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Wind Forecast Integration at MISO Kris Ruud Sr. Manager Resource Integration And Regional Operations Enginnering 1
Wind Forecast Integration at MISO
Kris Ruud
Sr. Manager Resource Integration
And Regional Operations Enginnering
1
MISO is one of the largest and most technologically advanced grid operators in the world
MISO (Inc.
South)
High Voltage Transmission - miles
65,170
Installed Generation - MW
162,296
Installed Generation - # of Units
1,431
Peak System Demand - MW
133,576
MISO’s role is focused on a few key value-added areas
Provide independent
transmission system access
• Equal and non-discriminatory access
• Compliance with FERC requirements
• Improved regional coordination
• Enhanced system reliability
• Lowest cost unit commitment, dispatch and congestion
management
Deliver improved reliability
coordination through efficient
market operations
• Integrated system planning
• Broader incorporation of renewables Coordinate regional planning
• Market price / value discovery
• Encourage prudent infrastructure investment
• Provide wholesale alignment for retail policy
implementation
Provide price information
transparency
What We Do Implications
MISO was formed to address federal requirements, but growth has been based on value creation
2013
• Entergy
Region
MISO’s capacity is comprised primarily of coal and natural gas units…
MISO Nameplate Capacity
176,454 MW
Coal (40%)
Gas / Oil (40%)
Renewables (12%)
Nuclear (8%)
Wind (65%)
Hydro (30%)
Biomass (3%)
MISO Nameplate Capacity –
Renewables
21,174 MW
Other (2%)
…but wind resources are growing rapidly
1,112 2,462
4,861
7,625 8,601
10,369
12,270 13,035 13,540
15,040 16,540
18,040 19,540
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Registered nameplate wind capacity in the MISO region
(in MWs)
ACTUALS FORECAST
MISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW
Wind’s rapid growth is fueled by MISO’s rich wind resource base...
Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m
Source: Wind resource estimates developed by AWS Truepower
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…and renewable portfolio standards and goals adopted in MISO states
MT
15% by 2025
ND
10% by 2015
SD
10% by 2015
MN Xcel: 30% by 2030
25% by 2025
WI
10% by 2015 MI
10% by
2015 IA
105 MW
MO
15% by 2021
IL
25% by
2025
IN
10% by
2025
KY
No RPS
State with RPS Mandate
State with RPS Goal
State with No RPS Mandate or Goal MISO Existing Wind = 12,270 MW
MISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW
Source: MISO, DSIRE – Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency
Inherent characteristics of wind have significant operational impacts on MISO
• Variability of wind
• Poor correlation of
wind and load
• Transmission
congestion caused by
wind location
• Congestion
management
• Over and under
commitment
• Ramp management
• Surplus generation
events
• Market dispatch of
intermittent units (DIRs)
• Enhanced wind
forecasting
• Future ramp capability
enhancement
Driver Market Issue Tools
3,866
3,026 3,139
3,450
3,235
2,359
1,927
1,568
2,515
3,047
4,076
3,060
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Monthly Energy Contribution from Wind
(in GWh) 4,467
Wind is variable by month…
Source: MISO Real-Time Operations and Transmission Asset Management Departments
8.9% 7.7% 7.6% 9.2% 8.6% 6.1% 4.4% 3.6% 6.8% 8.2% 10.5% 6.1% 6.9% Wind Energy as a %
of MISO Energy
Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, Feb 2014
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13
Note: Weekends and holidays are considered off-peak and are excluded from the graph.
Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, January 2013 - April 2013
…and wind is variable day-to-day and doesn’t reliably correlate with load
Daily Wind Capacity Factor % for Peak Hours
1/1/2013 – 4/30/2013
Wind Forecasts at MISO
• Developed ~2008-2009
• Initially a hourly forecast for the subsequent ~36 hours
– Assist MISO in making unit commitment decisions
– Assist MISO in evaluating regional flow patterns
• Short term forecast (5 minute intervals for the next hour) developed as part of DIR deployment (~2010-2011).
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Challenges prior to MISO dispatching intermittent resources (DIRs) • Rapid increase in wind penetration
– Transmission expansion lagged wind expansion
– Deployment in areas with little transmission
– Increasing need for manual curtailments to manage congestion
• Challenges of manual curtailments – Highly manual process; time consuming for reliability coordinator
– Tracking firm vs. non-firm transmission service
– Manual curtailments not accounted for in security constrained economic dispatch resulting in loss of price transparency
– Manual curtailments less economic than automated security constrained economic dispatch
– Adverse settlement impacts on wind participants
• Renewable generation is treated like any other generation resource in the market
• DIRs can participate in the real-time energy market
• DIRs can automatically be dispatched up to a forecasted limit based on an offer price and system conditions. – Participants submit a short term wind forecast instead of a hourly
economic maximum like other generation resources
– This enables wind to submit offers and receive dispatch instructions rather than be manually curtailed when transmission constraints limit renewable energy generation to reach the broader market region
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) design features
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources enhance system wide operational
and market efficiency and improve market transparency
• DIRs launched on June 1, 2011
• Registration required as of March, 2013 with limited exceptions
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) registration
9,758
10,680 10,601 10,791
11,857 12,444 12,270 12,238
1,208 2,037 3,290
4,024 4,826
6,084 6,283
9,523
Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013
Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW) Registered as DIRs Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW)
Jun-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13
DIRs Heavily Dependent on Short Term Forecast
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Improved wind forecasting will allow for improved operations, but wind forecasting is not likely to become an exact science
MISO Forecasting Accuracy: 1/1/2013 – 12/31/2013
DA RT
Error (MW)
MAPE (%)
Error (MW)
MAPE (%)
w/o dispatch down
593 4.87 463 3.80
w/ dispatch down
596 4.89 504 4.14
Wind variability has the potential to create a ramping challenge which may require improved tools and new market products to manage
• The current wind variability and profile impact ramp requirements as significantly as net scheduled interchange – Wind capacity levels expected from the region’s Renewable Portfolio Standards will
dramatically increase the operational difficulties
– However, MISO’s large balancing area and geographic diversity help minimize the issue at current wind penetration levels
• Current operational methods to manage this ramp include – Load and wind forecasting
– Pre-commitment of units
– Use of fast-start units and spinning reserves to manage unexpected variability
• Improved operational and market methods under development – Improved load and wind forecasting
– 30-minute reserve products
– Ramping service product
