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19.06.13 – 23.06.13 Racing Post Weekender ‘Andre Fabre’s exciting Rail Link colt has a dosage that gives him a good chance of improving again when tried at this trip’ Estimate holds the aces in stamina department Steve Miller Our dosage expert finds the leading staying prospects for the Gold Cup Dosage clues for the Ascot Gold Cup Horse Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD Estimate Monsun/Darshaan 0-0-11-9-6 = 26 0.27 -0.81 High Jinx High Chaparral/Surumu 2-0-7-5-2 = 16 0.52 -0.31 Colour Vision Rainbow Quest/Monsun 8-0-20-14-4 = 46 0.64 -0.13 Times Up Olden Times/Ile De Bourbon 2-0-7-3-2 = 14 0.65 -0.21 Last Train Rail Link/Rainbow Quest 2-2-13-7-2 = 26 0.68 -0.19 Repeater Montjeu/Mark Of Esteem 2-1-10-4-1 = 18 0.80 -0.06 Saddler’s Rock Sadler’s Wells/Groom Dancer 7-1-22-8-4 = 42 0.83 -0.02 Altano Galileo/Lando 3-0-7-4-0 = 14 0.87 0.14 Vadamar Dalakhani/Unfuwain 3-0-6-1-2 = 12 1.00 0.08 Model Pupil Sinndar/Sadler’s Wells 4-3-14-7-0 = 28 1.00 0.14 Earl Of Tinsdal Black Sam Bellamy/Dashing Blade 5-0-10-4-1 = 20 1.00 0.20 Number Theory Halling/Barathea 5-0-8-4-1 = 18 1.00 0.22 El Salvador Galileo/Kris 6-0-10-5-1 = 22 1.00 0.23 Rite Of Passage Giant’s Causeway/Kris S 3-2-33-1-1 = 40 1.16 0.13 Simenon Marju/Alzao 4-1-8-3-0 = 16 1.29 0.38 Top Trip Dubai Destination/Kahyasi 7-1-11-5-0 = 24 1.29 0.42 Biographer Montjeu/Seeking The Gold 7-4-15-4-0 = 30 1.61 0.47 Aaim To Prosper Val Royal/Ahonoora 7-4-5-2-0 = 18 3.00 0.89 Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution. The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential DOSAGE PROFILE OF THE ASCOT GOLD CUP FIELD Year Horse DI CD 2012 Colour Vision 0.64 -0.13 2011 Fame And Glory 0.65 -0.25 2010 Rite Of Passage 1.16 0.13 2009 Yeats 0.89 0.08 2008 Yeats 0.89 0.08 2007 Yeats 0.89 0.08 2006 Yeats 0.89 0.08 2005 Westerner 1.53 0.25 2004 Papineau 0.88 -0.04 Average 0.93 DOSAGE PROFILE OF PAST GOLD CUP WINNERS Last year’s winner Colour Vision returns to defend his title, but recent form is worrying R ETIRED US jockey and trainer, Danny Perlsweig, once noted that a horse can get any distance if you give it enough time. This grasps an essential truth that the perceived attributes of speed and stamina are far from mutually exclusive and in fact should rather be seen as a form or expression of the same thing, that of endurance under stress (with stress defined as sustained pace). While few thoroughbreds genuinely stay 2m4f, the horse able to sustain the greatest overall pace at the distance will win. It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum performance when asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give. Consequently, it is common for horses who do manage to get the balance about right to win the race more than once (Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s). The table includes the 18 in this year’s renewal. As usual it is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top, ranked in order of Dosage index (DI). Note that the top eight have negative centres of distribution (CD), indicating pronounced stamina aptitude. The Saeed Bin Suroor- trained Colour Vision saw off Opinion Poll and Saddler’s Rock to land this last year. The five-year-old gelding’s sire and damsire, Rainbow Quest and Monsun, are Classic/Solid chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) and consequently the gelding has a particularly high concentration of 18 points in the stamina wing of his profile, putting him on a prime DI of 0.64 for victory here, as highlighted in last year’s column on this race. However, he has proved unsuccessful in five outings since winning this. Times Up got the better of High Jinx by a neck in last season’s Doncaster Cup and was earlier successful against the same opponent in York’s Lonsdale Cup. On respective DIs of 0.65 and 0.52, they flank Colour Vision in a sweet spot in our table. The John Oxx trained five-year-old entire Saddler’s Rock had to narrowly give best to the Godolphin pair in this race last season. Although he reversed form with Colour Vision at Goodwood at the beginning of August he has not made the frame in six subsequent starts. However, he relishes a test of stamina and is useful. Rite Of Passage, the winner of the 2010 Gold Cup, has raced only twice since that victory winning the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last October. He clearly stays very well, even better than the Dosage suggests. The nine-year-old gelding has won four of his five starts on the Flat, finding only Fame And Glory too good. He goes for this without a prep. The Queen’s Monsun filly ESTIMATE appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude. The Sagaro Stakes winner is out of the Darshaan mare Ebaziya and consequently a half-sister to Enzeli, who won this in 1999. She is yet to race beyond two miles, but the four-year-old filly is likely to excel at this extended trip with a Dosage reading for extreme stamina potential. Sir Michael Stoute trained an Ascot Gold Cup winner in Shangamuzo in 1978. The last filly to win the Gold Cup was Indian Queen when landing odds of 25-1 in 1991. The Willie Mullins-trained Simenon was a dual winner at Royal Ascot last year and ran a terrific race when fourth under top weight in the Chester Cup last time out, his only run this season. The six-year-old gelding comes into his own at trips above two miles, but on a pure Dosage reading others are preferred at this level. The David Lanigan-trained Biographer is a son of Montjeu out of a Seeking The Gold mare. The four-year-old colt is a progressive middle-distance-to-staying sort and may improve again for stepping up in trip. The Andreas Wohler-trained seven-year-old gelding Altano may be joined by dual Group 1 winning stablemate Earl Of Tinsdal, providing there is enough give for this soft-ground specialist. Both have points in the stamina wing of their Dosage profiles. Francois Doumen fields Top Trip, winner of the Group 2 1m3f Prix Hocquart in France and was beaten a nose in the Yorkshire Cup last time out. By Dubai Destination out of a Kahyasi mare, a mixture of speed and stamina influences are evident in his profile. France is also represented by Andre Fabre’s Last Train and Mikel Delzangles’ Vadamar. Last Train is an exciting Group-winning colt at two miles, by Arc winner Rail Link, with another Arc winner in Rainbow Quest as his dam sire. The Dosage gives him good chances of improving again when tried at this trip. Vadamar is a five-year-old Group 2 winner by Dalakhani who won a Longchamp conditions race last time out. He should stay beyond middle distances. The Sir Mark Prescott-trained Repeater, by Montjeu out of a Mark Of Esteem mare, should also stay well enough in theory but may be out of his depth in terms of class. Negative centre of distribution If (in crude terms) a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1 and ideally a negative CD (the last couple of winners are ideal examples of what we should be looking for). Past winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Colour Vision (DI 0.64, CD -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65, -0.25), Papineau (0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05), while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of CD. Shortlist There are eight in this year’s race with negative CDs and a DI of below 1: Estimate (DI 0.27, CD -0.81), High Jinx (0.52, -0.31), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Times Up (0.65, -0.21), Last Train (0.68, -0.19), Repeater (0.80, -0.06) and Saddler’s Rock (0.83, -0.02), with Altano close to qualifying. We shouldn’t ignore Estimate’s reading for pronounced stamina potential and consequently she is the selection. As past winners of this race, Colour Vision and Rite Of Passage have obvious chances if capturing previous form, as does Saddler’s Rock. Times Up and High Jinx flank Colour Vision in a sweet spot in our table and Last Train is an exciting contender who should be right there when push comes to shove, at a big price for place backers. Verdict 1. ESTIMATE oo9 2. Last Train oo9 (place) 3. Saddler’s Rock More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd. 11
