Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Winter Storm, January 3, 2018 Decision Support Briefing #4a
As of: January 3, 2018, 1145 AM EST
Created by: Steven Pfaff, Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wilmington, NC
What has Changed? Updated ice and snowfall slides
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Snow Accumulating snow and sleet will cause hazardous travel
I-95 corridor and
locations east toward the coast
Snow beginning inland areas early this afternoon for SC and mid afternoon for NC,
then all coastal areas by this evening
Ice Light sleet and freezing rain expected
Coastal counties and eastern Columbus
County
Occurring now Georgetown and Williamsburg areas
spreading across remaining northeast SC by early
afternoon and mid afternoon coastal southeast NC
Wind 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
may create power outages in those locations that see ice
accumulations from freezing rain
highest winds coastal areas
Wind increasing later this afternoon and tonight
Coastal Flood Minor coastal flooding possible Cape Fear beaches around high tide late Thu morning
Marine Gale conditions All Coastal and Offshore waters This morning into Friday
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Summary of Greatest Impacts
Ice
Wind
Coastal Flood
Marine
Snow None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Moderate Confidence
Low Confidence
Nearly Certain
Low Confidence
High Confidence
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Watches/Warnings in Effect
Winter Storm Warning through 6 AM Thu
Winter Weather Advisory through 6 AM Thu
Gale Warning through 9 AM Thursday (Gale and Storm Warnings also in effect for the offshore waters beyond 20 nm (not shown)
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Expected Snowfall
Timing: - Snow will increase and
spread across far inland areas through the early afternoon, while a changeover is expected at coastal areas by this evening. Snow will come to an end from west to east after midnight
Impacts: - 2 to 4” of snow and some
sleet accumulation generally east of I-95 and inland of the coast.
- Travel will become hazardous, especially during the afternoon and tonight
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
The Range of Possibilities
Official forecast snow amounts
Maximum Potential
Accumulation
Expect at least this much snowfall
Moderate confidence exists with the expected snowfall amounts, however, models continue to show a lot of spread between the Expected and High End amounts given track and intensity differences exhibited by some of the models. See more: http://www.weather.gov/ilm/winter
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Expected Ice Accumulation Timing:
- Freezing rain is ongoing across southern areas, and the area of freezing rain will spread northward across coastal northeast SC through the early afternoon, and by mid afternoon across coastal southeast NC.
Impacts: - Up to 0.10” of icing possible
near Georgetown and less than 0.10” of icing across further inland SC areas and coastal southeast NC areas
- Travel will become very hazardous, and power outages are possible as well, especially in those areas that receive the highest ice accumulations
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Coastal Flood
Impacts and Timing: Water up into the dunes and into other prone coastal flood locations. Some erosion is possible with each high tide through Thu morning. Poor navigation due to low water possible from blow-out conditions each low tide Thu afternoon and Fri.
High tide late this morning
High tide late Thursday morning
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Key Points
Antecedent ground temperatures are very cold and any precipitation that occurs will create hazardous driving conditions.
Wintry precipitation is occurring across southern areas and will spread northward through the afternoon. Precipitation will persist through tonight coming to an end late.
Accumulating snow of 2-4” is possible on all surfaces, generally east of I-95 and just inland of the coast. In addition, ice accumulations up to 0.10” are possible, especially in Georgetown County & parts of Horry County (less than 0.10” elsewhere across coastal areas).
Uncertainty remains in the specific snow amounts. Any subtle changes in dominant precipitation type will create changes to accumulations, both in amounts and location.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 1/3/2018 11:47 AM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Contact and Next Briefing Information
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive, do not use after 4 PM Wednesday January 3, 2018
Briefing Webpage: http://weather.gov/ilm/briefing
Facebook: NWSWilmingtonNC
Twitter: @NWSWilmingtonNC
Next Briefing When: None planned at this time, will
provide quick updates as needed
Web: http://weather.gov/ilm
E-mail: [email protected]
