Health Plans & Guide including “A National Framework for responding to an influenza pandemic". 2) National plan - Defra's Contingency Plan for Exotic Animal Diseases (this covers arrangements for


17/11/ 2021

53


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Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza which drives the impact assessments. Potential human health threat from Pandemic Influenza is covered under R095 Pandemic Influenza. Assessment for an outbreak of Zoonotic diseases is based on the need to cull & dispose of up to 30 million poultry across GB. Loss of disease-free status resulting in EU & third country import bans on live birds & poultry products. Local & regional control zones will be imposed prohibiting the movement of all poultry to slaughter.

dealing with a range of exotic animal diseases, including Foot & Mouth Disease, Avian Influenza, Rabies & Bluetongue) 3) The Cabinet Office Bulletin on “Co-ordination of the Multi-agency Response to an Animal Disease Outbreak in England”. 4) UK ZADI Group (UK Zoonoses Animal Diseases & Infections Group) monitors and reports on Zoonotic disease activity. 5) The Animal & Plant Health Agency (APHA) surveillance & management of disease controls 6) UKHSA Guidelines for Investigation of Zoonotic Disease & Table of Zoonotic Diseases. 7) DEFRA Contingency Plan for Exotic Notifiable Diseases of Animals 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contingency-plan-for-exotic-notifiable-diseases-of-animals-2016 8) The World Health

54


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Organisation has worked with partners & helped develop several alert systems including GOARN (Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network) and GLEWS (Global Early Warning System for Major Animal Diseases including Zoonoses). 9) Animal carcass disposal & infected premise clearing protocols 5) Groundwater & contaminated land procedures & protocols 10) LRF Animal Diseases Guide 11) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

RL14 Localised meningitis outbreak

Localised outbreak of a disease, which could cause less than 5 fatalities & up to 20 (cases)/casualties, with no variation in likelihood between localities

3 2

Mediu

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1) Sources of infection are regulated under occupational health & safety regulations & monitored by the Health & Safety Executive or Local Authority offices 2) Reactive response to outbreaks also possible through occupational health & safety regime 3) Known disease &


21/07/ 2021

55


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Date Reviewed

appropriate treatment regimens are in place 4) NHS Incident Response Plans 5) Continuous National surveillance programme in place by UKHSA 6) Plans for the mobilisation of prophylactic medicines 7) Local Authority Local Outbreak Management Plans (LOMP) 8) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

Societal

R100 Industrial Action by the Prison Officers Association

Industrial Action by operational prison staff, leading to shortfall of staff available for duty for more than 24 hours. In the event of a significant shortfall in the number of operational staff available, establishments will have to be operated by small numbers of governor grades, other operational staff & officers not participating in industrial action.

4 2

Mediu

m

1) National Prison Contingency Plan & locally Wiltshire Police Plan 2) National Plans include Military involvement 3) Plans to manage the impact on policing Nationally & locally 4) LRF Partner Agency business continuity plans 5) Police have dedicated Prison Liaison Officer & Health are embedded on a day-to-day basis 6) Local consultation with Prison Governor & Police

Wiltshire Police

18/08/ 2021

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Date Reviewed

through the Wiltshire Criminal Justice Board 7) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

R101 Industrial Action - Public Transport

Strike action by key workers on the national rail network or the London Underground, such as Network Rail's electrical control room staff or train drivers in the train operating companies, resulting in near-total shutdown of the passenger rail network nationwide or 75% of the London Underground network. Severe disruption would be limited to 2 or 3 days per 4-week pay period, which if it lasted for a 3 month campaign could see up to 10 days lost to strikes with adjacent days also suffering disruption.

5 3

Hig

h

1) Network Rail Advice to Fire Service protocol for reporting trains stored with dangerous goods on board. 2) Media Arrangements in place by Railway Companies for Warning & Informing. 3) Constant Monitoring of industrial action by Resilient Emergency Division South West (RED South West) 4) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides

Great Western Railway

18/08/ 2021

R102 Actual or Threatened Significant Disruption to the Distribution of Fuel by Road, Including as a result of Industrial Action by Fuel Tanker Drivers

National strike by fuel drivers with picketing of distribution sites lasting for a prolonged period, (e.g. two four day strikes in a period of 10 days). Retail filling stations, depending on the extent of the disruption & their locations, & assuming no panic buying would likely run out of fuel in 4 to 5 days. High Throughput sites

3 3

Hig

h

1) NEP-F (National Emergency Plan - Fuel) 2) LRF Local Fuel Plan 3) Individual agency business continuity arrangements 4) OP ESCALIN 5) A walkthrough of the LRF Fuel Plan & the LRF Fuel Disruption Plan was


19/08/ 2020

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such as supermarket filling stations & motorway sites would likely run out of fuel within 24 hours.

completed on 15th February 2017 & the two plans merged into the LRF Fuel Supply Disruption Plan which was walked through on the 19th April 2017. 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

R103 Actual or Threatened Significant Disruption to Fuel Supplies as a Result of an Insolvency at a Key Refinery or Terminals

Insolvency & liquidation of company owning infrastructure, which could lead to: Liquidation of the company & closure of the site. The primary impact is disruption to the production/supply of refined products (road transport, aviation & heating fuels) from the refinery/terminal.

1 2

Low

1) NEP-F (National Emergency Plan - Fuel) 2) LRF Local Fuel Plan 3) Individual agency business continuity arrangements 4) OP ESCALIN 5) A walkthrough of the LRF Fuel Plan & the LRF Fuel Disruption Plan was completed on 15th February 2017 & the two plans merged into the LRF Fuel Supply Disruption Plan which was walked through on the 19th April 2017. 6) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.


19/08/ 2020

R104 Public Disorder Large scale public disorder at site(s) in a single city, or in multiple cities, occurring concurrently over several days. Disorder on this scale will

3 3

Hig

h

1) National Prison Contingency Plan & locally Wiltshire Police Plan, 2) Engagement with Prisons by LRF partners,

Wiltshire Police

17/02/ 2021

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significantly challenge Government & the emergency services. The likely outcomes of such events would see criminal damage to public & private property, increased acquisitive crime, arson, rioting, looting & reduced community cohesion. Injuries would be expected amongst both members of the public & emergency services staff. There is also the possibility of fatalities. Health Services would come under increased pressure.

3) National Plans include Military involvement, 4) Police Community Tension monitoring, 5) Plans to manage the impact on policing Nationally & locally, 6) LRF Partner Agency business continuity plans, 7) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Plans & Guides.

R105 Influx of British Nationals

Influx of destitute/vulnerable British Nationals who are not normally resident in the UK & cannot be accommodated by friends or family. Up to 10,000 British Nationals not normally resident in the UK returning to the UK within a 3-4 weeks-time period following a conventionally war, widespread civil unrest or sustained terrorism campaign against British & other Western Nationals.

4 2

Mediu

m

1) Continued monitoring by UK Government & Security agencies around international tensions, 2) Voluntary services assistance plans, 3) Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) Plans in place to enlist the assistance of UK Police Service if incident happens 4) Routine Surveillance conducted by UKHSA National/Regional/Local & Health Protection Unit

Wiltshire Police

17/02/ 2021

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routine surveillance of outbreaks in conjunction with the World Health Organisation, 5) World Health Organisation’s International Alerting arrangements 6) World Health Organisation’s outbreak response framework, 7) Health Protection Unit Outbreak Control Plan, 8) UKHSA Port Health Plan, 9) NHS Major Incident Plans, 10) LHRP community disease plan, 11)Wilshire Council & Swindon Borough Councils' Local Outbreak Management Plans, 12) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

RHL43 Public Sector Industrial Action

Industrial action in public sector including health, Central & local government, health, education & blue light services (typically lasting for one to three days industrial action, with a week between repeat action) can lead to disruption at the

4 2

Mediu

m

1) Agency Business Continuity Plans 2) Central Governments Contingency Plans 3) Agency agreements with Unions re exempting "Life & Limb" services from Industrial Action


22/04/ 2021

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regional or national level. 4) LRF Monthly Executives Teleconference 5) LRF Working on Weekdays initiative 6) Regular MHCLG updates on industrial action 7) Local Health Resilience Partnership Health Community Response Plan 8) LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide (EMAP) 9) Appropriate LRF & LHRP Guides & Plans

RHL44 Gold Command Resilience

Gold Command Resilience during an extended or geographically extensive incident

2 2

Mediu

m

1) Exercise programme to test strategic response arrangements. 2) Individual agency major incident and business continuity plans. 3) Monthly LRF Executive Teleconferences 4) Three LRF Executive Meetings per year 5) Op Link 6) Executive Training sessions in the Training & Exercising Schedule 7) Remote Working by SCG Members & support staff


22/04/ 2021

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Time Limited Risks that have expired

As Time Limited Risks become non-relevant, they are moved from the list of current risks & Risk Matrix to this section of the

document for information.


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TL002 Olympic torch relay & related Olympic events (Removed after Olympics & Paralympics completed).

Salisbury has been chosen to host an Evening Celebration event as part of the London 2012 Olympic Torch relay & the Torch relay will be going through both Swindon & parts of Wiltshire. Other towns, villages & places of outstanding natural beauty, sports venues & community hubs visited on the days of the relays have been announced in a second, more detailed route announcement. Whilst Swindon & Wiltshire do not host any of the venues of actual games, Wiltshire provides two training facilities. As Swindon & Wiltshire lie within the London-Weymouth-Bath triangle it is expecting an influx of overseas visitors shortly before, during & after the games. The Olympics is both a magnet & an amplifier of organisational & operational risks.

5 4

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Hig

h…

.

●Special Olympic public event groups are intended to be set up to manage the events to ensure public safety, including: traffic management plans, evacuation plans, proper licencing where required etc, ●Business continuity & HR policies relating to managing staff levels & leave, ●Director of Public Heath advice re: alcohol use, policing of sale of alcohol & public houses, Community Safety teams activities, liaison & support between partners during incidents, ●LRF & agency plans, including the Media Guide & Warning &

Wiltshire Council

Assessed on 25/07/ 2011

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The event itself increases the probability & consequence of existing hazards & threats, at the same time as generating its own unique set of risks. There are also two other major events planned in 2012: The Royal Diamond Jubilee & the European Football Championships in Poland & Ukraine, which will both have an impact on resources & demand for services. There may be a need for "Blue Light" resources to be diverted from parts of the Country not involved in the Olympics or the Torch relay to those with a greater involvement, with a potential impact on response times.

Informing protocols

TL001 Structural Change & Capacity within agencies (Removed on 23/10/2013 as change is now felt to be part of Risk Management in the organisations making up the LRF).

There could be an inability to agree collective priorities caused by differences in individual agencies capacity. Lack of engagement by partners caused by financial, organisational, resource & structural change pressures may lose focus during the change process. Continuity & resilience not being achieved

5 2

Mediu

m…

….

●LRF Secretariat provision in place & LRF Manager assisting in the alignment of responders’ priorities, ●Individual organisations Audit, Risk & Performance Management functions, ●Project Management & Project Management of

Wiltshire Police

Assessed on 11/01/ 2012 & discussed on 17/09/ 2013

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caused by a lack of financial, business process & audit structures or loss of LRF Secretariat provision through removal of funding by agencies. Risk that an increase in workload of member agencies caused by central government-driven reforms. LRF unable to operate effectively & unable to deliver on its objectives. Inability to plan for locally identified priorities. LRF & its constituent agencies are less effective in preparing for a multi-agency response to an emergency.

the change agenda(s)

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Glossary of Terms

BASIS Regulations

Storage of Agricultural chemicals & transport of dangerous goods

BCM Business Continuity Management

CAT Category

CBRNe Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear & Explosive

CCA Civil Contingencies Act 2004

CCG Clinical Commissioning Groups (Took over work of Primary Care Trusts on their abolition on 31/03/2013)

CO Cabinet Office

COMAH Control of Major Accident Hazards

CRR Community Risk Register

DEFRA The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

DH Department of Health

EA Environment Agency

EMAP LRF Emergency Multi-Agency Procedures Guide

EP Emergency Planning

FCO British Foreign & Commonwealth Office

FRS Fire & Rescue Service

GLEWS Global Early Warning System for Major Animal Diseases including Zoonoses

GO Government Office

GOARN Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network

GWAS Great Western Ambulance Service (From 01/02/2013 was acquired by South West Ambulance Service NHS Foundation Trust SWASFT or SWAS)

GWH Great Western Hospital

HA Highways Agency (From 1st April 2015 Highways England (HE))

HE Highways England (Superseded) (Prior to 1st April 2015 Highways Agency) and replaced by National Highways on 19th August 2021.

HO Home Office

HPA Health Protection Agency (From 01/04/2013 Public Health England)

HPU Health Protection Unit

HR Human Resources

HSE The Health & Safety Executive

ID Identification

LA Local Authority

LEA Local Education Authority

LGD Lead Government Department

LHA Local Highways Authority

LHRP Local Health Resilience Partnership

LOMP Local Outbreak Management Plan

LRF Local Resilience Forum

MACA Military Aid to the Civil Authorities

Met Office Formerly called the Meteorological Office

National National Highways replaced Highways England on 19th

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Highways August 2021.

NEP-F National Emergency Plan for Fuel

NHS National Health Service

PCT Primary Care Trust (Abolished on 31/03/2013 & work taken over by Clinical Commissioning Groups CCGs)

PHE Public Health England (Prior to 01/04/2013 Health Protection Agency) (Superseded) see UKHSA on 01/04/2021

PPE Personal Protective Equipment

REDs Resilience Emergency Division (South West)

RC Rest Centre

RCCC Regional Civil Contingencies Committee

RRT Regional Resilience Team

SBC Swindon Borough Council

SCG Strategic Coordinating Group

SITREP Situation Report

SSRI Site Specific Risk Information

STAC Science & Technology Advice Cell

SWAS or SWAST

South West Ambulance Service NHS Foundation Trust

UKSHA UK Health Security Agency (founded in April 2021)

UK ZADI Group UK Zoonoses Animal Diseases & Infections Group

W&I Warning & Informing

WFRS Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service (Superseded) (from 1 April 2016 Dorset & Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service when Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service merged with Dorset Fire & Rescue Service)

Further Information

For further information about the risk assessment process or the community risk

register, please contact the Wiltshire & Swindon Local Resilience Forum, Chair of the

Risk Assessment Sub-Group:

Alistair Ireland

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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