1
WIND POWER FORECASTING AND
POWER DISPATCH INTEGRATION IN
INDIAN CONTEXT
P.R.RAGHURAM
Presentation Plan• Southern Region Power system Overview• Review of Wind Power Generation in SR• Issues to be addressed for better system
operation• The way Indian Power system operates vis-
a-vis in a developed country• Real time operational issues• Market issues • Conclusion
2
SR STATES – POWER SYSTEM STATISTICSANDHRA PRADESH
INSTALLED CAPACITY – 8487 MW
MAX DEMAND MET – 7547 MW
DAILY CONSUMPTION MAX –166 MU
DAILY CONSUMPTION AVG –142 MU
CONSUMER PROFILE –
INDS -27%, DOM-22%, COMM-5%, IRRI-39% & OTHERS-7%
KARNATAKA
INSTALLED CAPACITY – 6122 MW
MAX DEMAND MET – 5445 MW
DAILY CONSUMPTION MAX –112 MU
DAILY CONSUMPTION AVG – 90 MU
CONSUMER PROFILE –
INDS -26%, DOM-19%, COMM-7%, IRRI-39% & OTHERS-9%
KERALA
INSTALLED CAPACITY – 2280 MW
MAX DEMAND MET – 2426 MW
DAILY CONSUMPTION MAX –39 MU
DAILY CONSUMPTION AVG –34 MU
CONSUMER PROFILE –
INDS -34%, DOM-44%, COMM-13%, IRRI-2%& OTHERS-7%
TAMIL NADU
INSTALLED CAPACITY – 6579 MW
MAX DEMAND MET – 7560 MW
DAILY CONSUMPTION MAX –155 MU
DAILY CONSUMPTION AVG –131 MU
CONSUMER PROFILE –
INDS -39%, DOM-25%, COMM-7%, IRRI-24% & OTHERS-5%
ANDHRA PRADESHPOPULATION :- 7.6 CRORES
AREA :- 275 (‘000 SQ KM)
NO OF CONSUMERS :- 162 LAKHS
PER CAPITA CONS. :- 719 UNITS
MAIN AGRICULTURE CROP :- RICE
CLIMATIC CONDITION :- HOT AND HOT & HUMID
SR STATES – GEOGRAPHYKARNATAKA
POPULATION :- 5.3 CRORES
AREA :- 192 (‘000 SQ KM)
NO OF CONSUMERS :- 105 LAKHS
PER CAPITA CONS. :- 642 UNITS
MAIN AGRICULTURE CROP :-COFFEE & RAGI
CLIMATIC CONDITION :- HOT AND HOT & HUMID
KERALAPOPULATION :- 3.2 CRORES
AREA :- 39 (‘000 SQ KM)
NO OF CONSUMERS :- 61 LAKHS
PER CAPITA CONS. :- 386 UNITS
MAIN AGRICULTURE CROP :-COCONUT & SPICES
CLIMATIC CONDITION :- HUMID
TAMIL NADUPOPULATION :- 6.2 CRORES
AREA :- 130 (‘000 SQ KM)
NO OF CONSUMERS :- 152 LAKHS
PER CAPITA CONS. :- 866 UNITS
MAIN AGRICULTURE CROP :-SUGAR CANE & OIL SEEDS
CLIMATIC CONDITION :- HOT AND HOT & HUMID
3
GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SR
1947
5
1983
0
2030
4
2129
8
2213
3
2298
3
2417
3
2616
3 2850
1
2952
6 3273
3 3603
1
10 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
2 5 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
YEARS - - - >
IN MW
INSTALLED CAPACITY IN SR
36784 (100%)
880 (2%)
4337 (12%)
4462 (12%)
15880 (43%)
11226 (31%)TOTAL
7986.265---4308.8653012.26387.01278.13IPP
9329.58880---359.588090---CENTRAL SECTOR
32.5------32.5------PONDICHERRY
5549.585---19.355422.8829702137.35TAMILNADU
2071.725---2.025234.6---1835.1KERALA
4991.6---4.55127.814703389.25KARNATAKA
6822.86---22722962.53586.36ANDHRA PRADESH
TOTALNUCLEARWIND/OTHERSGAS/DIESELTHERMALHYDROAGENCY
AS ON 01.06.2006
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4
15880 (45%)
11219 (31%)830 (2%)
3655 (10%)
4447 (12%)
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������������
��� ����� !��
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND/OTHERS
NUCLEAR
GAS
KHAMMAM
VIJAYAWADANAGARJUNASAGAR
GAZUWAKA
HYDERABAD
RAICHUR
GOOTY
HOODY
SALEM
UDUMALPET
TRICHUR
MADURAI
TRICHY
MADRAS
NEYVELI
CUDDAPAHDAVANAGERE
RAMAGUNDAM
BANGALORE
MUNIRABAD
PP
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
PP
P
KOLAR
63
HOSUR
1
60
P
NELLORE
NELAMANGALA
KURNOOL
KALPAKKA
SIMHADRI
HIRIYUR
TALAGUPPA
MAMIDIPALLY
SRI SAILAM
-- OF NTPC
-- OF ANDHRA PRADESH
-- OF TAMIL NADU
-- OF NLC
-- OF POWERGRID
400KV SUB-STATIONS IN SR
NEYVELI TPS I (EXP)
4251522TOTAL
9216TN
22KER
12156KAR
19298AP
TOTALOTHERSSTATEPOWERGRID
TRIVENDRUM
NARENDRA
VEMAGIRIGMR
JEGRUPADU EXTN
MEHA BOOB NAGAR
CHITTOOR
-- OF NPC
KAIGA
MYSORE
-- OF KARNATAKA
ALMATHI
5
TRANSMISSION IN SOUTHERN INDIA
ABOUT 2800 CKM OF 400 KV LINES ADDED IN THE PAST 2 YEARS
71404102161649063701526424452TOTAL
32360102203720606012360132/110 KV
2692636662702650759010050220/230 KV
13506985016142042400 KV
TOTALCGSTNKERKARAPVOLTAGE
LEVEL
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
NU
MB
ER
OF
DIS
TUR
BA
NC
ES
----
----
>
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
MAJOR MINOR
NO DISTURBANCES DESPITE LOSING ENTIRE SUPER GENERATING PLANTS LIKE
RAMAGUNDAM,VIJAYAWADA,KOTHAGUDEM, NORTH CHENNAI, SHARAVATHY ,NAGJHARI ETC
MAJOR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES SINCE 1994
6
47.0
47.5
48.0
48.5
49.0
49.5
50.0
50.5
51.0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95% OF TIME --->
FRE
Q IN
HZ
--->
2002-032003-04
2004-05
2005-06
�����������������������������������������
�����������������
48.4251.021.0796.812.122005-06
48.1851.170.4497.302.302003-04
47.6951.372.0148.5149.482002-03
48.6250.900.1798.700.132004-05
MinMax50.5 & Above
49.0 & <50.5<49.0
COMPARISION OF BANGALORE VOLTAGE ON TYPICAL DAYS IN LAST FOUR YEARS
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
0:01
1:01
2:01
3:01
4:01
5:01
6:01
7:01
8:01
9:01
10:0
1
11:0
1
12:0
1
13:0
1
14:0
1
15:0
1
16:0
1
17:0
1
18:0
1
19:0
1
20:0
1
21:0
1
22:0
1
23:0
1
TIME IN HRS --->
VO
LTA
GE
IN K
V --
->
2005
2002
2004
2003
7
GENERATING UNITS IN SOUTHERN REGION
� �� �� �� �!��!��!��!��
��������!��!��!��!��GENERATORS ABOVE 1000 MW
GENERATORS 500 – 1000 MW
GENERATORS BELOW 500 MW
TYPICAL
GENERATOR
SPREAD
IN SR
15
8
CGS
16538193848TOTAL
8715162927HYDRO (>50 MW)
2410329GAS/THERMAL (100-150 MW)
4513710THERMAL (200-250 MW)
102THERMAL (500 MW)
TOTALTNKERKARAPUNIT CAPACITY
- HYDRO
- THERMAL
- GAS / NAPTHA
- NUCLEAR
LOAD 500-1500 MW
LOAD 200-500 MW
TYPICAL
LOAD
SPREAD
IN SR
8
KHAMMAM
VIJAYAWADA
N’SAGAR
VISAKHAPATNAM
HYDERABAD
RAICHUR
GOOTY
HOODY
SALEM
TRICHUR
MADURAI
TRICHY
SPBDR
NLC II
CUDDAPAH
DVNGRE(KN)
KAIGA
RAMAGUNDAM
CHANDRAPUR
PONDICHERY
BANGALORE
SIRSI
MUNIRABAD
KOLAR
PALLOM
KAYANKULAMEDAMON
TALCHER
HOSUR
KRNL(AP)
NARENDRA
TRIVANDRUM
HIRIYUR
NLC -1 EXP.
NELLORE
JEYPORE
NELAMANGALA
KOZIKODE
MYSORE
ARASURPUGALUR
MELKTYR
ALMTI(TN)
UDUMALPET + 500kV HVDC BIPOLE LINE 2 738 ckm
400kV LINES EXISTING 8360 ckm
400kV LINES UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2400 ckm
400kV LINES PROPOSED 4000 ckm
220kV LINES EXISTING 366 ckm
OTHER UTILITIES LINE
+ 500kV HVDC BIPOLE TERMINAL AT KOLAR 1
+ 500kV HVDC BACK TO BACK AT VIZAG 1
+ 500kV HVDC BACK TO BACK AT VIZAG 1
400/220kV EXISTING S/S 18+1(GIS)
400/220kV S/S UNDER CONSTRUCTION 3
400/220kV S/S PROPOSED 6
LEGEND
NLC II EXP
WARANGAL
SRSLM(AP)
SOUTHERN REGION GRID MAP
178
200 189
150
317
279
242
155 26
7
308
258
61
221
181
151
341
189
78
47
130
127
130
17214
164
178
182
BAHOOR53
126
6951
178
97 211
302
172
115
1369
174
110 158
160
98
210
10
254
50
215
136
50
43
30
225
140
217
43
78
35
TALAGUPPA
HASSAN
COCHIN
TIRUNELVELI
KUDAKULAM APP
KARRIKUDI
-
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
HOUR ---->
DE
MA
ND
IN M
W--
->
TYPICAL LOAD CURVE OF SR
WINTER
MONSOON
SUMMER
EVENING PEAK
WEATHERRESERVOIR CONSUMPTION
9
• Typical day wind generation trend curve• Daily Maximum,Minimum and Avg wind
generation for six month• Wind generation plot for the month of July• Wind generation plot for the month of May• A typical day frequency plot
10
Issues to be addressed for smooth integration of wind power with the grid and better system operation
1. Real time system operation Issues• Issues like Reserve capability,• accurate short term forecasting of wind
2. Market issues• Participation of Wind Generator in Trade• Imbalance Settlement system
3. Connection issues– Impact of wind generation on system stability
4. Grid infrastructure issues– congestion management
5. Contribution of wind power to ancillary service6. Institutional issues
11
Real time system operation Issues
• Difference between our grid & developed country grid
• Managing Load Generation Balance during normal System operation
• Managing Load generation Balance during High Wind power integration
Difference between our grid & developed country grid
• Our grid is both Energy and Capacity deficit power system
• Our grid does not have spinning reserve or secondary /tertiary reserve
• We work on sliding frequency between 49Hz and 50.5 Hz
• Spot market is yet to be fully developed• We do not have ancillary service such as
– Market for energy imbalance– Load following service
• Following service is not considered for payments– Black Start– Reactive energy generation /absorption by generator
• We have a scientific settlement system in ABT which is a local solution for the above mentioned local problems
12
Managing Load Generation Balance during normal System operation
• Load generation imbalance occur due to– Generators tripping– Transmission line outages– Tools available to system operator to overcome this
• Using available reserve• Free governor mode of operation of generator• Special System protection scheme• Automatic under frequency load relief operation
• Load generation imbalance will also occur due tocontinuous variation in demand and lot of tools are available to predict the same in advance and take corrective action
GENERATION vs FREQUENCY FOR
10
30
50
70
90
08:2
1
09:2
1
10:2
1
11:2
1
TIME IN HH:MM ----->
MW
----
->
49.00
49.20
49.40
49.60
49.80
50.00
50.20
50.40
FRE
Q IN
HZ
----
->FREE GOVERNOR MODE OF OPERATION Typical graph
SHARAVATHI -1
FREQ DROP FROM 49.72 HZ TO 49.27 HZ
i.e. ~ 0.45HZ
13
DEEP VALLEY
DEEP VALLEY
SHARP
PEAK
Managing Load generation Balance during High Wind power integration• Un predictable variation in Power output
its effect on– Predominantly Hydro system– Predominantly Thermal system– Pump storage system– Solution
• Accurate tool for short term prediction wind power output
• Sharp Ramp up and Ramp downs– Solution –Proper management of Wind
generator clusters
14
Market Issues
• Open access issues• Scheduling wind power• Payment for Imbalance• Wind generation cost to match UI rate
curve
Conclusion
• Following are required to be developed– Accurate tool to match Indian requirement for
Short term forecasting of wind power output– Managing wind generators clusters to reduce
the effect of sudden ramp ups and downs– Wind generator outputs to modulate with
frequency– Telemetering of wind generator outputs to
Load despatch centers
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
48.9 49 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.9 50 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.4 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.8 50.9 51
Frequency ----------->
UI r
ate
--
----
----
----
--->
Below 49.0 Hz UI rate =570 p/u
At 50.0 Hz UI rate =150 p/u
At 49.8 Hz UI rate =210 p/u
Above 50.5 Hz UI rate =0 p/u
UI RATE Rate of Unscheduled Drawal/Injection
57049.0 and below
21049.8
15050.0
0Above 50.5
Rate (p/u)Frequency (Hz)
