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Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Development of Resource Use Intensity
A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios
Dominic WittmerThomas Lichtensteiger
ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technologyand
Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Observation:historical transfer of mineral resources
– extraction out of geosphere– accumulation in anthroposphere
Findings on “urban deposits”:• knowledge about is limited and random• lack of methods for their exploration –
especially the trace elements
Motivation
Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are
the raw materials of tomorrow
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
COPPERCharacteristics:• plasticity• electr. conductivity• therm. conductivity• warm colour• alloyability• recyclability
MotivationObservation:historical transfer of mineral resources
– extraction out of geosphere– accumulation in anthroposphere
Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are
the raw materials of tomorrow
Findings on “urban deposits”:• knowledge about is limited and random• lack of methods for their exploration –
especially the trace elements
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
SUBSTANCE FLOW ANALYSIS
characterising
RECORDING
growth curves
DYNAMIC MODELLING(SFA)
scenarios
SURVEY OF THE STOCKS
Methodical Procedure
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
demandfor products
demandfor products
Driving and driven – Perception of the Metabolism
FLOWS STOCKSNEEDS
consequence
consequence
stock-drivenapproach
flow-drivenapproach
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
2000Flows andS tocks
system boundary switzerland
anorg. resources(incl. deposits)
trade infrastructure
buildings
soils andaquatic systems
supply
copper
secondary copper to production and trade
secondary copper to deposit
abrasion of overhead wire
runoff ofroofs
ImportsGoodssemi-finished goodsscrap
Exportsgoodssemi-finished goodsscrap
productionwaste managementdeconstruction
mobiles
mobileProdukte
installedlines
installedproducts
uninstalledproducts
uninstalledproducts
disusedproducts
productionwaste
abrasion of vehicle brakes
System Analysis: Regional copper management
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Survey of the Stocks: Buildings
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
AR – Application Ranges PG – Product Groups
Power systems • Power cables
Telecommunication systems • Telecommunication cables
Water systems • Water pipes• Fittings• Raw armatures
Heating systems • Heating pipes• Fittings• Raw armatures
Roofs • Roofing• Cladding of dormer windows• Gutters and down pipes• Lightning conductors
Structuring the Copper Stock in BuildingsRelevant Application Ranges and affiliated Product Groups
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Definition and determination of key sizes (per product group):
• installation density
• specific mass
• copper concentration
• frequency of products
• frequency of the material (Cu)
Survey of the Stocks: Buildings
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Utilisation types & age classes
main stock referencing parameter („density“)
substance massper functional unit
frequencies
Buildings ID(reference area) specific mass cCu fM fP
Infrastructure NDA or NDEW specific mass - fM -
Movables - (-) specific mass cCu - fP
partial stock withinthe building stock
• 4 utilisation types
• 4 age classes (per quarter)
• 14 product groups
yr of construction/renovation
ARK-buildingOFB
1901-1925 1926-1950 1951-1975 1976-2000
ARK-buildingMFB
ARK-buildingSB
ARK-buildingPB
Mi,EFH=
Mi,MFH=
Mi,PRG=
Mi,DLG=
NEFH ·
NMFH ·
NPRG ·
NDLG ·
mi,MFH
mi,PRG
mi,DLG
mi,EFH
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
SB6 MFB
12
PRB6
OFB8
roofs (32)
sanitary systems (9)
OFB2.5
PRB1
SB1.5
MFB4
heating systems (13)
OFB5
MFB6
SB2
PRB<1
power systems (24)
PRB6
OFB3
MFB6SB
9
OFB: one-family buildingsMFB: multi-family buildingsSB: service buildingsPRB: production buildings
Copper Stocks in Buildings per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita] rounded, divided into the four utilisation types, 2000
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
transformers5 kg/capita
overhead power wires 9 kg/capita
cables74 kg/capita
telecommunicationnetwork
16 kg/capita
traffic 2 kg/capita
electricitynetwork
88 kg/capita
Copper Stocks in Infrastructure per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita], 2000
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Copper stock development shown by the example of one-family buildings
Elektroinsta
llatio
n
Telekommunika
tion
Heizungsin
stalla
tion
Sanitärin
stalla
tion
Bedachung/A
bdeckung
Dachentw
ässerung
Dachgaupen
Blitzableite
r III
IIIIV
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
product groups
copper stock[in 1000 t]
I
II
III
IV
Quartale25 a
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
steel
copper
syntheticmaterial
composed
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
time
inst
alla
tio
n s
har
e [%
]
Source: expert interviews (SELM 2002) and technical literature.
resultsStock Development
Temporal Variability of the Frequency of Copper (fM)Example: heating pipes in panel heating, given in [%] market share
cuprothermco
pp
er
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign Trade ofCopper Goods
[1'000 t/a]
0
20'000
40'000
60'000
80'000
100'000
120'000
140'000
160'000
180'000Inhabitants
[1'000]
Population
Imports
Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Per-CapitaNet Imports of Copper Goods[kg/(capita*a)]
Historical foreign trade statisticsData used for calibration of dynamic model
Net Addition to Stock, 20th century(incl. landfill)• rising from 1 to >10 kg/capita*a• now decoupling ?
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
2000
1950
1925
1975
1900
original system: 56 system variables, 45 system parameters
1900
2000
1950
Switzerland, 1900
Copperper capita (1900)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
trade+ production
Switzerland, 1950
Copperper capita (1950)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
Switzerland, 2000
Copperper capita (2000)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
rejects fromproduction
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
rejects fromproduction
rejects fromproduction
Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Results of the dynamic modelling
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
1900
2000
1950
Switzerland, 1900
Copperper capita (1900)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
trade+ production
Switzerland, 1950
Copperper capita (1950)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
Switzerland, 2000
Copperper capita (2000)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
rejects fromproduction
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
rejects fromproduction
rejects fromproduction
1900
2000
1950
Switzerland, 1900
Copperper capita (1900)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
trade+ production
Switzerland, 1950
Copperper capita (1950)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
Switzerland, 2000
Copperper capita (2000)stocks kgstock increase/flows
kg/year
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
trade+ production
environmental compartments
dismantling +waste treatment
movables
infrastructure
buildings
inorg. resources(incl. landfill)
rejects fromproduction
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
secondary copper to landfill
imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)
secondary copper for trade + production
movable products
installedlines
installedcomponents
runoff fromroofs
uninstalled components
abrasion of contact wires
disusedproductis
abrasion of vehicle breaks
rejects fromproduction
rejects fromproduction
results of the dynamic modelling:snapshots in the20th century 1900
1950
resultsSystem
2000 1950 1900
Movables +0.6 +0.2 +0.1
Infrastructure +0.6 +1.0 +0.8
Buildings +1.1 +0.6 +0.2
Total +2.3 +1.8 +1.1
Net Addition to Stock, per (capita*a)
Copper Household of Switzerland
2000
Movables +0.6
Infrastructure +0.6
Buildings +1.1
Total +2.3
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Influence of Building Conversion on the Copper HouseholdScenario: production buildings (PB) → multi-family buildings (MFB)
discussionScenario (I)
318'000 t 351'000 t
261118
PB GFARA
675252
414134
MFB GFARA
gross floor area (GFA)roofage area (RA)
given in [106 m2]
„Conversion“
(PB + MFB)
roofs
sanitary systems
heating systems
telecomm.systems
power systems
0
100
200
300
400
"Status quo"
Szenario Ia
stock [1'000 t]
-15kt
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
discussionScenario(I)
25
31
47
7
45
76
0
20
40
60
80
roofs heating+watersystems
elec.+telec.systems
stock change
[1'000 t] inputoutput
pipes andraw armatures
cablessheets
Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Scenario: induced stock changes and flows, respectively
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Growth Curves of the Stocksgiven in [kg/capita]
discussionDynamic Model
linear-logistic
stocks in buildings (total)
inorganic resources, incl. deposits environmental compartments
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Fluss[kg/(capita*a)]
“use loss”
flow
Consequences
100 %
“self supply”
• self supply will about double within next 100yrs• „use losses“ to landfill will generally correlate with stock size• avg. life time: immovabels 40±20 a, movables 14±7a
prolongation (violet) 60±20 a, movables 20±7ashortening (turqois) 30±10 a, movables 10±7a
Fluss[kg/(capita*a)]
30-50%
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
N.B.: Stocks in landfills not considered for „Stockholm“ and „Schweden“, grey area for US. Sources: USA (Zeltner et al. 1999); Stockholm (Sörme et al. 2001); Schweden (Landner und Lindeström 1998); Cape Town (van Beers und Graedel 2003); Welt 2000; (Lichtensteiger 2002); Welt 1950 (Henstock 1996).
Comparison of Total Copper Stock for Selected Regions
50
14
290
50
170
140
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Welt, 1950
Welt, 2000
Cape Town (South Africa ), 2000
Sweden, 1999
Stockholm, 1995
USA, 1990
stocks[kg/capita]
CH
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
0 20 40 60 80
Cape Town
Stockholm
Schweiz
copper stock [kg/capita]
Roof
Sanitary systems
Heating systems
Telecommunication systems
Power systems
Regional Comparison of Copper Stock in Buildings
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
• “Urban exploration” by combination of SFA, survey of stocks and retrospective modelling
• Methodical results indicate that stock-driven approach are adequate for understanding and forecasts of long-living goods
• Application of the exploration method on other substances
• Drafts for a Zinc model are planned with methodical emphasis on comparison between elements and countries
Outlook
Conclusions
Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06
Dominic WittmerThomas Lichtensteiger
ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technologyand
Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Contact address:Dominic Wittmer [email protected] Holding AG, SwitzerlandDivision of Environmental Geology, Contaminated Sites and Waste Deposits
Development of Resource Use Intensity
A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios