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Wireless Developments to Watch
Michael F. Finneran
Principal, dBrn Associates, [email protected]
UC SUMMIT- 2015
www.dbrnassociates.com | © 2015, dBrn Associates, Inc. 2
Independent consultant and industry analyst specializing in wireless and mobility
Consult with vendors, carriers, investment analysts, end users and the legal community on the full range of mobility issues
Speak at numerous industry conferences including Interop, CTIA/4G World, and Enterprise Connect where I chair the mobility track
Write regularly on mobility topics for Information Week, NoJitter.com, Webtorials, Network Computing, and UCStrategies.com
Published hundreds of columns and articles as well as white papers, reports, product comparisons, and industry research including the State of UC and the State of Mobile Security surveys for Information Week
Wrote the book: Voice over Wireless LANs- The Complete Guide (Elsevier, 2008)
Masters Degree from the J L Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University and a long time member of the SCTC
2Michael F. Finneran
Principal, dBrn Associates, [email protected]
www.dbrnassociates.com | © 2015, dBrn Associates, Inc. 3
Session Topics
1. Big Doings in the 5 GHz. Band
o 802.11ac
o LTE- Unlicensed
2. Mobile UC and Social Collaboration
3. Internet of Things (and examples)
4. Wearables
5. Cloud RAN
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Gartner Worldwide Market Projections
2014
(000’s Units)
2015
(000’s Units)
PC Market(Desktops and Laptops)
308,472 316,689
Tablets 256,308 320,964(25.2% Growth)
Smartphones 1,862,766 1,946,456(4.5% Growth)
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Wi-Fi 802.11ac
• Next generation radio link
• Operates in 5 GHz band only
• Builds on 802.11n with wider channels, more efficient
signal encoding and more MIMO spectral streams
• Introduction coming in “waves”:
• Wave 1: Current
• Wave 2: Imminent
• Wave x: Maximum defined in the standard
• “It takes two to tango”- Access point and client most both
have the capability
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Wi-Fi: IEEE 802.11ac
Other 802.11ac Wave 2 Capabilities:
o Multi-User MIMO: Allows an AP to transmit to up to 4 clients simultaneously
o Standardized Beamforming: Supported not standardized in 802.11n
802.11n 802.11acWave 1
802.11acWave 2
802.11acStandard
Band 2.4 G or 5 GHz 5 GHz Only 5 GHz Only 5 GHz Only
Channel
Bandwidth
20M or 40 MHz 20M, 40M,
80 MHz
20M, 40M,
80M, 160 MHz
20M, 40M,
80M, 160 MHz
Bandwidth
Efficiency
≤64-QAM ≤256-QAM ≤256-QAM ≤256-QAM
Spatial
Streams
≤4
(Delivered ≤3)
≤3 ≤4 ≤8
Maximum Data
Rate
600 Mbps
(Delivered 450M)
1.3 Gbps 3.47 Gbps 6.93 Gbps
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Per Stream Data Rates7
Theoretical Maximum Data Rate per Spatial Stream (in Mbps)
MCSindex
Modulationtype
FECCoding
Rate
20 MHz Channel 40 MHz Channel 80 MHz Channel 160 MHz Channel
800ns GI 400ns GI 800ns GI 400ns GI 800ns GI 400ns GI 800ns GI 400ns GI
0 BPSK 1/2 6.5 7.2 13.5 15 29.3 32.5 58.5 65
1 QPSK 1/2 13 14.4 27 30 58.5 65 117 130
2 QPSK 3/4 19.5 21.7 40.5 45 87.8 97.5 175.5 195
3 16-QAM 1/2 26 28.9 54 60 117 130 234 260
4 16-QAM 3/4 39 43.3 81 90 175.5 195 351 390
5 64-QAM 2/3 52 57.8 108 120 234 260 468 520
6 64-QAM 3/4 58.5 65 121.5 135 263.3 292.5 526.5 585
7 64-QAM 5/6 65 72.2 135 150 292.5 325 585 650
8 256-QAM 3/4 78 86.7 162 180 351 390 702 780
9 256-QAM 5/6 N/A N/A 180 200 390 433.3 780 866.7
iPhone 6s: 2-Stream MIMO for 866 Mbps
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Comparison of a/g, n and ac
6.93 Gbps
3.47 Gbps
600 Mbps
54 Mbps
802.11a/g 802.11n 802.11acWave 2
802.11acWave 1
1.30 Gbps
802.11acStandard
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New Wi-Fi First Wireless Providers
• Google: Planning to resell Sprint and T-Mobile
wireless services in a Wi-Fi/cellular network service
• Republic Wireless: Unlimited voice, data and text for
$19/month on a Wi-Fi/cellular network service
(Can boot you off for excessive cellular use)
• Scratch Wireless: Free Wi-Fi network service and sells
cellular voice and data “passes”
• Cablevision: Freewheel Wi-Fi only service in NY area on
1.3 MM hotspot network for $9.95/mo. for customers and
$29.95/mo. for non-customers
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LTE-Unlicensed (LTE-U)
• Mobile operators use of the 5 GHz unlicensed band for LTE
transmissions
• Roughly 500 MHz available in the 5 GHz band and relatively uniform
assignment worldwide
• Allows carriers to increase LTE spectrum (and hence capacity)
without acquiring additional licensed spectrum
• Advocates claim better bandwidth efficiency than Wi-Fi
• Evolve: LTE-U support group formed by Verizon, AT&T, Qualcomm
and Alcatel-Lucent
• Evolve is battling with the Wi-Fi Alliance over who should be testing
for coexistence protocols
• Will have an impact on other users including
Wi-Fi (802.11a, n and ac) and 5 GHz cordless phones
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LTE-U Coexistence Strategies
• 1st Choice: Licensed channel (“Anchor Channel”)
• 2nd Choice: Unoccupied 5 GHz channel
• 3rd Choice: Time-slicing on occupied 5 GHz channel
• Roughly 50-50 split between LTE-U and other user(s)
• Different sharing procedure for countries with/without
“Listen Before Transmit” (LBT) requirements for unlicensed
bands
• Will reduce the transmission capacity for Wi-Fi users who
are sharing that channel
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LTE-U Coexistence
LTE
OffLTE On
LTE
Off
Long Gap
100+ msec.
Short Gaps
<10 msec.
Adaptive On/Off Duty Cycle with CSAT
(For non-LBT Regions)
Bursts
10 - 100 msec.
Listen Before Talk Based
Sensing Channel
UtilizationSensing Channel
Availability
Carrier Sense Adaptive Transmission (CSAT)
3GPP R10/11/12
3GPP R13
LTE On
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VoLTE Interoperability
• One of the next big challenges in mobile
• VoLTE will give the mobile operators the ability to support
wideband voice calls
• Interoperability only promised for mobile to mobile calls on
the same operator network
o AT&T and Verizon Wireless have announced plans for interoperability
testing
• No discussion of interoperability with wired wideband voice
systems
• This is a topic to watch closely
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UC on Wi-Fi
• Real time communications is still a challenge for Wi-Fi
• Capacity and Coverage • QoS
• “Stickiness” and handoffs • Disintegrated UX- Separate App
• Security at public hot spots • “Why bother?” Unlimited T & T
• Can potentially save money and improve performance
• Some important developments:
• Wi-Fi Alliance Mobile Multimedia Marketing Task Group (Voice over Wi-Fi)
• UC Software Defined Network (UC SDN)
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Mobile UC?
ConnectSolutions survey of Lync users found 1% of calls made
with the Lync Mobile Client
Why? The native smartphone interface does everything that
needs doing
“Simultaneous ring” delivers what people need for
“fixed-mobile convergence”
Adoption of social collaboration platforms (Cisco Spark, Circuit
by Unify, SfB Groups function) could change this!
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Internet of Things
• Network of physical objects or "things”
embedded with electronics, software, sensors
and network connectivity enabling them to collect and
exchange data
Term coined by Kevin Ashton in 1999
Functions: Locate, report and actuate
Gartner predicts 26 billion devices by 2020
Enormous potential to change how people live and work
Products have already started to appear
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IoT Application Areas
• Retail
• Targeted advertising
• Behavior monitoring
• Energy Management
• Belkin Wemo
• Nest Thermostats
• Home Automation
• Remote locks
• Security
• Garage Door Openers
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IoT Application Areas
• Transportation
• Fleet Management
• Driver Monitoring
• Toll Collection
• Parking Search
• OnStar
• Health Care
• Remote monitoring
• Emergency Response
• Metadata
• Traffic Alerts (Google Maps)
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Wireless Options
• Technology Options
• RFID- Passive, Active
• Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE)
• ZigBee- IEEE 802.15.4
• Near-Field Communications (NFC)
• Wi-Fi
• Cellular (+ GPS)
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iBeacons
• iBeacon is an Apple-defined short range, BLE-
based technology that enables a smart phone or
other device to perform actions when in close proximity to
a beacon
• Beacons advertise their presence and can cause apps in
the smartphone to access content or push notifications to
the user (requires Internet access for the smartphone)
• Initially aimed at retail applications (e.g. locate shopper in
the store, track traffic patterns, push coupons, etc.) but
lots of other potential use cases
• Early adopters finding challenges: battery replacement,
keeping track of which goes where, beacons failing to
stick to some surfaces, crosstalk, etc.
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iBeacon Components
Immediate = Centimeters
Near = Meters
Far = >10 Meters
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Beacon Operation
2a. App responds
locally
2b. App requests
content from a web site
1. Beacon sends
unsolicited message with
Universally Unique ID
(UUID)
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Competing Technologies
•Google’s Eddystone
•Samsung’s Placedge
•The Wi-Fi Alliance’s Wi-Fi AwareTM
(Uses Wi-Fi rather than BLE radio)
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Euclid Analytics
• Wi-Fi based retail monitoring system
• Monitors Wi-Fi ‘Probe’ messages from smartphones
• Measures signal power to judge proximity (e.g. in-store vs. passing by)
• Hashes the MAC address for privacy; can recognize new vs. repeat
visitors
• Info collected
• Number of people passing the store
• Number entering
• Duration of stay
• New Visitors
• Repeat visitors
• Changes based on sineage or promotions
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Cisco Connected Mobile Experience
• Wi-Fi based location tracking and customer engagement
for retail and other applications
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Wearables Bluetooth headsets still dominate the market
Technical Challenges Remain
o Battery life
o Need for associated smartphone
“Fashion challenges” are even greater
Approximately half of users stop wearing them
after a few months
Apple Watch could be the turning point
Nike Fitbit
Apple Watch
Motorola HC1
Galaxy Gear
“Glassholes”
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Cloud Radio Access Network (CRAN)
• New architecture for cellular networks
• Rather than locating the radio equipment at the cell site,
all of the ratio terminals or baseband units (BBUs) are co-
located with the the mobile switching center (MSC) or
“Mobile CO.”
• The RF output signal is converted to an optical signal and
sent over fiber pair to the cell site (i.e. “analog optical
transmission”)
• At the cell site the signal is converted back to RF by the
Remote Radio Head (RRH) and linked to the antenna.
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Traditional Radio Access Network (RAN)
Mobile Switching Center
(MSC)
PSTN
Backhaul: T-1, Private Microwave,
Metro Ethernet, Fiber
Base Transceiver Stations
(Cell Sites)
Radio Equipment
(Baseband Unit)
Remote
Radio HeadFiber
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Cloud Radio Access Network (CRAN)
MSC
PSTN
Cell Sites
Baseband Units (BBUs)/
RF-Fiber Converters
Remote
Radio Head
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3G/4G Cellular Data
3G Downstream (Mbps) Upstream (Mbps)Average Maximum Average Maximum
AT&T 5.7 16.2 1.0 2.3
Sprint 1.2 2.7 0.6 11.0
Verizon 0.9 2.8 0.5 17.6
T-Mobile 7.4 31.0 1.4 4.4
Source: PCMag “Fastest Mobile Networks 2015”
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2485838,00.asp
4G Downstream (Mbps) Upstream (Mbps)Average Maximum Average Maximum
AT&T 15.0 99.2 6.8 21.4
Sprint 12.7 72.0 5.3 19.3
Verizon 19.1 94.4 10.5 44.8
T-Mobile 15.3 100.0 12.3 39.6
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Next Gen Mobile Alliance Rqmts for 5G
• Data rates of several tens of megabits per second for tens
of thousands of users
• 1 Gbps to tens of workers on the same office floor
• Several hundreds of thousands of simultaneous
connections supported for massive sensor networks
• Spectral efficiency significantly greater than 4G
• Coverage should be improved
• Enhanced signaling efficiency
• Latency reduced significantly compared to LTE
• US tests to begin in 2016
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Wrap-up
• Mobile developments continue on all fronts but UC
vendors have not participated
• Social collaboration is the big hope but could be coopted
by start-ups
• Traditional markets saturated in developed countries
• Growth in LDCs (China and India primarily) and in new
applications of mobile technology (e.g. IoT and Metadata)
• Difficult to see what the next big hardware development
will be but wearables don’t seem to be it
• Mobile data growth, particularly video, will continue to
challenge the mobile operators
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Wireless Developments to Watch
Michael F. Finneran
Principal, dBrn Associates, Inc.
UC SUMMIT- 2015