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A New Era for Crew Recoveryat Continental Airlines

2002 Franz Edelman Award

Achievement in Operations Research

and the Management Sciences

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Speakers Anna White, Director of Crew Technology, Continental Airlines Dr. Julian Pachon, Operations Research Scientist, CALEB Technologies

Video Larry Kellner, President, Continental Airlines

Contributing Team Members Dr. Gang Yu, founder of CALEB Technologies; Jack G. Taylor Regents

Professor in Business at UT Austin Dr. Gao Song, O.R. Scientist, CALEB Technologies Dr. Michael Arguello, O.R. Scientist, CALEB Technologies Sandra McCowan, Software Engineer and Project Manager, CALEB

Technologies

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Continental -Where We Are Today

Belize City

Santo Domingo

Calgary

San Juan

Nassau

Guatemala CitySan Pedro SulaTegucigalpa

Guadalajara

Mexico CityPuerto Vallarta

IxtapaAcapulco

Leon Antigua

San Jose

San SalvadorManagua

CancunCozumel

Panama City

St. Maarten

Quito

Monterrey

Caracas

Aruba

Merida

Tampico

Veracruz

SaltilloTorreon

Chihuahua

Sapporo

Sendai

Nagoya Tokyo

OsakaFukuoka

Los Cabos

Toronto

Montreal

Bermuda

Guayaquil

Lima

Rio de Janeiro

Vancouver

Ottawa

Halifax

São Paulo

Niigata

Okayama

Quebec

Madrid

London

Frankfurt

Amsterdam

Birmingham

ShannonManchester

Brussels

GlasgowDublin

Paris

Rome

MilanLisbon

Zurich

San Luis Potosi

Aguascalientes

Puebla

Mazatlan

Bogota

Puerto Plata St. Thomas

Belo Horizonte

Seoul

GuamGuam

Taipei

Hong Kong

Yap

Majuro

Kwajalein

Denpasar

Saipan

Pohnpei

Kosrae

Honolulu

Truk

Cairns

Manila

Palau

HoustonHouston

Cleveland ClevelandNew YorkNew York

Hermosillo

Grand Cayman

Tel Aviv

Dusseldorf

Stansted

Aguadilla

Before Sep 2001: Serve 228 Destinations in 40 Countries

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Pacific (14%)

Newark (17%)Cleveland (14%)

Houston (5%)Europe (4%)

Latin America (2%)

Continental Smaller, But Maintains High Quality Product

Estimated Second Quarter 2002 vs. 2001

Data includes Continental Express

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95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Continental Industry

D.O

.T C

om

ple

tio

n %

Industry = Top 10 US Major Carriers*Non-weighted average; data excludes Sept 11-30

98.2%

97.3%

97.9%

97.2%

98.1%

96.7%

98.7%

97.7%

Exceptional Completion Factor

99.6%98.8%

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76.6%78.1%

82.2%83.5%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

1999 2000 2001 2002

Consistent Strong Operational Integrity

*September 2001 capacity reduction cancellations not included

% A

rriv

als

wit

hin

14

min

ute

s

D.O.T On-Time

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History Lesson - March 1993:

The Storm of the Century and Catalyst

for Change

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Continental Impact•Total Loss of Operational Control •Five Days to Recover Crews •Millions of Dollars in Losses•VERY Unhappy Customers

Continental Decision • Create Operations Task Force• Centralize Operations Data in a Common Database• Buy Best of Breed Real Time Decision Support Systems

Worst Blizzard to hit US since 1888 Affected 26 states, with 20 inches of snow in Southeast Caused $1 billion in damage Closed EWR airport for almost 2 days

It took days for Continental to locate all crewmembers

March 1993: Storm of the Century

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ResultVariables

Crew

Passengers

Aircraft

Operational Recovery

Flight Operations

Inflight

SOCC

Aircraft Maintenance

Airport Services

Customer Service

Reservations

Marketing

Revenue Management

Inputs

NewOperation

al Schedule

Cre

wS

olv

er a

nd

Op

sSo

lver

Rep

lan

N-times

One time

Irregular Ops

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Crew Recovery Projectat

Continental

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Original plan was to purchase an off-the-shelf system and customize for Continental No major airline had a system of this kind No software vendors had solved the problem O.R. scholars did not have the needed airline knowledge

CALEB Technologies had both the operations research expertise and the airline background to deliver what was needed

The CrewSolver Project at Continental

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MultipleCustomizedSolutions

Solution Request- User Constraints- What-if scenario- OpsSolver Solution

Real-time Disruptions- Cancellations- Delays- Diverts- Schedule Changes

Real-time Disruptions- Cancellations- Delays- Diverts- Schedule Changes

LegalityChecker

CrewSolverOptimization

Server

Crew Updatesvia the Web

Crew Updatesvia the Web

Updates to SOCC Systems

Operational Data- Crew Pairings- Aircraft Routes- Legality and Qualification Data

CrewSolver System Overview

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The Go Forward Plan and The CrewSolver System

Fly ToWin

- Top quartile margins

- Maximize yields and profits

- Maximize flights completed

- Minimize revenue loss

WorkingTogether

- Treat each other with dignity and respect

- Open communications

- Generate reliable flight crew schedule information quickly

- Preserve quality of life

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The Go Forward Plan and The CrewSolver System

FundTheFuture

- Control our destiny

- Reduce costs by leveraging technology

- Minimize crew recovery costs

- Reduce passenger changes

MakeReliabilityA Reality

- Reliable on-time flight schedule

- Maintain DOT performance

- Produce reliable crew recovery plan

- Minimize crew delays and cancellations

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CALEB and the Crew Recovery Problem

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When faced with disruptions including: Flight delays and cancellations Diversions Adding new flights Reassigning equipment types Sick crew Crew misconnects Crew legality issues

How do airlines get crew back to planned pairings in a timely manner? Minimize recovery costs while covering all flights Ensure crew qualifications and legalities Support quality of life objectives

The Crew Recovery Problem

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Minimize (all incremental pairing costs) + (deadhead costs) + (uncovered flight costs) + (cost of using reserves)

Subject to

Every scheduled flight should have at least one crew member for each required position (1)

Each crew member can be assigned to at most one associated pairing (2)

Optimization Model for Crew Recovery

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Novelty of Solution Techniques

Solution localization

Constraint localization

Cost characterization and prioritization

Multiple solutions

Partial solutions

Computational Experience

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Integration at Continental Airlines

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CrewSolver System Architecture

CrewSolverOptimization Server

Configuration Parameters

System Environment Variables

System Environment Variables

Message ServerMessage Server

MainframeMainframe SOC

Database

Static City File

Crew File

Socket

SharedMemoryMiddleware

FTP

Publish/Subscribe

Crew Client GUI

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FlightScheduling

System(mainframe)

CrewPairingSystem

(desktop)

ManpowerPlanningSystem

(desktop)

ScheduleSynchronization

System(workstation)

Day of Ops Flight SystemFOMS

(mainframe)

OpsSolver(workstation)

ARMS GUI(workstation)

SOCC Db(data store)

Day of Ops Crew SystemCMS

(mainframe)

CrewSolver(workstation)

COMS GUI(workstation)

SOCC Db(data store)

Proposed FlightSchedule

CommentsFinal Flight Schedule

FleetPlan

Final Flight Schedule

FlightScheduleUpdates

FlightScheduleUpdates

Final FlightSchedule and

Pairings

OperationalFlight Updates

Crew ScheduleUpdates

Web<Internet>

Kiosk<Intranet>

Cre

w S

ched

ule

Upd

ates

Ack

now

ledg

emen

t

Ack

now

ledg

emen

t

Cre

w S

ched

ule

Upd

ates

CMS: Crew Management SystemCOMS: Crew Operations Management SystemSOCC: System Operations Control CenterFOMS: Flight Operations Management SystemARMS: Aircraft Routing Management System

Automatic Data FeedManual Data Feed

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Web-based GUI

Delay Suggestions

N-way Swapping

Pairing Splitting

Reduced Memory Footprint

Greater User Control

Other Airline Implementations

CrewSolver System Enhancements

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Impact at Continental Airlines

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Other Major Airlines• Up to 3 days to recover • Unhappy customers• Unhappy crews

Continental with CrewSolver

• Less than 5 minutes to solve• Recovered by the next day• No crew complaints• Fewer reserves used

Nor’easter hit New York metropolitan area, worst since 1996 12/29/2000 35% Newark reduction for 12/30/00 = 112

cancellations 12/30/2000 Complete shut down of Newark hub = 113

cancellations 354 crews affected

Continental was back to normal operations in record time

Case Study: New Year’s Eve 2000-2001

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Continental’s CrewSolver • Ran scenarios Sunday night for Monday pre-cancellations• Able to wait from Noon until 7pm to modify flight schedule • Solved 141 flight cancellations affecting 500 crews in under 7 minutes• All crews rescheduled and notified by Tuesday morning• Solved again on Tuesday for new cancellations

“The Reluctant Storm”Saturday – “Biggest winter blast in 5 years”Sunday – “Forecasters expect massive snowstorm”Monday – “Tricky forecast for Philadelphia and New York”Tuesday – “Expecting 3”-6” of snow in New York”

Case Study: The Reluctant Storm, March 2001

Continental delayed recovery to minimize flight cancellations

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Houston Hub • 749 cancellations / 3 days• 442 crews impacted• Lack of crews

Continental CrewSolver • Recovery one day at a time• Crews repaired daily < 13 minutes• Reserve usage minimized

Tropical Storm Allison hits Houston June 7th thru June 9th 32” of rain, winds up to 50 knots, Houston declared a disaster

area Houston hub accounts for 30% of total flight schedule

operations Major crew base for both Pilots and Flight Attendants Corporate headquarters for Continental Airlines

Continental was able to continue system-wide operations

Case Study: Tropical Storm Allison, June 2001

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Repaired 5861 pairingsOver a 2 week window

Case Study: 9/11/2001

- Re-planned flight and crew schedule dozens of times - Used OpsSolver to recover aircraft and flight schedule- Exported OpsSolver solution to CrewSolver to recover crew pairings and schedules

Sept. 11-132001

- Reduced activity to 50-55% of scheduled flights using OpsSolver - 100% closure of DCA- Largest single CrewSolver scenario repaired 1600 pairings in 17 minutes

Sept. 14-162001

- Solved 20% scheduled reduction for the remainder of September- Rescheduled all flight crews over a 14-day period

ExtendedWindow

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19

% Delays of Major Airlines

Aided by CALEB’s recovery suite, Continental was able to recover faster than other airlines, reducing costs and lost revenue

CrewSolver in Practice September 2001

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A Word From Larry Kellner

President, Continental Airlines

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Larry Kellner

President, Continental Airlines

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Conclusion

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CrewSolver is integrated into the daily operations of Continental Airlines

Better, more comprehensive recovery decisions with respect to aircraft, crew, maintenance, and passengers

Recovery solutions in minutes or seconds compared to hours or days for a manual recovery

Continental Airlines saves one to five million dollars for average major disruptions using the CrewSolver system Fewer flight delays and cancellations due to crew unavailability Reduced crew pay liability Reduced hotel and per diem expenditures Reduced passenger re-accommodation costs Reduced usage of reserve crews

System Value and Impact

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