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WIOD 201028.05.2010, Vienna, Austria
www.seri.atwww.seri.at
CO2 Embodied in International Trade
Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005
Martin Bruckner, Stefan Giljum, Christine Polzin (SERI), Christian Lutz, Kirsten Svenja Wiebe (GWS mbH)
2WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Production vs. consumption based
• Model and data
• Results
Outline
3WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Production vs. consumption based
• Model and data
• Results
Outline
4WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Production based (territorial) accounting Advantage: data availability
UNFCCC (e.g. Kyoto Protocol)
• Consumption based accounting Modelling required
Consumer responsibility and climate justice
Consistency of climate policies
Production vs. consumption based
5WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Production vs. consumption based
• Model and data
• Results
Outline
6WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Model:
• True multi-regional IO-model
• Multi-directional trade
• 40 + 13 countries, 2 regions (OPEC, RoW)
• 48 sectors
Global Resource Accounting Model
7WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Data:
1. CO2 emissions (IEA)
2. IO tables (OECD)
3. Trade data (OECD)
Global Resource Accounting Model
8WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
1. CO2 emissions (IEA)
• IEA Energy Balances
• Emissions from fuel combustion
• Austria: 80% of GHG emissions
Global Resource Accounting Model
9WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
2. IO tables (OECD)• IO tables for 29 OECD countries and 11 non-OECD countries
• Assumption of equal IO structures for 14 countries (where
bilateral trade data were available)
• OPEC (structure of Indonesia), RoW (structure of Argentina)
• around the years 1995, 2000 and 2005
• Data are interpolated for the years in between
Global Resource Accounting Model
10WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
3. Trade data (OECD)
• STAN Bilateral trade data (BTD)
• Trade shares for 61 trade partners
• 25 commodities + services
Global Resource Accounting Model
11WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Production vs. consumption based
• Model and data
• Results
Outline
12WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Strong carbon leakage Share of increase of emissions in non-Annex-B countries in the
emission reductions in Annex-B countries (IPCC)
• Weak carbon leakage Emission imports from Annex-B to non-Annex-B countries (Peters
and Hertwich 2008)
• Changes over time
Carbon leakage
13WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
• Replacement of industries to countries with less
strict environmental regulations
• Satisfaction of increased demand by countries with
lower production costs
Reasons for carbon leakage
14WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Carbon leakage
1995 2005 Changes
Carbon leakage (ktonnes) 2,095,569 3,602,590 1,507,021
Share in global CO2 emissions 9.6% 12.8% 24.0%
15WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Imports and exports
Top 3 Net-Importers and Exporters of carbon emissions
16WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Consumption based emissions
17WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Carbon trade balances
18WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
1. Carbon leakage is increasing rapidly
2. Global targets of emission reduction will not be fulfilled without sharing responsibility between producers and consumers.
3. International co-operation will depend on accepting consumer responsibility.
Conclusions and policy recommendations
19WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner
Thank you!
Contact detailse-mail: [email protected]: www.seri.at/GRAM-CO2