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Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter...

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Winter Wheat Production & Economics Larry Durand PAg, MSc, CCA
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Page 1: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Winter Wheat Production & Economics

Larry Durand PAg, MSc, CCA

Page 2: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Western Winter Wheat Initiative

Page 3: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Why Grow Winter Wheat

• Time management (seeding and harvest)• Weed management/lower herbicide reliance• Other pest management

– Wheat midge

– Fusarium head blight

• More acres with existing equipment (decreased fixed costs)

• Excellent soil conservation properties• Higher yields• Habitat/environmental benefits

Page 4: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Why Grow Winter Wheat

Page 5: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP

Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr

Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat Barley Peas Barley Lentil Lentil

Estimated Yield (bus/ac) 60.1 39.5 37.1 23.7 53.6 47.8 99.1 64 37.1 76.8 1298 1189.6

Estimated Market Price $ 5.50 9.8 $ 9.00 $ 12.90 $ 5.25 $ 5.75 $ 2.60 $ 4.10 $ 7.00 $ 3.00 $ 0.20 $ 0.21

Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) $ 330.55 387.1 $ 333.90 $ 305.73 $ 281.40 $ 274.85 $ 257.66 $ 262.40 $ 259.70 $ 230.40 $ 259.60 $ 249.82

Total Variable Expenses $ 154.25 $ 212.59 $ 163.72 $ 148.14 $ 161.88 $ 156.46 $ 140.59 $ 147.37 $ 153.00 $ 149.40 $ 173.64 $ 178.22

Total Other Expenses $ 74.07 $ 74.07 $ 83.04 $ 74.07 $ 74.07 $ 74.07 $ 74.07 $ 74.07 $ 83.04 $ 74.07 $ 83.04 $ 83.04

Total Expenses $ 228.32 $ 286.66 $ 246.76 $ 222.21 $ 235.95 $ 230.53 $ 214.66 $ 221.44 $ 236.04 $ 223.47 $ 256.68 $ 261.26

Net Returns ($/acre) $ 102.23 $ 100.44 $ 87.14 $ 83.52 $ 45.45 $ 44.32 $ 43.00 $ 40.96 $ 23.66 $ 6.93 $ 2.92 $ (11.44)

Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture

Crop Planning Guide 2014 - Black Soil Zone

Page 6: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Western Producer

Dec. 19th, 2013 issue

Page 7: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat
Page 8: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

WHERE DO THE PROFITS COME FROM?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Win

ter W

heat

as

a %

of S

prin

g W

heat

Year

Winter Wheat vs. Spring Wheat YieldSource: Stats Canada

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

Page 9: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

AGRONOMICS‘THE ABCs’

Page 10: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Seeding

1. Seed early

Page 11: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

1. Seed Early (Aug. 20 – Sept . 15 )

Page 12: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

1. Seed Early (Aug. 20 – Sept. 15)

Page 13: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

05101520

2530354045

.5‐.75" 1.25‐1.5" 2‐2.25"

Seeding Depth (Inches)

Yield (b

u/ac

)

Seeding

1. Seed early

2. Seed shallow–0.5 – 1.0 “ deep

Page 14: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Effect of Seeding Date and Depth on Winter Wheat Yield

60

70

80

90

100

110

Sep-01 Sep-08 Sep-15 Sep-22 Sep-29

Seeding Date

Yie

ld (B

u/ac

)

3/4" deep 2" deep

Source: Guy Lafond

Page 15: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

July 8th, 2008 – Watrous, SK

Page 16: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Seeding

1. Seed early

2. Seed shallow• 0.5 – 1.0 “ deep

3. Seed into standing stubble

Page 17: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Seeding

1. Seed early

2. Seed shallow• 0.5 – 1.0 “ deep

3. Seed into standing stubble

4. Use seedplaced phosphorus

Page 18: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

(Fowler and Brydon, 1991)

Seedplaced P

Page 19: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

58.1 74.687.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Win

ter W

heat

Yie

ld

(bus

/ac)

0 - P 30 - P 60 - P

Winter Wheat Yield Response to P fertilizerThornhill, MB

Westco Fertilizers, 2003

‐ Soil test levels only 5 lbs/ac P2O5 (0‐6”)‐ No visual differences in winter hardiness observed

Page 20: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

NitrogenPlacement

Page 21: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

• Lots of Options– At seeding– Late fall– Early spring– Other?

Timing

Page 22: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

• Decision should be based on:– Assessment of potential for losses– Equipment available– Sources available– Costs

Source/Placement/Timing

Page 23: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

3500

4000

4500

5000

Grain

 yield

 (kg h

a‐1)

N treatment

Beres, AAFC

W. Canada Research (18 site years) 2008 to 2010

Page 24: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

NitrogenPlacement

Page 25: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Rates should be determined based on:

1. Soil test2. Realistic yield targets3. Protein objectives

Rates

Page 26: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Win

ter W

heat

as

a %

of S

prin

g W

heat

Year

Winter Wheat vs. Spring Wheat YieldSource: Stats Canada

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

Page 27: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

• Rates of N• Timing of N uptake

– Early = yield– Late = protein

• Weather

Use 11.5% protein as a rule of thumb for N sufficiency

Rosser - 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 40 80 120 160 200

N lb/ac

bu/a

c

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Pro

tein

%

YieldProtein

Protein

Page 28: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

N Ferti l ization Summary

USE LOTS!!

Page 29: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

WEED MANAGEMENT

Page 30: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

WEED MANAGEMENT

1. Perennial weeds2. Winter annual weeds3. Fall volunteers

NO OPPORTUNITY FOR NON-SELECTIVE HERBICIDE APPLICATION IN SPRING!

Page 31: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

1. Perennial Weeds

A. Grassy perennials (foxtail barley)• Don’t seed winter wheat unless confident you

can adequately control prior to seeding

B. Broadleaved perennials• Preharvest burnoff• Preseed burnoff• Fall in-crop

Page 32: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

2. WINTER ANNUAL WEEDS

A. Grassy Winter Annual Weeds (Japanese & Downy Brome)

• Avoid seeding winter wheat in these fields• Simplicity in fall or spring

B. Broadleaved Winter Annual Weeds• Burnoff with residual activity• Fall in-crop

Page 33: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

Winter Annual Control with 2,4-D

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

25-Sep 27-Oct 28-Apr 13-May

Application Date

Wee

d B

iom

ass

(g/s

qm)

StinkweedFlixweed

Source: K. Kirkland, AAFC, Scott, SK

Page 34: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat
Page 35: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

3. FALL VOLUNTEERS• Volunteers emerging in fall can be

yield robbersFall in-crop

herbicide great to control volunteers and winter annuals

2,4-D spray miss

Page 36: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

3. Weed Management

• Spring in‐crop… timing is key– Remember winter wheat spraying stages occur early in the growing season

– Spray early (similar to spring burnoff timing) for best control of early emerging weeds… competitive crop will take care of the rest

Page 37: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

3. Disease Management• Seed treatment?• Foliar fungicide… a must to turn a good crop into a great crop

CDC Buteo – No seed trt - Lethbridge CDC Buteo – Raxil WW - Lethbridge

Beres, 2011

Page 38: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

TreatmentApplication

Rate Timing Net Bu./Ac.% of Untreated

Check GradeBu weight

lb/bu % FDK % DON

Untreated Check 85 100 1.0 62.9 0 0

Stratego .202 L/acre Flagleaf 98.6 116 1.0 63.2 0 0

Folicur EW .203 L/acre Flagleaf 99.6 117 1.0 63.3 0 0

Folicur EW .203 L/acreEarly

Heading 98.1 116 1.0 63.8 0 0

Prosaro .202 L/acreEarly

Heading 100.3 118 1.0 63.8 0 0

Bayer Fungicide Strip TrialLanigan, SK - 2009

Page 39: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

FINALLY…

•PLAN•PLAN•PLAN

Page 40: Winter Wheat Production & Economics · WINTER WHEAT - SASKATCHEWAN'S MOST PROFITABLE CROP Winter Canola Green Flax CPS CWRS Oats Malt Yellow Feed Red Large Gr Wheat Peas Wheat Wheat

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