WMO

Status and Plans of the SWFDP – Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project  

Ken MylneChair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems)

& Chair SWFDP SG

WMO; WDS

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) “Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

WMO

Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” (Global to Regional to National)

Improve lead-time of Warnings

Improve interaction of NMHSs with users

Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

SWFDP Main Goals

Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

5

Global Centres

User communities, including Disaster

Management authorities

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas

and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through

dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance Products from SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC PretoriaRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards

Reg

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al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Glo

bal

Cen

tres

RS

MC

s-T

C

Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products

TCP

LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability)

GDPFS

Nat

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et C

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)

PWS

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Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR)

Feedback and Verification

PWS, HWR, WCP

Ge

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isa

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Sp

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, M

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, A

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etc

.)AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Satellite Imagery

and Tools

SP

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized

ApplicationsAgM, MMO,

AeM, WCP, etc.

WW

RP

Research Projects

Flash Flood Guidance

HWR

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Observing and

information systems

WIG

OS

, WIS

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress)WMO

Focus on:

Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells

Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains:

5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)

Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Started September 2011

Lake Victoria

Around 3000 people/yr die in boating accidents

Satellite imagery and ATD provide scope for nowcasting

4km UM provided Mobile phones for

communication

Diurnal forcing of convection

Lake at night; high ground to East by day

Met Office 4km UM - 0200-0800UTC 15/3/13

WMO

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La Réunion)

Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)

Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)

Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)

Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)

WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR,

CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

SWFDP Regional Projects

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds – High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore

damaging waves, landslides); • Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS) • Forecast Verification• Phase-in other developments• Training for forecasters and disaster managers

• Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations – Internet-based

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)

SWFDP: - Southern Africa- Eastern Africa- Southwest Pacific- Southeast Asia

Global Hazard Map

Summary map to track features through days of forecast

Daily map to overlay different hazards and

vulnerability layers

WMO

SWFDP – Resources

Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g. ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDP-related meetings

Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members

Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. World Bank, etc.)

Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS and AgM

Future directions and role of the SWFDP

More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs

Hydro-meteorological hazards Sector-specific hazards (e.g.

agriculture, marine, etc.) Beyond day-5

Vehicle for introducing promising R&D

Cross-programme guidance Regular budget and

extrabudgetary resourses Project Office

Ultimate Goal:

Establishing a National Severe Weather Warnings Programme for every Member of WMO

Technical Requirements for SWFDP Benefit

Cascading of SWFDP products and guidance uses: Simple web pages Products as Images including

animation

Requirements to benefit: Web-browser Low band-width connection

Forecaster and PWS training Highly efficient and cost-

effective Capacity Building

www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attention

DISCUSSION