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Weekly Markets
Perspectives
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
n
Jan
ua
ry1
4th
,2
01
3
At the ECB meeting’s press conference, Mario Draghi
seemed more hawkish. Now, the market believe that a
rate cut is less likely in the next few months. EURUSD
has rallied strongly on the news.
Meanwhile, Spain held last week its first bond
auction of 2013. The country raised €5.8bn vs. €5bn
targeted. The 10yr Spanish bond finished the week
below 5%. Given current market momentum,
investors seem to believe that Spain no longer will
need to trigger OMT in Q1 2013. The Spanish Treasury
said that it plans to issue a total of €215bn to €230bn
worth of bonds in 2013.
Last week was a positive one for the European
Banking sector. Sentiment in the sector was helped by
the headlines suggesting that the Basel Committe had
relaxed bank liquidity coverage rules and pushed out
the timetable for its implementation. Moreover, BES
and Banco Popular tapped the bond market. Both
issues suggest a progressive reopening of the
wholesale funding market for Iberian banks.
Weekly SummaryIn the US, American Express surprised the market
with an earlier that expected profit release. Alcoa
announced a relatively upbeat 2013 guidance.
In Japan, Mr. Abe announced a JPY10tr fiscal
stimulus package. According to the local press, the
BoJ and the government will establish cooperation
in order to set a 2% inflation target.
In Portugal, the domestic banking sector finished
the week with impressive gains. An IMF report
was released pointing to various areas of reform
for the Portuguese public sector and presented
several proposals for the government to cut €4bn
(2% of GDP) in public spending. Jerónimo Martins
released in-line Q4 2012 sales. Its stock price
surged 6.1%, its biggest daily gain in five months.
JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank
of America, Citigroup, Intel and GE will release
results this week. In Europe, Carrefour will
announce Q4 2012 sales.
Industrial Production
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
German Industrial Production and
Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (LHS) Industrial Production (y/y, %, RHS)
11.8
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Euro-zone Unemployment rate (%)
Euro-zone: Unemployment rate
at a new record high• The euro area unemployment rate increased
0.1pp to a new all-time high in November 2012
at 11.8%;
• The number of unemployed in Germany is at its
low since October 1991. The unemployment
rate was unchanged at 5.4%;
• In Spain, the unemployment rate rose 0.4pp to
an all-time high at 26.6%. The youth
unemployment rate increased from 55.8% in
October to 56.5% in November.
German industrial production
rises in November• German industrial output increased 0.2% m/m,
after shrinking for three consecutive months,
significantly below consensus (1.0% m/m);
• The figures were depressed by a significant drop in
energy output. Industrial production in Germany’s
construction sector went up 1.0% m/m, but the
manufacturing component only rose 0.4% m/m.
Consumer durables slumped 2.2%, suggesting
weakness in the consumer activity.
Source: Eurostat Source: Bundesbank, Bloomberg
Banque de France business
climate rises in December 2012• In December 2012, the Banque de France
industrial sentiment indicator rose to 95 from
91 a month earlier. This index reached its
highest level since March 2012. It suggests that
the recovery in industrial activity might be
gathering pace;
• Activity in the service sector remained
unchanged at 91 in December 2012;
• The Banque de France expects Q4 2012 GDP to
contract by 0.1% q/q.
Spain: Exports continue to
perform well • November 2012 data on sales for large firms (2/3
of total Spanish firm sales) were released. Sales
were down 6.4% y/y, with the sharpest fall being
registered in the construction sector;
• Domestic sales continue to contract, while exports
by large firms are growing at a healthy pace;
• Nominal wages fell for the third consecutive
month (-0.1% y/y in November 2012);
• Domestic demand seems to continue experiencing
a contraction.
Source: Banque de France
Spain: Monthy sales by large firms (y/y, %)
Total Sales Domestic Sales Total Exports Total Imports
Jan-12 -3.9 -5.1 1.7 -0.7
Fev-12 -5.2 -6.0 -1.9 -10.2
Mar-12 -6.9 -8.1 -1.9 -13.0
Abr-12 -7.3 -9.0 0.3 -8.3
Mai-12 -5.9 -7.3 0.1 -13.5
Jun-12 -2.1 -2.7 0.8 -8.3
Jul-12 -6.5 -8.8 4.3 -3.1
Ago-12 -1.5 -2.3 2.0 -5.6
Set-12 -10.2 -11.8 -3.0 -10.6
Out-12 -7.7 -9.9 2.5 -4.5
Nov-12 -6.4 -8.5 2.6 -8.5
Source: Spanish Tax Agency
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Banque de France Business Sentiment
Industries Services
ECB: More upbeat than expected
• The ECB left its interest rates unchanged last
week, including the main refinancing rate at
0.75% and the deposit rate at 0.0%;
• According to Mario Draghi, no Council
members requested a rate cut at the meeting.
In December, some Governing Council
members had voted for a cut in interest rates;
• The ECB expects the economy to stay weak at
the beginning of 2013 with a gradual recovery
later in the year;
• President Draghi’s comments in the Q&A
session were more upbeat than what was
expected by the market. He listed a number of
positive developments, including the
stabilization of some leading indicators, the
improvement in financial market confidence, a
fall in current account imbalances, and a fall in
TARGET2 balances;
• The press statement asked for “further progress
in fiscal consolidation” and for “further
structural reforms…”.
Spain: Q3 2012 national accounts
were released• The savings rate for households reached 7.0% of
disposable income (9.1% in Q3 2011) and
disposable income fell by -2.1% y/y, reflecting
falling wages and higher taxes;
• In Q3 2012, the general government deficit/GDP
ratio excluding net capital transfers was -8.6%
(-8.7% in Q2 and -8.8% in Q1). The 2012 year-end
target is 6.3% of GDP;
• Non-financial corporations have seen 11.8%
growth in disposable income, suggesting that NFCs
are cutting costs rapidly.
Source: Bloomberg
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain Monthly Current Account (€bn)
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Portugal Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate for youths (under 25) (%, LHS)
Total Unemployment Rate (%, RHS)
Portugal: Unemployment rate
remained stable at 16.3%• In November, the unemployment rate in
Portugal remained stable at 16.3%;
• The unemployment rate for youths (under 25)
declined from 39.0% in October to 38.7% in
November;
• GDP contraction and ongoing fiscal
consolidation continue to weigh on labor
market conditions.
Portugal: Government is
expected to focus on expenditure
cuts• The legality of the 2013 Budget is being
challenged with several requests sent to the
Constitutional Court to judge whether they are
against the Constitution;
• In a comment to the Jan-Nov 2012 fiscal data, the
independent parliamentary fiscal watchdog said
that the 2012 government budget deficit target
(5% of GDP) would only be possible via one-off
measures. Tax revenues continue lagging behind
government estimates;
• An IMF report released last week suggested
various areas of reform for the Portuguese public
sector and presented several proposals for the
government to cut €4bn (2% of GDP) in public
spending. The report said that the wage bill and
pension spending would need to be reduced in
order to generate the government’s spending
reduction goals.Source: Eurostat
Portugal: Construction sector
remains depressed• The index of production in construction fell by
-19.3% y/y in the quarter ending in November
2012, down from -18.0% in October 2012.
Employment and wages in the sector registered
y/y change rates of -19.0% and -20.3% in
November, respectively;
• Exports and imports of goods decreased by
-0.1% y/y and -3.6% y/y, respectively, in the
quarter ended in November 2012. The deficit in
the trade balance fell by €511mn;
Portugal: Domestic demand
remains weak• The industrial new orders index fell by -5.0% y/y in
November 2012, following a reduction of -5.2% in
October 2012. The domestic index decreased by
-15.0% y/y (-16.3% y/y in October 2012), while
new orders from the external market rose 2.2%
y/y (3.0% y/y in the previous month);
• Portuguese banks’ NPL ratio rose from 9.97% to
10.2% in November 2012 (the highest level since
1997), in the corporate segment, while credit
granted to companies fell by -8% y/y. In the
household segment, the NPL ratio rose to 3.8%,
while credit granted fell by -4% y/y.
Source: Statistical Office of Portugal
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Domestic Industrial New Orders (y/y)
Source: Statistical Office of Portugal
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Monthly Treasury Federal Budget ($bn)
Sharp widening in US trade
deficit in November • The trade deficit increased to a seven-month
high of $48.7bn in November (above de
consensus forecast at $43.1bn), from $42.1bn
in the previous month;
• In real terms, the deficit jumped to a four-year
high of $51.9bn, from $46bn in October;
• Nominal exports rose by 1.0% m/m and non-oil
imports increased by 4.4% m/m;
• The bilateral deficit with China decreased
slightly in November, but it increased sharply
with the Euro-zone, particularly Germany.
US budget deficit narrows by
$86bn relative to year-ago levels• The NFIB index of small business optimism rose
to 88.0 from 87.5 in December, only a small
rebound after the decline from 93.1 in October,
probably reflecting concerns about the
economic outlook due to the “fiscal cliff”;
• The US federal budget deficit was $0.3bn in
December 2012, $86bn less than the December
2011 print. This brings the deficit to $292bn for
Q1 of FY2013, a 9.1% decrease relative to the
same period in FY2012, largely driven by higher
revenues.
Source: US Dept. of Commerce
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Monthly International Trade Balance ($bn)
Nominal
Real
Source: US Treasury
Japan: Abe administration
announces a JPY10tr emergency
economic stimulus package• During the recent election, the LDP promised to
implement a first emergency economic stimulus
package right away and implement new
economic policies;
• Since taking office on December 26th, the Abe
administration has been aggressively moving
with fiscal and monetary policy initiatives with
the goal of winning a majority in the July 2013
upper house elections.
China: December money and
credit supply below expectations• CPI rose to 2.5% y/y (consensus: 2.3%), following
2.0% y/y in November, reflecting higher food
inflation;
• December money and credit supply was below
market expectations. New CNY loans were
Rmb454.3bn in December 2012 (consensus:
Rmb550bn);
• The December trade data was encouraging.
Exports up 14.1% y/y (consensus: 5.0%). Imports
rose 6.0% y/y (consensus: 3.5%)
Source: MoF
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Japan Monthly Non-adjusted Current Account Balance
(JPYbn)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China CPI Inflation (%)
Source: NBS
• BPI (BPI PL), BCP (BCP PL) and BES (BES PL) were the main
winners last week in the PSI20 Portuguese stock benchmark
index. BES has announced it has issued €500mn 5-year bonds
with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap + 400bps. This is another
signal of progressive reopening of wholesale funding markets to
Portuguese banks. Moreover, Portuguese banks funding from
the ECB stood at €52.78bn at the end December 2012. This
represents a decline of €1.82bn from the €54.61bn registered in
the previous month;
• Mota-Engil (EGL PL), the Portuguese construction company, rose
more than 9% over last week. Mr. Jorge Coelho resigned as
Chairman of the Executive Committee and Vice Chairman of the
company. The new CEO, Mr. Gonçalo Martins (former CFO), gave
an interview to the local press saying that the company will
continue following the strategic plan already announced. The
group’s growth remains focused in Africa and Latam;
• Portugal Telecom (PTC PL)’s shares increased 8.9%. The Brazilian
Development Bank has approved a loan of BRL5.4bn to Oi to
support the company’s investment plans for the 2012-14 period.
The project includes investments in expanding and improving the
capacity of the broadband network, fixed and mobile, cable TV
infrastructure, and investments in information technology.
PSI20 weekly review
Source: Bloomberg
40
44
48
52
56
60
2011 2012 2013
American Express (AXP US) Stock Price ($)
$61.24
• Ford (F US)’s stock price increased 3.2% over last week.
The automaker announced that it will double its
shareholder dividend. Ford raised its quarterly dividend to
$0.10 per share from $0.05 per share, which raises the
annual payout to $1.5bn from $762mn;
• American Express (AXP US) rose 2.73%. The company pre-
announced in-line Q4 2012 earnings and a restructuring
plan including a $400mn restructuring charge given
changing industry dynamics, a $342mn rewards related
liability adjustment and a $153mn charge for
reimbursements. Full earnings will be released after the
close on January 17th;
• Nokia (NOK1V FH) pre-announced positively on Thursday.
The company indicated that faster than expected cost cuts
allowed a material beat in Networks. Nokia expects 13-
15% operating margins vs. Consensus 8%. Devices showed
a narrower loss, driven by higher Asha volumes and lower
opex. Nokia sees Q4 operating margin of 0-2% vs.
Consensus -6%. Q4 2012 Devices & Services sales were
€3.9bn, vs. Consensus €3.8bn. Total devices volume
reached 86.3mn units vs. Consensus 89mn.
Last week’s market highlights
Source: Bloomberg
$14.00
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2011 2012
Ford (F US) Share Price ($)
1.7
-6.2
-2.5
10.8
2.2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan
Nokia (NOK1V FH) Daily Stock Price Changes (%)
What we are watching this week:• Euro-zone industrial production for November is due
Monday and is expected to improve to -3.1% y/y
(from -3.6% in the previous month). German GDP
annual data for 2012 will be release on Tuesday;
• Final December inflation data for Germany, Italy and
Spain is due Tuesday and is likely to be unchanged
from its flash estimates. Final December inflation
data for the Euro-zone should be released
Wednesday. It is expected to remain unchanged
from its earlier estimate of 2.2% y/y;
• In the UK, the CPI, RPI, and PPI should be disclosed
Tuesday. December retail sales data is due Friday
and retail sales ex auto and fuel are expected to
increase by 2.0% y/y;
• In the US, retail sales ex autos and fuel (due
Tuesday) are expected to increase by 0.4% m/m,
following 0.7% m/m in the previous month. Housing
starts, housing permits and the housing market
index are expected to increase. The December CPI
will be released Wednesday. It should remain
unchanged (1.8% y/y) from the previous month.
Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior
Public Holiday, Japan 14-Jan
Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on US Economy in Atlanta 14-Jan 21:00
Industrial Production nsa y/y, Italy 14-Jan 09:00 -0.3%
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda y/y, Euro-Zone 14-Jan 10:00 -3.1% -3.6%
Machine Tool Orders y/y, Japan 15-Jan 06:00 -21.3%
CPI y/y, Germany 15-Jan 07:00 2.1% 2.1%
GDP y/y NSA, Germany 15-Jan 08:00 0.8% 3.0%
Consumer Price Index y/y, Spain 15-Jan 08:00 2.9% 2.9%
CPI - EU Harmonized y/y, Italy 15-Jan 09:00 2.6% 2.6%
CPI y/y, UK 15-Jan 09:30 2.7% 2.7%
Euro-Zone Trade Balance, Euro-Zone 15-Jan 10:00 10.0B 10.2B
Retail Sales y/y, Brazil 15-Jan 11:00 8.10% 9.10%
Empire Manufacturing, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.0 -8.1
Advance Retail Sales, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.2% 0.3%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.4% 0.7%
Producer Price Index y/y, US 15-Jan 13:30 1.4% 1.5%
Business Inventories, US 15-Jan 15:00 0.3% 0.4%
EU27 New Car Registrations, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 07:00 -10.3%
Trade Balance (Total) (Euros), Italy 16-Jan 09:00 2660M 2452M
Euro-Zone CPI y/y, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 10:00 2.2% 2.2%
Consumer Price Index y/y, US 16-Jan 13:30 1.8% 1.8%
Industrial Production, US 16-Jan 14:15 0.3% 1.1%
Capacity Utilization, US 16-Jan 14:15 78.5% 78.4%
NAHB Housing Market Index, US 16-Jan 15:00 48.0 47.0
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 16-Jan 19:00
ECB Publishes Monthly Report, Euro-Zone 17-Jan 09:00
Housing Starts, US 17-Jan 13:30 890K 861K
Building Permits, US 17-Jan 13:30 905K 899K
Initial Jobless Claims, US 17-Jan 13:30 370K 371K
Philadelphia Fed., US 17-Jan 15:00 6.0 8.1
Real GDP y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 7.8% 7.4%
Industrial Production y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 10.2% 10.1%
Retail Sales y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 15.0% 14.9%
Industrial Production y/y, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 -5.8%
Capacity Utilization m/m, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 1.6%
Industrial Orders n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -0.1%
Industrial Sales n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -4.7%
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel y/y, UK 18-Jan 09:30 2.0% 2.0%
U. of Michigan Confidence, US 18-Jan 14:55 75.0 72.9
Source: Bloomberg, Fincor
-0.4%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.8%
0.0%
0.5%
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12
US Adjusted Retail Sales "Control Group" (m/m)
Next Week Preview: Economics
Source: US Census Bureau
• The provisional estimate for the headline of the
January’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
is expected to be released on Friday (14:55 GMT). The
last minute “fiscal cliff” deal could have had an impact
on sentiment. Moreover, gas prices have decreased
and equity prices rose. Nevertheless, the expiration of
the payroll tax cut is going to hit all working individuals
and could penalize consumer confidence;
• The Empire State Index is due Tuesday (13:30 GMT),
while the Philly Fed Index should be released Thursday
(15:00 GMT). Both survey could reflect the deal to
avert the “fiscal cliff”. However, business confidence in
early January will probably also take into account that
the debt ceiling stand-off is continuing;
• US Retail Sales will be announced on Tuesday (13:30
GMT). The ICSC chain stores sales suggest that
spending rose in December;
• The focus for the weak in the Euro-zone could be the
release of German GDP annual data for 2012.
Consensus expect it to print at 0.8% y/y, down from
3.0% in 2011.
Source: Conference Board; U. of Michigan Survey Research Center
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Consumer Confidence Indices
Conference Board (RHS) University of Michigan (LHS)
-5.1%
3.7%3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Germany: Annual Real GDP Growth
Source: German Federal Statistical Office
• The company reported Q4 2012 sales in line
with consensus. Polish LfL sales grew 6.4%. The
group opened 120 Biendronka stores in Q4
taking the total to 2125;
• The Portuguese earnings season will continue
with Galp’s trading update on January 21st.
Next Week Preview: Earnings season in Portugal and Government
Debt Issuance Calendar Jerónimo Martins announced Q4
2012 Trading Statement• Portugal will redeem €1.3bn of BT on Friday.
France and Spain will be the
highlights of the week
Source: Bloomberg, Companies information
Company Event Date
Galp Trading Update 21-Jan
Sonae Trading Update 23-Jan
Portucel FY12 Results 29-Jan
BPI FY12 Results 30-Jan
BES FY12 Results 5-Fev
Semapa FY12 Results 7-Fev
BCP FY12 Results 8-Fev After-Market
Galp FY12 Results 11-Fev Before-Market
Jerónimo Martins FY12 Results 27-Fev
Zon FY12 Results 27-Fev
Sonae Indústria FY12 Results 27-Fev
EDP Renováveis FY12 Results 28-Fev
Sonaecom FY12 Results 7-Mar
REN FY12 Results 7-Mar
Altri FY12 Results 8-Mar
Cofina FY12 Results 8-Mar
Sonae FY12 Results 13-Mar After-Market
Mota Engil FY12 Results 14-Mar
EDP FY12 Results 15-Mar After-Market
ESFG FY12 Results 15-Mar
Portugal Telecom FY12 Results 28-Mar
Banif FY12 Results n.a.
Next week's Selected Bonds and T-Bills Supply
Issue Country Date Amount Hour (GMT)
BTF Apr 2013 France 14-Jan €3.2-3.6bn
BTF Jun 2013 France 14-Jan €1.2-1.6bn
BTF Jan 2014 France 14-Jan €1.6-2bn
T-Bills Apr 2013 US 14-Jan $32bn
T-Bills Jul 2013 (new) US 14-Jan $28bn
Letras Jan 2014 Spain 15-Jan
Letras Jun 2014 Spain 15-Jan
T-Bills Feb 2013 US 15-Jan
Bund 15 Feb 2023 (new) Germany 16-Jan €5bn 10:30
Bonos 3.75% 31 Oct 2015 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
Bonos 4.50% 31 Jan 2018 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
Obligaciones 4.70% 30 Jul 2041 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
BTAN 2.50% 15 Jan 2015 France 17-Jan 09:50
OAT 3.75%25 Apr 2017 France 17-Jan €7-8bn 09:50
OAT 1.00% 25 May 2018 (new) France 17-Jan 09:50
OATei 0.25% 25 Jul 2018 France 17-Jan 10:50
OATi 1.30% 25 Jul 2019 France 17-Jan €1.3-1.7bn 10:50
OATei 1.85% 25 Jul 2027 France 17-Jan 10:50
Next week's Selected Bonds and T-Bills redemptions
Issues Country Date Amount Hour (GMT)
BTAN 3.75% France 12-Jan €17.7bn
BOT (3m) Italy 14-Jan €3bn
BOT (12m) Italy 14-Jan €8.5bn
BTF France 17-Jan €8bn
Letras Spain 18-Jan €5.6bn
BT Portugal 18-Jan €1.3bn
Source: Fincor
Next Week Preview: European and US Corporate CalendarCarrefour is expected to release
Q4 2012 sales on Thursday• Carrefour’s LfL sales growth (ex-fuel and calendar)
is expected to be negative for hypermarkets in
France. Will the Detroit Auto Show (January, 15th-
16th) be a catalyst for the european sector?
US: The Financial sector will
probably be the highlight • JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,
Bank of America and Citigroup will release
results this week;
• Intel and GE will also be closely followed by
investors.Country Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg)
Monday, 14 January
UK Taylor Wimpey PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 TW/ LN
Tuesday, 15 January
Switzerland Geberit AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 GEBN VX
UK Burberry Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 BRBY LN
UK Ashmore Group PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 12:00 ASHM LN
Austria Telecom Austria Capital Markets Day TKA AV
France Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 17:15 CO FP
Switzerland Lindt & Sprungli FY Trading Statement LISN SW
UK Michael Page International Q4 Trading Statement MPI LN
Sweden Hennes & Mauritz AB December 2012 Trading Update HMB SS
UK Rio Tinto PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update RIO LN
France Aeroports de Paris December 2012 Trading Update ADP FP
Germany Fraport AG December 2012 Trading Update FRA GR
Wednesday, 16 January
UK Experian PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 EXPN LN
Germany Metro AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 MEO GR
Denmark Chr Hansen Holding A/S Q1 2013 Earnings Release 07:00 CHR DC
UK Barratt Developments PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 08:00 BDEV LN
Thursday, 17 January
Netherlands Koninklijke Ahold NV Q4 2012 Trading Update 05:45 AH NA
France EADS 2012 year-end Airbus press conference EAD FP
Belgium Delhaize Group SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 DELB BB
Netherlands ASML Holding NV Y2012 Earnings Release 06:00 ASML NA
Switzerland SGS FY Results SGSN VX
France Carrefour SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:30 CA FP
UK African Barrick Gold PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 ABG LN
UK Mothercare Q3 Sales MTC LN
UK Aberdeen Asset Management PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update 08:00 ADN LN
France Remy Cointreau SA Q3 2013 Trading Update 08:30 RCO FP
France Accor SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 16:45 AC FP
UK Booker Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update BOK LN
UK Premier Oil PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update PMO LN
UK Associated British Foods PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update ABF LN
Source: Bloomberg
Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg)
Monday, 14 January
PPG Industries Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release PPG US
Tuesday, 15 January
Lennar Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening LEN US
Forest Laboratories Inc Q3 2013 Earnings Release Before Market Opening FRX US
Linear Technology Corp Q2 2013 Earnings Release LLTC US
Wednesday, 16 January
Charles Schwab Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening SCHW US
US Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening USB US
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 BK US
JPMorgan Chase & Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 JPM US
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:30 GS US
eBay Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close EBAY US
Thursday, 17 January
BlackRock Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening BLK US
UnitedHealth Group Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening UNH US
Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 FITB US
Bank of America Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 BAC US
Citigroup Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release 13:00 C US
Capital One Financial Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 21:05 COF US
Intel Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close INTC US
Friday, 18 January
General Electric Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening GE US
Johnson Controls Inc Q1 2013 Earnings Release 12:00 JCI US
Morgan Stanley Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:15 MS US
Schlumberger Ltd Q4 2012 Earnings Release SLB US
Consolidated Edison Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release ED US
State Street Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release STT US
Source: Bloomberg
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13
Acerinox vs. IBEX35 Index
Acerinox IBEX35 Index
1 Jan 2012 = 100
Next Week Preview: Lower Saxony Elections and Idea of the weekLower Saxony to hold elections
on January 20th
• The week will end with the state parliamentary
election in Lower Saxony, Germany’s fourth biggest
federal state, on Sunday, January 20th;
• It should be the last German state to go to the
polls ahead of the General Election at the end of
September;
• The state is governed by a CDU/FDP coalition since
2008, a replica of the current coalition at national
level;
• Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position at the national
level is still very strong, in contrast to her SPD rival.
Idea of the Week: Acerinox• The acquisition of ThyssenKrupp’s stainless steel
unit by Outokumpu shows that the
consolidation in the European sector is moving
forward;
• Acerinox (ACX SM) continues trying to reduce its
gearing;
• Capacity expansion in Malaysia will allow the
company to target new customers in the region;
• H2 2012 showed weaker than expected
conditions in both the US and European
Markets. A moderate restocking could support
the stock in Q1 2013.
Source: Infratest dimap Source: Bloomberg
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012
BES and Banco Popular Relative Performance
BES
Banco Popular
1 Jan 2010 = 100
Source: Bloomberg
Charts we are watching
• The ECB statement was more hawkish that expected.
Now, the market seems to believe that, unless there’s a
significant fall in sentiment, the ECB is unlikely to cut the
refi rate in the near-term. Moreover, 10-year sovereign
bond yields on the Euro periphery continue to fall. Both
factors have supported the Euro/USD exchange rate that
reached 1.3343 at the end of last week. But, with the
euro area economy expected to remain weak at the
beginning of 2013, a higher Euro/USD will not provide
much help to the gradual recovery that is expected later
in the year.
• Last week, BES has announced that it issued €500mn 5-
year bonds with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap +400bps.
Moreover, the bank is planning to issue further bonds
this year in order to reduce its reliance on ECB funding.
Banco Popular announced that it has issued €750mn 2.5-
year bonds with a 4.125% coupon at mid swap +362bps.
Both issues suggest the progressive reopening of
wholesale funding markets for Portuguese and Spanish
banks with a clear positive impact on both stock prices.Source: Bloomberg
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