Wind in the UK – a growing market

Dr Gordon Edge

Director of Policy

RenewableUK

A word on who we are…

Wind starting to deliver

2004:250MW 2005:440MW 2006:630MW 2007:430MW2008:867MW2009:1,077MW

Operational wind farms

• 4,491MW– 3,450MW onshore– 1,041MW offshore

• 2,872 turbines

Ttt

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H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L

K

Ttt

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Wind farms under construction

• 1,656MW– 537MW onshore– 1,119MW offshore

• 614 turbinesH

H

H

H

H

H

Wind farms consented

• Considerable capacity consented but yet to start construction– 4,357MW onshore wind – 3,127MW offshore wind

• 13,600MW in total built, building or ready to build

The onshore planning logjam

• ~8,000MW of onshore capacity is built, building or ready to build

• However, nearly 20,000MW has entered the planning system since 2002

• ~2,500MW rejected• 7,700MW being held up in planning• Aviation issues a key problem

Moving ahead onshore

• Projects consented may still have barriers to delivery– Planning conditions may need to be discharged– Grid connections may still be awaited– Finance may not be in place

• Nonetheless, we anticipate delivery of ~1GW/year for the next five years– 2010 may see a dip in onshore delivery over 2009, mostly due to

finance issues

The UK has a healthy offshore pipeline

STW6.4 GW

Wind Farm Capacity (MW)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Installed UnderConstruction/Contracted

Consented Planned

10.000

20,000

47GW of leases in total…

Round3

32 GW

Extensions~ 1 – 2 GW

…But when are they delivered?

Near term delivery quite clear

Source: UK Offshore Wind: Staying on Track, report by Garrad Hassan for BWEA, June 2009

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Inst

alle

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pac

ity G

W

Crown Estate

A healthy industry

Low case

Possible offshore delivery post-2015

Crown Estate

20% attrition, some projects delayed by 1 year

30% attrition, most projects delayed by 2 years

Installed in 2020:• High: 45GW; Medium: 24GW; Low: 14GW

Some uncertainties

• The Election– Unclear what effect a change of Government might have– May be changes in support mechanism, planning

• Implementation of ‘Connect & Manage’– Implications for connection, particularly in Scotland

• Implementation of the OFTO regime– Affects offshore projects particularly around 2013-16

• Charging for transmission services– Potential move to per MWh charges instead of per kW per year

So…

• Despite some uncertainty, the UK is moving to a market of:– ~1GW/year onshore, 2010-20– ~1GW/year offshore, 2010-15– ~3-4GW/year offshore, 2015-20

Let’s get to work!