Fall 2010
N O R T H E R N V I R G I N I A T E C H N O L O G Y C O U N C I L
THE VOICEO F T E C H N O L O G Y
Winter 2012
IN THIS ISSUE:Booz Allen’s Karen Dahut on Innovative Military Training
Q&A with Va. Tech’sDr. Charles Steger
LMI’s Nelson Ford
Modeling and Simulationat GMU
Beyond War Games
Beyond War Games
Beyond War Games
Beyond Modeling and simulation has evolved
from its military roots to support a wide range of industries.
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If you’ve ever played one of the videogames in the decades-old franchise � e Sims, you’ve un-wittingly witnessed a key element of the evolu-tion of modeling and simulation: it got messy fast — and the messier it got, the better the re-sults wound up becoming.
In the games, the lifelike characters, or “Sims,” you guide tend to be a bit on the � ighty side. � ey bicker with each other. � ey miss the bus to work or school. Until they get good at cooking, they have an alarm-ing tendency to start grease � res. Put them in a swim-ming pool and remove the ladder, and there’s a good chance they’ll drown.
Now apply this less-than-rational behavior to a hur-ricane evacuation or tracking the spread of a highly contagious disease. In the real world, cars don’t � ow out of cities in lockstep — their drivers wait too long, backtrack or run out of gas. In the face of an outbreak, people might hoard life-saving medication or ignore quarantine orders. Developing technology that can predict these messy human reactions can make the di� erence between an accurate understanding of a real-world crisis and a wildly inaccurate one.
“New modeling and simulation techniques have al-lowed us to represent not only physical things, but also a lot of the human behavior that impacts everything we
Modeling and simulation has evolved from its military
roots to support a wide range of industries.
Modeling and simulation Modeling and simulation has evolved from its military has evolved from its military
Beyond War Games
By Mark Toner
16 THE VOICE OF TECHNOLOGY www.nvtc.org Winter 2012
try to model,” says Dr. John Sokolowski, executive director of the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC), a multidisciplinary research center operated by Old Dominion University (ODU). Earlier this year, VMASC researchers won the Governor’s Technology Award for developing a tool that helped understand human behavior in a particularly emotional arena: the foreclosure crisis, pinpointing the factors that might prompt homeowners to “strategically” default on their mortgages.
“Lots of things viewed as purely physical systems — roadways, communication systems — are better thought of as socially cou-pled systems,” explains Christopher Barrett, director of the Vir-ginia Bioinformatics Institute’s advanced computing and decision informatics laboratory at Virginia Tech. “You really can’t under-stand how they work if you don’t include the people using them.”
From its origins in military wargaming more than a half-century ago, modeling and simulation has grown into a discipline that attempts to make sense of a chaotic world in a variety of � elds. For all its growth, the government remains the sector’s top client — particularly in the areas
of military training, intelligence and homeland security. Virginia’s modeling and simulation sector employs an esti-
mated 11,700 and accounts for $1.8 billion in direct economic output, according to the Virginia Economic Development Part-
nership. More than 200 Virginia companies, split fairly evenly be-tween Northern Virginia and the military-heavy Hampton Roads region, are involved in modeling and simulation, according to VEDP. � ere’s even a modeling and simulation caucus in Con-gress, which was founded and is currently co-chaired by a Vir-ginia lawmaker — Rep. J. Randy Forbes of Hampton Roads, who introduced a House resolution calling modeling and simulation a “national critical technology.”
Virginia is one of the three states that have become modeling and simulation hubs, according to Brian Kroll, VEDP’s senior
As technology has improved, wargaming has evolved to realistic exercises where front-line soldiers provide feedback.
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economist. It’s also home to some of its strongest centers for edu-cation and training — ODU awarded the world’s � rst doctorate degree in modeling and simulation in 2000. Unlike California and Florida, where computer gaming and the amusement park in-dustry, respectively, have sparked growth in non-government uses for modeling and simulation, Virginia’s industry remains largely focused on military and other government applications. But that’s starting to change.
“Virginia is trying to diversify,” Kroll says.
To get a sense of how much modeling and simulation has changed real-world endeavors, look no further than George Washington University’s (GW) Loud-oun campus, where a high-speed Silicon Graphics Altix 450 server churns out incredibly detailed simu-
lations of automobile collisions that have all but replaced real-world crash tests — the source of those hypnotic slow-motion videos with the belly-� opping safety dummies we all remember from driver’s ed classes.
GW’s National Crash Analysis Center (NCAC), a collaboration with the Federal Highway Administration and the National High-way Tra� c Safety Administration, is home to all those crash-test videos — more than 19,000 of them � ll its library. But not nearly as many new ones are being made these days.
Two decades ago, car manufacturers would conduct at least 100 crash tests as they designed new vehicles, painstakingly making miniscule design changes as they studied the steel-crumpling re-sults of each test. Computer simulations existed, but they o� en took a month of supercomputer time to process, explains Cing-Dao Kan, NCAC’s director. But as hardware evolved from mul-timillion-dollar mainframes to parallel clusters to comparatively inexpensive multi-core PCs, far more detailed models can be run in just hours, reducing the number of real-world crash tests from more than 100 to just two or three.
“That’s all due to modeling and simulation advancement,” Kan says.
Along with time and cost savings, advances in technology and more sophisticated models have given subject-matter experts un-precedented access to the process. “Modeling and simulation is now a two-way street,” says Robert Dillow, deputy chief enterprise architect for Serco. “It used to be a bunch of guys in white coats working around a Cray [mainframe] computer — you told them what you want, and you might get it in six weeks.” Changes to models can be now made in near-real time, based on the immedi-ate feedback of policymakers and practitioners.
Factoring in human behaviors and interactions has also dra-matically changed the face of modeling and simulation. � e Vir-ginia Bioinformatics Institute’s (VBI) models can simulate as many as 300 million people, using Census data, marketing and mobility surveys, and other demographic information to layer in behavioral factors. � ese synthetic people can then, in turn, be used to generate synthetic travel plans — dropping kids o� at
school on the way to work, for example — that are mapped onto a virtual street grid to project tra� c jams and time delays.
“Synthetic information can give you huge leverages,” says Barrett. When VBI began its work, a model the size of the metro Chicago area would take two weeks to prepare and 48 hours of computer run time. Now the same simulation can run in 45 seconds on the same hardware. Once the computing process is scaled up, “you could compute everybody on earth in 45 seconds,” Barrett says.
VBI, which has developed simulation tools for the Department of Defense and the National Institutes of Health, has also conducted its own research in areas as diverse as electrical power markets and the distribution of antiviral medication during an epidemic — no easy feat, due to the need to stop the disease’s spread without en-couraging hoarding by people without symptoms. By modeling a variety of scenarios, VBI researchers determined that the best way to distribute medication is to give away about 60 percent of it to patients presenting with symptoms and then sell the remainder to the public in controlled markets.
Such models can pull data from surprising sources. George Mason University, for example, is collaborating with researchers at the Smithsonian Institution to study the Mongol Empire — which, with its far-� ung trade networks and cultural in� uence, was argu-ably the earliest example of globalization — and model the rami� -cations on modern-day politics. (See related story, p. 30.)
But they must also remain anchored in reality. While NCAC is now employing sophisticated simulations to study new highway guardrail systems and the implications of the lighter, more fuel-e� cient vehicles that new federal regulations will require, its ex-perts still conduct real-world crash tests. “We never forget the fact that despite all the simulation, we still have to do testing to verify our analysis,” Kan says. “It shows we respect the physics.”
“Lots of things viewedas purely physical systems — roadways, communication systems — are better thought of as socially coupled systems.”
— Christopher Barrett, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute
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Whether you’ve logged time on a � ight simula-tor, tried to conquer the world in a real-time strategy game, or gone clothes shopping for a Sim, you owe a debt to the military, where the very concept of gaming as a strategic and
training tool was born. Even with the military on a very real war-time footing for the past decade, the need for simulation hasn’t lessened, but shi� ed. As military operations wind down in Iraq and elsewhere, returning pilots face fewer chances for “live � y” training and must brush up on di� erent capabilities than the ones they faced in theater.
At the Air National Guard Distributed Training Operations Center (DTOC), Booz Allen Hamilton worked with the Air Force to create what it calls a “distributed synthetic operational environ-ment.” In layman’s terms, that means a system � exible enough to provide Live Virtual Constructive (LVC) training encompassing situations from counterinsurgency to more traditional military threats. “If you listen to our senior leaders, the military has got to be prepared for a wide range of tasks,” says Keith Catanzano, a vice president at Booz Allen. “Places like the DTOC are a venue to train on those types of skills.”
� e role of contractors in these types of training operations isn’t always all that di� erent than other IT work with the govern-ment — heavy doses of systems integration and analysis are in-volved. Booz Allen, for example, connected simulations and real-world systems such as instrumented ranges for DTOC, and has also modi� ed the source code and architecture of the Navy’s legacy simulation systems to better represent a range of modern threats.
As technology has improved, wargaming has evolved from macro-level simulations overseen by top commanders to realistic exercises where front-line soldiers participate and provide feedback, increasingly using low-cost tablets and mobile devices to replicate messaging from real-world mission command systems. “We’ve moved to the micro level,” Kroll says. Models have also expanded from front-line combat to include the logistics that are the key to any operation — and the what-if questions of what happens if supplies are delivered in the wrong place or captured by the enemy. “We’re looking at very speci� c scenarios and trying to anticipate what some of the second and third-order e� ects might be,” Catanzano says.
Training simulations also increasingly provide metrics that can be analyzed to re� ne and assess their impact. “A lot of information is now captured digitally,” Catanzano says, adding that this data can be incorporated into knowledge-management systems.
Modeling and simulation is now used in a wide range of areas, from disaster recovery to analyzing business practices.
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From designing cutting-edge aircra� to determining optimal work� ows and logistics, modeling and simula-tion has also become a critical tool for decisions made by government agencies — and the suppliers that serve them. “We view modeling and simulation as an activity
that underlies all our processes to design systems and programs,” explains Steve Froggett, technical fellow and program manager for Northrop Grumman’s decision support programs. “You don’t get contracts that say ‘build a model’ — you bid on a contract to build something, and the customer expects that as part of the en-gineering and design process you create the models necessary to demonstrate that your design is viable.”
Lockheed Martin works closely on modeling with its govern-ment customers in its Su� olk-based Center for Innovation — col-loquially known as “� e Lighthouse.” “We use models and simu-lation early on in the life cycle to work with customers hand in hand and say ‘what if,’” explains Je� Wilcox, corporate vice presi-dent for engineering. “� at gets the conversations started.”
Whether building a war� ghter or modernizing a computer system, modeling and simulation can now be used to inform the entire continuum of program development, from re� ning needs, design and development, and � nally, assessing ongoing opera-tions and support. � is holistic approach has grown as � nancial constraints have prompted more decisions about scarce resources and models have become more sophisticated, according to Frog-gett. “� ere’s been a lot of improvement in the tools available to support that kind of modeling,” he says.
Complex modeling can also assess the impact of multiple sys-tems in complex environments, such as missile defense, which involves disparate radar and sensor systems based on the land, in the air and in space. By studying real-time models, “we can capture all that data and review how each of the product lines per-formed in a scenario and improve each [system],” says Richard Lewis, Lockheed Martin’s corporate vice president for net-centric integration and demonstration.
Along with the inclusion of behavioral factors, inter-connecting disparate models and simulations to generate more holistic and sophisticated results represents the oth-er predominant area of research and development in the sector, according to VMASC’s Sokolowski. “We’re doing a fair amount of research to make it a much more seamless process,” he says.
With these more sophisticated systems, modeling and simulation also increasingly focuses on process, not just hardware. “We focus on the people doing the work,” Dillow says of Serco’s work developing business-process models for military and nonmilitary government agencies. “Each role has responsibilities, and those responsibilities can be cap-tured in a graphical tool that captures data inputs, outputs and the � ow of control so we can get to a solution.”
� at modeling tool, which Serco calls a “business process animator,” provides a visual depiction of work-
� ows so decision-makers can understand the impact of poten-tial changes “in the context of their organization,” Dillow says. For example, Serco worked with the National Visa Center to study the impact of eliminating paper processing, creating an animated model that showed the work� ow di� erences. “Even before they began to change the processes, they were able to see the upstream and downstream [implications] of what they were doing,” Dillow says.
From designing cutting-edge aircraft to determining optimal work� ows and logistics, modeling and simulation has also become a critical tool for decisions made by government agencies — and the suppliers that serve them.
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By distilling complex policy changes and work� ows into a graphical model, modeling can help identify gaps and duplication in organizations’ work� ow, which can then be worked back into more detailed policy documents or system requirements. “You’re looking for patterns, and modeling and simulation is great at looking at patterns,” Dillow says.
Modeling and simulation has also become a key part of the acquisitions process for many defense and government agencies, supporting decisions and helping create a feedback loop between the people developing system requirements and the solutions pro-viders. Models developed by agencies as part of the RFP process have helped the government “develop what their needs are more e� ectively,” says Wilcox. “� at’s been very powerful, and [has] put us on the same page.”
What’s changing is how these models are shared. “� e next step is to not just use the models for developing RFPs, but to let the RFP be the model,” Wilcox adds. “When we can work not from an abstract list of speci� cations, but a sense of what the customer wants the system to do … innovation can truly be unleashed.”
Wargaming, simulations and prototyping have all become part of the DNA of how the military ful� lls its mission. But modeling and simula-tion has moved far beyond its military roots.
“Other elements of the federal government have adopted and modi� ed modeling and simulation as a bene� -ciary of defense investment,” Catanzano says. Such applications range from analyzing air-tra� c patterns to studying the impact of severe weather to identifying waste or fraud to emergency plan-ning. Private-sector companies, led by the transportation and logistics industries, have also followed suit. “Development cycles are so short now that you need to have the same type of thought processes to see what kind of changes make sense,” Dillow says.
� e biggest potential for change may lie within the health care industry — which, at $2.7 trillion, overshadows even the Depart-ment of Defense in terms of economic impact. “� e medical com-munity has woken up to the use of simulation,” Sokolowski says, noting that the American College of Surgeons has approved the use of simulation in certain areas of training, while hospitals are embracing modeling to study changes to their complex sta� ng and work� ow issues. VMASC is also currently developing simula-tions to train medical personnel on new best practices involving patient blood management during surgery.
� at growth is translating to increased demand for specialists in the � eld. According to VMASC’s Sokolowski, there are close to 1,000 advertised positions for modeling and simulation engineers across Virginia. “� ere’s a whole variety of companies that are looking for these kinds of individuals because they’ve started to realize the value of using simulation to understand some of their problems and work through them,” he says. With technological gains providing the ability to quickly tweak almost any variable in a model and get near-instant results, more people are needed
to work through the implications of simulations, according to NCAC’s Kan. “Now you need the manpower to si� through the results,” he says, pointing to the growing need for engineers in a variety of areas to learn how to develop, run and analyze models.
At the same time, the skillset required of modeling and simu-lation remains di� erent from traditional engineering programs, as its specialists must apply their systems engineering skills to a variety of disciplines — from aerodynamics to health care. “� is has developed into its own discipline, and you really need people who are professionally trained to apply and develop new simula-tion capabilities,” Sokolowski says.
Driven by the military and government, Virginia’s colleges have focused on providing a broad range of modeling and simu-lation training — from VMASC’s roots as a short-term training solution for the military’s Joint Training, Analysis, and Simula-tion Center (JTASC) to a range of degrees, certi� cates and re-search programs at many state colleges. Tidewater Community College in Hampton Roads even o� ers an associates degree in modeling and simulation.
Closer to home, the Equal Footing Foundation’s computer club-houses provide a natural connection to channel young gamers’ in-terest into potential careers in modeling and simulation. A� er all, it’s not a big jump from the Sims to simulations, and the insights gleaned from the virtual world are increasingly shaping the real one.
The irony is that once these sophisticated models of the world are created, all too o� en their rich � ndings are extracted and boiled down to a sound bite, a Word document, or a PowerPoint slide. Much as govern-ment agencies are beginning to share their models
with contractors as part of the RFP process, those companies are now looking to use modeling and simulation to communicate in-ternally and through their own supply chains.
“� e most powerful thing models do is pass information and allow us to communicate in ways that human language is noto-riously ine� cient,” says Ray O. Johnson, Lockheed Martin’s chief technology o� cer. � e company is working with the Council on Competitiveness to expand the use of modeling and simulation deeper into the supply chain. It is also developing what it calls a model-based “digital tapestry” to share information both with the subcontractors in its supply chain and across di� erent business and engineering units internally. Doing so will allow users to “get the full richness of the communications set, so you don’t lose informa-tion or add risk and cost at every transaction,” Johnson says.
Much as physics-based simulations must be validated by real-world tests, these more sophisticated models will support, not supplant, decision-making. “� e human brain is the best way to make decisions and prioritize and value tradeo� s,” Catanzano says. “� e scope of what you decide is where modeling and simu-lation brings a lot of value.” nvtc
Mark Toner is a Reston-based business and technology writer.
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