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“In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the
sum total of all human knowledge on a personal
device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical
Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]
<1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift
1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s
2000: 10 years for paradigm shift 21st century: 1000X tech change than 20th
century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture
in the fabric of human history”)
Ray Kurzweil, talk april2001
Forget>“Learn”
“The problem is never how to get new, innovative
thoughts into your mind,
but how to get the old ones out.”
Dee Hock
“It used to be that the big
ate the small. Now the fast eat the slow.”Geoff Yang, IVP/ (Institutional
Venture Partners)
Forbes100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive in ’87; 18 are in ’87 F100; the 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by
20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market from 1917 to 1987.
S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the
Class of ’57 were alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.
Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the
Market
The Pincer 5
“Destructive” entrepreneurs/ Global Competition
“White Collar Robots”
THE INTERNET! [E.g.: GM + Ford + DaimlerChrysler]
Global Outsourcing [E.g.: India, Mexico]
Speed!!
[“These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the
price of entry.”
Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard]
Maybe one [or more] of your “PSFs”
becomes the tail that wags the dog????? [E.g.: engineering, IS-logistics-
customer service]
New World of Work
< 1 in 10 F500#1: Manpower Inc.
Freelancers/I.C.: 16M-25MTemps: 3M (incl. CEOs & lawyers)
Microbusinesses: 12M-27MTotal: 31M-55M
Source: Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation
“If there is nothing very special about your work, no matter how hard you apply
yourself, you won’t get noticed, and that
increasingly means you won’t get paid much either.”
Michael Goldhaber, Wired
“When land was the productive asset, nations
battled over it. The same is happening now for talented people.”
Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH
“We have transitioned from an asset-based strategy
to a talent-based strategy.”
Jeff Skilling, CEO, Enron
From “1, 2 or you’re out” [JW] to …
“Best Talent in each industry segment to build
best proprietary intangibles” [EM]
Source: Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)
“We believe companies can increase their market cap 50 percent in 3 years. Steve
Macadam at Georgia-Pacific changed 20 of his 40 box plant managers to put
more talented, higher paid managers in charge. He increased
profitability from $25 million to $80 million in 2 years.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)
Message: Some people are better than other
people. Some people are a helluva lot better than other
people.
“Top performing companies are two to four times more likely
than the rest to pay what it takes to prevent losing
top performers.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)
What gets measured gets done. What gets
paid for gets done more. What gets paid
a lot for gets done a lot more.
“Talented people are less likely to wait their turn. We used to
view young people as trainees; now they are authorities. Arguably
this is the first time the older generation can – and must – leverage the younger generation very early in their careers.”
Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)
The Cracked Ones Let in the Light
“Our business needs a massive transfusion of talent, and talent, I believe, is most likely to be found
among non-conformists, dissenters and rebels.”
David Ogilvy
“AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers
outshine their male counterparts in almost
every measure”Title, Special Report, Business Week, 11.20.00
Heart of the Matter
F2F!/K2K!/1@T/R.F.A.*
*Freak to Freak/Kook to Kook/One at a Time/ Ready.Fire!Aim.
Joe J. Jones Joe J. Jones 1942 – 2001 1942 – 2001
HE WOULDA DONE SOME HE WOULDA DONE SOME
REALLY COOL STUFF REALLY COOL STUFF
BUT …BUT …
HIS BOSS WOULDN’T LET HIM! HIS BOSS WOULDN’T LET HIM!
The greatest dangerfor most of us
is not that our aim istoo high
and we miss it,but that it is
too lowand we reach it.
Michelangelo
Saviors-in-Waiting
Disgruntled CustomersFringe CompetitorsRogue Employees
Edge SuppliersWayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the
Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue
Employees
Button-down Org H.S.D.E. .
• Acquire for market share• Suck up to biggest customers• Pursue “strategic vendors”• Bigger is better• Accept assignments as given• Hire 4.0s from “top schools”• Promote when they’ve “paid
their dues”• Appoint a “prestigious” board
• Hang out with my pals• R.A.F.• Be “professional” at all
times/Honor thine elders
• Acquire for innovation• Partner with cool customers• Seek out pioneering vendors• Break it up … to refresh• Reframe all tasks to innovate• Hire “intriguing,” wherever• Promote tomorrow if the work
product is weird and WOW• Appoint an interesting,
headstrong board• Take a freak to lunch today• F.F.F.• Stay loose, stay cool/The hell
with thine elders
“Too many companies rely on benchmarking against industry
leaders. The problem is that those companies are simply catching up to what’s already been done,
while the leaders are moving on to some new advantage.”
David Crane, on Michael Porter’s Canadian competitiveness study, which discovered an
Innovation Deficit (05.05)
John Roth’s “Rules” [Nortel]
1. Our strategies must be tied to leading-edge customers on the attack.
2. Time cannot be sacrificed for better quality, lower cost, or even better decisions.
3. It doesn’t matter whether you develop or acquire leading technology. Our job is to provide the technology
and products our customers need.4. Success is achieved by leading change,
not waiting for it.5. We are paranoid about our leadership – willing to cannibalize our own products to maintain our edge.
Source: Abridged from The Wall Street Journal (07.25.00)
“Our strategies must be tied to leading edge
customers on the attack. If we focus on the defensive
customers, we will also become defensive.”
John Roth, CEO, Nortel
“The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of
similar companies, employing
similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, working in
similar jobs, coming up with similar
ideas, producing similar things, with
similar prices and similar quality.”
Kjell Nordstrom and Jonas Ridderstrale, Funky Business
Tomorrow Today: Cisco!
90% of $20B (=$50M/day)75% mfg. outsourced; 50% of orders routed to supplier who ships direct
Gross margin: 65%; Net margin: 28%
Annual savings in service and support from customer
self-management: $550M
Enron eWorld: “Price a structured trade,” per John Arnold, 26: Early
1999: 30 times a day. Late 2000: 30 times per … minute.
Long-term gas contract. 1989: 9 months, 400+ deals. Late 90s:
2 weeks, 2 per week. Late 2000: 5 such deals per day
Source: www.ecompany.com (1/2001)
GM/Ford/DaimlerChrysler/Renault/Nissan/Oracle/CommerceOne
Covisint (02.2000)$240B (+$500B)90,000 Suppliers
$2-3,000/Car42 to 12-18 MonthsSource: Business2.0 (02.2001)
“This is the first meter of a 10-kilometer race.
Eventually, all markets will come to resemble today’s foreign exchange market.”
Hamid Biglari, Head of Corporate Strategy, Citigroup, in “GIGATRENDS”, Wired 04.01
Tomorrow Today: Cisco!
90% of $20B; save $550M
C.Sat e >> C.Sat H
Customer Engineer Chat Rooms/Collaborative
Design ($1B “free” consulting) (45,000 customer problems a week solved via
customer collaboration)
“One cannot be tentative about this. Excuses like ‘channel
conflict’ or ‘marketing and sales aren’t ready’ cannot be allowed. Delay and you risk being cut out of your own market, perhaps not by traditional competitors but by companies you
never heard of 24 months ago.”
Jack Welch [07.00/Forbes.com]
GE & the Web
Purchasing: 2000: $6B; 2001: $15B
Sales: 1999: $1B; 2000: $7B; 2001: $20B+
Source: Business 2.0 (05.01)
“We’ve put the word out to all of our suppliers: by the end of the year [2000] we’ll only do purchasing
over the Internet.”John Paterson, C.P.O., IBM
[$50B from 18,000 suppliers]
Nasser’s Triad: The Internet Is the New Job 1
Brian Kelley, 40, head of global sales and service (GE appliances);
first non-“car guy” in the job
Karen Francis, 38, eBusiness czar (Olds brand boss)
Marv Adams, 43, CIO (Bank One’s IT infrastructure consolidator)
WebWorld = Everything
Web as a way to run your business’ innardsWeb as connector for your entire supply-demand chain Web as “spider’s web” which re-conceives the industry
Web/B2B as ultimate wake-up call to “commodity producers”
Web as the scourge of slack, inefficiency, sloth, bureaucracy, poor customer data
Web as an Encompassing Way of LifeWeb = Everything (P.D. to after-sales)
Web forces you to focus on what you do bestWeb as entrée, at any size, to World’s Best at Everything
as next door neighbor
Message: eCommerce is not a technology play! It is a
relationship, partnership, organizational and
communications play, made possible by new
technologies.
Message: There is no such thing as an effective B2B or
Internet-supply chain strategy in a low-trust,
bottlenecked-communication, six-layer
organization.
“Ebusiness is about rebuilding the organization from the
ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet.
Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the
number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an
ebusiness.”
Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins
“There is no use trying,” said Alice. “One can’t believe impossible things.”
“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was
your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve
believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Lewis Carroll
?????????
Home Furnishings … 94%Vacations … 92%
Houses … 91%Consumer Electronics … 51%
Cars … 60% (90%)All consumer purchases … 83%
Bank Account … 89%Health Care … 80%
And #3: GREEN?????: 50% to 36%: Protect Environment > Economic
Growth.
58% to 34%: Protect Plants & Animals > Preserve Private
Property Rights.
“Of all the ways the company will be judged over the next
decade, none will be greater than our
response to the issue of climate change.”
William Clay FORD Jr.
“Experiences are as distinct from services as services are from
goods.”Joseph Pine & James Gilmore, The
Experience Economy: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage
“The [Starbucks] Fix” Is on …
“We have identified a ‘third place.’ And I really believe that sets us apart. The third place is
that place that’s not work or home. It’s the place our
customers come for refuge.”Nancy Orsolini, District Manager
Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!”
“What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride
through small towns and have people be afraid of him.”Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based
Leadership
1940: Cake from flour, sugar (raw materials economy): $1.00
1955: Cake from Cake mix (goods economy): $2.00
1970: Bakery-made cake (service economy): $10.00
1990: Party @ Chuck E. Cheese (experience economy) $100.00
1st Law Mktg Physics: OVERT BENEFIT (Focus: 1 or 2 > 3 or 4/“One Great Thing.”
Source #1: Personal Passion)
2ND Law: REAL REASON TO BELIEVE (Stand & Deliver!)
3RD Law: DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE (Execs Don’t Get It: “intent to purchase” – 100%;
“unique” – 0% to 5%)
Source: Jump Start Your Business Brain, Doug Hall
“Brand Promise” Exercise: (1) Who Are WE? (poem/novella/song, then 25
words.) (2) List three ways in which we are UNIQUE … to our Clients.
(3) Who are THEY (competitors)? (ID, 25 words.)
(4) List 3 distinct “us”/”them” differences. (5) Try “results” on your teammates. (6) Try ’em on a friendly Client. (7) Big Enchilada:
Try ’em on a skeptical Client!