Winning the General Election

Anthony Downs

• Median Voter Theorem

Median Voter Theorem

• Assumptions:

• Single dimensional issue space• Pairwise vote• Voters always vote (no abstentions)• Voters have one unique preferred position• Voters’ preferences “single peaked”• Parties/candidates maximize chances of winning• Preferences are normally distributed in

electorate

Median Voter Theorem

• If all voters vote and their preferences are single-peaked and on a single dimension, then the median ideal preference can defeat all other positions in a pairwise vote.

Questions

• What are the incentives for general election candidates given MVT?

• How will candidate behavior change if you substitute a skewed or polarized electorate for a normally distributed one?

Critiques of MVT?

Usefulness of MVT?

Changes in the campaign environment

• Professionalization

• Specialization

• Computerization

• Polling

• Communications technology

What role do parties play in these campaigns?

• Candidates hire partisan professionals to run campaigns

• In most races, the candidate is on her own• In competitive races, the party can spend

a lot of money– not always the way the candidate would like

• Campaign finance laws favor candidate-centered system

Campaign Finance Restrictions on party spending

• Contributions to candidates

• Coordinated spending with candidate

• Independent expenditures in favor of candidate

• Voter mobilization

Limits on party spending

Limit for 2008, per election

Contributions to candidates $5000 from state party

$5000 natl party to House

$35,000 natl party to Senate

Coordinated spending with candidate

House: $41,000

Senate: $81,000-$2M

Independent expenditures in favor of candidate

No limit,

can’t be coordinated

Voter mobilization State and local parties can spend as much as they want, as long as they raise it on their own

Limits on how parties can raise money

• National party committees can receive• $15,000 from PACs per calendar year• $25,000 from individuals per calendar year

• State party committees (that deal with federal elections) can receive

• $10,000 from an individual

• Party units can transfer unlimited amounts between themselves

Soft Money

• Unregulated contributions TO state parties

• State parties used to be able to use soft money for “party building” activities for federal elections

• “Issue ads” allowed

• What was so bad?– federal candidates helped raise it– issue ads advocated for candidates

McCain-FeingoldBipartisan Campaign Reform Act

• National parties can only raise money in regulated amounts (Hard money)

• State parties have to fund activities related to federal elections with hard money (mostly)

• All “electioneering communications” aired within 60 days of a federal election (or 30 days of a caucus/primary/convention) must be paid for with “hard” money

• Parties can’t make both coordinated and independent expenditures. Have to choose.

Effects of McCain-Feingold (BCRA)

• Strange bedfellows in debate

• Raises the importance of hard money

Advantages of BCRA, 2004?

Amount raised from

individuals, 2003-2004

Amount raised in small

increments (<$200)

Republican National Committee

350,368,907 66,170,884

Democratic National Committee

334,531,234 13,809,468

Soft money

0

50

100

150

200

250

99-00 2001

Democrats Republicans

Hard money

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

99-00 2001-2

Democrats Republicans

Effects of reforms on parties?

• Reduce importance to candidates

• 527 organizations

Top Ten Democratic 527s in 2004

America Coming Together - NonFederal Account 79,795,487

Joint Victory Campaign 2004 71,811,666

The Media Fund 59,404,183

Service Employees International Union Political Education & Action Fund 48,426,867

AFSCME Special Account 25,144,915

MoveOn.org Voter Fund 12,558,215

New Democrat Network Non Federal Account 12,726,158

Citizens for a Strong Senate 10,853,730

Sierra Club Voter Education Fund 87,271,27

EMILYS List Non Federal 77,399,46

Top Ten Republican 527s, 2004

Progress for America Voter Fund 44,929,178

Swift Boat Vets and POWs for Truth 25,758,413

Club for Growth 19,365,903

College Republican National Committee, Inc. 16,830,651

Club for Growth.net 4,115,037

National Association of Realtors 527 Fund 3,215,263

The November Fund 3,151,170

CA Republican National Convention Delegation 2004 Account 4,393,055

Republican Leadership Coalition, Inc. 2,365,550

National Federation of Republican Women 2,201,533

Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission